基于熵值法的高质量发展综合评价研究

探索高质量发展评价指标体系是当前社会各界面临的极富挑战性和开创性工作。从生产、分配、交换和消费四个环节选取23个指标构建高质量发展指标体系,利用熵值法对2000—2015年我国经济高质量发展进行评价。在此基础上从提升全要素生产率、调节国民收入分配格局、助力文化消费以及防范市场风险等层面提出政策建议。     

What explains the recent fluctuations in Japan’s output? A structural factor analysis of Japan’s industrial production

By applying the structural factor analysis developed by Foerster et al. (2011), we decompose the fluctuations of Japan’s industrial production (IP) into sectoral shocks and aggregate shocks, taking input–output relationships between sectors into account. Our results show that, except for the global financial crisis period, sectoral shocks explain, on an average, nearly half of the quarterly variations in Japan’s IP. Although the relative importance of sectoral shocks declined during the global financial crisis period, it increased again in the recent post-crisis period and, at this time, it contributes to the increased volatility of Japan’s IP. Specifically, our analysis suggests that the intersectoral spillovers brought about by disruptions of supply chain networks in the wake of the Great East Japan Earthquake, the declines in domestic production (or production capacity) in some sectors, as a result of a deterioration in global competitiveness, and a shift to overseas production have contributed to the recent increase in fluctuations of Japan’s IP.     

Russia’s fuel and energy complex: Development prospects for the period to 2030

The article presents a long-term forecast for the Russian fuel and energy complex (FEC) for the period to 2030. Projections were made for two scenarios of Russia’s socioeconomic development, which were developed at the IEF in 2005–2006. FEC forecasts were built for three macroregions of Russia: the European part, the Urals and West Siberia, and East Siberia and the Far East. Key outcomes of the scenario forecasts correspond to the base case, which provides background concepts of the long-term development of the FEC. The regional aspect is analyzed in depth, which made it possible to build prognostic energy balances for three macroregions that take account of the economics of production, transportation, distribution, and utilization of energy resources.     

Machine tools and mass production in the armaments boom: Germany and the United States, 1929–44

This article anatomizes the ‘productivity race’ between Nazi Germany and the US over the period from the Great Depression to the Second World War in the metalworking industry. We present novel data that allow us to account for both the quantity of installed machine tools and their technological type. Hitherto, comparison of productive technologies has been limited to case studies and well‐worn narratives about US mass production and European‐style flexible specialization. Our data show that the two countries in fact employed similar types of machines combined in different ratios. Furthermore, neither country was locked in a rigid technological paradigm. By 1945 Germany had converged on the US both in terms of capital‐intensity and the specific technologies employed. Capital investment made a greater contribution to output growth in Germany, whereas US growth was capital‐saving. Total factor productivity growth made a substantial contribution to the armaments boom in both countries. But it was US industry, spared the war's most disruptive effects, that was in a position to take fullest advantage of the opportunities for wartime productivity growth. This adds a new element to familiar explanations for Germany's rapid catch‐up after 1945.     

重庆市创新型人才对经济发展贡献率研究

人才是创新驱动的关键因素,创新型人才作为重要的生产因素,其规模和质量决定了城市发展的核心竞争力,对城市经济发展有着重要的影响。通过柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,以重庆地区为研究对象计算2008—2018年创新型人才对经济发展的贡献率,并利用SPSS软件进行线性回归。结果表明,对于重庆地区来说,创新型人才对经济增长的贡献率不高,影响经济增长的主要因素是物力资本投入。重庆要在西部率先建成有核心竞争力的创新型城市,必须加快建设一支适应重庆经济社会发展需要的创新型人才队伍。     

“一带一路”倡议下新疆优势产业选择研究

连接东亚与欧亚纽带的新疆,在"一带一路"倡议下成为中国向西开放的门户。选择和发展优势产业对促进新疆产业升级、提高对外经济发展水平,以及维护新疆社会稳定和长治久安的总目标具有重大意义。通过因子分析法对新疆工业中29个行业进行分析,筛选出2006—2016年间的优势产业,研究发现新疆优势产业由粗放型向精密型的制造业带动;由高污染、高耗能向中等污染、中等耗能方向发展,在绿色发展理念的指引下新疆优势产业取得了重大的进步。     

The lure of aggregates and the pitfalls of the patriarchal perspective: a critique of the high wage economy interpretation of the British industrial revolution

The new meta‐narrative of the industrial revolution contends that Britain was a high wage economy and that this itself caused industrialization. Contemporary inventions, although derived from scientific discoveries shared with mainland Europe, could only be profitable in the context of Britain's factor prices. Therefore, important inventions were only developed in Britain where they enabled access to a growth path that transcended trajectories associated with more labour‐intensive production methods. The criticism presented here concerns perspective and methodology. The account of the high wage economy is misleading because it focuses on men and male wages, underestimates the relative caloric needs of women and children, and bases its view of living standards on an ahistorical and false household economy. A more accurate picture of the structure and functioning of working‐class households provides an alternative explanation of inventive and innovative activity in terms of the availability of cheap and amenable female and child labour and thereby offers a broader interpretation of the industrial revolution.     

