人口老龄化对城乡收入不平等的影响效应研究——基于中国二元经济结构演变的视角

理论分析表明,二元经济结构下人口老龄化能够通过要素禀赋结构调整和社会福利改善对城乡居民收入产生不同的收入效应和替代效应,进而影响城乡收入不平等。利用中国2000-2014年省际面板数据进行实证检验发现：中国人口老龄化显著的扩大了城乡收入不平等,但要素禀赋结构和社会福利水平对老龄化条件下的城乡收入不平等影响效应不同;随着对老年人口供养负担的加重,社会福利支出对老龄化条件下的城乡收入不平等主要表现为替代效应,城市偏向的社会福利支出使得农村因照料老人引起的劳动力供给减少扩大了城乡收入不平等;而要素禀赋结构的转变则使得老龄化主要表现为收入效应,劳动力相对资本的稀缺性导致转移劳动力工资上涨,从而缩小了城乡收入不平等;随着老龄化深化,通过社会福利改善和要素禀赋结构调整能够有效抵消老龄化对城乡收入不平等的负面影响;研究也证实了二元经济结构的优化和农业规模化经营对城乡收入不平等的缩小作用,而失业率上升和城乡投资差距却会加剧城乡收入不平等。     

A new ordered family of Lorenz curves with an application to measuring income inequality and poverty in rural China

The most common data source on income distribution in China is grouped data. When income data is in grouped form, some acceptable Lorenz model is needed to approximate the underlying Lorenz curve. This paper presents a new family of Lorenz curves and applies the main model in our proposed family of Lorenz curves to income data for rural China over the period 1980 to 2006. We find that the income share of the rural population at the low end of the income scale has been shrinking, income inequality in rural China has increased over time and that income inequality has impeded attempts to reduce poverty. However, the welfare of the rural population is still improving in terms of the generalized Lorenz dominance criterion.     

The trend of the Gini coefficient of China (1978–2010)

ABSTRACT

This study proposes a new approach to analyse the effects of an overlap term on the calculation of the overall Gini coefficient and estimates China’s Gini ratios since the adoption of the economic reform and open-door policies. A decomposition of the Chinese Gini coefficient for 1978–2010 reveals that the key factor contributing to income inequalities is the income disparity between rural and urban inhabitants. We further investigate the features of this income inequality between rural and urban areas and employ statistical approaches to evaluate the effects of urbanisation and rural-to-urban average income on nationwide income inequality. The results show that accelerating the pace of urbanisation is mainly responsible for decreasing China’s income disparity. Drawing on these results, we conclude with suggestions for related policies.     

Rural-urban Migration and Dynamics of Income Distribution in China： A Non-parametric Approach

Extending the income dynamics approach in Quah (2003), the present paper studies the enlarging income inequality in China over the past three decades from the viewpoint of rural–urban migration and economic transition. We establish non‐parametric estimations of rural and urban income distribution functions in China, and aggregate a population‐weighted, nationwide income distribution function taking into account rural–urban differences in technological progress and price indexes. We calculate 12 inequality indexes through non‐parametric estimation to overcome the biases in existing parametric estimation and, therefore, provide more accurate measurement of income inequality. Policy implications have been drawn based on our research.     

The long-term evolution of national income inequality and rural poverty in China

Using the five waves of the China Household Income Project surveys conducted during 1988–2013, we investigate long-term changes in national income inequality and rural poverty in China. National income inequality rose markedly to 2007 and thereafter fell slightly. Income growth was widely shared, but inequality increased because the high-income percentiles had faster income growth than lower percentiles and because the gap between urban and rural household incomes widened. The fall in income inequality after 2007 reflects faster income growth among low-income percentiles and the impacts of newly introduced redistributive policies. The paper also finds a considerable, ongoing poverty reduction in rural China. A poverty decomposition analysis indicates that this rural poverty reduction was mostly due to income growth rather than redistribution.     

中国农村收入不平等—基于微观调查数据的回归分解

论文利用2003-2008年CGSS的微观个体调查数据,运用回归分解方法对中国农村收入不平等进行分解。首先对收入不平等进行测算,研究发现农村收入极端不平等,并且呈上升趋势。回归分解结果表明,年龄、教育、性别、东部地区虚拟变量、政治地位、婚姻、健康和幸福感是对农村收入不平等的决定要素。其中教育、年龄、性别、东部地区虚拟变量和健康对农村收入不平等的贡献显著。其余变量对农村收入不平等的贡献相对较小,但其对农村收入不平等的影响也不能被忽视。研究结论对政府制定科学合理的收入分配政策和有效调控收入差距具有借鉴作用。     

Land, Factor Markets, and Inequality in Rural China: Historical Evidence

Drawing on a unique household-level data set from northeast China in the 1930s, this paper explores the connections between the distribution of land, factor markets, and income distribution. We test whether patterns of income inequality were consistent with the predictions of a market-clearing, neoclassical model linking land and labor endowments, through factor markets to household income. While the model is consistent with some features in the data, we reject the hypothesis that factor markets worked perfectly and find support for the historian's intuition regarding the disproportionate impact of land inequality in the countryside. Nevertheless, where markets were more active, especially land rental markets, excess returns to land were diminished and inequality was lowest. This suggests that factor market development played a positive role in reducing inequality in rural China.     

