The impact of foreign direct investment and human capital on economic growth: Evidence from Chinese cities

Using a panel of Chinese cities over the period 1991–2010, we examine the determinants of economic growth, focusing on the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) and human capital. Consistent with the predictions of a human capital-augmented Solow model, we find that the growth rate (along the path to the steady-state income level) of per capita GDP is negatively correlated with population growth rate and positively correlated with investment rate in physical capital and human capital. We find that FDI has a positive effect on the per capita GDP growth rate and this effect is intensified by the human capital endowment of the city. The latter suggests that one way that human capital contributes to growth is to serve as a facilitator for technology transfers stemming from FDI. Furthermore, we find some suggestive evidence that the FDI-human capital complementary effect is stronger for technology-intensive FDI than for labor-intensive FDI. Our results are robust to alternative measures of human capital, model specifications, and estimation methods.     

FDI对我国制造业升级的影响研究——基于省级面板数据的实证

当前FDI流入我国增速已经放缓;然而,FDI流入高技术制造业的比重却正在提高。FDI流向正在发生的深刻变化将对我国制造业升级产生深远影响。在FDI流入总量及流向正发生深刻变化的新条件下,探讨如何更加合理有效地利用FDI,促推我国制造业升级,正成为急需探讨的新课题。本文运用1996~2014年中国省级面板数据,通过构建FGLS模型,对FDI影响制造业升级的效应进行了实证检验,结果表明：从全国层面来看,FDI对劳动密集型与技术密集型制造业发展都有明显的促推作用;而对资本密集型制造业的发展则存在较为明显的负向影响。从分地区层面来看,FDI促进了劳动密集型制造业从东部向中部地区转移,资本密集型制造业由东部向中、西部地区转移;此外,FDI还促进了东部地区技术密集型制造业占比提高。但是,FDI在西部对制造业的投资方向过于单一,主要集中于资本密集型制造业,这对我国西部地区制造业的长期发展不利。因而,要顺应FDI新变化,发挥政府宏观调控作用,更加合理、有效地利用好FDI。     

外商直接投资对零售业的溢出效应研究——基于省际面板数据的实证检验

运用2006—2018年省际面板数据分析对外直接投资(FDI)对中国零售业的溢出效应.结果显示,FDI对中国内资零售业的溢出效应和挤出效应并存:FDI的参与度会对中国内资零售业的技术进步产生负面影响,不利于FDI集聚性行业内溢出效应的产生;而外资零售企业的劳动生产率有利于中国内资企业的技术溢出,表现为FDI效率性行业内溢出效应.此外,企业规模在中部地区的影响更显著,资本密集度对中国内资零售业的技术进步具有显著的正向影响.     

China's economic development: does exchange rate and FDI nexus matter?

This study aims to investigate the relationship between China's exchange rate, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, and economic development. We applied the bound testing approach on aggregate level data from 1981 to 2013. The results showed that the Chinese economy benefitted from a lower exchange rate over this period, and that there was a direct link between FDI inflows and economic development on an aggregate level both in the long and short run. The results of the Granger causality test identified a long‐ and short‐run association among these variables. The GMM estimations with dummies for financial crises and RMB exchange rate policy fluctuations also confirmed the growth enhancing impact of the exchange rate and FDI inflows. To promote sustainable economic development in the future, China should focus on improving the levels of domestic investment and human capital, as well as supervising the level of openness and capital controls.     

Why does so much FDI from Hong Kong and Taiwan go to Mainland China?

While the European Union, the US, and Japan (the Triad) supply 90% of global foreign direct investment (FDI) and China is the second largest FDI recipient in the world, most FDI into China did not come from the Triad but from Hong Kong and Taiwan (HKT). Evidence presented in the paper reveals that the unusually large amount of Hong Kong–Taiwan direct investment (HKTDI) cannot be fully appreciated without understanding China's location characteristics and differences between HKTDI and the Triad FDI. Four determinants of the dominant HKTDI in China are identified: China's export-promotion FDI strategy, its large pool of cheap labor, HKT's specific advantages in export-oriented FDI, and their unique links with China (the Chinese connections). Empirical results suggest that HKTDI was primarily motivated by low labor costs while FDI from the Triad was market-oriented. As China's domestic markets become more open to foreign investors, the share of HKTDI may shrink and the importance of FDI from the Triad may rise.     

