Modelling Intercontinental Tourism Consumption in South Africa: A Systems‐of‐Equations Approach

This paper investigates the pattern of inbound tourists' consumption in South Africa, examining four main intercontinental markets and five different tourism goods. The empirical investigation develops an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model and it extends recent research by allowing tourists to base their spending decision on the real effective price differences between South Africa and their home country. The results show that tourist spending in South Africa is a luxury good, and tourists react normally to a change in the relative price of goods. The cross‐price elasticities suggest that the preferences of different markets influence their view of substitutability and complementary effects between various products in South Africa.     

Existence level differences and spatial industrial restructuring in South Africa: RDP imperatives

The change of government in South Africa and the subsequent implementation of the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) has necessitated afresh look at the spatial‐economic development policies of the past. Recently, an attempt was made to measure differences in existence level in South Africa using a combination of First and Third World criteria. In this paper these differences are related to general trends in population redistribution in the country since 1960 in an effort to assess the probable impact of existence level difference and migration on urbanisation in South Africa in the long run. On the basis of these assessments, expected trends in urban development in South Africa are compared with previous industrial development policies in an effort to determine RDP imperatives for the future.     

THE ECONOMICS OF SUICIDE IN SOUTH AFRICA

This study investigates the economics of suicide in South Africa using the Mortality and Causes of Death data from death notification as well as regional economic data for the 2006‐2008 period. Using an inflation rate that varies by month and across province of residence as a proxy for economic performance, the results indicate a negative relationship between inflation and suicide, suggesting that suicides are countercyclical. When controlling for month and province fixed effects, however, the inflation coefficient, albeit remaining negative, is no longer significant, except in the female sample. Suicide is more prevalent among younger individuals, while the greatest proportion of suicide is seen among men. Suicides also exhibit a strong seasonal variation, with peaks in spring and summer, with December having the highest suicide prevalence. The overall results indicate a negative but insignificant relationship between economic performance and suicide in South Africa, with socio‐economic differences and individual characteristics accounting for most of the variation in suicide.     

IS THERE EVIDENCE OF A WAGE PENALTY TO FEMALE PART‐TIME EMPLOYMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA?

In this paper, we investigate female part‐time employment in South Africa. Using household survey data for South Africa from 1995 to 2004, we show that women are over‐represented in part‐time employment, and that the growth in part‐time work has been an important feature of the feminisation of the labour force. In contrast to many studies of part‐time work in other countries, however, we find evidence of a significant wage premium to female part‐time employment. The premium is also robust to fixed effects estimations using Labour Force Survey panel data from 2001 to 2004, where controlling for unobservable differences increases its size. The premium persists with different hourly thresholds defining part‐time employment and when we account for possible reporting errors in hours worked.     

Exchange Rate Policy and Currency Substitution: The Case of Africa's Emerging Economies

This paper examines the dynamic of currency substitution (CS) in Egypt and South Africa. The study also assesses the causal relationships of this phenomenon. There are three main CS‐related differences between the two countries. These are (1) the orientation of economic policy, (2) the degree and level of CS, and (3) the trend of CS. During the study period 1991‐2001, Egypt used the exchange rate as an anchor to its economic programme. While in the case of South Africa, the authorities directly targeted inflation. During this period, CS in Egypt started at a substantial level and experienced a steady decline. Conversely, CS in South Africa started at an insignificant level, but observed an uninterrupted increase. The results suggest that the elasticity of CS, with respect to exchange rate, of South Africa is 2.3 times that of Egypt, and that the speed of adjustment in South Africa is 5 times faster than in Egypt. Granger‐causality tests indicate a unidirectional relationship from the exchange rate to CS, in both Egypt and South Africa. The test for the interest rate differential and CS indicate that causality runs from the former to the latter in South Africa, but it runs in the opposite direction in Egypt. The study suggests that despite the cost of the exchange rate anchoring policy, it is more suitable to a high CS environment. Inflation targeting policy can be effective in achieving its objective as long as the CS is insignificant.     