Education expansion,assortative marriage,and income inequality in China

In this paper, we study the pattern of assortative marriage in China since 1990 and its impact on income inequality. The results indicate that men in China are increasingly likely to marry women of similar education levels. We calculate the counterfactual income inequality that would prevail if marriages were randomly matched in terms of education. In 2005, China's overall Gini coefficient of household income per capita would decline from 0.512 to 0.476 if marriages were randomly matched. In urban areas, assortative marriage in education increased the Gini coefficients from 0.321 to 0.338 in 2009. The decomposition exercise shows that the rising returns to education contribute most to the increase in income inequality in urban areas between 1990 and 2009, while the change in marriage assortativeness plays a minor role.     

Income growth, inequality and poverty reduction: A case study of eight provinces in China

This paper examines the growth performance and income inequality in eight Chinese provinces during the period of 1989–2004 using the China Health and Nutrition Survey data. It shows that income grew for all segments of the population, and as a result, poverty incidence has fallen. However, income growth has been uneven, most rapidly in coastal areas, and among the educated. A decomposition analysis based on household income determination suggests that income growth can largely be attributed to the increase in returns to education and to the shift of employment into secondary and tertiary sectors.     

Expenditure Inequality in Indonesia, 2008–2010: A Spatial Decomposition Analysis and the Role of Education

Based on the 2008–2010 Susenas panel data, this study examines expenditure inequality from spatial perspectives in Indonesia, using three decomposition methods: (i) a conventional Theil index decomposition; (ii) an alternative Theil index decomposition proposed by Elbers et al. (2008); and (iii) the Blinder?Oaxaca decomposition. Our results show that overall inequality in per capita expenditure increases between 2008 and 2010, which coincides with a rising trend in the official Gini coefficient. The contribution of inequality within urban and rural areas to total inequality is larger than that of inequality between urban and rural areas. Looking within urban and rural areas, urban inequality is significantly higher than rural inequality. Java‐Bali in particular records very high urban inequality. Overall, urban inequality increases, urban–rural inequality remains stable, rural inequality decreases, and inequality at the national level increases. Although urban–rural inequality has a relatively low share in overall inequality, the share is not small enough to ignore its impact. Furthermore, when using the alternative decomposition method, the contribution of urban–rural inequality increases substantially. The present study also found that educational differences appear to have played an important role in expenditure inequality within urban areas and between urban and rural areas.     

Inequality of opportunity in household income,China 2002–2018

This study contributes to the literature on inequality of opportunity (IOp) in China by covering a longer and more recent span of time, employing better measures of given characteristics, and analyzing IOp for household income per capita with comparisons to individual income. Furthermore, it analyzes how IOp differs between the rural- and urban-born, and how IOp changes across birth cohorts and with age. We use 2002, 2013 and 2018 data from the Chinese Household Income Study and focus on income inequality among working-age persons. We find that IOp in China declined, especially between 2013 and 2018. In 2002 the large contributors to IOp were region, hukou type at birth, and parents' characteristics. In 2018 the contributions of region, hukou type at birth and parents' occupation had decreased, but that of parents' education had increased. We find that IOp is larger among those born in rural than urban China. Furthermore, IOP's contribution to total inequality within each birth cohort is highest earlier in individuals' work lives and declines with age. IOp is higher for older than younger birth cohorts, reflecting that younger cohorts have benefited from increased opportunities associated with China's reforms and opening up.     

Inequality and the Urban-rural Divide in China： Effects of Regressive Taxation

Using three comparable national representative household surveys for China in 1988, 1995 and 2002, the present paper reveals the regressivity and urban bias of China＇s direct tax and welfare system in this period It shows that a regressive taxation system and skewed allocation of subsidies increases the urban-rural income gap and enhances overall inequality. Modeling these relationships indicates that the relatively poorer rural population has a net tax liability, whereas those in the richer urban areas receive net subsidies. This pattern is common in China, although the extent of the bias varies. This skewed system of tax and welfare payments is a major cause of the persisting urban-rural income gap and contributes to the overall income inequality in China. The abolishment of the agriculture tax in 2006 has had a positive impact on rural people ＇s livelihoods.     

Estimating flexible consumption functions for urban and rural households in China

There are few comprehensive studies of household consumption in China that covers all commodities due to data restrictions. This prevents the calculation of inequality indices based on consumption. This lack of coverage also makes analysis of policies that affect consumption difficult; economy-wide models used for analysis often have to employ simple consumption forms with unit income elasticities. We estimate a translog demand system distinguished by demographic characteristics, giving price and income elasticities that should be useful for policy analysis. We estimate separate functions for urban and rural households using household expenditure data and detailed commodity prices (1995–2006). This allows future analysis of social welfare and inequality based on consumption to supplement existing studies based on income. To illustrate an application of the model, we project consumption composition based on projected prices, incomes and demographic changes – aging, education improvement and urbanization.     