FDI对我国电子工业生产率的行业内溢出效应研究——以1996—2001年43个细分行业为例

本文考察了外资对中国电子工业劳动生产率的影响。利用1996—2001年期间电子行业的9大部门和43个细分行业的面板数据,并按照无形资产比率、出口比率和国有资本比率对43个细分行业进行了分组检验,我们发现,1996—2001年期间中国电子工业的劳动生产率呈现明显的外商直接投资的溢出效应,并且在不同的行业呈现较大的波动。在无形资产比率高、出口比率高、国有资本比率高的行业,外资对劳动生产率的促进作用显著,而在国有资本比率低、技术含量低的行业,外资对劳动生产率的促进作用不显著。国有企业在促进劳动生产率提高方面具有积极作用,说明国营企业引进外资是一种长期有效的学习跨国公司经验的途径。而且,跨国公司通常被高生产率的电子行业所吸引,在这些行业溢出效应明显存在,但对于一些外资比率低的电子行业,这种正溢出效应不显著。

Abstract：

This paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment（FDI）on the labor productivity of China’s electronics industry. Using panel data of 9 major sectors and 43 sub-sectorsof the electronics industry during the period 1996—2001,and doing group test according to the ratio of intangible assets,the export ratio and the state-owned capital ratio of the 43 sub-sectors,we find that during 1996—2001,labor productivity of the Chinese electronics industry showed significant spillover effects of FDI and large fluctuations in different industries. In industries that have high intangible assets ratio,high export ratio and high state-owned capital ratio,FDI played a more significant role in promoting labor productivity than in industries that have low state—owned capital ratio and low technology contents. State-owned enterprises has a positive effect in promoting labor productivity,indicating that introducing foreign investment is an effective long term route to learn transnational corporations’ experience for state-owned enterprises. Moreover,transnational corporations are always attracted to higher productivity sub-sectors,implying significant spillover effects in these industries,while in sub-sectors with low rate of foreign invest-ment,the spillover effect is not significant.     

Global Foreign Direct Investment Flows: The Role of Governance Infrastructure

It is widely argued that a country’s economic performance over time is determined to a great extent by its political, institutional and legal environment. We refer to these institutions and policies as the governance infrastructure of a country. We utilize newly developed indices to examine the effects of governance infrastructure on both foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and outflows for a broad sample of developed and developing countries over 1995–97. In addition, we examine the role of other forms of infrastructure including human capital and the environment. The results clearly indicate that governance infrastructure is an important determinant of both FDI inflows and outflows. Investments in governance infrastructure not only attract capital, but also create the conditions under which domestic multinational corporations emerge and invest abroad. It would appear that investments in governance infrastructure are subject to diminishing returns, so that the benefits, in terms of inflows, are most pronounced for smaller and developing economies.     

外商投资的技术溢出效应：基于企业特征视角的考察——以江苏为例

引进跨国公司先进技术和管理经验是中国吸收FDI主要目的之一。本文运用1990-2003年江苏制造业数据．实证检验企业外商所有权份额、内外资企业技术差距、内资企业规模及资本密集度与FDI溢出效应的关系，并对回归结果进行分析。结果显示，FDI存在着对内资企业正的溢出效应．但溢出规模并不是在任何情况下总是相等。溢出规模既取决于外商所有权份额、内外资企业技术差距，又与内资企业规模、资本密集度有关。防范外商行业垄断，形成有效的竞争市场；加速内资企业发展．提高对新技术的识别、模仿及自主创新能力；促使内外资企业人员双向流动，能够有效地发挥FDI对中国经济的促进作用。     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN ZIMBABWE: THE ROLE OF INSTITUTIONAL AND MACROECONOMIC FACTORS

The purpose of our research is to examine the impact of property rights on foreign direct investment (FDI) in Zimbabwe for the period 1964‐2005. While the macroeconomic determinants of FDI have been analysed to a considerable extent in past empirical work, the role of institutional factors such as the protection of property rights and the efficiency of the legal system has been underexplored. Using a multivariate cointegration framework, we use a newly constructed de jure property rights index for Zimbabwe to determine the impact of property rights on FDI. The empirical evidence shows that property rights are consistently an important explanatory variable of FDI in Zimbabwe, even after controlling for periods when there are no significant new foreign capital inflows. Other significant explanatory variables of FDI in Zimbabwe are the real gross domestic product (GDP), capital intensity, the external debt to GDP ratio, political instability as well as the educational levels.     

