巨灾风险证券产品与监管问题

证券化可以在多方面解决再保险市场的无效率,并能够把风险转移给更大更广泛的资本市场。文章分析了国际上主流的巨灾风险连结证券的功能和特点以及与其有关的监管、会计及税收问题。学者们对风险融资方案的讨论表明,巨灾债券和其他风险融资解决方案的监管和会计处理阻碍了市场的增长。然而,有业内专家认为,监管和会计问题在现阶段不会造成对市场的实质阻碍。     

中国资产证券化现状浅析

我国的资产证券化发展起步较为滞后,从2005年才开始真正发行资产支持证券(ABS).随着政府监管放松,2013年以来我国的资产证券化市场取得了显著发展.纵观各发达国家的金融市场发展,我国的资产证券化市场虽发展迅速但也存在着诸多缺陷.为了实现资产证券化筹融资和分散风险的功能,我们仍需要在保证资产证券化市场稳步发展的前提下加强法律框架建设、完善监管体制,同时不断改进产品设计,吸引更多不同投资者进入证券化市场.     

我国发行洪水巨灾债券的可行性和运作机制研究

我国是世界上洪水灾害多发的国家之一,由此所造成的财产和人员损失逐年上升。我国政府部门(如财政部)以及商业保险机构可以借鉴国外巨灾债券发行的成功经验,通过发行针对特定地区洪水灾害的巨灾债券,将洪水风险转移到容量更大的金融市场,增强抵御巨灾风险的能力。文章通过回顾国内外巨灾债券理论和运作情况,结合我国洪水灾害历史数据的分析,探讨我国发行洪水巨灾债券的可行性,并在发行主体、发行渠道提出具体运作思路。     

以市政建设作为资产证券化突破口的可行性分析

我国资产证券化起步相对较晚，早期可以追溯到1992年。三亚市将800亩土地作为发行标的物，以地产销售和存款利息收入作为投资者收益来源，发行了2亿元地产投资券。此后，中国远洋运输总公司、中集集团等成功开展了一些离岸资产证券化项目，但这些只是个案实践，我国真正的资产证券化是从银行信贷资产起步的。1997年，人民银行颁布《特种金融债券托管回购办法》，使发行不良资产支持的债券成为可能。2000年，中国建设银行和中国工商银行成为住房贷款证券化试点单位，表明资产证券化得到政府认可。2004年，《全国银行间债券市场债券交易流通审核规则》公布实施为资产证券化产品流通扫清障碍。2005年4月20日，人民银行和银监会正式颁布《信贷资产证券化试点管理办法》，以建设银行及国家开发银行作为试点单位，发行的证券通过全国银行间同业债券交易市场进行交易，主要由银行、证券行、基金公司等指定机构吸纳。2005年12月15日，国开行和建行分别成功发行了41．78亿元的ABS债券和29．27亿元的MBS债券（mortgage based securities，缩写MBS，即抵押贷款债权证券化，资产证券化的一种）。2006年4月，国开行再次发行57．29亿元的ABS债券。2006年6月，国务院同意遵循谨慎推进原则，审慎扩大试点规模。     

寿险业债券化有效性的实证分析

寿险业债券化的目的是为了减少融资成本和监管成本,转移分散定期死亡寿险产品中的死亡风险和养老金、退休金产品中的长寿风险。持续期价值债券化、准备金债券化和风险转移债券化是寿险业三种主要的债券化方式。死亡风险债券是实务中比较常见的寿险业债券化产品,其结构非常类似于巨灾风险债券。虽然从理论上说,死亡风险债券能够增加投资者的投资组合效率,但是实证结果表明,保险风险债券化产品由于交易成本方面的因素而难以给发行公司带来预期收益。尽管如此,未来通过债券化将资本市场与保险市场联系起来的做法仍是历史的发展趋势。     

金融强粤战略选择：构建南方（中小企业）债券交易中心

与上海、北京等全国金融中心相比,广东应选择特色金融强粤道路。广东可依靠市场机制完善,民营经济发达、中小企业发展迅速的优势,先行先试构建南方（中小企业）债券交易中心,在突破债券融资瓶颈的基础上,通过整合债券发行市场,创新中小企业债券,实现中小企业债券组合等来完善拓宽中小企业债券融资途径。为此,短期须降低债券市场准入门槛,控制债券市场风险;长期须完善二级交易市场,信息披露监管制度,投资者保护制度。     

