炫耀性消费影响家庭生育决策吗

炫耀性消费现象在中国越来越普遍,基于此本文研究炫耀性消费对家庭生育决策的影响。首先,构建三期世代交叠模型进行理论分析,结果显示,炫耀性消费对生育子女数量呈负向影响;其次,采用中国综合社会调查(CGSS2015)数据进行实证检验,生育子女数用理想生育子女数代替。结果显示,尽管炫耀性消费对理想生育子女数影响较小,但以不同指标衡量的炫耀性消费都对理想生育子女数存在显著负向影响,其中,在1980年后出生的人群中炫耀性消费对理想生育子女数负向影响更大。因此,若能降低物质攀比、减少炫耀性消费比重,则将会对生育率的回升产生积极影响。     

“全面二孩”政策下兰州市育龄妇女的二孩生育意愿及影响因素研究

为了解全面二孩政策下兰州市育龄妇女的二孩生育意愿并探究其影响因素,文章以兰州市已育一孩的育龄妇女(18～49岁)为研究对象,采用卡方检验分析方法,结果表明:兰州市育龄妇女的平均理想子女数为1.87个,不同年龄、户籍、婚姻状况、已婚年限、家庭类型、一孩年龄、子女主要照料者的育龄妇女的理想子女数差异均具有统计学意义;对现有子女数满意度相对较高。夫妇共同意愿、一孩孤独感、国家政策支持成为育龄妇女生育二孩的主要原因;育龄妇女不愿生育二孩的原因主要有孩子没人照顾、家庭经济压力太大、优生优育的思想、工作压力大。     

耐用品理论研究综述

耐用品是指能够在多个时期内提供效用的产品，它同时具有资产和一般非耐用消费品的特性。由于一些耐用品，如汽车、房屋等在家庭财富中占有很大比重，所以对这些耐用品的消费影响到整个家庭消费和储蓄分配，影响到对其他非耐用品的消费。另外，作为一种资产，耐用品消费的利率弹性较大；并由于耐用品提供效用的持续性，消费者可以根据经济的景气状况调整对耐用品购买或更新时间。     

房价对家庭债务和财富分布的影响：理论机制与应对策略

当前住房和房贷分别是中国家庭资产和负债的主要构成部分,那么房价如何影响家庭债务和财富分布?本文基于动态一般均衡框架对这一问题进行了系统研究,结果表明：信贷驱动型房价上涨会产生两方面影响。一方面会使部分具有购房能力家庭通过配置房产跃升为财富水平更高家庭,增加负债家庭中高收入群体比重,促进家庭债务和财富分布结构优化。另一方面,会提高新增购房家庭配置房产难度并引发购房家庭中低收入群体债务扩张的乘数效应,降低其财富分配权重,抑制家庭债务和财富分布结构优化。数值模拟结果表明,后者的作用效果更强。收入驱动型和需求驱动型房价上涨能够提高购房家庭中低收入群体的财富分配权重,起到改善家庭债务和财富分布结构的作用。政策应对方面,“家庭负债收入比”可以作为区分房贷扩张“好”与“坏”的信号变量,盯住其对房贷供给进行动态监管,在一定程度上既能抑制具有潜在金融风险的“坏”房贷繁荣,也能保障家庭用于改善资产状况和提高效用水平的“好”房贷需求。     

生育支持、生育率与经济增长

本文在内生化隔代抚养的世代交叠模型中引入儿童津贴和公共托育服务，考察生育支持对生育率和经济增长的影响。研究发现，生育支持结构偏向儿童津贴会降低生育率和促进经济增长，加大生育支持力度能够提高生育率，但其对经济增长的影响取决于生育支持结构。当生育支持结构偏向公共托育服务时，生育支持力度与经济增长率呈反向关系，反之，二者呈正向关系。当前经济社会条件下，伴随生育支持力度的加大，合理调整生育支持结构可以实现生育水平提升与经济持续增长的“双赢”。     

