Managed Floating as a Monetary Policy Strategy

Although there seems to be a broad consensus among economists that purely floating or completely fixed exchange rates (the so-called corner solutions) are the only viable alternatives of exchange rate management, many countries do not behave according to this paradigm and adopt a strategy within the broad spectrum of exchange rate regimes that is limited by the two corner solutions. Many of these intermediate regimes are characterized by significant foreign exchange market interventions and a certain degree of exchange rate flexibility with non-preannounced exchange rate targets. While academic research in this area usually concentrates on some specific aspects of intermediate regimes (such as the effectiveness of interventions or institutional aspects), managed floating has rarely been analyzed as a comprehensive monetary policy strategy. In this paper, we present a monetary policy framework in which central banks simultaneously use the exchange rate and the interest rate as operating targets of monetary policy. We explain the mechanics of foreign exchange market interventions and sterilization and we explain why a central bank has an interest of controlling simultaneously the two operating targets. We derive the monetary policy rules for the two operating targets from a simple open economy macro model in which the uncovered interest parity condition and the monetary conditions index play a central role.     

Optimal monetary policy rules,financial amplification,and uncertain business cycles

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in the presence of ‘uncertainty’, time-variation in cross-sectional dispersion of firms׳ productive performance. Using a model with financial market imperfections, the results suggest that (i) optimal policy is to dampen the strength of financial amplification by responding to uncertainty (at the expense of creating mild degree of fluctuations in inflation). (ii) Higher uncertainty makes the welfare-maximizing planner more willing to relax financial constraints. (iii) Credit spreads are a good proxy for uncertainty. Hence, a non-negligible response to credit spreads – together with a strong anti-inflationary policy stance – achieves the highest aggregate welfare possible.     

Optimal monetary policy under incomplete markets and aggregate uncertainty: A long-run perspective

This paper examines the role of monetary policy in an environment with aggregate risk and incomplete markets. In a two-period overlapping-generations model with aggregate uncertainty, optimal monetary policy attains the ex-ante Pareto optimal allocation. This policy aims to stabilize the savings rate in the economy by changing real returns of nominal bonds via variation in expected inflation. Optimal expected inflation is procylical and on average higher than without uncertainty. Simple inflation targeting rules closely approximate the optimal monetary policy.     

Optimal interest-rate rules and inflation stabilization versus price-level stabilization

This paper compares the properties of interest-rate rules such as simple Taylor rules and rules that respond to price-level fluctuations (called Wicksellian rules) in a basic forward-looking model. By introducing appropriate history dependence in policy, Wicksellian rules perform better than optimal Taylor rules in terms of welfare, robustness to alternative shock processes, and are less prone to equilibrium indeterminacy. A simple Wicksellian rule augmented with a high degree of interest rate inertia resembles a robustly optimal rule, i.e., a monetary policy rule that implements the optimal plan and that is also completely robust to the specification of exogenous shock processes.     

Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis

This study compares a central bank’s leaning against the wind approach with a mix of monetary and macroprudential policies under parameter uncertainty in an estimated DSGE model with two financial frictions. We show that uncertainty of the economic environment is an essential constituent in properly designing macroprudential policy. Although coordination between monetary and macroprudential policies minimizes the policymakers’ Bayesian risk, coordination and non-coordination risks threaten the goals of both authorities. The former describes the situation where the authorities partly resign from implementing the monetary policy objectives to stabilize macroprudential risk. The latter is when conducting a non-coordinated macroprudential policy induces higher total Bayesian risk than when only the central bank minimizes the expected total welfare loss. The robust Bayesian macroeconomic rules show that when financial shocks shrink the banks’ or entrepreneurial net worth, a contractionary macroprudential policy should be combined with an expansionary monetary policy. However, if capital adequacy ratio or risk shocks strike the economy, such a conflict in macroeconomics policy instruments disappears, thus synchronizing both policies.     

美国与中国货币政策工具选择的差异分析

综合近十年美国与中国在货币政策运用方面的表现,文章认为存在着注重利率的调节和注重准备金率的调节两种不同取向。文中对这种差异从利率市场化、货币政策目标及金融市场发展程度三个层面分析,并分析两国在货币政策使用的效果,最后提出我国货币政策的调整应该依据具体的经济情况、加强中国利率市场化以及建立风险防范机制三点建议。     

Least squares learning and the US Treasury bill rate

Understanding how agents formulate their expectations about Fed behavior is important for market participants because they can potentially use this information to make more accurate estimates of stock and bond prices. Although it is commonly assumed that agents learn over time, there is scant empirical evidence in support of this assumption. Thus, in this paper we test if the forecast of the three month T-bill rate in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is consistent with least squares learning when there are discrete shifts in monetary policy. We first derive the mean, variance and autocovariances of the forecast errors from a recursive least squares learning algorithm when there are breaks in the structure of the model. We then apply the Bai and Perron (1998) test for structural change to a forecasting model for the three month T-bill rate in order to identify changes in monetary policy. Having identified the policy regimes, we then estimate the implied biases in the interest rate forecasts within each regime. We find that when the forecast errors from the SPF are corrected for the biases due to shifts in policy, the forecasts are consistent with least squares learning.     

