退耕还林:成本有效性、结构调整效应与经济可持续性-基于西部三省农户调查的实证分析

退耕还林工程是一项规模宏大的生态工程,其经济效率、预期效果和可持续性是全社会广为关注的问题。本文使用中国科学院农业政策研究中心2003年对西部三省(陕西、甘肃和四川)退耕还林地区进行的农户抽样调查数据,对退耕还林工程的成本有效性和工程在经济上的可持续性进行了评估。我们发现退耕还林工程在实施过程中表现出较高的瞄准效率和较低的成本有效性(存在较大的成本节约空间)。计量分析发现工程在促进农民增收和结构调整方面作用甚微,因此其经济可持续性存在很大的疑问。另外,本文还就退耕还林工程的操作程序、政策改善的方向等进行了讨论。     

退耕还林：成本有效性、结构调整效应与经济可持续性——基于西部三省农户调查的实证分析

退耕还林工程是一项规模宏大的生态工程，其经济效率、预期效果和可持续性是全社会广为关注的问题。本使用中国科学院农业政策研究中心2003年对西部三省(陕西、甘肃和四川)退耕还林地区进行的农户抽样调查数据。对退耕还林工程的成本有效性和工程在经济上的可持续性进行了评估。我们发现退耕还林工程在实施过程中表现出较高的瞄准效率和较低的成本有效性(存在较大的成本节约空间)。计量分析发现工程在促进农民增收和结构调整方面作用甚微，因此其经济可持续性存在很大的疑问。另外，本还就退耕还林工程的操作程序、政策改善的方向等进行了讨论。     

国内外退耕还林工程的研究与比较

退耕还林还草工程是一项涉及国家、地方、个人利益全面调整的综合系统工程,其政策实施的经济效率、预期效果和可持续性已日益成为全社会广为关注的问题.本文研究了国外退耕还林工程的背景、实施状况,并结合国内的退耕还林工程进行了对比研究,最终得出了国外退耕还林工程对我国退耕还林工程实施的启示.     

国内外退耕还林工程的研究与比较

退耕还林还草工程是一项涉及国家、地方、个人利益全面调整的综合系统工程,其政策实施的经济效率、预期效果和可持续性已日益成为全社会广为关注的问题。本文研究了国外退耕还林工程的背景、实施状况,并结合国内的退耕还林工程进行了对比研究,最终得出了国外退耕还林工程对我国退耕还林工程实施的启示。     

退耕还林工程经济可持续性的实证分析——以陕西省为例

退耕还林工程是我国为解决水土流失、土地沙化等生态环境问题而采取的重大举措．作为国家的一项规模浩大的生态工程．其实施后的经济可持续性成为社会广泛关注的问题。本文以陕西省为例，利用2005年和2003年中国科学院农业政策研究中心（CCAP）对陕西省退耕地区进行的农户抽样调查数据．采用实证的方法，分析了工程实施后对农户的收入结构产生的影响，论证了工程的经济可持续性，并在最后提出了相关的政策建议。     

后退耕时代农户退耕成果维护意愿及其影响因素分析

退耕还林是一项系统生态工程,其成果的可持续性在很大程度上取决于参与农户的维护意愿。文章通过二元逻辑回归法,分析影响农户维护意愿的因素,以及不同因素对农户退耕成果维护意愿的影响机理。结果表明,在以农户追求自身经济利益最大化的决策前提下,其自身农产品供给能力、向工副业转移的能力,以及造林的经济效益和生态效益是影响农户的维护意愿的显著因素。因此,政府深度参与、完善相关政策并引入市场机制有助于提高退耕还林工程的可持续性。     

西部退耕还林工程政策体系的协调性——以鹤庆县、织金县、安定区、宜川县为例

以云南省鹤庆县、贵州省织金县、甘肃省安定区和陕西省宜川县为例,采用层次分析法对退耕还林工程政策体系协调性进行评价.同时依据综合距离值的计算方法,说明判断退耕还林工程政策体系协调性高低的标准.评价结果显示,退耕还林工程政策体系协调性处于一般水平,其中织金县、宜川县政策目标系统协调性排首位,鹤庆县、安定区政策手段系统协调性排首位.在探明实施中制约退耕还林工程有效性和持续性的社会变量的基础上,提出了提高退耕还林工程政策体系协调性的对策建议.     