家庭财富的转移效用

家庭财富转移是非常重要的经济现象，是我国农村养老保障的主要形式。本文采用贝克尔(Gary S．Becker)式经济分析方法，建立了家庭利他模型，探讨了家庭财富转移的效用。结果表明，在家庭中，愿意将自身财富转移给他人的利他行为比只考虑自身财富增加而不考虑对他人转移的利己行为更能增加自身效用。     

家庭生育选择行为影响因素测度及经济分析——基于离散选择经济计量模型分析视角

我国生育选择特征表现在:对子女数量的追求由多变少、男孩与女孩相比的效用优势正逐步消失、农村家庭正从生育行为转向教育行为。教育和职业对生育模式的选择影响最大,其次是年龄和婚姻状态。基于分析结果,笔者认为,促进人力资本的教育投资、消除收入分配与就业之间的差距、建立公平的社会保障制度等,将有利于强化计划生育政策的积极影响。     

延迟退休年龄、代际收入转移与劳动力供给增长

本文在我国计划生育政策放松、家庭内部存在代际收入转移和家庭生育时表现出数量和质量的替代关系的背景下,利用统一增长理论研究了延迟退休年龄对劳动力供给的长期影响。文章提出并检验了家庭代际收入转移程度受经济因素影响的假设,发现延迟退休年龄通过这一渠道影响了家庭生育时数量和质量的替代关系,对劳动力供给增长的影响方向取决于父母对子女数量和质量的相对重视程度。如果相对于质量,父母对子女数量的重视程度较小,那么延迟退休年龄将降低劳动力供给数量的增长率,提高质量的增长率。反之亦然。这意味着评估延迟退休年龄在长期下是否有助于缓解劳动力供给短缺,不宜只关注于数量或质量一个维度变化,而应综合二者可能存在的异向变动。     

商业银行新型APP设计和营销推广

<正>新时代人民生活水平提升,家庭经济水平能够支持抚育更多的子女,但在实际生活中,为了保障子女未来的生活、教育等的良好条件,家庭仍需考虑未来经济风险。商业银行与居民生活息息相关,作为金融体系中重要的一环,在新家庭结构背景下也需谋求新发展,适应育有多个子女家庭的需要。因此,本文讨论了商业银行在新的育儿背景下可以发布的新型APP,并对此做了可行性等营销推广分析。     

贝克尔“量质权衡”人口论刍议——基于家计金融扩张与家庭资产负债表衰退“合成谬误”视角

人口再生产作为家庭再生产最重要的“资产建设”科目,具备“储蓄”“保险”及“期货”等多重家庭金融资产含义。子女后代从家庭私有逐步成为国家和社会公共产品,生儿育女这一底层家计资产的“金融化”趋势紧随其后。生育行为“养儿防老”的社会功能被家计金融进一步弱化,金融虚拟财富对老年生活质量的保障功能愈加重要,但家计金融无法从本质上替代“养儿防老”。面对少子老龄化诱发的金融市场动荡,金融体系的“膨胀-衰退”周期与人口通缩密切关联,防范各层级资产负债表衰退,东亚邻国的“合成谬误”历史教训值得借鉴反思。     

Son preference,children’s gender and parents’ time allocation: evidence from China

This article investigates the effect of children’s gender on parents’ time allocation in developing countries due to the long-existing tradition of son preference. A collective model generates predictions concerning the impact of the birth of sons on family behaviour when son preference is treated as a premium in the father’s utility function. Using data from China, I show that, with more sons instead of daughters, the time spent by both men and women on housework rises, while men have to increase their work time in the labour market and women can reduce theirs. The results are consistent with theoretical predictions and are robust for use in further tests. For the possible endogeneity of children’s gender, I use the law forbidding the use of ultrasound-B to reveal the gender of a foetus as instrumental variables as the identification strategy.     

