Countertrade

Abstract

Countertrade is a generic term for parallel business transactions linking sales contracts with agreements to purchase goods or services. Various forms of countertrade all have one common feature-reciprocity. Countertrade has been viewed as an inefficient and cumbersome way of doing business primarily because of problems associated with (1) Disposing of products accepted as part of the deal, (2) Quality variations and (3) Negotiation process and resulting increase in transaction costs. A review of the International Trade literature indicates that market imperfections (shortage of convertible currency, information asymmetry that may create the so-called lemon problem and moral hazard) provide a motivation for countertrade. This article looks at the economic rationalization for countertrade. Since the widespread existence of countertrade, particularly in North-South and in East-West trade, is somewhat of a puzzle, one explanation that is often proposed in the literature is that liquidity constraints might force firms to engage in countertrade (particularly barter). The article compares and contrasts two strategies facing the management team of a profit maximizing firm. The standard neoclassical mathematical model developed shows that countertrade strategy may be superior to standard money-mediated trade strategy when there is liquidity shortage. Therefore, countertrade (particularly, buy-back, counterpurchase and offset) may be a rational response to conditions that restrict standard trade. As such, countertrade can supplement standard money-mediated trade and contribute to the growth of international business.     

Trade creation and diversion revisited: Accounting for model uncertainty and natural trading partner effects

The effect of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on trade flows is subject to model uncertainty stemming from the diverse and even contradictory effects suggested by the theoretical PTA literature. The existing empirical literature has produced remarkably disparate results and the wide variety of empirical approaches reflects the uncertainty about the ‘correct’ set of explanatory variables that ought to be included in the analysis. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing PTA theories, we introduce Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to the PTA literature. Statistical theory shows that BMA successfully incorporates model uncertainty in linear regression analysis by minimizing the mean squared error, and by generating predictive distributions with optimal predictive performance. Once model uncertainty is addressed as part of the empirical strategy, we find strong evidence of trade creation, trade diversion, and open bloc effects. Our results are robust to a range of alternative empirical specifications proposed by the recent PTA literature. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Successful antitakeover defenses,top management turnover and stock prices

Previous studies have not addressed the question of whether successful targets of hostile bids adopt specific defenses, or whether a relation exists between the type of defense and subsequent management turnover. This study finds that sale or buyback of stock is the most common-and probably the most successful-form of defense employed by targets to defeat hostile bidders, and that stock buyback leads to management retrenchment in the post-defeat period. The management turnover announcement has no impact on the target stock price and appears to convey no new information to the market.     

Knowledge,technological convergence and economic growth: a dynamic panel data analysis of Middle East and North Africa and Latin America

Quality & Quantity - This paper aims to investigate the role of various knowledge indicators, such as research and development, information and communication technologies and trade, in the...     

A flexible adaptation of the WIOD database in a virtual laboratory

ABSTRACT

The World Input-Output Database provides a time series of world input–output tables (WIOTs) that have been used for example to understand the manifold effects of the increased integration of markets through international trade. In order to enhance the flexibility of research on global trade issues using WIOD, we implement the WIOT workflow in a collaborative, cloud-based virtual laboratory environment. We demonstrate that a lab-based adaptation of WIOD is able (a) to continuously create and update versions of the WIOTs in a timely, consistent, and cost-effective way, (b) to enhance original information with accompanying information on standard deviations, and (c) to enable flexible re-casting of the entire WIOT time series into user-specific geographical and sectoral classifications.     

Hierarchical reporting,aggregation, and information cascades

Aggregation is commonly associated with loss of information. In contrast, this paper shows that aggregation can actually enhance information down‐the‐road by deterring information cascades. In particular, when hierarchical tiers forward only aggregate recommendations rather than nitty‐gritty details, it increases the uncertainty faced by subsequent tiers. This makes individuals at higher levels more willing to rely on and convey their own views rather than simply rubber stamping suggestions from lower levels. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Managing dynamic epidemiological risks through trade

There is growing concern that trade, by connecting geographically isolated regions, unintentionally facilitates the spread of invasive pathogens and pests – forms of biological pollution that pose significant risks to ecosystem and human health. We use a bioeconomic framework to examine whether trade always increases private risks, focusing specifically on pathogen risks from live animal trade. When the pathogens have already established and traders bear some private risk, we find two results that run counter to the conventional wisdom on trade. First, uncertainty about the disease status of individual animals held in inventory may increase the incentives to trade relative to the disease-free case. Second, trade may facilitate reduced long-run disease prevalence among buyers. These results arise because disease risks are endogenous due to dynamic feedback processes involving valuable inventories, and markets facilitate the management of private risks that producers face with or without trade.     