Unconventional government debt purchases as a supplement to conventional monetary policy

In response to the Great Financial Crisis, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and many other central banks have adopted unconventional monetary policy instruments. We investigate if one of these, purchases of long-term government debt, could be a valuable addition to conventional short-term interest rate policy even if the main policy rate is not constrained by the zero lower bound. To do so, we add a stylised financial sector and central bank asset purchases to an otherwise standard New Keynesian DSGE model. Asset quantities matter for interest rates through a preferred habitat channel. If conventional and unconventional monetary policy instruments are coordinated appropriately then the central bank is better able to stabilise both output and inflation.     

财政货币政策、房价波动与宏观杠杆——基于信心传导机制的分析

利用市场主体信心的微观调查数据,借助仿真情景模拟下的反事实实验方法对信心能否在财政政策和货币政策调控杠杆与房价的过程中发挥作用进行实证分析,而后利用TVP-VAR模型对其内在机制展开深入探讨。研究表明,当信心被虚拟冲击抵消后,政策效果与基准结果呈现明显分化。即信心能够显著影响财政货币政策对杠杆与房价的作用效果,且经进一步实证分析得知信心正向影响于房价、负向影响于宏观杠杆。因此,政府在实施政策调控时,应注意市场预期的引导,在借助信心渠道强化房价调控政策效果的同时,也要关注信心对杠杆调控政策效果的干扰,并注意政策制定的连贯性与稳定性,以及财政货币政策的协调搭配。     

货币渠道与信贷渠道的比较研究——基于1994年至2011年季度数据

货币政策传导机制素有货币渠道和信贷渠道之分.我国GDP受到货币供应量和贷款余额的共同影响,在两个标准差的货币政策变量冲击下,贷款余额对我国GDP的影响大于货币供应量,而随着时间的推移,货币渠道的影响在逐渐加大,信贷渠道的影响则相对减弱.     

Optimal interest rate stabilization in a basic sticky-price model

This paper studies optimal monetary policy with the nominal interest rate as the single policy instrument. Firms set prices in a staggered way without indexation and real money balances contribute separately to households’ utility. The optimal deterministic steady state under commitment is the Friedman rule—even if the importance assigned to the utility of money is small relative to consumption and leisure. We approximate the model around the optimal steady state as the long-run policy target. Optimal monetary policy is characterized by stabilization of the nominal interest rate instead of inflation stabilization as the predominant principle.     

The policy mix in the US and EMU: Evidence from a SVAR analysis

We use a SVAR approach to the effects of fiscal and monetary policies, as well as their interactions (policy mix) for the US and the Euro Area (EMU). Overall, our results show that these two cases are different from each other. First, while in the case of the US there is evidence of Keynesian monetary policy, the same is not true in the case of the EMU. Second, considering the effects of the global economic and financial crisis, there is evidence of non-Keynesian fiscal policy in the case of the EMU (expansionary fiscal consolidation), while it does not hold in the case of the US. Third, there is evidence supporting the traditional inverse relationship between monetary policy interest rates and inflation in the case of the US, whereas in the case of the EMU there is a price puzzle (frequent in SVAR studies). Fourth, the baseline model seems to be robust in the case of the US, when considering the effects of the economic and financial crisis 2007–2009, while the opposite holds in the case of the EMU. However, in both cases, the policies seem to act as complements. Another similarity appears when analysing the relationship between public spending and taxation, where there is evidence supporting a fiscal retrenchment.     

Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence

This paper gives a comprehensive review of the literature on the interaction between real stock returns, inflation, and money growth, with a special emphasis on the role of monetary policy. This is an area of research that has interested monetary and financial economists for a long time. Monetary economists have been interested in the question whether money has any effect on real stock prices, while financial economists have investigated whether equity is a good hedge against inflation. Empirical studies show that money can be helpful in predicting future stock returns. Empirical evidence also suggest that equity is not a good hedge against inflation in the short run but may be so in the long run. The short-run negative relation between stock returns and inflation can easily be explained by theoretical models. If the central bank conducts a countercyclical monetary policy this will result in a negative relation between inflation and stock returns, while if it conducts a procyclical policy we could observe a positive relation. According to both theoretical and empirical studies investors receive an inflation risk premium for holding equity.     

