气温对中国人口迁移的影响——基于285个城市的动态效应分析

随着全球气候变暖趋势逐渐加剧,气温变化不仅给人类生产生活带来了巨大变化,也对人口迁移产生了深远影响。基于2009—2021年中国城市气温和迁移人口面板数据,运用固定效应和系统广义矩估计(guneralized method of moments, GMM)法检验气温变化对人口迁移的影响。结果表明,气温变化与人口迁移间存在显著非线性相关关系,人口迁移行为更易受到上期决策的影响;存在区域异质性,中温带和亚热带地区人口迁移显著受到气温的影响;碳排放对人口迁移的影响显著为负,而低碳与新能源汽车试点政策对人口迁移呈显著的正向影响。本文提供的气温对人口迁移影响证据可为政府采取积极措施应对极端高温频发趋势,以及气温变化给人口迁移带来的潜在挑战提供科学依据。     

新疆区域内人口迁移现状及效果评价

人口迁移对区域经济和社会发展将产生重要影响,需要统筹考虑。本文根据第六次全国人口普查新疆数据,以新疆南疆、北疆和东疆地区为研究单元,从迁移数量、性别、年龄、受教育水平、职业、迁移流向和迁移原因等七个方面分析了新疆区域内人口迁移的现状,即区域内迁移人口呈现“北多南少”的态势、净迁移人口中女性人口多于男性人口、中青年人口是新疆区域内迁移人口的主体、迁移人口教育水平呈现“北高南低”的态势等,同时认为务工经商和随迁家属是区域内人口迁移的主要原因;最后对新疆区域内人口迁移的效果进行了评价。     

Lifecourse migration and redistribution of the elderly across U.S. regions and metropolitan areas

This analysis investigates the assertion that the baby-boom cohorts, by virtue of their large size and new lifecourse redistribution tendencies, are likely to initiate significant shifts in the distribution of the elderly population as these cohorts enter into the 65-and-older age categories. The author contends that cohorts' pre-elderly lifecourse migration patterns should be incorporated into studies of elderly population distribution shifts. 2 questions are addressed: will the new lifecourse migration patterns provide for a more deconcentrated redistribution of the baby-boom cohorts, both prior to and after their entry into the elderly age categories, than the lifecourse migration patterns followed by earlier cohorts; and will the new lifecourse distribution pattern lead, in the long run, to a significantly more deconcentrated distribution of the elderly population. The examination of these 2 questions focuses, largely, on redistribution across 9 broad regional and metropolitan area groupings defined on the basis of 3 census regions -- the North (combining the Northeast and Midwest census regions), the South, and the West -- and 3 categories of metropolitan status -- large metropolitan areas (those with 1980 populations exceeding 1 million), other metropolitan areas, and nonmetropolitan areas. The comparison of "new" versus "old" lifecourse migration patterns contrasts the census-based age-specific migration stream rates, registered over the 1975-80 period, with those registered over the 1965-70 period. Given the sharp and broad-based shift toward deconcentrated redistribution which characterized practically all segments of the population during the 1970s, it is assumed that the age-specific migration patterns observed over the 1975-80 period approximate the more deconcentrated redistribution tendencies which will be adopted by the baby-boom cohorts (and their successors) over the remainder of their lifecourse. The 1965-70 net migration rates point up the aggregate redistribution implications associated with the "old" lifecourse migration stream patterns. Among the rates for North large metropolitan areas, the only positive net migration is observed for the 25-29 age category; the greatest net outmigration rate is shown for the 65-69 age category. The rates for South nonmetropolitan areas are negative for all age categories under age 55, and most accentuated outmigration is shown during the young-adult years. The positive net migration exhibited for the older adult and post retirement ages reflects the low outmigration rates from nonmetropolitan areas during these ages and the slight peaking of immigration for these years. The results of this analysis imply that more attention should be devoted to migration, over the entirety of the lifecourse, in future studies of population redistribution.     

城镇化2.0的新动力与新特征——基于手机用户大数据的分析

我国城镇化动力已出现结构性变化,城乡人口迁移不再是城镇化第一动力。城城之间人口流动规模加大,城市之间日常人口流动的重要性日益凸显,我国已进入以核心大城市边界扩张为主要形态的都市圈化阶段。本文利用百度地图慧眼大数据量化城市网络间的人口往来,识别出20个都市圈,并从四个新视角评估我国城镇化发展的新特征。为有效发挥都市圈化蕴含的结构性增长动力,国土空间规划要充分考虑大数据所反映出的城镇化新特征;在各都市圈内应设立跨行政区域协调委员会,实现公共服务资源均衡化;利用以公共交通为导向的(TOD)模式开发都市圈。     

农村城市化中人口迁移问题研究——基于刘易斯与托达罗理论的分析

文章从发展经济学的角度,对农村人口迁移理论作了简要回顾,重点论述了刘易斯的二元经济论与托达罗模型,并结合我国农村城市化过程中人口迁移的实际情况,探讨人口迁移对我国农村城市化发展带来的影响,并提出在这一过程中要注意的一些问题。     