The Strategy of foreign-invested manufacturing enterprises in China: Export-orientated and market-orientated FDI revisited

This paper examines export-orientated and market-orientated foreign direct investment (FDI) in China's manufacturing industry. Based on Fung's () survey estimation of China's market-orientated FDI in 1992 and China's Third National Industrial Census in 1995, we quantify the proportion of market-orientated FDI in China 1992–2002. By combining and verifying various data sources, our estimation shows that market-orientated FDI accounts for the majority of China's total inward FDI in manufacturing industry and has grown faster than export-orientated FDI over the period 1992–2002. Our industry level analysis suggests that Overseas Chinese investors are more export-orientated than Western investors. The study suggests that many inward investors follow a dual market strategy. The coexistence of export-orientated and Chinese domestic market-orientated FDI is a reflection of the flexibility of MNEs to adjust and adapt ownership attributes to the local market context. The study offers insights into the evolutionary development path taken by foreign-invested manufacturing enterprises in China.     

PROSPECTS FOR SKILLS-BASED EXPORT GROWTH IN A LABOUR-ABUNDANT,RESOURCE-RICH DEVELOPING ECONOMY

In an integrated global economy, specialisation in trade is an increasingly prominent strategy. A labour-abundant, resource-rich economy like Indonesia faces stiff competition in labour-intensive manufactures; meanwhile, rapid growth in demand for resources from China and India exposes it to the ‘curse’ of resource wealth. This diminishes prospects for more diversified growth based on renewable resources like human capital. Using an international panel data set we explore the influence of resource wealth, foreign direct investment and human capital on the share of skill-intensive products in exports. FDI and human capital increase this share; resource wealth diminishes it. We use the results to compare Indonesia with Thailand and Malaysia. Indonesia's reliance on skill-intensive exports would have been greater had it achieved higher levels of FDI and skills. Its performance in accumulating these endowments, and its relative resource abundance, impede diversification in production and trade. We present policy options flowing from these findings.     

Uncovering the Relationship between FDI, Human Capital and Technological Progress in Chinese High-technology Industries

Using a panel dataset for 28 sub-industries from 5 Chinese industries from 1995 to 2006, this paper examines the impact of human capital, R＆D expenditure and FD1 spillover on the productivity improvement of Chinese high-technology industries. The whole industry sample results suggest that human capital promotes total factor productivity, technical change and technical efficiency change, but that FDI lowers all of these factors in Chinese high-technology industry. When we distinguish between types of ownership structure in the industries, we find that human capital improves technical change but lowers technical efficiency change, whereas FDI only improves technical efficiency change in state-owned and state-controlled enterprises but reduces technical change in state-owned and state-controlled enterprises and joint ventures.     

Foreign direct investment in China: Policy,recent trend and impact 1

One of the most important elements of China's economic reform has been the promotion of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow. Government polices on FDI have gone through different stages in their main objectives since the late‐1970s, from gradually opening to foreign investors, to actively encouraging inward investment, directing FDI in accordance with domestic industrial restructuring, and complying with China's World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations. FDI in China has experienced rapid growth especially since the mid‐1990s, as well as structural change. Most of the earlier investments were small scale, labor‐intensive and export‐oriented. In recent years, more investment has been large scale and more capital and technology intensive, aiming at both domestic and export markets. Moreover, increasingly more investment has come from the industrial world, and has located along the eastern coastal regions, in additional to the two southeastern provinces. FDI has played a crucial role in China's rapid growth, economic transition, and, mostly importantly, integration with the world. China's recent accession to the WTO provides more incentives to foreign investors. At the same time, it will also result in more intense competition for domestic firms.     

Dynamic relationship between China's inward and outward foreign direct investments

This paper studies the dynamic relationship of China's inward and outward foreign direct investments (FDI). It first identifies the key determinants of China's outward FDI (OFDI) in 172 host countries during 2003–2009 using a partial stock adjustment model. It finds strong evidence of dynamic adjustment in China's OFDI stock with an agglomeration effect. The dynamic adjustment and agglomeration effects are stronger in “high-tech” countries than in “low-tech” ones but indifferent in host country's resource endowments and income levels. The empirical results suggest that there exists a substantial adjustment cost in China's OFDI and that China's existing OFDI stock can gradually adjust toward its long-term equilibrium level, which is not only greater but also more volatile than the actual stock. Of particular interest is that we find a strong and positive relationship between lagged inward FDI (IFDI) and contemporaneous OFDI, implying that capital outflow from China has been partially induced by the countries which have invested in China.     

