我国商业银行在城镇化进程中面临的机遇和风险研究

城镇化是世界各国经济发展过程中的必然趋势。十八大以来,加快城镇化进程已成为我国的国家战略。我国正处于城镇化高速发展的时期,城镇化进程在为商业银行的发展带来巨大发展机遇的同时,也带来一系列的风险。本文拟阐述我国城镇化的现状及发展趋势、分析城镇化进程中商业银行面临的机遇和风险、同时提出商业银行应对城镇化战略的举措,探讨商业银行如何抓住城镇化中的发展机遇。     

我国商业银行在城镇化进程中面临的机遇和风险研究

城镇化是世界各国经济发展过程中的必然趋势。十八大以来,加快城镇化进程已成为我国的国家战略。我国正处于城镇化高速发展的时期,城镇化进程在为商业银行的发展带来巨大发展机遇的同时,也带来一系列的风险。本文拟阐述我国城镇化的现状及发展趋势、分析城镇化进程中商业银行面临的机遇和风险、同时提出商业银行应对城镇化战略的举措,探讨商业银行如何抓住城镇化中的发展机遇。     

谈利率市场化对商业银行的影响及应对策略

利率市场化给我国商业银行带来了新的机遇与挑战，我们在把握这些机遇的同时，也要积极地应对潜在的风险。识别利率市场化对商业银行的影响、规避其带来的风险既迫切又重要。这不仅有利于增强商业银行的竞争力，也有利于商业银行的长期发展。     

论我国商业银行内部评级系统建设

当前,我国经济的持续、健康发展,为我国商业银行的发展提供了难得的机遇,但同时也使我国商业银行面临国外先进银行的竞争.     

融资融券交易带给商业银行的机遇、风险及应对对策

融资融券交易也就是证券信用交易,是我国证券市场新引入的一项交易制度。它具有双重性,一方面给我国的商业银行带来了新的机遇,但同时也使商业银行在从事这项交易时面临了一些新的风险,本文就融资融券交易给商业银行带来的机遇和风险做了简单的分析,并对此提出了一些相应的对策。     

浅谈我国商业银行发展衍生金融业务的机遇和空间

近年来,我国商业银行的衍生金融业务得到一定程度的发展,同时也存在一些问题。随着我国各项金融体制改革进程的推进,我国商业银行的衍生金融业务面临重大的发展机遇,有着广阔的发展空间。     

利率市场化对商业银行的影响研究

利率市场化是一把双刃剑,在为商业银行带来挑战的同时也为商业银行带来了机遇。本文立足利率市场化改革,分析了利率市场化对我国商业银行的积极影响和消极影响,从而为商业银行应对利率市场化提供参考。     

利率市场化条件下我国商业银行风险管理体系的建立与完善

一、利率市场化对我国商业银行风险管理的影响 利率市场化是一把双刃剑,在商业银行定价自主权扩大的同时,商业银行的经营风险也在急剧增加.在我国商业银行的利率管理能力还不高,市场竞争加剧的情况下,银行的经营风险要大于利率市场化带来的发展机遇.     

关于我国商业银行操作风险问题的研究

伴随着金融全球化的不断发展,改革开放的逐步深入,在给我国商业银行带来了发展机遇的同时也带来了更多的挑战,银行面临风险的增加便是其中之一。本文针对我国商业银行操作风险,首先分析我国商业银行操作风险的现状,同时探悉了加强操作风险管理的必要性,最后结合我国的特殊情况和巴塞尔协议提出了一些操作风险管理的对策,以期达到提高我国商业银行进行操作风险管理的能力。     

我国大型国有控股商业银行资本充足率管理中的几个问题

随着《商业银行资本充足率管理办法》的颁布，我国商业银行的资本监管力度大大加强，同时，我国金融企业综合经营的试点将稳步推进，也给商业银行资本充足率管理带来了新的机遇和挑战，因此，当前我国大型国有控股商业银行切实改善资本充足率管理，是十分重要和迫切的。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…