A hybrid selection model for emerging technology

Technology selection, which influences the advantages of an enterprise or a country, is a multi-criteria decision issue that can be improved by integrating different methods. In addition, it is more and more difficult to identify the right technologies because the technologies are increasing in number and complexity. This study proposes a technology selection process integrating fuzzy Delphi method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and patent co-citation approach (PCA) for technology selection. The former effectively gathers experts' judgments toward technology selection criteria and conducts the fuzziness existing in their responses. The analytic hierarchy process has the strength of identifying criteria and obtaining their relationship and their weights. The patent co-citation approach identifies the major R&D fields of a specific technology from patent data. Through this proposed process, the key technology fields can be identified in the end. The organic light emitting diode (OLED) technology in Taiwan is used to be an example to illustrate the proposed technology selection process.     

The selection of technology for late-starters: A case study of the energy-smart photovoltaic industry

Technology selection, which influences the competitive advantages of an enterprise or a country, is a multi-criteria decision issue. In addition, it is increasingly difficult to identify the right technologies because technologies are increasing in number and complexity. This study proposes a technology selection process integrating the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Delphi method. The former effectively conducts the fuzziness existing in experts' responses and identifies the strength of technology selection criteria and the relationship between the two. The latter provides the main technology alternatives for Taiwan's future photovoltaic industry. Finally, through the two-way linkage between technology selection criteria and main industrial technologies, the technology fields of the photovoltaic industry can be identified. The empirical results indicate that the benefit of a technology is the most important factor among technological selection criteria, and that Taiwan should adopt and develop microcrystalline silicon film multi-junction and amorphous-silicon solar cells as its main industrial technologies. The results may serve to guide industrial technology acquisition and the work of resource allocations on the behalf of government and enterprises.     

Housing booms and media coverage

This article analyses news media coverage of the housing market. Building on theories of media influence where word of mouth is the final mechanism of opinion change but media initiate discourse, I examine the relationship between news media and the recent UK house price boom. Over 30 000 articles on the UK housing market from the period 1993 to 2008 are analysed, and it is found that media Granger-caused real house price changes, suggesting the media may have influenced opinions on the housing market. However, media sentiment on the housing market did not change with the secular increase in house prices in the 2000s, suggesting that the media did not contribute to the UK’s housing boom and may have helped constrain it.     

Round the Houses: Homeownership and Failures of Asset-Based Welfare in the United Kingdom

This article explores the contingencies of financialisation and housing. More specifically, how the spatial and temporal dynamics of the UK housing market ensure that homeownership does not (and arguably cannot) deliver welfare provision in the way envisioned by asset-based welfare initiatives. The first section demonstrates the fundamental problem of conceptualising households as asset-holders; in particular, with regard to housing-based welfare strategies and as part of financialised growth strategies in the UK, more generally. We show that continuing to assume residential housing is a static and unchanging asset-class depoliticises how asset-based welfare intensifies household indebtedness. The second section demonstrates the temporal, spatial and social limits of homeownership in the UK. We argue that the financialisation of housing in the UK is a unique set of political and economic circumstances that cannot be repeated; therefore, current gains from residential housing are a one-off wealth windfall to particular (lucky) groups within society. The temporal and spatial limits of gains from residential housing mean that the same conditions cannot be repeated (often enough) in the way required for residential housing to provide a generalisable welfare function. Finally, the article concludes by suggesting the potential of new research that incorporates temporal, spatial and social contingencies of housing to demonstrate how financialisation materialises in everyday life.     

Housing crowding in developing countries and willingness to pay for additional space: The case of Korea

The very rapid rates of urban population growth in developing countries is placing great strain on their housing stock. Housing policies which are aiming at reducing or eliminating crowding are generally based on notions of ‘needs’ and ‘standards of adequacy’ which are more often based on arbitrarily selected criteria than on domestic economic conditions. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the willingness to pay for the additional housing space by households and the validity of target housing standards. The three methods used show consistently that — at least in Korea — the willingness to pay for additional space is less than 25 percent of the value of an extra unit of space, everything else being equal.     

多指标决策分析在卫生技术评价中的应用研究

目的多指标决策分析法作为一种重要的决策分析方法,其在卫生技术评价中的应用引起了国内外许多学者的关注。本文主要研究多指标决策分析在卫生技术评价中应用的可能性。方法选取多指标决策分析的两种类型,将其应用于具体的卫生技术评价案例中进行分析。结果在满足一定的假设条件下,多指标决策分析可以应用于卫生技术评价。结论在卫生技术评价中引用多指标决策分析,仍有许多相关问题有待深入研究和探索。     

Technology and worker coopratives: some UK evidence and a framework for investigation

This paper considers the relationship between cooperatives i n the ‘new wave’ and the technology they use. Data and examples from the UK are presented to show that there is no general support either for the ‘optimistic’ hypothesis that cooperatives are necessarily able to make humanizing choices about technology or for the ‘pessimistic’ hypothesis that they are completely constrained by technology. A framework is developed for analysing the factors which may or may not allow technological choices. The paper goes on to form a new hypothesis in two parts: firstly, that small firms i n general have more freedom to make choices about technology the more they have independence from large firms and the market, and the more they are i n areas of product innovation, particularly IT-based innovation; secondly, given a degree of freedom to make such choices, the choice is more likely to be made successfully in the direction of humanizing uses of technology the more there is potential for identif;cation between job, product and social or political aims. The paper concludes by describing a research project now under way exploring the relative importance of these factors in established UK worker cooperatives.     

