Highlights:
There exist significant CDS spillover effects for MIST and BRICS countries.
Mexico dominates the spillover effects within the MIST group while Brazil dominates the spillover effects within the BRICS group.
As determined by principal component analysis, global financial market factors are important drivers of BRICS and MIST sovereign CDS spreads variability.
There exists a relatively small net directional spillover from global financial market factors to the countries under study; however, the total spillover is time-varying.
A large proportion of the forecast error variance in the markets studied comes from spillovers.
1. The means of the propensity scores in the two groups are more than one-half a standard deviation apart unless distributions of the covariates in both groups are nearly symmetric, sample sizes of the two groups are approximately the same and distributions of the covariates in the two groups have similar variances;
2. The ratio of the propensity score variances in the two groups is significantly different from one;
3. The ratio of residual variances in the two groups after adjusting for the propensity score is significantly different from one.
they are not different from other financial markets as they exhibit most of the empirical regularities including volatility sign asymmetry, non-normal distribution and volatility clustering. It is however observed that the three exchange rate series are very volatile, with induced volatile shocks highly persistent and asymmetric, and extreme prices commonplace;
the ARCH technique (which has been well documented to capture these empirical regularities and produce good forecasts) generally produced a good fit to the three exchange rate series when compared with volatility forecasts generated using the EWMA technique. In the simple analysis of a day-ahead volatility forecast abilities of estimated models, it was observed that best fit does not necessarily ensure best forecast.
Economic evaluations are increasingly utilized to inform decisions in healthcare; however, decisions remain uncertain when they are not based on adequate evidence. Value of information (VOI) analysis has been proposed as a systematic approach to measure decision uncertainty and assess whether there is sufficient evidence to support new technologies.
Scope:
The objective of this paper is to review the principles and applications of VOI analysis in healthcare. Relevant databases were systematically searched to identify VOI articles. The findings from the selected articles were summarized and narratively presented.
Findings:
Various VOI methods have been developed and applied to inform decision-making, optimally designing research studies and setting research priorities. However, the application of this approach in healthcare remains limited due to technical and policy challenges.
Conclusion:
There is a need to create more awareness about VOI analysis, simplify its current methods, and align them with the needs of decision-making organizations. 相似文献
To provide evidence on recent trends in: (1) market exclusivity periods (MEPs, the time between launch of a brand-name drug and its first generic competitor) for new molecular entities (NMEs); (2) the likelihood and timing of patent challenges under Paragraph IV of the Hatch-Waxman Act; and (3) generic drug penetration.
Methods:
IMS Health National Sales Perspectives data were used to calculate MEPs for the 257 NMEs experiencing initial generic entry between January 1995 and September 2012 and the number of generic competitors for 12 months afterwards, by level of annual sales prior to generic entry and time period. The likelihood and timing of Paragraph IV challenge were calculated using data from Abbreviated New Drug Approval (ANDA) approval letters, the FDA website, and public information searches to identify drugs experiencing Paragraph IV filings, and the first filing date.
Results:
For drugs experiencing initial generic entry in 2011–2012, the MEP was 12.6 years for drugs with sales greater than $100 million (in 2008 dollars) in the year prior to generic entry, 12.9 years overall. After generic entry, the brand rapidly lost sales, with average brand unit share of 16% at 1 year; 11% for NMEs with pre-generic entry sales of at least $250 million (in 2008 dollars). Over 80% of NMEs experiencing 2011–2012 initial generic entry had faced at least one Paragraph IV challenge from a generic manufacturer. These challenges were filed relatively early in the brand-name drug life cycle: within 7 years after brand launch, on average.
Limitations:
Analyses, including Paragraph IV calculations, were restricted to NMEs where generic entry had occurred.