USING EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION CLIMATE DATA TO IMPROVE FOOD POLICY PLANNING IN INDONESIA

Despite the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on climate in the Indo-Pacific region, models linking ENSO-based climate variability to Indonesian cereal production are not well developed. This study measures connections among sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), rainfall, and Indonesian rice and corn production from 1971 to 1998. Year-to-year August SSTA fluctuations explain about half the interannual variance in paddy production during the main (wet) season. These effects are cumulative for rice: during strong El Niño years, wet season production shortfalls are not made up subsequently. For corn, the cumulative area sown is actually higher in El Niño years than La Niña years. Indonesia's paddy production varies on average by 1.4 million tons for every 1°C change in August SSTAs. The paper illustrates how an SSTA model might assist policy makers with budgetary processes, and private sector cereal traders with framing production expectations.     

Assessing the prospects for the development of the poultry market in Russia in the context of the country’s accession to the World Trade Organization

An attempt to assess the effects of Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) for the domestic poultry market is made. The measures of public control over the national poultry market are outlined, a simple model for assessing the effect of import duties on the domestic market is developed, and the midterm prospects of Russia’s poultry market in the context of the country’s accession to the WTO are predicted.     

Scissors or Horizon: Neoclassical Debates about Returns to Scale,Costs, and Long-Run Supply, 1926-1942

Modern treatment of long-run (U-shaped) cost curves developed from reactions to Sraffa's criticisms of Marshall. He argued that internal (dis)economies were incompatible with partial-equilibrium analysis under perfect competition. Pigou concurred and drew L-shaped cost curves; Viner realized that this made firm size indeterminate and industry output volatile. Using Austin and Joan Robinson's analyses, Stigler justified rising costs/supply, determinacy, and stability by irrational entrepreneurs enduring coordination failure and by factor price changes. We conclude that consistency requires constant costs but firm employment, output, and factor incomes remain theoretically indeterminate. It becomes likely that large firms will undermine perfect competition.     

Trade in factor income and the US-China trade balance

US multindoational enterprises sell considerable amounts of products to China's domestic consumers that are “made” in either China or other countries. However, these sales are not counted as US exports to China. To account for this, we propose a beyond-borders approach to measuring trade flows that explicitly considers firm ownership, termed “trade in factor income (TiFI),” that defines the US-owned factor income induced by China's final demand as US exports to China. Applying this approach to OECD data, we find that on average from 2005 to 2016 in TiFI terms, US exports to China were 20.34% and 8.21% greater, China's exports to the US were 1.64% and 16.04% less, and the US trade deficits with China were 17.4% and 32.0% less than the trade figures reported in value added and gross terms, respectively. The concept of TiFI transforms trade measures from a territory-based “made in” label to a factor income-based “created by” label.     

Development and inappropriate or appropriate technology∗

It will not be possible to meet the basic needs of the poor in developing countries within the existing technostructure. The technology produced in the high—‐income countries is generally inappropriate for developing countries, being developed to suit conditions in the former. An appropriate technology more productive than a traditional one, but less disruptive than an inappropriate one, is therefore required. Such a technology is better suited to the factor endowments, levels of income, and the social and cultural conditions of developing countries. If real development is to occur in South Africa, priority must be given to the search for and use of smaller scale, more labour intensive methods of production that must be made accessible to all groups.     

Is China up to the Test？ A Review of Theories and Priorities for Education Investment for a Modern China

This paper reviews the key theories relating to the role of education in economic development and social change and how education, as a critical component of total factor productivity, contributes to sustained economic growth. It examines how China ＂s education policy reflects the country＇s unique dual economy. Focusing on the post-reform period, the paper contends that while progress has been made, there are risks to China＇s future growth prospects from failing to reap the benefits of sound education policy. It argues that if the Chinese education system is to continue to be a driver of rather than a drain on economic growth, and if China is to successfully manage its transition towards more inclusive, sustainable and equitable growth, reforms will be needed to improve the quality of education at all levels and to create an environment in which China＇s extensive human capital is duly recognized and respected. Crucially, the education system should be transformed to ensure it promotes a comprehensive range of human capabilities, including those that go beyond the part humans play in augmenting production possibilities.     