我国退耕还林生态影响及其评估研究进展

改善生态环境是我国退耕还林工程的核心目标，工程建设的生态影响与可持续性备受关注，对工程进行全面、客观的生态影响评估尤为重要。本文回顾了退耕还林的理论与实践基础，总结了已有研究中退耕还林生态影响评估的角度、定性与定量评估方法，以及对小范围内治理效果的评述。本文在肯定已有研究对退耕还林生态影响评估的积极意义的同时，认为应进一步研究如何解决好评估角度的选取、评估方法的完善和评估结果的可比性等问题。     

辽宁西部地区退耕还林后续产业发展研究

退耕还林工程是中国六大林业工程之一,1999年在全国部分省市开始试点,辽宁省退耕还林工程从2001年国家确定彰武、北票、凌源、建昌四个试点县实施,2002年在全省全面铺开。由于自然地理条件及社会经济发展水平等因素的限制,辽宁退耕还林后续产业发展参差不齐,总体上辽东地区好于辽西地区。辽西地区退耕还林发展的好与坏直接影响到全省退耕还林成果的巩固,因此,加快西部地区退耕还林后续产业发展是至关重要的。也是迫在眉睫的。文章主要以辽宁西部地区的彰武、北票和建平三个典型地区为例,分析了退耕还林后续产业的主要发展模式和经营模式,在以农户入户调查和访问方式取得第一手资料基础上,对退耕还林后续产业的有效性进行了分析,进一步总结了辽宁西部地区退耕还林后续产业发展中成功经验及存在的问题,提出了加快退耕还林后续产业发展的对策。     

从退耕还林政策与土地征用政策之比较论退耕还林政策的可持续性

土地征用政策和退耕还林政策都是国家为了特定目的需要将农用地(耕地)转为非农用地(工业用地和林地、草地)的强制性政策,但是在实施中却产生了不同的结果。文章在分析土地征用政策和退耕还林政策共性的基础上,从权力的转移与约束、对农民的补偿、合同的可逆性、对政府的影响和政策实施效果等五个方面对退耕还林政策和土地征用政策进行了比较分析。通过分析比较的基础上,提出了保证退耕还林政策可持续性的实施建议。     

Building smallholder farmers' capacity to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices in flood prone areas: Lessons from Bangladesh

Currently, there is an increased interest in promoting climate-smart agricultural practices (CSAPs) around the globe, however, application of these practices may vary for different climate risk hotspots. Although, climate field schools (CFS) are conducted with the aim of empowering farmers with knowledge on the various agricultural practices, little attention has been devoted to building the capacity of smallholder farmers to facilitate adoption of appropriate CSAPs. Given the effects of climate change on agriculture, it is fundamental for agricultural sustainability to answer the question that has hardly benefited from empirical analysis in previous land use studies, which is: Do CFS build farmers' capacity to adopt CSA in flood prone areas? Cross-sectional data from 600 rural farm households in south Bangladesh is used and the recursive bivariate probit (RBP) is applied to address this knowledge gap. The results reveal that participation in CFS increases the probability of a farmer's soil salinity consciousness by 25% and eventually improves the probability to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices by 20%. We also analyzed the spillover effects of CFS participation on CSA adoption and found that there is a strong spillover effect which has important implications on the cost effectiveness and sustainability of the program. Overall, the study provides empirical evidence demonstrating that participatory approaches stimulate adoption of appropriate CSAPs by building farmers' capacity in recognizing the existing climate risk hotspots.     

Costing the Job Compact*

The budgetary cost of any government program should be measured by its impact on the public sector budget balance, over its effective timeframe. Typically, official cost estimates focus on the value of outlays only, and thus create a misleading impression of the opportunity cost of some policy initiatives. This paper offers estimates of the budgetary cost of the Job Compact, using a simple labour force transition flows model of unemployment. Deadweight, displacement and effectiveness impacts are explicitly addressed. We find that, depending on the values chosen for displacement and effectiveness parameters, budgetary cost can be greater or less than outlay estimates. However, for plausible values of these parameters, the budgetary cost is calculated to be substantially lower than official estimates, and may even be negative.     

GASOLINE PRICES,GOVERNMENT SUPPORT,AND THE DEMAND FOR HYBRID VEHICLES IN THE UNITED STATES*

We analyze the determinants of hybrid vehicle demand, focusing on gasoline prices and income tax incentives. We find that hybrid vehicle sales in 2006 would have been 37% lower had gasoline prices stayed at the 1999 levels, and the effect of the federal income tax credit program is estimated at 20% in 2006. Under the program, the cost of reducing gasoline consumption was $75 per barrel in government revenue and that of CO₂ emission reduction was $177 per ton. We show that the cost effectiveness of federal tax programs can be improved by a flat rebate scheme.     