美国流动人口管理及对我国的启示

人口作为生产者和消费者以及科学技术的载体,其流动不是简单的转移,人口流动是市场经济机制内在规律作用的必然结果,同时,又是导致生产方式和生活方式的改变以及社会经济结构变化的重要因素。美国是世界上人口流动最高的国家,每年大约有20%的人口在流动。包括国际人口流动和国内人口流动,这两股潮流汇集形成美国人口流动的总体特征。本文对美国的人口现状及特点分析的基础上,简要介绍了美国人口管理体制与相关政策,最后总结出可供我国在流动人口管理中借鉴的经验。     

The effect of immigration quotas on the average quality of migrating labor and income distribution

In this paper, the authors develop "a simple two-country, single-period model to study the effect of quota restrictions on the composition of migrating labor. [They] have divided the migrant population in two general categories called high skilled and low skilled and have shown that free migration of any category of labor occurs if and only if the country's share of world resources is different from its share of the world labor endowment in that category." Two possible outcomes, given differing labor endowments and income differentials, are considered. The potential effect of illegal immigration is also noted. The authors conclude that their model "is applicable not only to 'brain drain' problems, but also to guest worker programs and/or the mass migration of low skilled workers from poor countries to rich countries."     

人口迁移对区域经济增长地区差异的影响分析——以陕西省为例

人口的大规模迁移流动是改革开放后我国经济社会发展的主要特征之一,其流动态势与区域之间的经济差距逐渐扩大趋势相耦合。文章以我国西部地区人口迁移与经济增长之间的关系为研究对象,以陕西省为例,分析迁移对省内各地级市的经济地区差距的影响。通过运用泰尔指数以及灰色关联度分析等方法,证明了迁移流动人口与区域经济发展具有极高的关联度。建立的人口迁移与经济增长之间计量模型的结果显示：1991—2004年期间劳动力流动有助于缩小地区间经济差距,使区域经济呈现出速度大于3％的条件收敛。并且人口迁移要素对经济增长的贡献显著,资本投入对经济增长也具有强大的推动作用。     

Migration,population aging,and income inequality in China

In this study, we examine the effects of four demographic factors, namely, birth, death, natural aging, and net migration, on population aging and income inequality in China. We use the official Chinese data and the China Household Income Project Survey data for the 2007–2013 period and apply a decomposition model based on the Shapley method. Unlike previous studies, we include migration in our decomposition model and find that natural aging is the primary factor contributing to population aging in both urban and rural areas. Further, migration may accelerate population aging in rural areas. Moreover, migration contributes to reducing income inequality in urban areas, while widening income inequality in rural areas. The effect of migration is larger than those of birth, death, and natural aging on income inequality. The robustness checks confirm these conclusions.     

国家重点生态功能区产业准入负面清单制度配套人口政策研究

基于国家重点生态功能区产业准入负面清单制度,分析其对区域人口的影响以及相应配套的人口政策和改革路径。研究表明,产业准入负面清单实施将改变人口城镇化的经济驱动力、改变劳动力市场并加快人口迁移。配套人口政策的核心应为控制人口总量、促进人口迁移和城镇化、推动人口教育与扶贫。针对负面清单编制各阶段的特点和需求,配套相应的人口政策,综合使用强制性、激励性、指导型、信息型和服务型等多样化的人口政策工具。     

江苏省外来人口结构实证研究:户口登记地与迁移原因——基于“五普”的数据分析

江苏省是外来人口流入比较多的省分之一,而苏南地区是江苏省外来人口最主要的流入地,苏南地区流入的人口规模明显地大于苏中与苏北地区.外省外来人口的规模分布具有显著的地理距离、人口规模、经济发展水平等特征.外来人口的迁移原因主要是务工经商、拆迁搬家、学习培训与婚姻迁入.     

Rural–urban migration and urbanization in China: Evidence from time-series and cross-section analyses

Since 1978, China has experienced a rapid and unprecedented process of urbanization, created by the history's largest flow of rural–urban migration in the world. This article attempts (a) to assess the role of the cityward migration in China's urbanization in 1978–1999 and (b) to empirically investigate factors behind the migration boom with time-series and cross-section data. We find that (a) rural–urban migration made dominant contributions to Chinese urban population growth; (b) while moving together with the Chinese economy, the causal link runs from economic growth to migration, not vice versa; (c) interprovince migrants were encouraged by the rural–urban income gap and discouraged by their geographic distances to destinations; and (d) the amount of intraprovince migrants is positively related to rural–urban income gap and urban population in that province.     

Gravity Models of Interregional Migration in Indonesia

This article explores the determinants of interregional migration in Indonesia. Employing basic and modified (extended) gravity models, and using data from the 2000 and 2010 Population Censuses and the 2005 Intercensal Population Survey, we test Long’s (1985) hypothesis that in the early stages of population redistribution, economic development is positively related to a concentration of the population. Using per-capita GDP as a proxy for income and as an indicator of economic development, we find that migration in Indonesia is indeed directed towards more developed regions. This finding supports the notion that regional disparities in development are an important factor in interregional migration in Indonesia. In line with classical gravity models, our findings show that distance is negatively related to the size of migration flows. However, unlike previous studies of interprovincial migration in Indonesia, we find that the effect of distance has weakened over time.     

