汇率升值对就业影响的中日比较

关于就业问题,以往的研究主要从就业总量与就业结构两个角度进行探讨,本文对就业结构的研究进行了拓展,在实证研究中引入汇率,运用协整和误差修正模型对日中两国实际汇率与第三产业产值比重和就业比重之间的关系进行了国别比较。实证结果表明,从长期看日本第三产业就业比重上升与实际汇率升值正相关,而中国的相应变量间不存在类似长期关系。比较分析得出结论:只有在汇率适度浮动,资源在部门间流动壁垒减少这两个条件满足时,汇率升值才会产生资源配置作用,推动劳动向非贸易部门转移,逐步优化就业结构。     

The economics of crime in the urban ghetto

Summary and Conclusion A central conclusion of this paper which explores the economic aspects of crime in the urban ghetto is that it is premature to conclude that an unambiguous relationship between employment opportunities and crime exists. This is not to be considered a repudiation of prior findings of a statistical association between unemployment rates, labor force participation rates, other economic variables, and crime. It is merely a statement of caution when viewing these findings within an analytical perspective devoid of a characterization of the institutional structure of crime and employment in urban ghettos.     

照看子女、劳动参与和灵活就业:中国女性如何平衡家庭与工作

文章利用中国家庭收入调查2007和2008年数据研究了未成年子女对女性劳动参与和职业选择的影响。研究结果表明，家中有未成年子女显著降低了女性工作的可能性，提升了工作女性选择灵活就业的可能性；学龄前子女更有可能导致女性退出劳动力市场，而6-14岁子女更有可能导致女性选择灵活就业；不工作和选择灵活就业使女性更有可能成为学龄前子女的主要照顾者，但灵活就业并没有减少女性的工作时间；女性获得工作灵活性的代价是工资水平显著下降。上述结论在解决了女性劳动参与、职业选择和生育决策的内生性问题之后依然是稳健的。文章的结论对"全面二孩"政策背景保障女性就业有一定借鉴意义。     

经济转型期中国经济增长的就业效应分析

本文分别对经济转型期中国经济增长与名义就业和有效就业进行协整分析，通过对两个协整结果的比较分析引出中国隐性失业严重的问题，并在此基础上，结合中国发展的实际提出了解决中国隐性失业显性化的相关政策建议。     

Gross worker flows and unemployment dynamics in Japan

This paper studies the dynamics of worker flows in Japan between 1980 and 2009. We construct gross worker flows data using the monthly Labor Force Survey. Our data enables us to examine the size and cyclical patterns of the flows and transition rates between employment, unemployment, and not being-in-the labor force. We find that the cyclical pattern of worker flows is similar to that found in other countries; however, worker flows in Japan are generally smaller than those in the US and European countries. We also decompose changes in unemployment into contributions from unemployment inflow and outflow rates. We find that both inflow and outflow rates significantly affect variations in unemployment.     

Unemployment and labor force participation in urban China

This paper serves to document and analyze the employment and the labor market changes in urban China since the late 1980s. High and sustained GDP growth rates in China have paradoxically been accompanied by increasing unemployment rates and decreasing labor force participation rates. Using national representative micro data, estimations from logit models show that age, education, communist-party membership and marital status are significantly associated with participation in the labor force and employment opportunities, and the impacts of education and party membership have increased over time. An extension of the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition finds little of the observed male–female differentials attributable to differences in characteristics such as age or education but to coefficient effects, a possible reflection of discrimination.     

Fluctuations in Unemployment and Industry Labor Markets

Throughout the 1990s, and particularly in the mid- to late-1990s, the Japanese employment situation went from bad to worse. We investigate the causes of rising unemployment in Japan, using data on individual workers from the “Special Survey of the Labor Force” between 1988 and 1999. This research focuses on the effect of labor market segmentation by industry on labor flows. Our findings reveal that unemployment in the construction industry and, more recently, in the service industry has contributed greatly to the national unemployment rate. We also find that most successful job transfers occur within the same industry, even though workers may experience some periods of unemployment. Finally, our results show that labor market conditions in each industry affect the probability that a worker will fall into unemployment as well as the probability that an unemployed worker will find new employment. These findings suggest that the Japanese labor market is segmented by industry and this segmentation contributed to the worsening unemployment in Japan. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2001, 15(4), pp. 437–464. Department of Economics, Dokkyo University, 1-1 Gakuen-cho, Soka-shi, Saitama 340-0042, Japan; Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, 464-8601, Japan. © 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: J63, J64.     