创新保险风险证券化研究

该文在分析我国创新保险行业现状的基础上,针对未来可能出现的创新保险巨额赔付问题,提出对创新保险产品进行证券化、利用资本市场来分散这些风险的见解,并以创新保险风险债券为突破口提出创新保险风险证券化的对策建议。     

我国地方政府债券定价机制研究——以发行利率影响因素为视角

我国新修订的《中华人民共和国预算法》解除了对地方政府发债的法律限制,使地方政府债券发行规模迅速扩大.发行利率是地方政府债券发行的核心问题之一,但从我国地方政府债券的发行情况来看,其发行利率对政府信用风险体现不足,进而引起了价格扭曲和资源错配.本文的研究结果显示,在地方政府债券发行利率形成的过程中确实存在利率抑制现象;债券的发行规模、发行期限、市场流动性、地方政府的财政收入与经济结构,以及地方政府债务规模等因素对发行利率均有显著影响.本文旨在分析地方政府债券发行的利率抑制现象及地方政府债券发行利率的影响因素,以期为我国地方政府债券体制的完善、控制债务风险以及降低融资成本提供参考.     

巨灾债券在我国发展面临的问题

1.法律及监管。尽管我国法律《防洪法》及《防震减灾法》均明确表示,国家鼓励并扶持开展相关保险业务。但我国对在金融行业"分业经营"的监管政策下,采用证券化方式解决巨灾风险问题,仍然存在巨大的法律屏障。由于风险证券化介于保险与资本市场中间的边缘性质,法律适用的困难广泛存在。主要的问题集中在SPV的法律地位、风险证券化的会计准则、税收政策等方面。     

中国债券市场新债定价研究

债券向来被认为是一种风险较低、收益稳定的投资对象,但是如果其定价出现偏差,一样会带来较高的风险.目前研究债券定价的文献大多数都集中在二级市场债券流通价格的估计上,而债券在发行时价格的合理与否却鲜有人关注,以至于某些券种在上市后的价格与发行时相比有较大的波动.文章着重研究不同种类的债券在一级市场上发行定价以及在二级市场上市的合理价格等问题,应用现金流贴现的思想,结合不同种类债券的特点,介绍几种定价模型,对不同定价方法在我国债券市场上应用的优缺点进行分析,并结合分析结果提出几点提高定价准确性的建议.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

海岛地区产业演替及资源基础分析--以舟山群岛为例

改革开放以来,舟山市产业构成发生了显著变化,其经济发展过程可以划分为三个阶段。1992年前,是以产业结构渔业占绝对地位的单一结构阶段;1993—1998年,以旅游业为主的第三产业快速发展阶段;上世纪末以来,又进入了新一轮的经济发展时期,即工业产值比重快速增加阶段。根据海岛的自然资源基础和特点,在新世纪的经济发展过程中,舟山市应定位为生态型的港口旅游城市。以港口及临港工业为主导,以海岛旅游和海洋经济为特色,大力发展第二产业和第三产业。海岛地区的主导产业应体现海岛资源优势及区位优势,以集群性环保型产业为主。同时由于海岛地区淡水资源缺乏,主导产业也应着重选择低耗水型产业。     

风险视角下企业治理结构和研发创新——基于委托代理模型的研究

本文基于委托代理模型,从风险的视角研究企业治理结构对研发创新能力的影响。本文构建了一个包含创新活动的委托代理模型进行理论分析,利用动态DEA 模型测算创新能力,并使用2015-2018年我国上市制造业企业数据进行实证检验。实证部分检验了理论结论:委托代理问题不利于企业提升研发创新能力,且客观风险和主观风险厌恶会加剧该负面影响。基于此,本文认为上市企业应根据企业自身研发活动特点有针对性地改善企业治理结构,提出了适当延长代理人任期、推动股权激励计划、提升代理人的风险承担能力等建议。