Environmental Efficiency and the Optimal Size of Chinese Cities

The spatial distribution of population and economic activities has important impacts on both economic growth and the environment. This paper uses a slack‐based measure to estimate the total factor environmental efficiency (TFEE) of 286 Chinese prefectural‐and‐above cities for the period 2002–2013. In particular, the relationship between city size and TFEE is investigated. The findings also show an inverted U‐shaped relationship between TFEE and city size, which implies an optimal city size of 16.68 million residents in China. According to this estimate, most Chinese cities may be undersized due to the migration restrictions of the hukou registration system and, hence, suffer from great environmental efficiency losses. The estimated low average TFEE value of Chinese cities also suggests the large potential for efficiency improvement. Thus, government policies should focus on relaxing migration restrictions and encouraging the development of large cities.     

Nonwhite migration 1960–1970: The role of employment opportunities

This article investigates the economic determinants of variations in nonwhite population growth rates attributable to migration in northern metropolitan areas during the 1960s. A simultaneous equations model is developed in which a nonwhite employment growth indicator is specified as a function of variables theoretically independent of concurrent nonwhite migration. Unlike prior studies of nonwhite migration, the migration equation does not employ a migrant stock indicator. The chain migration effect is linked directly to nonwhite employment growth. Variations in nonwhite net migration rates are found to be directly and significantly associated with nonwhite employment levels and nonwhite employment growth and negatively associated with income levels. Nonwhite employment growth is found positively and significantly associated with the growth of employment opportunities in low-ranked occupations, the growth of white employment in high-ranked occupations and prior nonwhite migration.     

The impact of New Deal expenditures on mobility during the Great Depression

Using county-level data on federal New Deal expenditures on public works and relief and Agricultural Adjustment Administration payments to farmers, this paper empirically examines the New Deal’s impact on inter-county migration from 1930 to 1940. We construct a net-migration measure for each county as the difference between the Census’s reported population change from 1930 to 1940 and the natural increase in population (births minus infant deaths minus non-infant deaths) over the same period. Our empirical approach accounts for both the simultaneity between New Deal allocations and migration and the geographic spillovers that likely resulted when economic activity in one county may have affected the migration decisions of people in neighboring counties. We find that greater spending on relief and public works was associated with significant migration into counties where such money was allocated. The introduction of our modern farm programs under the aegis of the Agricultural Adjustment Administration appears to have contributed to a net out-migration that sped the transition of people out of farming.     

Modern Trends and Problems of Migration in a Russian Border Region: The Far East

The article has analyzed trends and problems in migration processes in the Far East of Russia in the 2010s. There are restrictions on population growth in the Far East due to migration. It has been determined that the implementation of modern policy decisions with regard to the Far East region does not create real prerequisites for increasing the incomes of the population. It has been proved that, in order to attract population to the Far East, it is necessary to institute economic development in the region that can increase incomes and make them comparable to other more successful federal districts.     

Rural-to-urban migration in China

"One consequence of economic reform in China has been the greatly accelerated migration of labour from rural areas to cities. Estimates suggest an annual migrant labour flow of around 50-60 million people, of whom 10-15 million have settled permanently in cities. This article surveys the information that has become available from a number of population and labour surveys. It covers the volume, spatial and temporal dimension of rural-to-urban migration, the characteristics of migrant labourers, the determinants of migration and the impact of migration on China's rural and urban economy."     

Did children's education matter? Family migration as a mechanism of human capital investment: evidence from nineteenth‐century Bohemia

This article analyses the rural–urban migration of families in the Bohemian region of Pilsen in 1900. Using a new 1,300‐family dataset from the 1900 population census, the role of children's education in rural–urban migration is examined. The findings indicate that families migrated to the city such that the educational attainment of their children would be maximized, and that there is a positive correlation between family migration and children being apprentices in urban areas. The results suggest that rural–urban migration was powered not only by the exploitation of rural–urban wage gaps but also by aspirations to engage in human capital investment.     

Immigration quotas,World War I,and emigrant flows from the United States in the early 20th century

Little is known about international return migration because governments rarely track out-migrants. However, one exception occurred early in the 20th century when the United States kept records of emigrants. Using within-country changes in quota allocations in 1921, 1924, and 1929 in combination with 1908–1932 data on specific countries of intended destination of the emigrants, we estimate the effect of quotas on (1) out-migration rates, (2) emigration across skill groups, and (3) the duration of temporary migrants' stays in the U.S. Higher quota restrictions reduced emigration rates, mostly for unskilled laborers and farmers. Higher quota restrictions also increased duration of stay, as the share of migrants staying less than 5 years fell and the share staying 5 to 10 years rose. Return migration behavior was also associated with changes in previous immigrant cohort's networks and savings. Return migration rates were also low during World War I, and more significant population losses from the War in home countries discouraged return migration. Finally, out-migration of German migrants increased substantially during the 1920s.