A Classroom Unemployment Compensation Experiment

This classroom experiment demonstrates how unemployment compensation can affect unemployment rates and wages. Students take the roles of workers and employers who use double oral auction labor markets to negotiate employment contracts. The instructor takes the role of a government that offers progressively higher levels of unemployment compensation. The experiment generates data that students can analyze to test the general predictive power of economic theory. Students also use their data to test the specific hypothesis that higher unemployment compensation increases the unemployment rate and causes wage compression.     

Employment opportunities and labor force participation

Conclusions The research reported here provides a link between expected mix of job opportunities and labor force participation rates for various demographic groups in the working age population. The model produced statistically significant results, generally, for the expected employment opportunities indices, and appears to be a useful device for analyzing labor force participation changes in reaction to varying employment opportunities.The empirical results give further evidence of the existence of a dual labor market in which several worker groups, encompassing younger and older workers and non-family heads, are not as strongly attached to the labor force as prime age males. In particular, percentage increases in job seekers in secondary labor force groups induced by expanding employment opportunities may well exceed percentage increases in employment opportunities in an area. These groups' labor force participation elasticities with respect to employment opportunities are usually greater than one, thus adversely affecting attempts to reduce the official unemployment problems of these secondary groups.Given the greater difficulties these so-called marginal or secondary workers have in finding employment, manpower planners need to anticipate shifts in the labor force composition in assessing needs to be met through job creation and manpower programs. In particular, the results suggest that selective job creation and training programs may be necessary to solve unemployment problems.Finally, this research provides additional evidence demonstrating the inadequacy of unemployment counts to show the total number of persons desiring a job and, thus, the total size of the employment problem faced in a labor market. Moreover, the number of hidden unemployed who will became active job seekers as job openings develop is related to the mix of specific job openings as well as to the demographic mix of the population age 16 years and over.The authors wish to thank the Economic Development Administration and the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Utah for funding portions of this research. The authors also wish to thank Professor Dan Mitchell, Graduate School of Management, UCLA, for his comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

二元经济中劳动力转移理论及其对中国就业增长的启示

失业问题一直以来都是困扰我国经济和社会发展的一个重要社会问题。特别是近年来随着经济增长速度下降,如何促进就业成为一个重要问题。中国经济产业结构正在经历非农化的过程,这决定了就业具有二元经济条件下就业的典型特征,所以回顾二元经济条件下劳动力转移理论对于解决当前我国的失业问题具有重要借鉴意义。     

Fertility and maternal labor supply in Japan: Conflicting policy goals?

Using panel data on Japanese mothers, this paper estimates the impact of fertility on maternal labor supply using twins as an instrument for the total number of children. We find that having twins actually has a longer term positive impact on maternal labor force participation in Japan. To understand this result, we present evidence that the effects of age and cost of children can generate this finding, are particularly salient in Japan and differ in important ways between twins and non-twin families of the same size. Implications for fertility and labor supply policy in Japan are discussed.     

Fiscal stimulus and labor market dynamics in Japan

The paper studies the effects of fiscal expansion on the Japanese labor market. First, using a structural VAR model, we find that the unemployment rate falls and employment rises following an increase in government spending. We also find that fiscal expansion affects flows in and out of unemployment. While an increase in government spending increases the job-finding rate, it reduces the separation rate. We then incorporate search and matching frictions into a standard dynamic general equilibrium model, and study whether the model can explain what we observed in data. While the model fails to predict the exact size of the impact of government spending shocks on the Japanese labor market variables, it can consistently capture the empirical pattern of responses of labor market variables to shocks.     

印度劳动力就业政策及其启示

近年来，印度劳动力整体素质不断提高且呈日益年轻化趋向，但失业率高、失业人口低龄化等现象已成为令印度政府头疼的社会问题。为保证社会稳定、经济可持续发展，印度政府制定了灵活、有效的就业政策。     

A Note on the Labor Market Effects of Remittances in Latin American and Caribbean Countries: Do Thresholds Exist?

The labor market effects of remittances have long been examined in the empirical literature. To date, the results have been mixed: some authors observe a negative association between remittances and unemployment while others report that remittances increase unemployment. This study empirically examines the impact of remittances on unemployment using macroeconomic data for a sample of 18 Latin American and Caribbean countries. Specifically, the study tests whether there is a nonlinear relationship between the variables. Results suggest that when the remittance‐to‐GDP ratio is low, remittances have a positive and significant impact on unemployment. However, as they increase, remittances are negatively associated with unemployment. This suggests the possibility that estimations based on the assumption of a linear relationship between remittances and labor may mask the true relationship between the variables.     