金融危机背景下美联储的非常规货币政策操作

面对金融危机，关联储不仅非常规地使用传统货币政策工具，而且还采取大量激进的非常规措施，通过购买各种证券向市场注入流动性以及运用信息沟通引导市场预期降低长期借贷成本的方式缓解金融市场紧缩局面。非常规货币政策是应对非常时期的非常措施，随着经济的复苏，各国经济刺激政策如何寻找安全退出路径是这一时期全球央行的主要任务。     

货币区建设与货币政策的独立性：一个分析框架

美国次贷危机引发了全球性金融危机,这凸显了以美国为核心的“金融资本主义模式”和以美元为核心的国际货币金融体系的制度性缺陷,改革现行的以美元为核心的国际货币金融体系势在必行,建立货币区是较为现实的选择。但在现行货币政策框架下,货币区不可避免会出现“三元悖论”困境。本文提出的贷款准备金政策框架模型,能够解决货币区在保证其内在要求的资本自由流动和汇率稳定基本前提下,区内各个成员保持货币政策的独立性问题。     

货币供应量对我国房地产市场的溢出效应——基于DSGE模型的仿真分析

随着房地产市场与资本市场以及实体经济的关联度愈发紧密,探究货币供应量对房地产市场的溢出效应对于未来提高货币政策传导效率、促进经济平稳运行有着现实意义。通过构建包含房地产中间厂商的DSGE模型,探求货币供应量对房地产市场的影响机制与影响程度,为此在模型中引入货币冲击的外生冲击变量,以更好地模拟现实经济运行机制。仿真分析结果发现,货币供应量不直接影响房地产市场,主要通过利率水平下降与物价水平上升等传导路径对房地产市场产生正向冲击,并且这一间接影响期限短、程度深。为了促进房地产市场的健康发展,以研究结论为现实指导,从控制货币供应量、开发多样化金融产品和加强境外资金流入管理三方面提出针对房地产市场的监管策略。     

Long-term interest rates,risk premia and unconventional monetary policy

We study two kinds of unconventional monetary policies: announcements about the future path of the short-term rate and long-term nominal interest rates as operating instruments of monetary policy. We do so in a model where the risk premium on long-term debt is, in part, endogenously determined. We find that both policies are consistent with unique equilibria, that, at the zero lower bound, announcements about the future path of the short-term rate can lower long-term interest rates through their impact both on expectations and on the risk premium and that long-term interest rate rules perform as well as, and at times better than, conventional Taylor rules. With simulations, we show that long-term interest rate rules generate sensible dynamics both when in operation and when expected to be applied.     

Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state

Accounting for the uncertainty in real-time perceptions of the state of the economy is believed to be critical for monetary policy analysis. We investigate this claim through the lens of a New Keynesian model with optimal discretionary policy and partial information. Structural parameters are estimated using a data set that includes real-time and ex post revised observations spanning 1965–2010. In comparison to a standard complete information model, our estimates reveal that under partial information: (i) the Federal Reserve demonstrates a significant concern for stabilizing the output gap after 1979, (ii) the model׳s fit with revised data improves, and (iii) the tension between optimal and observed policy is smaller.     

Macroeconomic and financial stability in a monetary union: The case of Lithuania

In this paper, we study the implications of macroprudential policies in a monetary union for macroeconomic and financial stability. For this purpose, we develop a two-country monetary union new Keynesian general equilibrium model with housing and collateral constraints, to be calibrated for Lithuania and the rest of the euro area. We consider two different scenarios for macroprudential policies: one in which the ECB extends its goals to also include financial stability and a second one in which a national macroprudential authority uses the loan-to-value ratio (LTV) as an instrument. The results show that both rules are effective in making the financial system more stable in both countries, and especially in Lithuania. This is because the financial sector in this country is more sensitive to shocks. We find that an extended Taylor rule is indeed effective in reducing the volatility of credit, but comes with a cost in terms of higher inflation volatility. The simple LTV rule, on the other hand, does not compromise the objective of monetary policy. This reinforces the “Tinbergen principle”, which argues that there should be two different instruments when there are two different policy goals.     

Input–output interactions and optimal monetary policy

This paper deals with the implications of factor demand linkages for monetary policy design in a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. Part of the output of each sector serves as a production input in both sectors, in accordance with a realistic input–output structure. Strategic complementarities induced by factor demand linkages significantly alter the transmission of shocks and amplify the loss of social welfare under optimal monetary policy, compared to what is observed in standard two-sector models. The distinction between value added and gross output that naturally arises in this context is of key importance to explore the welfare properties of the model economy. A flexible inflation targeting regime is close to optimal only if the central bank balances inflation and value added variability. Otherwise, targeting gross output variability entails a substantial increase in the loss of welfare.