Welfare Effects of Endogenous Information Acquisition and Disclosure in Duopoly Markets

Abstract

This paper investigates the interaction between firms' information acquisition decisions and disclosure of internally acquired information in a Cournot duopoly market under demand uncertainty. The main results are as follows. When the correlation between firms' demands is positive and sufficiently high, disclosure of information on demand uncertainty can enhance social welfare, given that the quality of firms' private information is constant. However, in the setting where firms' private information is endogenously determined, mandatory disclosure is not always desirable. This is because, when disclosure is mandated, firms acquire less precise information compared with the case where the acquired information is not disclosed; hence, their internal information environments are deteriorated. This can lead to unintended consequences such that disclosure regulation decreases social welfare.     

生产商回购合同与需求不确定

生产商回购合同已经被广泛看成一种渠道间成员共担风险的一种方式。在生产商回购合同中,生产商决定最优的批发价格ω和回购价格s。在给定ω,s的条件下,零售商决定向生产商最优的订货量Q,本文通过对生产商回购合同的分析,从而得出零售商的最优订货量以及生产商所采取的最优策略。同时给出了生产商使用回购合同的的条件以及分析了市场需求不确定对生产商和零售商的影响。     

Classification of intraday S&P500 returns with a Random Forest

Stock markets can be interpreted to a certain extent as prediction markets, since they can incorporate and represent the different opinions of investors who disagree on the implications of the available information on past and expected events and trade on their beliefs in order to achieve profits. Many forecast models have been developed for predicting the future state of stock markets, with the aim of using this knowledge in a trading strategy. This paper interprets the classification of the S&P500 open-to-close returns as a four-class problem. We compare four trading strategies based on a random forest classifier to a buy-and-hold strategy. The results show that predicting the classes with higher absolute returns, ‘strong positive’ and ‘strong negative’, contributed the most to the trading strategies on average. This finding can help shed light on the way in which using additional event outcomes for the classification beyond a simple upward or downward movement can potentially improve a trading strategy.     

Trade costs,regional inequality,and the Home-Market Effect

ABSTRACT

This paper develops an economic geography framework with positive trade costs in both manufacturing and traditional sectors, mobile skilled workers, and unequal shares of unskilled labour in regions. It shows that partial agglomeration always features the Home-Market Effect (HME) regardless of whether regions trade only the manufacturing good or both. Moreover, spatial factor mobility is significant for the HME to arise, while intersectoral mobility does not play a crucial role. Furthermore, a decrease in the traditional sector trade costs makes the HME weaker and increases the likelihood of full agglomeration in the larger region. Finally, the paper shows that a small departure from Cobb–Douglas upper-tier utility towards gross substitutability of manufacturing and traditional goods reinforces the HME, while the opposite holds for gross complementarity of goods.     

Revenue forecasting, budget setting and risk

The budget-making process can be viewed as a problem of decision making under uncertainty since revenues are unknown at the time the budget is written. Revenue forecasts become information for describing the uncertainty in revenue receipts, thereby allowing the decision maker to trade off desire for a larger budget against the uncertainty in revenues. A chance constraint decision model is used to model this process. Application of the model to evaluate alternative forecasting techniques is then demonstrated for several revenue sources used in Kansas City, Missouri.     

Adoption,diffusion, and public R&D

This paper studies the impact of public RD&D (Research, Development, and Demonstrations) on the market penetration of a new government-sponsored technology. First, the technology adoption behavior of a firm under uncertainty is reviewed. Secondly, the diffusion of the new technology in a competitive industry that benefits from learning-by-doing is analyzed. Numerical simulations are conducted to determine the effect that variations in government R&D policies have on the rate and level of market penetration. Productive R&D investments affect thelevel of diffusion and R&D demonstrations therate of diffusion.     

Information and trade sizes: The case of short sales

In this study, we examine short selling of NASDAQ stocks and observe that more information about future returns is contained in small short sales than in medium-sized and large short sales, thus supporting the idea that NASDAQ short sellers stealth trade. These results are robust to different subsamples of stocks with and without tradable options and stocks that are more likely to face binding borrowing constraints. Further, these findings are contrary to the results in Boehmer, Jones, and Zhang (2008) who find that large NYSE short sales contain the most information. Combined, our study supports the idea that NASDAQ's bid test is less restricting than the NYSE's uptick rule and therefore attenuates the likelihood of stealth trading (Diether, Lee, & Werner, 2009a).     