False Promise or False Premise? The Experience of Food and Input Market Reform in Eastern and Southern Africa

The literature on the effects of agricultural market reform in Africa is sharply divided and inconsistent. This article attempts to reconcile opposing viewpoints on the effects of food and input market policy reform in eastern and southern Africa. Drawing from studies of Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, we argue that a major source of the controversy stems from assumptions that countries have actually moved to a liberalized market environment. We find that many of the most fundamental elements of the reform programs either remain unimplemented, were reversed within several years, or were implemented in such a way as to negate private sector investment incentives. A framework is developed for explaining why some countries have been able to liberalize their food and fertilizer markets while others have not. These findings have implications for how donor assistance and policy-oriented research can more constructively contribute to an improved policy environment.     

The impact of intersectoral labour reallocation on economic growth

This paper explains economic growth differences in an aggregateproduction function framework, where labor reallocation fromagriculture to modern sectors influences labor efficiency growth.The econometric analysis uses a panel of 65 developing and industrialcountries over 1960-90. The results highlight: (i) differencesin the impact of labor reallocation on growth, resulting fromvariations in the intersectoral wedge in labor productivities;(ii) the significance of labor reallocation effects, even aftercontrolling for capital accumulation, initial conditions andcountry effects, and adjusting for endogeneity; (iii) theirrole in explaining slow productivity growth in Africa; and (iv)the role of initial conditions and capital accumulation in explainingdifferences in labor reallocation rates.     

Is Poverty in the African DNA (Gene)?

A 2015 World Bank report on attainment of Millennium Development Goals concludes that the number of extremely poor has dropped substantially in all regions with the exception of Sub‐Saharan Africa. We assess if poverty is in the African gene by revisiting the findings of Ashraf and Galor and reformulating the “Out of Africa Hypothesis” into a “Genetic Diversity Hypothesis” for a “Within Africa Analysis.” We motivate this reformulation with five shortcomings largely drawn from the 2015 findings of the African Gerome Variation Project, notably: limitations in the conception of space, an African dummy in genetic diversity, linearity in migratory patterns, migratory origins and underpinnings of genetic diversity in Africa. Ashraf and Galor have concluded that cross‐country differences in development can be explained by genetic diversity in a Kuznets or inverted U‐shaped pattern. Our results from an exclusive African perspective partially confirm the underlying hypothesis in a contemporary context, but not in the historical analysis. From a historical context, the nexus is U‐shaped for migratory distance, mobility index and predicted diversity while for the contemporary analysis; it is hump shaped for ancestry‐adjusted predicted diversity. Hence from a within‐Africa comparative standpoint, poverty is not in the African gene.     

Africa's Economic Growth: Opportunities and Constraints

Abstract: Africa's economies have diverged from other developing regions: over the past three decades growth has been much slower. In this paper I relate this to the region's distinctive physical and political geography. These features not only make Africa different from other regions, they make some parts of Africa radically different from others. Understanding these differences is critical because they imply equally substantial differences in opportunities and hence in the strategies likely to be effective for growth. No pan‐African growth strategy offers a realistic prospect of success, nor can Africa simply copy the strategies of successful regions that have fundamentally different physical or political geography. I propose three strategies each of which is likely to be appropriate for a part of the region.     

Innovation in Africa: Why Institutions Matter

Given the role that innovation plays as an engine for economic development, we examined the enabling factor of institutions in Africa. Particularly, attention was given to determining the equivalent effects of institutional development on innovation. A sample of 40 African countries over the period 1996‐2012 was employed, and our baseline equation was estimated using the system generalised method of moments (SGMM) estimation technique. The empirical result reveals that government effectiveness and regulatory quality are two institutional measures that have the most equivalent impact on innovation. The extent of impact is an indication that institutions matter, especially when considering innovation in Africa. Therefore, to advance the rate of innovation in Africa, improving frameworks to drive regulations and enhance government effectiveness is a necessary instrument. Having these in place, Africa will be able to catch up with advanced economies.     