Public good,collective action and financial regulation

The economy‐wide liberalization reforms implemented from the 1980s onwards in major capitalist economies had deep impact on financial markets. Public financial regulation has been replaced by self‐regulation, financial innovations proliferated and gave rise to many diversified and complex speculative operations that financialized most economic decisions and actions. Recurrent instabilities and crises became common ground in advanced as well as in emerging market economies and converged on the global systemic crisis in 2007–08, notwithstanding the efficient market doctrine that kept supporting financial liberalization. This crisis raised concerns about the relevance of market‐based financial regulation with regard to the systemic viability of capitalist economies and brought forward the central role of financial regulatory framework in the sustainable working of open societies. This article considers financial stability as a collective action problem through the lens of the literature on the commons and public goods. It seeks to contribute to the development of a relevant paradigm of collective action in the provision of a particular public good, financial stability, through a particular public action, financial regulation. After recalling the broad outlines of the evolution of financial markets and the institutional environment in the last decades, the monetary and financial characteristics of a capitalist economy are presented. The monetary and financial structure turns out to be a public infrastructure. The criticalness of financial transactions for the whole economic society together with the non‐rivalrousness and non‐excludability of financial stability determine the very publicness of the latter. The continuity of financial relations fundamentally needs a viable financial system. However, this is a complex issue as it falls into the classical opposition “private vs public” and calls for a collective action framework consistent with the characteristics of a financialized economy. This article argues that financial stability cannot be ensured through individual‐decision‐based market relations because of the endogenous limits of individual actions and the systemic nature of instabilities they can provoke. A specific treatment of finance as a public utility and of financial stability as a public good is then required. The study on the organization and management of financial markets, namely financial governance issue, ultimately leads to consider financial regulation as a collective action problem that calls for a public supervision framework through an extra‐market macroregulation, apt to allow economy to work in a viable way.     

The role of husband's and wife's economic activity status in the demand for children

Data from Hong Kong were used to examine how the demand for children is affected by the economic returns to different types of market activities. The specific data used was a 1% sample of the 1976 "Hong Kong By-Census of Population." Only women under 50 who were currently married and living with their husbands were included. The households were restricted to land-based and non-farm families with economically active husbands. There were a total of 4128 families in the sample; in 3768 families the wife had experienced at least 1 birth. A simple 1-period model of household production and fertility demand is outlined. Emphasis was on 2 aspects of the demand for children in households who choose to work in the informal sector: children are more readily employed in a family business; and wife's work in a family business or in a wage employment at home is more compatible with childcare activities. Both effects imply that holding constant other characteristics, a higher desired stock of children will be demanded. As expected, an increase in wife's predicted log earnings in home work had a negative effect on the demand for children. The effect was almost always significant. An increase in wife's productivity in the family business, as proxied by her predicted log earnings in the family business, increased the demand for children significantly. This usually is interpreted to be a result of entering a market activity which is compatible with childcare. Another possible explanation is that the price of children is lowered because if children work in the family business then their productive contributions subsidize their parents' consumption. Yet, without direct measures or proxies for these effects, it is not possible to distinguish between them. An increase in husband's predicted log earnings in wage employment had a significant negative effect on demand for children. This can be interpreted in 2 ways: if an interior solution exists for husband's allocation of time, then a negative effect implies either that children are inferior (or are observed to be so) or husband's predicted log earnings in wage employment increases the probability of specializing in it. Thus, the role of children in the family business vanishes, and the desired number of children is reduced. Both husband's and wife's schooling reduced significantly the demand for children. In general, estimates of coefficients from families with at least 1 child were smaller in absolute magnitude and less significant statistically.     

后危机时期国际金融格局的变动及其对美国经济的影响

2008年金融危机给世界经济带来了重大的影响,国际金融格局也发生了显著变化。本文主要分析了国际汇率体系、国际收支和国际储备体系、国别经济政策与国际间经济政策协调的变化。在后危机时期,美国经济也受国际金融格局变化的影响,包括美元中心地位的问题、“中心一外围”模式可持续性的问题和美国的国际经济领导权问题。本文得出的主要结论是：国际几种主要货币汇率波动增大,国际汇率体系弹性增大,国际收支总体失衡程度下降,美元为主的国际储备体系呈多元化趋势,先进经济体与新兴发展经济体的经济协调在加强,美元的霸权地位面临挑战,美国在国际分工中的中心地位在下降,美国在国际经济的主导地位也在逐渐下降,新兴经济体获得更多的话语权。     