Conclusion:
Pharmaceutical competition continues to evolve; while the average MEP below 13 years for 2011–2012 remains consistent with prior research, Paragraph IV challenges are increasingly frequent and occur earlier, and generic share erosion has intensified. 相似文献
- (1)Attempts to combine ecological and economic theory;
- (2)Points out the importance of time frame in the two economies (evolutionary vs. market time);
- (3)Examines the effects of expected uncertainty due to environmental hazards in defining energy acquisition and allocation strategies in two invasive aphid species at the extremes of so called r- and K-strategies and the well adapted Central American cotton–cotton bollweevil system;
- (4)Evaluates the effects of changes in behavioral and physiological parameters and environmental degradation on the abundance of resource and consumer species.
Objective:
To perform a comparative long-term analysis of the associated healthcare costs for the therapeutic options in advanced Parkinson’s Disease (PD): deep brain stimulation (DBS), continuous duodenal levodopa-carbidopa infusion (CDLCI), and continuous subcutaneous apomorphine infusion (CSAI). 相似文献Objective:
To assess the effectiveness of managed care plans that limited access to infusion biologics via a step therapy policy. 相似文献This retrospective cohort analysis was conducted to examine the cost components of administering IV chemotherapy to peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL) patients in the US to inform decision makers.
Methods:
Patients diagnosed with PTCL (ICD-9 code 202.7X) between 1 October 2007 and 30 September 2012 were identified from a US administrative claims database. Costs for patients receiving at least one NCCN recommended IV chemotherapy were assessed using the allowed payment from claim line items, categorized into cost components (study drug costs, IV administration costs and other visit-related services).
Results:
The mean costs to the payer for IV cancer therapy administration in a PTCL patient population averaged about $5735 per visit and $9356 per member per month (PMPM). Across all therapies, mean IV administration costs accounted for $127–$794 per visit and $594–$1808 PMPM, contributing an additional 2–32% to the total costs of the drug alone. Mean other visit-related services costs for treating PTCL accounted for $70–$2487 per visit and $444–$3094 PMPM, contributing an additional 2–74% to the total costs. Combined, these additional costs represent an additional mean cost of $220–$3150 per visit and $1193–$4609 PMPM to the base price of the drug alone.
Limitations:
This study used a convenience sample to identify PTCL patients and only included visits where at least one NCCN recommended IV chemotherapy was administered.
Conclusions:
The costs of IV administration and other visit-related services add measurable costs to the total cost of IV therapy for treating PTCL. When considering the cost of the drug, these additional costs can represent a substantial proportion of the overall costs and must be considered when evaluating the costs of IV treatment options for PTCL. 相似文献
Objective:
To analyze the achievements, issues and policy recommendations for implementing essential medicine system in China after a 3-year effort. 相似文献The goal of this study is to determine the cost-effectiveness of MIRISK VP, a next generation coronary heart disease risk assessment score, in correctly reclassifying and appropriately treating asymptomatic, intermediate risk patients.
Study design:
A Markov model was employed with simulated subjects based on the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). This study evaluated three treatment strategies: (i) practice at MESA enrollment, (ii) current guidelines, and (iii) MIRISK VP in MESA.
Methods:
The model assessed patient healthcare costs and outcomes, expressed in terms of life years and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), over the lifetime of the cohort from the provider and payer perspective. A total of 50,000 hypothetical individuals were used in the model. A sensitivity analysis was conducted (based on the various input parameters) for the entire cohort and also for individuals aged 65 and older.
Results:
Guiding treatment with MIRISK VP leads to the highest net monetary benefits when compared to the ‘Practice at MESA Enrollment’ or to the ‘Current Guidelines’ strategies. MIRISK VP resulted in a lower mortality rate from any CHD event and a modest increase in QALY of 0.12–0.17 years compared to the other two approaches.
Limitations:
This study has limitations of not comparing performance against strategies other than the FRS, the results are simulated as with all models, the model does not incorporate indirect healthcare costs, and the impact of patient or physician behaviors on outcomes were not taken into account.
