新型城镇化下城镇可持续发展的内涵解析与差异化特征探讨

通过分析城镇可持续发展面临的发展形势严峻、基础设施相对落后、公共服务不均以及资源环境压力大等问题,并借鉴温哥华、斯德哥尔摩皇家海港城以及新加坡等国外城市可持续发展经验,总结归纳了新时代下城镇可持续发展的基本内涵及与其相关的经济转型、以人为本、基础设施、公共服务、城乡融合、社会治理和生态环境等重点领域,从产业结构、基础设施、开发用地以及满意度等方面深入剖析了城镇可持续发展的差异化特征。     

An input-output approach to forecasting gross domestic output and employment intensities by sectors

The purpose of this paper is to integrate two commonly known input-output models of Leontief and Stone for employment analysis. Although assumptions of Leontief model are somewhat different from Stone's model, the empirical analysis can be conducted ignoring the difference between competitive and noncompetitive imports in the initial stage. The Leontief model is used to make predictions of gross domestic output on the basis of predicted imports and final demand by sectors. The predicted output is used to derive employment by sectors for a target year and this in turn is used in Stone's input-output framework for the analysis of total labour intensity by sectors. The approach on the estimates of labour intensity by sectors is illustrated using Japan's input-output data.     

Decision style and its impact on managers and management

Decision styles, defined by the primary and secondary considerations in choice making and the implementation tactics preferred by managers, are used to explain the ways in which managers with a given style take action. Examples are used to illustrate the unique approaches taken by managers with each style in their decisions concerning leadership, team building, strategic management, control, and related issues that managers grapple with to fashion a desired future. The basis for shifts in style and the potential for conflict or collaboration between individuals with particular styles is discussed.     

The optimal use of fines and imprisonment

This paper examines the use of fines and imprisonment to deter individuals from engaging in harmful activities. These sanctions are analyzed separately as well as together, first for identical risk-neutral individuals and then for two groups of risk-neutral individuals who differ by wealth. When fines are used alone and individuals are identical, the optimal fine and probability of apprehension are such that there is some ‘underdeterrence’. If individuals differ by wealth, then the optimal fine for the high wealth group exceeds the fine for the low wealth group. When imprisonment is used alone and individuals are identical, the optimal imprisonment term and probability may be such that there is either underdeterrence or overdeterrence. If individuals differ by wealth, the optimal imprisonment term for the high wealth group may be longer or shorter than the term for the low wealth group. When fines and imprisonment are used together, it is desirable to use the fine to its maximum feasible extent before possibly supplementing it with an imprisonment term. The effects of risk aversion of these results are also discussed.     

交叉口信号控制延误计算模型分析与构建

本文通过对哈尔滨市部分十字型信号交叉口与T型信号交叉口,采用点样本法进行的延误调查数据,对各交叉口应用美国的HCM2000法、英国的Webster法、澳大利亚的ARRB法和我国上海城市综合规划使用的综合算法分别进行了延误理论计算值与实测值的比较。经分析,各种算法均与实测值有较大出入。在此基础上建立了与哈尔滨市交通情况相适应的信号交叉口延误计算模型,从而为哈尔滨市信号交叉口控制研究和道路系统的分析评价中延误的分析与计算提供了理论依据。     

我国基于总收益形式与超额收益形式估计的证券贝塔比较分析

经过简化的基于总收益形式的指数模型被经常用来估计证券贝塔,但这个模型没有理论依据。由于我国无风险利率的方差与市场收益的方差变动比较起来非常小,短期无风险利率的实际变动对贝塔估计值影响很小,因此,从“预测”的角度看,用总收益形式的单指数模型估计贝塔值可以完全替代具有理论基础的超额收益形式的单指数模型估计的贝塔。     

补偿税理论的新发展——兼评美国规制碳交易的司法实践

温室气体减排指标余额作为可交易的客体构成碳交易市场化制度安排的基础.美国东北部七个州联合签署<区域性温室气体减排计划>,希望借助"总量管制和交易"行动实现减排目标.在自1869年肇始的判例中,美国最高法院逐步发展与完善了"补偿税理论",作为支持表面上有歧视性的州际商业管理措施的正当根据.补偿税理论的历史演变和新近发展趋向都表明,它是化解碳交易法律难题的有效工具.     

Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia

Hong Kong and Singapore are two of the most important and fastest growing markets for tourists to Australia. The purpose of this paper is to investigate movements in the long-run demand for tourist travel by these two origin countries for Australia. Some of the leading macroeconomic variables examined to explain tourism demand are incomes in Hong Kong and Singapore, tourism prices in Australia, and transportation costs and exchange rates between the two countries and Australia. Seasonally unadjusted quarterly data are used for Hong Kong for the period 1975(1)–1996(4), and for 1980(4)–1996(4) for Singapore. Several proxy variables are used for the incomes of tourists from Hong Kong and Singapore to explain quarterly tourist arrivals to Australia. The augmented Dickey-Fuller test for unit roots is examined in the univariate framework, and Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure is used to test for cointegration and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors. Error correction models are estimated to explain quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia.     

Structural analysis and forecasts of commodity imports using cross-section relationships

The purpose of this paper is to propose alternative specifications which can be used for predicting imports by commodities for a large number of countries. Both “variety” and “scale” hypothesis have been made use of in suggesting simple cross-section relationships which can be easily used for predicting imports by commodities for any country of the world. Indeed, since detailed country characteristics are not taken into consideration in per capita income and population, it is likely that consistent under or overpredictions may result for a country when the estimated relationship is used. The extent of under or overprediction is reduced by using the variable elasticity formulation of the import demand function. Our estimates of cross-section relationships show remarkable stability in structural coefficients for the period 1967–1973 on the two-digit S.I.T.C. data. A set of eight different relationships is estimated and using 1970 cross-section relationships forecasts for 1973 and 1980 are given. Forecasts of imports of 45 commodities for 37 countries were derived and compared with the corresponding actual 1973 figures. The root mean square error predictive criterion suggests that per capita income and population in a constant elasticity form performs reasonably well.     

浅议拆封许可合同的认定

作为早期采用契约形式保护软件利益的延续,拆封许可合同今天广泛存在并成为软件著作权人权利行使的主要途径之一。拆分许可合同本质上是软件著作权人与用户之间订立的格式化的著作权许可使用合同,其效力同时受到合同法和著作权法的双重规范。     

基于遗传投影寻踪模型的高校人力资源管理综合评价

针对高校人力资源管理评价指标的不相容性问题,提出了高校人力资源管理综合评价的遗传投影寻踪方法。该方法可以依据样本自身的数据特性寻求最佳投影方向,利用最佳投影方向可判断各计价指标对综合评价目标的贡献大小和方向。通过最佳投影方向,与评价指标的线形投影得到投影指标值,通过这一指标来对样本进行统一评价和分类。运用该模型对3所高校人力资源管理状况进行了综合评价,得出评价等级,为高校人力资源管理提供可量化并带有预测性的科学评价方法。     

甘肃省县域农业资源利用效率综合评价——基于遗传投影寻踪方法

基于农业资源利用效率评价指标的多目标性和不相容性,提出了农业资源利用效率综合评价的遗传投影寻踪方法。该方法可以依据样本自身的数据特性寻求最佳投影方向,从而判断各评价指标对综合评价目标的贡献大小和方向。通过最佳投影方向与评价指标的线性投影得到投影指标值,通过这一指标可以对样本进行统一评价。利用该方法对甘肃省81个县域单元的农业资源利用效率进行综合评价,并对综合评价结果进行分级。     

Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?

The so-called P * model is frequently used or referred to in discussions of monetary targeting. This gives the impression that the P * model might provide some rationale for monetary targeting or for the monetary reference value used by the Eurosystem. The P * model implies that inflation is determined by the level of and changes in the `real money gap' (the deviation of current real balances from their long-run equilibrium level), and hence that the real money gap is an important indicator for future inflation. Nevertheless, the P * model does not seem to provide any rationale for either a Bundesbank-style money-growth target or a Eurosystem-style money-growth indicator.     