Regional UK house price co-movement

ABSTRACT

Cyclical synchronization of home prices has important implications for monetary (and other) policies. Regional house price divergence, even over a business cycle, can inhibit labour mobility and prevent workers from moving to where they could add most to their own wages and overall growth. We study house price co-movement across the different UK regions with a method, that, unlike previously employed techniques, allows for time-varying estimates. We find first, that the UK exhibits more home price divergence compared to previously reported results for the US. Second, regions near London exhibit the most co-movement, and those further from London the most divergence. Third, London itself is in the ‘middle of the pack’ in terms of synchronization compared to other regions. This may reflect London’s status as a ‘global city’ and being the destination for housing demand from sources abroad. Lastly, segmentation has clearly been increasing, rather than decreasing in recent years.     

拓宽中国住房公积金投资渠道的博弈分析

近年来,中国住房公积金缴存范围越来越广,存储量越来越大,预计不久将成为中国最大的基金。但公积金投资领域的增值收益最大化与资金安全性风险之间的矛盾影响公积金体制的进一步发展,博弈分析表明,将住房公积金余额投资于保障性住房建设,既能帮助政府建设更多的保障性住房、满足中低收入住房困难群体的需要,又能使住房公积金资金得到最有效的使用,是公积金管理部门的最优选择。     

Ripple effect in house prices and trading volume in the UK housing market: New viewpoint and evidence

This study adopts the data of house prices and trading volume in the overall UK housing market and in the housing markets in the 10 major regions in the UK to estimate the ripple effect in the trading activities in the housing markets. First, this study details why the ripple effect occurs in the housing market price and volume using static and cobweb dynamic models. The results of the panel-based unit root tests indicate that the relative price and volume ratios show constancy, signifying that long-run equilibrium relationships exist between the regional and national housing markets in the UK. The frequency of the transaction volume convergence behavior is higher than that of the overall house prices.     

夯土建筑低碳技术及CO2排放分析——以安吉生态屋为例

以浙江安吉生态屋中的夯土住宅为例,从全寿命周期角度分析其在材料选择、施工方式、构造做法、拆除方式等方面的低碳技术,测算其全寿命周期CO2排放量。结果发现,夯土住宅单位建筑面积年CO2排放量为17.37kg/m2 a,远低于普通砖混结构住宅,在建材生产、建材准备、建筑施工阶段尤为明显。夯土住宅在建材选择、施工、拆除方面的低碳技术,值得新农村住宅建设时借鉴。     

AN EMPIRICAL STATIONARY EQUILIBRIUM SEARCH MODEL OF THE HOUSING MARKET*

This article specifies and estimates a computationally tractable stationary equilibrium model of the housing market. The model is rich and incorporates many of its unique features: buyers’ and sellers’ simultaneous search behavior, heterogeneity in their motivation to trade, transaction costs, a trading mechanism with posting prices and bargaining, and the availability of an exogenous advertising technology that induces endogenous matching. Estimation uses Maximum Likelihood methods and Multiple Listing Services data. The estimated model is used to simulate housing market outcomes when (a) the amount of information displayed on housing listings increases and (b) real estate agent’s commission rates change.     

住房保障与财富效应逆转——基于平滑转换回归方法的实证分析

本文采取非线性的平滑转换回归方法,对我国保障房供给影响财富效应的程度进行了研究,结果表明:保障房的供给会使得房地产价格的财富效应发生V型逆转,即当保障房供给处于低水平阶段时,房地产价格的财富效应为负向,房价上涨会抑制消费增加;当保障房供给处于高水平阶段时,房地产价格具有正向的财富效应,房价上涨促进消费增加。这说明存在一个保障房供给的最低门槛,只有跨越这个门槛,才能有利于发挥房地产价格的财富效应,进而促进消费。从对全国各省份的数据分析发现,西部地区的大部分省份已经跨越了保障房供给的最低门槛,而东部地区较多的省份,连续几年都低于这个门槛值。因此,应积极建立健全保障性安居工程的融资机制,合理协调好保障房与商品房用地之间的关系,进而促进消费。     

Are cyclical patterns of international housing markets interdependent?