中国对非援助的出口贸易效应——基于出口增加值的视角

基于Eora26投入产出表数据和全球中国官方金融数据库，本文检验了中国对非援助与中国对非出口增加值的因果关系及机制。研究结果显示：(1)中国对非援助可以显著提升中国对非出口增加值，在进行了一系列的稳健性检验和处理了内生性问题后，该结论依然成立；(2)提高非洲国家的交通和通信设施质量是中国对非援助影响出口增加值的主要机制；(3)中国对非援助的出口增加值效应会随产业分类、援助类型的不同而产生差异；(4)进一步研究表明，非洲接受的DAC发展委员会国家和国际多边组织援助的“碎片化”会削弱中国对非援助的出口增加值的促进作用，这种影响在经济实力和政府治理能力较弱的非洲国家更为明显。本文的结论为中国对非援助的贸易效应提供了进一步的经验支持，并揭示了中国对非援助影响中国对非出口增加值的内在规律。这对于加强中非经贸关系，构建“中非命运共同体”具有重要意义。     

The development axis as a development instrument in the Southern African development area

Development axes are phenomena which occur world‐wide and which are widely used in the physical planning process as a working tool to regulate economic and geographical space. Different interpretations of the phenomenon lead to considerable differences in its application as a planning instrument ‐ also in South Africa. An attempt has been made to analyse different approaches to the concept against the background of its fundamental morphological properties. It is argued that there is still today a need for a development axis policy in the Southern African development area (SADA). Finally an alternative approach is suggested which makes it possible to illuminate some of the most important disadvantages in the current application of the concept in Southern Africa.     

Re-estimating gender differences in income in South Africa: The implications of equivalence scales

Most studies of poverty and inequality in South Africa measure individual welfare by deflating total household resources, such as income, by household size. This per-capita method makes no adjustments for the different consumption needs of children or for household economies of scale. However, in addition to being more likely to live in households where average per-capita household income is lower compared with men, we show that women in South Africa also live in significantly larger households which include more children. These gendered differences in household composition are driven to a large degree by low rates of co-residency between men and women. We therefore investigate how adjusting household resources for the presence of children and economies of scale affects measures of the gender gap in income.     

Population policy in South Africa: a critical perspective

The argument in this article is that population growth and the concept of balancing resources against population growth is flawed when the context, in this case South Africa, is gross inequalities in resource distribution. The fact is that causes of poverty are located in the social and political structures which give people unequal access to existing resources or international aid. Population trends reflect the mode of production of that society. It is argued that the Malthusian law of population and the theory of demographic transition is ahistorical and inaccurate. The theory does not explain why population growth rates change. In South Africa, fertility reflects lack of control over one's life and poverty. Migrant labor in South Africa undermined normal social institutions and disrupted family life. Government has emphasized a fear of a future population crisis because of resource shortages and a fear of the growing black population. The South African population development program is extracted and discussed. Questions are raised about the theory of demographic transition, the way resource allocation is ascertained, the relationship between resources and population in a specific area, and the relationship between population growth and development in general. The theory of demographic transition is examined and the Western influences which contributed to population growth through requests for changes in sexual mores and the effects of colonization. When demographic transition theory postulates that mortality rates decline with industrialization as a result of access to medical care and an improved diet, it doesn't take into account the discriminatory health care allocation under apartheid, or the displacement of rural people from their land and undermining of the rural peasantry. Separate development has led to inferior schooling and lack of access to skilled employment. In discussing the availability of resources in South Africa, the question is raised as to whether there is an absolute limit to water, or whether water management or water conservation is at issue, as in the case example of the Transkei. What is economical reflects political decisions about national priorities when consideration is given to alternative strategies for increasing the water supply, or solving pollution problems. The potential to feed South Africans is substantiated, and the problems of maldistribution identified. In establishing the balance between family planning and development, the Population Development Program (PDP) expresses contradictory aims; i.e., seeking community involvement of a politically disenfranchised population. The concept of overpopulation and the application of population control programs in South Africa does not address the problems of poverty and powerlessness.     