Conclusions:
MIRISK VP has the potential to improve patient outcomes compared to the alternative strategies. It is marginally more costly than both the ‘Practice at MESA Enrollment’ and the ‘Current Guidelines’ strategies, but it provides increased effectiveness, which leads to positive net monetary benefits over either strategy. 相似文献
Telaprevir (TVR,T) and boceprevir (BOC,B) are direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) used for the treatment of chronic genotype 1 hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. This analysis evaluated the cost-effectiveness of TVR combined with pegylated interferon (Peg-IFN) alfa-2a plus ribavirin (RBV) compared with Peg-IFN alfa-2a and RBV (PR) alone or BOC plus Peg-IFN alfa-2b and RBV in treatment-experienced patients.
Methods:
A Markov cohort model of chronic genotype 1 HCV disease progression reflected the pathway of experienced patients retreated with DAA therapy. The population was stratified by previous response to treatment (i.e., previous relapsers, partial responders, and null responders). Sustained virologic response (SVR) rates were derived from a mixed-treatment comparison that included results from separate Phase III trials of TVR and BOC. Incremental cost per life year (LY) gained and quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) gained were computed at lifetime, adopting the NHS perspective. Costs and health outcomes were discounted at 3.5%. Uncertainty was assessed using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Sub-group analyses were carried out by interleukin (IL)-28B genotype.
Results:
Higher costs and improved outcomes were associated with T/PR relative to PR alone for all experienced patients (ICER of £6079). T/PR was cost-effective for each sub-group population with high SVR advantage in relapsers (ICER of £2658 vs £7593 and £20,875 for partial and null responders). T/PR remained cost-effective regardless of IL-28B sub-type. Compared to B/PR, T/PR prolonged QALYs by 0.57 and reduced lifetime costs by £13,960 for relapsers. For partial responders T/PR was less costly but less efficacious than B/PR, equating to an ICER of £128,117 per QALY gained.
Limitations:
No head-to-head trial provides direct evidence of better efficacy of T/PR vs B/PR.
Conclusion:
T/PR is cost-effective compared with PR alone in experienced patients regardless of treatment history and IL-28B genotype. Compared to B/PR, T/PR is always cost-saving but only more effective in relapsers. 相似文献
Telaprevir (T, TVR) is a direct-acting antiviral (DAA) used for the treatment of genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. The sustained virological response (SVR) rates, i.e., undetectable HCV RNA levels 24 weeks after the end of treatment, is what differentiate treatments. This analysis evaluated the cost-effectiveness of TVR combined with pegylated interferon (Peg-IFN) alfa-2a plus ribavirin (RBV), with Peg-IFN and RBV (PR) alone or with boceprevir (B, BOC) plus Peg-IFN alfa-2b and RBV, in naïve patients.
Methods:
A Markov cohort model of chronic HCV disease progression reflected the pathway of naïve patients initiating anti-HCV therapy. SVR rates were derived from a mixed-treatment comparison including results from Phase II and III trials of TVR and BOC, and trials comparing both PR regimens. SVR has significant impact on survival, quality-of-life, and costs. Incremental cost per life year (LY) gained and quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) gained were computed at lifetime, adopting the (National Health Service) NHS perspective. Cost and health outcomes were discounted at 3.5%. Uncertainty was assessed using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Sub-group analyses were also performed by interleukin (IL)-28B genotype and fibrosis stage.
Results:
Higher costs and improved outcomes were associated with T/PR relative to PR alone, resulting in an ICER of £12,733 per QALY gained. T/PR retained a significant SVR advantage over PR alone and was cost-effective regardless of IL-28B genotype and fibrosis stages. T/PR regimen ‘dominated’ B/PR, generating 0.2 additional QALYs and reducing lifetime cost by £2758. Sensitivity analyses consistently resulted in ICERs less than £30,000/QALY for the T/PR regimen over PR alone.
Limitations:
No head-to-head trial provides direct evidence of better efficacy of T/PR vs B/PR.
Conclusion:
The introduction of TVR-based therapy for genotype 1 HCV patients is cost-effective for naïve patients at the £30,000 willingness-to-pay threshold, regardless of IL-28B genotype or fibrosis stage. 相似文献