FDI,labor market flexibility and employment in China

This paper discusses the influence and underlying mechanisms of foreign direct investment (FDI) and the labor market on Chinese employment. We analyze data from 30 Chinese provinces and municipalities over the period 2000–2015, in the first instance to examine employment effects of both FDI and labor market flexibility through the moderating effect; here we verify the moderating effect with respect to labor market flexibility. Second, using subsamples, we explore the effects of regional and skill differences on the employment. Finally, to test the three mechanisms, we employ a mixed model of moderating and mediating effects. Contrary to previous studies, we observe a positive employment effect of FDI, with labor market flexibility playing a significant positive moderating role, a 1% increase in FDI is associated with an expected employment increase of 0.216. Additionally, wages, human capital, and R&D investment play positive mediating roles when labor market flexibility moderates the employment effect of FDI.     

China＇s FDI Net Inflow and Deterioration of Terms of Trade： Paradox and Explanation

Starting from the contradiction between China's sustained growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflow and deterioration of the terms of trade, this paper analyzes the characteristics of FDI sectoral structure since the 1990. Moreover, considering the international market competitive environment, this paper gives a concrete analysis of the influence mechanism and concludes that the flowing of FDI into labor‐intensive export sectors caused the deterioration of China's terms of trade. To improve its terms of trade, China needs to direct FDI inflow into capital‐ and technology‐intensive sectors and service sectors. (Edited by Xiaoming Feng)     

The role of foreign direct investment in Indonesia's manufacturing exports

This article examines whether foreign direct investment (FDI) has contributed to the changing structure of Indonesia's manufacturing exports. It uses industry-level data from 1990 to 2008, classified by factor intensity. Our analysis reveals that FDI promotes exports in most panel observations, especially exports from physical-capital-intensive (PCI), human-capital-intensive (HCI) and technology-intensive (TI) industries. Yet by applying a differentiated cross-section-effect model, we determine that the export-generating potential of FDI is stronger in PCI, HCI and TI industries than in natural-resource-intensive or unskilled-labour-intensive industries, in which Indonesia has a comparative advantage. We also assess the influence of other determinants of export performance – namely, private domestic capital investment, GDP growth and exchange rates. Our findings have implications for policymakers seeking to sustain Indonesia's export performance.     

FDI与我国高技术产业技术创新关系研究——基于2005-2014年省际面板数据

改革开放以来，中国大量吸引外商直接投资，期望以此提升国内的技术创新能力。然而，在当前的背景下，我国期望通过FDI提高技术创新能力的目标是否已经实现？我国各地区高新技术产业究竟需不需要外资？等问题值得我们深入研究。实证结果表明：FDI对我国东部地区高技术产业的影响为正，对其他地区影响为负。因此，应当根据我国各地区高技术产业发展水平，实施差异化引资策略，加强知识积累、人力资本建设，为高技术产业的发展提供基础。     

自主创新背景下的FDI技术溢出效应——以我国长三角地区为例

本文基于长三角地区2000年-2007年的统计数据，通过对外资引进现状的考察，建立面板数据模型来研究FDI技术外溢效应。实证分析表明，FDI在长三角地区存在显著的正向的技术外溢效应，长三角地区开放的市场环境和自主创新能力对FDI的技术外溢产生了正面影响。此外，具有高等教育水平的人力资本对FDI技术外溢效应的发挥有明显的促进作用，而具有中等教育水平的人力资本的作用较小且不显著。     

Does Foreign Direct Investment Provide Desirable Development Finance？ The Case of China

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is often considered as a cost-effective and risk-reducing source for development finance. This paper,however,shows that FDI finance often entails underestimated risks and costs. FDI might react sensitively to business cycles and might not be as "permanent" as conventionally believed. FDI might also accelerate other forms of capital flow in times of financial difficulties and,hence,destabilize financial order. In addition to the risks,compensations to FDI and the high import-dependency of FDI-related trade lead to a considerable drain on the balance of payments. Moreover,the reliance on foreign capital for development finance is equivalent to building a Ponzi financing scheme and,therefore,is unsustainable. Given the fact that FDI financing is risky and costly and China does not lack savings,it is suggested in the present paper that China's efforts in attracting FDI should not aim at external capital provisioning.