Determinants of China's and Japan's Foreign Aid Allocations in Africa

Foreign aid plays an important role in promoting economic development in Africa. Recently, several countries, most notably China, have emerged as alternative sources of foreign aid. However, their motives for providing foreign aid have been questioned. The present study examines and compares determinants of China's and Japan's foreign aid allocations in Africa. It assumes that the distribution of foreign aid was determined by the aid donors’ self‐interest and also by the aid recipients’ needs. Three panel model methods, namely, the pooled OLS method, the one‐way fixed effects method and the two‐way fixed effects methods, were employed to examine and compare the patterns of China's and Japan's foreign aid allocation in Africa. The main finding was that the provision of foreign aid by China and Japan was primarily driven by the aid donors’ self‐interest. Additionally, the size of population in a recipient country was an important element to determine China's and Japan's aid allocations. The findings also suggest that Japan tended to pay more attention to the aid recipient countries’ needs as well as to the quality of governance and institutions in these countries. Overall, the findings indicate that there was no considerable difference in the motives for the provision of aid between the two aid donor countries.     

Changes in the development status of women in South Africa from 1996 to 2001: for the better or for the worse?

The adoption of the 1996 Constitution mainstreamed women's issues in South Africa, but, despite the commendable progress in this sphere over the past ten years, success is only discernible if it translates into the betterment of women's lives. This paper aims to ascertain whether the development status of women improved or worsened between 1996 and 2001 by employing a gender-adjusted human development index (HDI). To offset the limitations of an aggregate measure, while compensating for the potentially distorting effects of HIV/AIDS on an aggregate human development indicator, a framework of supporting measures of well-being is also analysed to augment and validate the findings of the gender-specific HDI. The study finds that between 1996 and 2001 the development status of women in South Africa regressed, in both absolute and (especially) relative terms.     

THE IMPLICATIONS OF SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR THE REST OF AFRICA

This paper measures the extent to which South African economic growth is an engine of growth in sub‐Saharan Africa. Results based on panel data estimation for 47 African countries over four decades suggest that South African growth has a substantial positive impact on growth in the rest of Africa, even after controlling for other growth determinants. The estimates are robust to the effects of global and regional shocks, changes in model specification, and sample period.     

PATTERNS OF CO‐MOVEMENT BETWEEN SOUTH AFRICA AND GERMANY: EVIDENCE FROM THE PERIOD 1985 TO 2006

This paper examines the co‐movement between Germany and South Africa by applying a dynamic factor model. Because these two countries have a long history of predominant trade ties, they deemed to be suitable proxies to analyse the channels of transmission of positive supply and demand shocks in a developed economy and the effects of these on an emerging market economy. In contrast to general expectations, the paper concludes that a German supply shock has more of a demand‐shock effect on the South African economy, while a German demand shock is transmitted through price in South Africa. This implies that the policy response in South Africa should not necessarily be the same as in Germany.     

IMPACT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF DIFFERENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH IN AN ECONOMY WITH HIGH INEQUALITY

The economic growth of South Africa has been disappointing over the last quarter century. This note addresses a conceptual problem that arises because of composition effects. Two important features of the South African economy are, first, its extreme inequality (primarily between the white population and the African population). Additionally, the African population has been growing rapidly, while the white population has experienced a declining share. This note derives an explicit equation for the impact of inequality and population-growth differences on the growth of per capita GDP. It shows that the combination of divergent population growth and high inequality can lead to an apparent drag on measured economic growth even though the components, and a more adequate measure of economic welfare, are growing at a healthy rate.     

中国在非跨国公司与国家形象

一些国家对中国在非洲投资及援助的关注,为中国在非跨国公司贴上了政治标签,从而渲染了中国对非洲战略的负面国家形象。与非洲国家经济发展利益相关的中国跨国公司,应成为塑造中国良好国家形象的重要载体。中国跨国公司积极履行企业社会责任,既有助于建构良好企业形象,也有利于形成中国尊重人权,是一个负责任大国的国际形象,进而促进中非传统友谊关系的发展与深化。