企业发展战略的制定

“战略”这个概念最初只存在于军事领域，战争讲究方略，战争方略的简称就是“战略”。战争讲究战略也讲究战术。战略与战术都是谋略，但也有区别。战略针对全局，战术针对局部；战略针对长远，战术针对当前。1965年，美国的一位经济学家发表了一篇论文，题目是《企业战略论》。从此以后，“战略”这个概念就进入了企业管理领域。     

强强联合探索配送新模式

惠尔物流和上海家化历经10年的磨合，由局部到全程，由短期到长期，由战术到战略，打造了城市配送业务成功联动的典范。     

浅析职务侵占罪

文章较为详尽的论述了我国职务侵占罪的渊源、概念、构成特征及司法认定，具体分析了职务侵占罪与侵占罪、挪用资金罪、贪污罪、诈骗罪、盗窃罪之间的区别。重点就职务侵占罪的构成特征及在司法实践中的认定谈了自己的观点。     

EVA综合平衡计分卡的探讨

平衡计分卡用顾客、内部经营过程、学习和创新三个方面的非财务指标补充传统的评价指标，是一种企业战略转化为联系战略内涵和激励业绩的评价体系。“平衡”之意为要兼顾战略与战术、长期和短期目标、财务和非财务衡量方法、滞后和先行指标，以及内部和外部业绩等许多方面。平衡计分卡在评价企业业绩方面有非常突出的优势，但它也有不足之处．本文通过对EVA在企业业绩评价中的运用的研讨，试图找到平衡计分卡与EVA相互补充的地方，以对其进行改进和完善。     

推行综合平衡记分卡的战略目标与实践

平衡计分卡是由哈佛商学院罗伯特·卡普兰和企业咨询顾问大卫·诺顿,共同开发的一种绩效考评和战略管理工具,其由财务、客户、内部业务流程、学习与成长四个相互联系的部分组成,为每一部分设计适当的评价指标,赋予不同的权重,形成一套完整的业绩评价指标体系。该方法平衡兼顾了战略与战术、长期与短期目标、财务和非财务衡量方法、滞后和先行指标,以及外部和内部的业绩等多个方面,在企业业绩评价中的优越     

Flash动画与传统动画之比较

本文主要论述了Flash动画与传统动画的概念和发展史、区别和联系以及各自的优缺点。     

谈企业核心竞争力

本文从企业核心竞争力的内涵和特征出发，对与企业核心竞争力相关的一些概念及其区别进行了论述。     

浅析职务侵占罪

文章较为详尽的论述了我国职务侵占罪的渊源、概念、构成特征及司法认定,具体分析了职务侵占罪与侵占罪、挪用资金罪、贪污罪、诈骗罪、盗窃罪之间的区别。重点就职务侵占罪的构成特征及在司法实践中的认定谈了自己的观点。     

顾客终身价值与战略管理会计目标

本文在综述了营销领域的最新研究成果顾客终身价值理论的基础上，讨论了这一理论时战略管理会计目标之间的区别与联系。以期能对顾客终身价值在战略管理会计目标中的应用有所补益。     

全球化和电子商务背景下的采购战略

提出了全球电子采购战略U型曲线的概念，论述了全球电子化采购的战略原则，采购职能分解和区别管理，在此基础上，论述了全球采购操作中心的形成和作用，提出全球采购操作中心应该从成本中心向利润中心转变，最后，提出了应该从流程和产品的角度综合制定采购外包战略。     

Combination of long term and short term forecasts, with application to tourism demand forecasting

Forecast combination is a well-established and well-tested approach for improving the forecasting accuracy. One beneficial strategy is to use constituent forecasts that have diverse information. In this paper we consider the idea of diversity being accomplished by using different time aggregations. For example, we could create a yearly time series from a monthly time series and produce forecasts for both, then combine the forecasts. These forecasts would each be tracking the dynamics of different time scales, and would therefore add diverse types of information. A comparison of several forecast combination methods, performed in the context of this setup, shows that this is indeed a beneficial strategy and generally provides a forecasting performance that is better than the performances of the individual forecasts that are combined.As a case study, we consider the problem of forecasting monthly tourism numbers for inbound tourism to Egypt. Specifically, we consider 33 individual source countries, as well as the aggregate. The novel combination strategy also produces a generally improved forecasting accuracy.     

Government debt,learning and the term structure

Does a change in the public׳s holdings of government debt affect the term structure of interest rates? Empirical analysis using a VAR model indicates that a rise in these holdings of the real debt-to-GDP ratio increases both the three-month and ten-year U.S. nominal yields in a statistically significant manner. The maturity composition of debt is also found to matter: innovations in holdings of long-term debt affect the term structure, while increases in short-term debt affect inflation expectations. These effects of changes in holdings of debt on the yield curve can be derived in a general equilibrium model in which the government issues exponentially-maturing riskless debt, financed by lump-sum taxes, and the optimizing agents are adaptive learners. On calibrating the average maturity of debt in the model to match that of U.S. Treasury debt since the 1980s, I find that positive innovations in government debt lead to increases in asset yields. This is because agents do not learn the principle of Ricardian equivalence exactly, and perceive increases in holdings of government bonds as a rise in their net wealth. Imposing rational expectations on the agents eliminates this channel, and changes in holdings of government debt have no effect on yields. The learning model also implies that as the real debt-to-GDP ratio increases, and the average maturity of debt becomes longer, the agents become less likely to learn that Ricardian equivalence holds.     