中国农村金融发展的困境、成因及其破解

长期以来我国农村金融市场的发展受到不同程度上的抑制,农村金融功能难以得到有效发挥,致使金融支农绩效水平低下,影响了新农村建设的加速进程。与已有较多文献不同的是,本文将分别从金融发展规模、结构和效率三个层面对改革开放以来我国农村金融发展困境进行统计描述,结果显示我国农村金融支持的规模、结构及效率与同期全国和城镇水平相比都较为滞后。同时,本文认为导致农村金融发展滞后成因主要有长期的“二元”经济结构、“一刀切”式的金融政策、农村金融机构不良贷款率偏高以及现有农村金融供给体系不断萎缩,最后在此基础之上寻求了四点破解途径,即逐步提高农村劳动生产率水平、实行有差别的金融政策、积极发展农业保险和不断提高自身经营绩效并加强金融监管。     

我国经济增长中的金融动员效率

在渐进转型时期,我国微观主体效率总体低下,无法满足金融效率与经济增长协调一致的必要条件;依靠金融动员高效率并在一定程度上牺牲金融配置效率来促进经济增长,是相当长时期内的现实选择。强控制金融下的高动员效率极大地促进了我国经济的快速增长,但是也累积了巨额不良资产等严重问题,数量扩张型增长难以为继。随着各种经济社会条件变化,金融动员高效率让位、回归于金融配置高效率成为必然和可能。     

生育指标和婚姻匹配*

本文通过研究中国计划生育政策改革来检验贝克尔（Becker）关于婚姻的经济学理论。中国从20世纪80年代起实行“一胎化”政策,但随后逐渐允许夫妻均为独生子女的家庭生育第二胎,即“双独二胎”政策。由于“双独二胎”实施前不同省份“一胎化”政策的执行力度不同,所以放开“双独二胎”在不同省份间的政策效果也不同。笔者利用政策实施时间前后和省份间政策力度的差异,采用二重差分的实证设计进行分析,发现“双独二胎”政策增加了独生子女之间的匹配,减少了独生子女和非独生子女的“混合匹配”。笔者建立搜寻—匹配模型对“双独二胎”政策如何影响婚姻市场均衡进行分析。二重差分的实证分析得到的证据与模型的推论相一致,实证结果在一系列检验中保持稳健。     

中国金融资源配置效率不均衡对地区经济差距的影响——基于南北视角分析

本文探究了我国金融资源配置效率不均衡对地区经济差距的影响。基于我国2001至2020年间的省级数据对金融资源配置效率进行测算，利用Dagum基尼系数测度了金融资源配置效率的空间非均衡特征，通过二次指派程序（QAP）从全样本期和不同时期考察了金融资源配置效率对地区经济差距的影响，并尝试从南北视角对上述结果进行解释。本文的研究表明：我国金融资源配置效率具有明显的空间不均衡特征，表现为南高北低的“阶梯式”分布格局。全国金融资源配置效率对地区经济差距在全样本期考察和分期考察中均存在明显影响，在南北地区中，影响强度存在差异，南方地区虽更早的享受到了金融资源配置效率提高促进经济协调发展的红利，但其影响强度整体低于北方地区。     

经济政策不确定性与家族企业创新——融资约束及政府补助视角

家族企业作为社会发展的主要参与者，在促进经济增长方面发挥着不可替代的作用。家族企业若想实现长期发展，必然依靠创新。然而，我国家族企业普遍面临创新投入不足、创新产出效率低下等问题。基于2010—2018年中国上市家族企业数据，分析经济政策不确定性对于家族企业创新是否存在激励作用。结果发现，经济政策不确定性提高，会对家族企业创新研发活动投入与产出产生正向激励作用，促进家族企业创新。从融资约束与政府补助视角，分析两者在上述正向激励作用中的调节作用。结果表明，对于融资约束小以及受到政府补助的家族企业而言，其受到经济政策不确定性的正向激励作用更显著，有助于其开展创新研发活动。结论不仅验证了经济政策不确定性对于家族企业创新的激励作用，还揭示了融资约束以及政府补助的调节作用，可为政府制定相应补助政策，构建完善的金融市场提供理论支持和经验证据。