Valuing environmental factors in cost-benefit analysis using data envelopment analysis

Environmental cost-benefit analysis (ECBA) is used for the social evaluation of investment projects and policies that involve significant environmental impacts. Economic valuation of environmental impacts forms one of the critical steps of ECBA. We develop a new method for this purpose, which does not require price estimation for environmental impacts using stated or revealed preference methods. Our approach is based on data envelopment analysis (DEA), which is modified to ECBA by using absolute shadow prices instead of relative prices. We also discuss how the method can be used for sensitive analysis in ECBA. We illustrate the method by means of a hypothetical numerical example.     

Routines and the environment: Bridging the gaps

The paper examines the hypothesis that the mechanisms used by firms to improve their environmental performance are organisational routines. The concept of routines has been developed by evolutionary economists to investigate firms' innovative behaviour, but it has not been used to study how firms address environmental issues. Based on an applicable definition of routines, a methodology is designed to identify environmental routines in a case study of 13 oil refineries located in four different countries. Results confirm the hypothesis for firms operating under strict environmental regulations (France, UK). A comparative analysis of the degrees of routineness of the environmental mechanisms used by case study firms reveals and explains important gaps between European and North African refineries. Solutions to reduce them are proposed.     

Grand strategies and strategic actions in the pharmaceutical industry 2001–2002

This paper explores the strategic actions realised by firms in the pharmaceutical industry during 2001 and 2002. The purpose was to develop an empirically derived categorisation of strategic actions and grand strategies from the behaviour of firms that could be used as the basis of a methodological framework for developing understanding of strategic change. Qualitative analysis was used to identify and categorise strategic actions implemented by pharmaceutical firms. Twenty-three grand strategies were identified and are described. Implications for further research in strategy development are discussed.     

Estimating Purchasing Power Parities from Household Expenditure Data Using Complete Demand Systems with Application to Living Standards Comparison: India and Vietnam

This study departs from the previous literature on purchasing power parity (PPP) by proposing a demand system based methodology for calculating the PPP that takes account of consumer preferences and allows for the substitution effect of price changes. The methodology is used to calculate the PPP between the Indian Rupee and the Vietnamese Dong. The study allows for regional variation in preferences and price changes both inside the country and between countries. It proposes and applies a methodology for constructing prices from unit values after adjusting them for quality and demographic effects. The adjusted unit values are used as prices in the demand estimations, and the demand parameter estimates are used to calculate both spatial prices within each country and the PPP between the two countries within a consistent framework. The study illustrates the usefulness of preference consistent methods to calculate the PPP by applying the PPPs to compare living standards between India and Vietnam. The significance of the results follows from the fact that the levels of living comparisons are quite sensitive to the PPP used in converting the Rupee expenditure into Vietnamese Dong. The present results on food PPPs question the relevance of the PPPs from the ICP project in cross‐country welfare comparisons especially in a period of high food inflation.     

Decomposition of the Gini Index by Sources of Income

The Gini concentration coefficient is considered to be the best synthetic inequality measure and is widely used in economic research. In this paper, we present its decomposition by factor components with an application to income distributions in Poland. Income inequality measures proposed by Gini, Zenga and Bonferroni are calculated for different socio-economic groups based on their exclusive or primary source of maintenance. For theoretical income distribution, the Dagum type-I model was used. The basis for the calculations was the individual data coming from the Household Budgets Survey conducted quarterly by the Polish Central Statistical Office. Using the decomposition of inequality by source, we were able to examine how changes in particular income components affected overall inequality.      

ASSESSING THE QUALITY ERROR IN OUTPUT MEASURES: THE CASE OF REFRIGERATORS*

This paper computes new indexes of output for refrigerators, using hedonic methods to adjust for quality change. The hedonic technique is applied in a new way (it is used to make quality adjustments to prices before they are used in the index), and the results are compared with those from methods used in previous hedonic investigations. There are three major findings. (1) Overall (1960–1972), our hedonic deflated output series rise more rapidly than conventional measures, because the price indexes used for deflation rise more slowly. (2) The output measures fluctuate more than do output measures produced by conventional methods, because adding hedonic quality adjustments to WPI indexes moves them up in some years and down in others, and the resulting adjustments to the output series were positively correlated with changes in output. (3) Applying methods used in previous studies produces larger adjustments to the published indexes, suggesting that some of the differences noted in previous studies between hedonic indexes and official published indexes are related to computational methods, not to quality adjustment.