Near unit roots,cointegration, and the term structure of interest rates

The term structure of interest rates is often modelled as a cointegrated system with the yield spreads forming the cointegrating vectors. Testing whether the yield spreads span the cointegration space is problematic because conventional tests on the cointegration vectors tend to overreject when the largest autoregressive roots deviate from unity, as is likely to be the case with interest rates. A new test that is robust w.r.t. deviations from the exact unit root assumption is developed and applied to monthly US interest rate data from 1952:1–1991:2. Taking into account the regime shift in 1979, the hypothesis of the yield spreads being the cointegrating vectors cannot be rejected using the robust test. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bond risk, bond return volatility, and the term structure of interest rates

This paper explores the time variation in the bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yields on long- and short-term bonds forecasts future excess returns on bonds at varying horizons positively; in addition, the short-term nominal interest rate forecasts both the stock return volatility and the exchange rate volatility positively. This paper presents evidence that movements in both the short-term nominal interest rate and the yield spread are positively related to changes in the subsequent realized bond risk and bond return volatility. The yield spread appears to proxy for business conditions, while the short rate appears to proxy for inflation and economic uncertainty. A decomposition of bond betas into a real cash flow risk component and a discount rate risk component shows that yield spreads have offsetting effects in each component. A widening yield spread is correlated with a reduced cash-flow (or inflationary) risk for bonds, but it is also correlated with a larger discount rate risk for bonds. The short rate only forecasts the discount rate component of the bond beta.     

UK medium‐term prospects: steady,but unspectacular

• Rapid expansion of the labour supply and robust business investment means that potential output is likely to have grown strongly last year. Therefore, based upon the latest data for GDP, we estimate that the output gap only narrowed very slightly in 2014, ending the year at 4% of potential output.
• The prospects for potential output growth are favourable, with the labour supply set to be boosted by sustained strength in inward migration and the staged increase in the State Pension Age, and robust growth in business investment continuing to deepen the capital stock.
• This will provide the conditions for relatively strong growth and low inflation over the medium term, with GDP growth expected to average 2.6% a year from 2015–19. This is some way below the average of the decade prior to the financial crisis, but it would represent a clear step up on the average growth rate achieved between 2007–14.
• Our estimate of the output gap is much larger than that of the OBR. This suggests that the UK's structural deficit is smaller and that the degree to which fiscal policy needs to be tightened may not be as great as the OBR estimates.

     

The Medium term Outlook

In this Forecast Release we consider the prospects for the economy after the present phase of cyclical recovery. Our central forecast, which we regard as the best medium-term planning assumption, is that the economy slows down to a sustainable growth rate of around 1% per cent. This is in line with the underlying growth of productive capacity but not sufficient to cure unemployment. We recognise that in practice the economy may be pushed away from the underlying growth trajectory by random shocks, and we look at three major risks surrounding the present forecast: a rise in the savings ratio; a slower world recovery; and a cut in investment. We contend that the most serious of these risks is to investment, since the company sector will face a major increase in its tax bill from 1985-6 onwards. A growth recession is thus distinctly possible in 1986, which could, for economic and electoral reasons, be the low point of the present cycle.     

新股短期估值对长期收益率的影响

中国股市整体长期处于估值较高水平,而“炒新”使得新股的短期估值更是远高于市场平均水平。本文从估值回归的角度考察新股“炒新”后短期估值水平对新股长期收益率的影响。结论表明,行政性的IPO暂停使得新股资源供不应求,从而新股“炒新”后短期估值水平较高。而新股短期估值越高,其长期超额收益率水平越低。因此“炒新”后新股存在着一定的估值回归现象。     

The term structure of volatility predictability

Volatility forecasting is crucial for portfolio management, risk management, and pricing of derivative securities. Still, little is known about the accuracy of volatility forecasts and the horizon of volatility predictability. This paper aims to fill these gaps in the literature. We begin this paper by introducing the notions of spot and forward predicted volatilities and propose describing the term structure of volatility predictability by spot and forward forecast accuracy curves. Then, we perform a comprehensive study of the term structure of volatility predictability in stock and foreign exchange markets. Our results quantify the volatility forecast accuracy across horizons in two major markets and suggest that the horizon of volatility predictability is significantly longer than that reported in earlier studies. Nevertheless, the aforesaid horizon is observed to be much shorter than the longest maturity of traded derivative contracts.     

Monetary policy and the term premium

The term premium has become increasingly important in discussions of monetary policy formulation. This paper reviews two approaches to embedding a variable term premium into an otherwise standard modern DSGE model. The first approach maintains frictionless asset trade but alters preferences so that agents are more averse to the risk in long bonds. The second approach uses traditional preferences, but segments asset trade between long and short bonds. Policy issues are also discussed.