Methodological issues in testing the marginal productivity theory

Summary Previous tests of the marginal productivity theory have been criticized on several grounds reviewed by the authors. One important deficiency has been the small number of factor inputs entered in the production functions. In 1978 Gottschalk suggested a method to estimate production functions with many inputs by assuming that the production process can be split into subprocesses. This reduces the probability of multicollinearity. The authors show that the method depends on an additional assumption. Tinbergen has developed a method for avoiding this assumption. Its application to American cross-section (state) data did not alter the estimated coefficients greatly.     

乡村度假旅游产品开发探讨

乡村度假旅游在我国还是一个新生事物，但发展势头却比较迅猛，逐渐成为乡村旅游发展的宠儿。目前国内关于乡村度假旅游产品的开发研究还比较缺乏。文章在对发展乡村度假旅游意义探讨的基础上，分析总结了目前国内外乡村度假旅游产品的几种主要类型及发展动向，探讨了这类产品的市场需求及特征。最后在分析乡村度假旅游产品要素的基础上，对乡村度假旅游产品开发模式进行了深入探讨。     

Two sides of the same coin: The economic and environmental effects of China's international trade from a global value chain perspective

China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) has led to rapid economic growth and international trade development. However, China is also challenged with a heavy environmental burden due to the massive carbon emissions transferred through trade. By splitting production activities into traditional trade and global value chain (GVC) activities, this paper uses an intercountry input-output (ICIO) framework to study the imbalances of the economic and environmental effects between China's imports and exports at different levels. We define the indices value added per embodied emission in imports and exports (VPM and VPX, respectively). Additionally, we find a large gap between China's VPM and VPX, primarily because developed economies gain much higher value added per embodied emission than China gained through exports in GVC activities. Then, we study how to narrow the gap between China's VPM and VPX. The application of multiplicative structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and the logarithmic mean Divisia index I (LMDI-I) approach reveals the total and bilateral-sectoral contributions of the driving factor effects to the changes in China's VPM and VPX. The results provide tailored implications for promoting the comprehensive economic and environmental benefits of China's imports and exports.     

The problem of reducing the dependence of the Russian economy on primary product exports and economic policy alternatives

This paper discusses the causes and consequences of the high dependence of Russia’s socioeconomic development on the world market prices of hydrocarbon resources and their production volumes. The author analyzed the mechanisms underlying this dependency using a model of centrally planned economy without technical progress. The author shows that growth in raw materials production and prices leads to the “Dutch disease,” which is, hence, an economic growth paradox typical of open economies and having a resource-technological and structural character. The author’s conclusion is that welfare growth opportunities are underutilized under Dutch disease conditions in case of government restrictions on primary product exports aimed at conserving the trading sector. The case is made for increasing labor productivity in the Russian economy in order to overcome its dependence on the oil and gas exports.     

江苏经济增长因素分析及政策建议

全要素生产率方法是研究经济增长质量的重要方法。文章对江苏20年来的经济增长因素进行了实证研究,将促进江苏经济发展的全要素生产率因素分解为：产业结构的调整、所有制的变迁以及金融深化,并根据柯布—道格拉斯生产函数建立计量分析模型。回归结果表明：传统要素投入的增长已经不再是江苏经济增长的主要驱动力,取而代之的是产业结构的不断调整以及非公有制经济的迅速崛起,而金融深化对现阶段的经济增长并未产生重要影响。文章最后提出了相关的政策建议。     

传统社会主义道路的传延与变革

党的第一代领导集体开辟了社会主义道路,对中国社会主义现代化建设做出了重大贡献。在改革开放的新时期,我们党又开辟了中国特色社会主义道路;由于它对党的第一代领导集体开辟的社会主义道路的继承和发展,产生出了传统社会主义道路。传统社会主义道路的创造,表明了党的各代领导集体是社会主义传统的继承者和维护者,显示了中国社会主义理论和实践的历史连续性。     

A Note on the Endogenous Timing of Tariff Policy in the Presence of a Time Lag between Production and Trade Decisions

Using the Hamilton–Slutsky extended endogenous timing game of observable delay framework, we analyze the endogenous timing of tariff policy in the presence of a time lag between production and trade decisions. In particular, focusing on the strategic relationships between an importing country’s government and an exporting monopoly firm, we show that a natural Stackelberg situation exists in which the importing country’s government as first mover determines the tariff rate and the exporting monopoly firm as second mover determines the production level. We also find that the natural Stackelberg equilibrium is Pareto superior to both the Nash and alternative Stackelberg equilibria. This implies that commitment to an ex ante optimal tariff policy before the production decision is made is optimal for the affected parties.