How Aging and Intergeneration Disparity Influence Consumption Inequality in China

Concurrent with market economic reforms, China is facing an increasing income gap and an aging population. The question addressed in the present paper is how much aging contributes to the rising disparity in consumption. Based on the model established by Ohtake and Saito （1998）, our study shows that cohort effects contribute close to 60percent of the rising consumption inequality, while approximately lO percent is the result of aging. The growth of aggregate consumption inequality caused by the cohort effect has various implications. Strengthening the redistribution system, especially the tax system, may enable the economy to avoid further increases in income inequality.     

A decomposition analysis of income inequality of Chinese rural households

This paper reports an application of household survey data collected from grain producing areas in five provinces of China to issues of the determinants of rural inequality. Previous studies suggest that non-agricultural activities have been the major cause of rural income inequality, which has important implications for policy formulation. However, our results show that inequality within the grain producing areas was also very high, with differences in crop income as the major source of inequality. The policy implications are also different from those of previous studies. While some suggest that an increase in agricultural income can reduce inequality, our results indicate that this is not universally true. In some cases, whether the increase in crop income has come from state procurement also matters. These results call for a more cautious and area-specific approach to policy formulation as far as inequality is concerned.     

中国农村经济制度变迁与农民收入增长的实证研究——基于1978～2009年省际动态面板数据分析

本文通过对1978~2009年中国农村制度变迁与农村居民收入增长之间进行了理论和实证分析,将农村居民收入增长划分为五个不同的阶段,农村制度变迁对农民的收入增长具有阶段性的影响作用,农村制度变迁是农民收入增长的重要驱动力。并借助动态面板数据模型,对1978~2009年中国农村农作制度、农村价格制度、财税制度,以及农村人口变迁制度等制度因素对农村居民收入增长的影响进行实证分析和检验,由此建议应该把农村制度创新作为提高农民收入增长的突破口。     

The redistributive role of government social security transfers on inequality in China

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the redistributive role of government social security transfers on inequality in China. We attempt to answer two questions. First, does inequality of after-transfer income narrow, compared to that of before-transfer income? Second, given the scale and distribution of existing government social security transfers, will a small percentage increase in the transfers narrow or widen the inequality of total income? By employing the methodologies of the Musgrave-Thin (MT) index and decomposition of the Gini coefficient of total income by its sources, we find a positive answer to the first question and a negative answer to the second question. Government social security transfers have a positive role on inequality in the sense that the Gini coefficient of after-transfer income is smaller than that of before-transfer income. However, government social security transfers have a negative role on inequality, as current inequality will go up if there is a universal increase in government social security transfers for all recipients. Of all the components of government social security transfers, formal sector pensions are most unequalizing, whereas dibao and rural pension benefits have equalizing effects on the income distribution in China.     

The dynamic effect of rural-to-urban migration on inequality in source villages: System GMM estimates from rural China

Using a newly constructed panel dataset that covers the 14-year period from 1997 to 2011 for more than 100 villages in China, this study analyzes the dynamic effect of rural-to-urban migration on inequality in source villages. Given that income inequality is time persisting, we use a system GMM framework. We found that the dynamic relationship between migration and income inequality is inversely U-shaped. Specifically, contemporary migration increases income inequality, whereas lagged migration has a strong income inequality-reducing effect on the sending villages. A 50 percent increase in the lagged migration rate translates into a one-ninth to one-tenth standard deviation reduction in income inequality.     

The contribution of income components to income inequality in the rural former homelands of South Africa: a decomposable Gini analysis

Households in developing countries adopt livelihood strategiesthat often rely on income from a diversity of sources. Froma policy perspective it becomes important to understand therelative importance of income sources in driving inter-householdinequality and poverty. Recent theoretical advances allow forthe decomposition of the Gini coefficient by income componentsand for an assessment of the impact of changes in income componentson the Gini coefficient. This paper applies such a techniqueto South African data for the rural former 'homeland' areas.In doing so, the paper extends existing knowledge of South Africanincome inequality. Particular attention is paid to integratingthe decomposition work into debates about rural developmentpolicy in South Africa.     

Intersectoral Transfer,Growth, and Inequality in Rural Ecuador

In this paper we study intersectoral transfer and its impact on the distribution of income in Ecuador. We find that income shares between farm and nonfarm activities are roughly equal, on average, although the rich in rural areas typically receive a greater share of income from nonfarm sources. Thus decomposing inequality by income source reveals that a rise in nonfarm incomes increases inequality. Drawing on a new method to estimate local-level distributional outcomes, growth of the high-productivity nonfarm sector is observed to have a strong and positive association with average consumption and inequality. Growth of the low-productivity nonfarm sector is associated with little change in either average income or income inequality. Irrespective of subsector, growth of the nonfarm sector is associated with a substantial fall in poverty.