自贸区背景下海南现代物流与对外贸易耦合量化研究

从“海南自贸区(港)建设”战略、链接国家“一带一路”倡议视角出发,建立海南现代物流与对外贸易指标评估体系,根据协调发展度模型对海南2009-2018年现代物流和对外贸易发展的协调性进行测评。结果显示:海南现代物流综合发展指数高于对外贸易综合发展指数,海南对外贸易发展滞后于现代物流发展;海南现代物流与对外贸易发展逐渐呈协调发展趋势,二者协调发展水平不断提高。在此基础上提出强化国际物流协同建设、拓展对外贸易新业态与新模式等促进海南现代物流与对外贸易协调发展的建议。     

Correction of errors in Vetschera's (2004) model of behavioral uncertainty and investment

Modelling of behavioural uncertainty has been a concern for researchers for some time. This paper briefly reviews modelling related to uncertainty and the focuses on the model presented by Vetschera (2004). A model of decision behaviour has been developed in the paper with regard to investment and cooperation taking into account the uncertainty and lack of information. The model is an important contribution for it focuses on situations that are not usual to the normal principle agent problems. The present review however reveals some errors in the paper. Sometimes errors may appear editorial but the same errors may lead the interested reader or researcher to inappropriate paths, particularly those who may fail to follow an argument or comprehend the underlying meanings of the equations and analytical solutions. In this manner, further work on this important topic may be hindered if researchers accept forms as presented in the paper literally as facts to further work. The main contribution of this paper is that it presents the correct forms of the mathematical aspects and procedures of the Vetschera (2004) paper. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trade and product innovations as sources for productivity increases: an empirical analysis

Increases in total factor productivity (TFP) are commonly associated with technological innovations measured by the stock of R&D. Empirical evidence seems to corroborate this relationship. However, in trading countries like The Netherlands, productivity increases, even in industry, can also be the result of innovations in the way transactions are managed. These innovations reduce transaction costs and exploit the welfare gains from (further) international division of labour. Such innovations are only partly included in R&D data. Consequently there is not much attention for these ‘trade innovations’—as we label them—in policy. In an empirical analysis this paper compares the influence of trade innovations with the influence of the stock of R&D on TFP in The Netherlands. The regression results show that in this country trade innovations are as important for TFP as technological innovations which directly affect the efficiency of production, which we label ‘product innovations’.      

Choosing strategic responses to address emerging environmental regulations: size,perceived influence and uncertainty

How companies respond to impending regulations is a significant aspect of corporate strategy. Regulations, especially environmental regulations, are expanding quickly and increasingly important to firm success. The threat of impending environmental regulation forces companies to choose levels of strategic responses on a continuum from passive to active. Using practitioner oriented research and existing theoretical models of corporate response, this study finds that the type of strategic response is negatively related to size, positively related to state uncertainty and negatively related to effect/response uncertainty. Based on existing literature and the results of this study, the paper suggests that simplifying the uncertainty construct could lead to more definitive findings in future research. The study results also suggest that a curvilinear relationship may exist between managerial perception of influence and level of strategic response. Most importantly, the findings could have a significant impact on firm decision making regarding environmental investments. For example, it is hoped that firms will be able to use the findings of this study to further understand and anticipate their competitors' decisions. Practitioners may also benefit from the conclusions on uncertainty in that they may be able to more cleanly parse the types of uncertainty immersed in impending environmental regulations. Finally, firms may be better able to understand decisions by their own managers and their competitors' managers in terms of their perceived influence over the regulatory process. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

The federal funds market,excess reserves,and unconventional monetary policy

Following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, interbank borrowing and lending dropped, whereas reserve holdings of depository institutions skyrocketed, as the Fed injected liquidity into the U.S. banking sector. This paper introduces bank liquidity risk and limited market participation into a real business cycle model with ex ante identical financial intermediaries and shows, in an analytically tractable way, how interbank trade and excess reserves emerge in general equilibrium. Investigating the role of the federal funds market and unconventional monetary policy for the propagation of aggregate real and financial shocks, I find that federal funds market participation is irrelevant in response to standard supply and demand shocks, whereas it matters for “uncertainty shocks”, i.e. mean-preserving spreads in the cross-section of liquidity risk. Liquidity injections by the central bank can absorb the effects of financial shocks on the real economy, although excess reserves might increase and federal funds might be crowded out, as a side effect.