This paper investigates the relationships among the US, UK, and Canadian housing markets from two aspects: the driving forces of housing cycles and the structures of correlation coefficients in different phases of housing cycles. The results indicate that the structures of driving forces and correlation coefficients are deeply hinged on the international housing markets. For the US and Canada pair, the driving forces of cyclical patterns are related to each other and the regime-switching correlation coefficients are always positive. However, for the US and UK pair and the UK and Canada pair, the driving forces are independent and there is no consistent pattern for the correlations.     

Less planning,more development? Housing and urban reform discourses in Australia

This paper examines how particular interests shape urban policy debate and reform in Australia. With a particular emphasis on proposed planning system reforms in the nation’s largest state of New South Wales, we examine written submissions from development industry sectors, resident groups, and professional associations. We then compare these submissions to government responses, finding these responses heavily reflect industry narratives. In the context of an ongoing microeconomic reform agenda oriented towards deregulation and competition policy, housing development is framed as central to delivering economic growth, while the planning system is portrayed as a constraint holding back investment and new housing production. Through this prism, a series of rhetorical strategies reframe community concerns about housing affordability and the impact of new development to fit the growth agenda, while environmental and social considerations are largely sidelined.     

An econometric model of tenure choice and demand for housing as a joint decision

This paper models a household's choice of tenure and demand for housing services as a joint decision imposing the restriction that both discrete and continuous decisions are derived from a single preference ordering. The utility index for households is the translog form of the reciprocal indirect utility function allowing for random preferences. Each household chooses between the two main tenures, the owner-occupied and subsidised rental sectors, but households may be rationed in either or both of these sectors and refused admission, in which case they are assumed to enter the third sector, uncontrolled rental. The model is estimated on UK data for 5895 households.     

Client, User and Architect Interactions in Construction: Implications for Analysing Innovative Outcomes from User-Producer Interactions in Projects

Three case studies of user/client-architect interaction, and their implications for an understanding of the design and innovation process in capital goods projects, are considered in this paper. The studies presented include a major 'City Challenge'-funded social housing development programme in the UK, a housing co-operative-driven workplace and housing scheme associated with the same programme and a new building for the business school of a major UK university. Reflecting upon existing literature on user-producer relationships, the paper draws two key conclusions from the case studies that add to this literature. The first points to the need to account for the broader strategic motivations of agents within projects. Two of the case studies describe how innovation driven by the architects involved exceeded the original requirements of the client, and in so doing reveal architects to be oriented toward non-project specific goals. The second conclusion focuses on the user/client and points to the importance of a strong and coherent 'customer vision' in 'enabling' the client to determine project outcomes more fully. Following from these conclusions, it is argued that an analysis of client/ user-producer interactions needs to account more fully for the effects of longer-term strategic planning by agents.     

Relationships among regional housing markets: Evidence on adjustments of housing burden

High regional house prices relative to income may result in residents moving to other regions with lower housing burden; this generates relationships among regional housing markets. From this perspective, this study employed Markov-switching models to examine housing affordability in 10 regional housing markets in the UK. The results show that levels of housing burden among regions are related, thereby proving that a high cost of housing burden in one region may result in residents buying houses in other regions. Moreover, this study found that house prices in most regions tend to converge with income levels but are asymmetric within the period of convergence. Specifically, because the period of high housing loans lasts longer, and vice versa, housing demand increases as soon as house prices drop. Thus, periods of “inexpensive” house prices do not last long. This paper explains why living costs in different regions are related, and proposes that housing demands may have asymmetric reactions when house prices are too high or too low.     

Residential Mobility, Housing Equity and the Labour Market

UK commentators have noted that the UK housing market may hinder labour market flexibility. The present paper uses UK household longitudinal data (BHPS) for the early 1990s, and estimates single and competing risk discrete time duration models of residence duration to investigate the impact of negative housing equity on residential moves. Strong evidence for an adverse impact on mobility is found, along with results to suggest that the home-owners do not move in response to changing labour market conditions. Negative equity in the early 1990s therefore exacerbated housing market related rigidities in the job matching process     

Modelling structural change in the UK housing market: A comparison of alternative house price models

This paper develops a new approach to the modelling of house prices in the UK, with housing demand being conditioned directly on consumers' expenditure rather than the determinants of expenditure. Conditioning on consumption ensures that the permanent income measure used in determining the level of consumption is consistently reflected in housing demand. The effects of financial liberalisation on the relative consumption of housing and non-housing goods and services are captured using the average loan-value ratio for first-time buyers. We also allow for financial effects via the real user cost of home ownership. House prices are assumed to adjust so as to clear the housing market. The proposed model is found to have structurally stable parameters across the housing market downturn since 1990. Statistical comparisons with the more conventional models in use at HM Treasury and the Bank of England during the early 1990s provide additional evidence in favour of our proposed approach.