Collusive behaviour under cost asymmetries when firms compete in supply functions

This paper investigates the effect of cost heterogeneity in cartel formation and its sustainability over time when firms compete in supply functions under uncertainty. We find that cartel formation and collusion sustainability are hindered as cost differences increase. Efficiency losses caused by collusive behaviour are shown to decrease as asymmetry increases and, therefore, welfare losses also decrease. We compare our results with those obtained under Cournot and Bertrand competition.     

Regional sustainability: How useful are current tools of sustainability assessment at the regional scale?

Sustainability assessment methods are primarily aimed at global, national or state scales. However, modelling sustainability at finer spatial scales, such as the region, is essential for understanding and achieving sustainability. Regions are emerging as an essential focus for sustainability researchers, natural resource managers and strategic planners working to develop and implement sustainability goals. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of current sustainability assessment methods - ecological footprint, wellbeing assessment, ecosystem health assessment, quality of life and natural resource availability - at the regional scale. Each of these assessment methods are tested using South East Queensland (SEQ) as a case study. It was selected because of its ecological and demographic diversity, its combination of coastal and land management issues, and its urban metropolitan and rural farm and non-farm communities. The applicability of each of these methods to regional assessment was examined using an evaluation criteria matrix, which describes the attributes of an effective method and the characteristics that make these methods useful for regional management and building community capacity to progress sustainability. We found that the methods tested failed to effectively measure progress toward sustainability at the regional scale, demonstrating the need for a new method for assessing regional sustainability.     

How not to measure sustainable value (and how one might)

Sustainability is a complex multidimensional concept that entails economic, environmental, and social aspects. The sustainable value (SV) method developed by F. Figge and T. Hahn [Ecol. Econ. 48(2004) 173-187] is one of the most promising attempts to measure sustainability performance of firms. SV measures corporate contributions to sustainability by valuing resource use based on the opportunity cost, which must be estimated. This paper critically examines Figge and Hahn's estimator for opportunity cost, and shows that the proposed estimator rests on a number of strong, unrealistic assumptions. Evidence from Monte Carlo simulations conducted by authors shows that the proposed estimator performs very poorly even under ideal conditions. Having identified shortcomings in the SV method, we review some econometric approaches with a proven statistical foundation, which might be usefully applied in the present context.     

JobKeeper: An Initial Assessment

We present details of the design and implementation of the 2020–2021 JobKeeper program and review the literature on its impacts. JobKeeper stimulated the macroeconomy and restrained job loss in the downturn. But because the program was not narrowly targeted, the cost per job saved was high and the impact most likely regressive. However, it would not have been possible to devise and implement a more targeted program in the available time, and as it was, JobKeeper was arguably implemented later than needed for maximum effectiveness. We therefore recommend that Australia consider establishing a short-time work program for use in future recessions.     

Model for evaluating the environmental sustainability of energy projects

This article focuses on the problem of assessing the environmental sustainability of energy projects. For this purpose an original model, which is based on various indicators that measure the environmental sustainability of energy projects, has been developed. This model, so called index of environmental sustainability of energy projects (IESEP), can be used in scenario comparison, while measuring the effectiveness of the proposed alternatives. Finally, an example of how to use this model is provided by analyzing alternatives to ameliorate the environmental sustainability of a hydroelectric project. In doing so, it is possible to show the usefulness of this model when used as a decision making tool for energy planners.     

论比较优势的成本基础——从生产成本向“全成本”的拓展

贸易理论的历史演进表明,比较优势是一国参与国际分工和贸易的基本动因。古典、新古典和新贸易理论分别从劳动生产率、要素禀赋、生产规模等不同视角论证了基于生产成本的比较优势,进而可表达为"相对生产成本不等式"。随着制度、生态环境、"可持续性"等要素在国际贸易中日趋重要,使用制度要素所形成的交易成本、使用生态环境要素所形成的环境成本、耗费"可持续性"要素所形成的代际成本也逐步成为比较优势的成本基础。于是,可将使用或耗费广义要素的代价理解为"全成本",它构成了一国参与国际分工和贸易的比较优势的基础。     

Policy for Poverty Alleviation and Income Redistribution with Quasi-Public Goods

This paper proposes a theoretical framework for a poverty‐alleviation program with quasi‐public goods and presents four main effects. First, this policy succeeds in self‐selection, which identifies low‐productive persons under imperfect information and allows them to receive at least the minimum income. Second, we can observe income redistribution by this scheme without any taxes. Third, the program contributes cost‐effectiveness in many cases. Finally, it makes clear that this policy is suitable, especially in areas where low‐income people are concentrated.