Women's labor force participation and marriage: The case of Korea

In this paper, we examine the relationship between marital status and female labor force participation in Korea, and argue that marriage remains a major obstacle to young Korean women's employment. We find that an average married woman is much less likely (by 40–60%) to participate in the labor force than a single woman in urban Korea. Further investigation into the participation patterns among married women reveals that labor force participation rate (LFPR) varies with husband's occupation and her own age. Lower LFPR among the young married women is explained by demand-side factors, while relatively higher LFPR among the middle-aged married women is mostly explained by the supply-side factors.     

Discrepancy between Registered and Actual Unemployment Rates in China： An Investigation inProvincial Capital Cities

The unemployment rate is a key indicator of labor market and economic performance. Based on a unique survey, we estimate the unemployment rate at 13.44percent in 30 provincial capital cities in China in 2007, which is well above the officially announced registered unemployment rate. The discrepancy results from inaccuracy in the calculation of registered unemployment. The discrepancy is not stably evolving across regions or over the years, making it difficult to recover the true unemployment rate using a simple multiplier approach. We further investigate the sources of the discrepancy by examining the determinants of unemployment registration. It is evident that participation in certain public activities, which would facilitate the spread of knowledge related to job-searching and unemployment registration, encouraged unemployment registration. Social attention to government antiunemployment programs also encouraged unemployment registration. These findings confirm the behavioral hypothesis that incomplete knowledge and limited attention can cause deviation from optimal choice. The policy implications of the findings of the study are discussed.     

新疆城镇反贫困中的失业保障制度安排

随着“八七扶贫攻坚计划”的完成,新疆农村绝对贫困人口问题已基本解决,而城镇贫困人口问题又日趋严重,职工失业型贫困人群已构成新疆城镇贫困阶层的主体。本文分析了新疆失业保障制度与反贫困之间的关系,认为当前新疆失业保障制度主要存在覆盖面窄、区域收支不平衡等问题,从而未能对新疆城镇贫困人口提供充分的保障。因此,只有健全就业机制,完善现有失业保障制度,才能加快新疆城镇反贫困的步伐。     

THE MEASUREMENT OF EMPLOYMENT STATUS IN SOUTH AFRICA USING COHORT ANALYSIS, 1994‐20041

We analyse trends in employment, unemployment and labour force participation by simple graphical techniques, using all the October Household Surveys and the September Labour Force Surveys. We show that African male employment in 1995 seems high, when compared to all the other surveys. Furthermore much of the increase in African female labour force participation is concentrated in the period 1998 to 2000, which suggests that measurement and sampling changes may be partially responsible for the trend. We track cohorts of individuals over the eleven years for which we have data. We show that young people are leaving school earlier, while being better educated than their elders. They are not, however, being absorbed into employment at a faster rate. This has led to a spike in youth unemployment.     

Illicit Drug Use,Employment, and Labor Force Participation

Illicit drug use has declined among the U.S. adult population, but national surveys show the majority of illicit drug users are employed. Concern about workplace productivity, absenteeism, and safety has led many employers to establish employee assistance and drug testing programs. Given the sharp interest in workplace interventions, more information is needed about the relationships between drug use and labor market status. This study estimated the probability of employment and labor force participation for different types of drug users using nationally representative data from the 1997 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse. Results strongly indicated that chronic drug use was significantly related (negative) to employment for both genders and labor force participation for males. Furthermore, nonchronic drug use was not significantly related to employment or labor force participation. These findings suggest that workplace policies for illicit drug use should consider chronic or problem drug users apart from light or casual users.     

影响中国就业弹性的因素分析

文章由修改后的柯布道格拉斯生产函数推导出劳动力需求方程,找到影响就业弹性的因素:资本存量、实际工资、技术因素和市场化程度;并将这些因素与就业量进行了实证分析.结果表明:劳动需求量、资本存量、职工工资、技术因素和市场化程度之间具有协整关系;资本投入的增加对就业量的带动作用不显著;技术因素虽然短期对就业有挤出效应,但其增长效应大于挤出效应;非国有经济和第三产业具有较高吸收就业的能力,非国有经济和第三产业的发展是缓解我国当前就业形势的重要途径.