社会倾销对我国对外贸易的影响及策略

经济全球化在促进生产力增长的同时,产生了负面的影响。尤其是发达国家以反"社会倾销"为理由,提出将贸易与劳工标准挂钩,实施贸易制裁。这必将对中国的对外贸易发起挑战。我们应从中国的实情出发,找出我国劳工标准现状与国际标准的差距。在国际国内层面采取加强与国际组织的互动;加强职业安全管理及逆向采购等措施。     

Negotiating ‘solidarity’ and internationalism: the response of Polish trade unions to migration

In the context of massive outward migration after Poland's accession to the EU in 2004, this article explores the possibilities for cross‐border collaboration by Polish trade unions. The findings are based on interviews with the two main trade union/trade union federations, Solidarity and Ogolnopolskie Porozumnie Zwi?zków Zawodowych: All‐Poland Alliance of Trade Unions, at national, regional and sectoral levels. Examining the issues and challenges faced by Polish trade unions in terms of loss of membership and social capital, the article also evaluates the significance of Poland's status as a country of some inward migration. It is argued that cross‐border trade union collaboration has become an even more urgent project as the economic crisis intensifies competition in the labour market and increases the potential for xenophobia.     

Distinguishing China's processing trade in the world input-output table and quantifying its effects

ABSTRACT

Distinguishing processing trade is crucial to national input-output table-based research on China's international trade. This paper further investigates the importance of distinguishing China's processing trade in multicountry input-output table-based studies. We focus on the bias in China's bilateral trade in value added caused by China's undistinguished processing trade. We construct a product-by-product world input-output table capturing China's processing trade based on the World Input-Output Database. Empirical studies show that, if China's processing trade is undistinguished, the profile of China's bilateral trade in value added would be seriously distorted; China's bilateral net trade in value added with some economies, such as Japan, Korea and Taiwan, would be significantly underestimated, while it would be significantly overestimated for some other economies, such as the United States. Distinguishing processing trade in multicountry input-output tables is also crucial when China's bilateral trade in value added is considered.     

中国贸易产品多样性的测度及动态分析

本文调整了传统测算多样性指数的方法,对我国HS6位编码的进出口产品多样性进行了测度,并使用马尔可夫链模型对其发展趋势进行动态分析。研究表明,我国贸易产品波动尤其是出口产品的波动还将维持在一个较高的水平,劳动密集型产品作为我国贸易优势产品,对我国贸易进一步向竞争更为激烈的资本技术密集型产品领域扩展起到降低风险、稳定发展的作用。进口贸易也将通过调整进口产品结构,促进资本、技术等引进加快我国贸易结构的转型升级。本文的研究拟为评价我国贸易质量、制定贸易转型政策提供有效参考。     

THE DISTANCE PUZZLE AND LOW‐INCOME COUNTRIES: AN UPDATE

The ‘distance effect' measuring the elasticity of trade flows to distance has been found to be rising since the early 1970s in a host of studies based on the gravity model, leading observers to call it the ‘distance puzzle'. However, this puzzle is regularly challenged by new developments in the specification of the gravity equation or in its estimations. We propose an original survey on the existing methods used to quantify the distance puzzle – basically the computation of an average distance of trade, a meta‐analysis on existing gravity papers and the implementation of recent econometric developments, all on a well‐specified gravity equation both in cross‐section and panel data. We apply all these methods to a unique large database (124 countries from 1970 to 2006). It appears that if all these new developments can change the amplitude of the increase in the trade elasticity to distance, none solve the distance puzzle. We confirm the existence of this puzzle and identify that it only applies to low‐income countries which exhibit a significant rising distance effect on their trade of around 18% between 1970 and 2006 while the distance ‘puzzle' for trade within richer countries disappears.     

Women's attitudes towards trade unions in the UK: a consideration of the distinction between full‐ and part‐time workers

This article considers the attitudes and experiences of female full‐ and part‐time workers towards trade unions. Expanding upon previous research it suggests that while the attitudes of full‐ and part‐time workers towards trade unions are similar, experiences of trade unions are not: they depend upon the employment context and work history. A life course perspective is advanced, which examines women's employment contexts and transitions between full‐ and part‐time work in order to further explain female part‐timers’ lower likelihood of unionising.     

Does Turkey have a special trade relation with the EU?: A gravity model approach

We apply the gravity model to Turkey's trade flows over 1967–2001. First, we check whether this model fits Turkey's geographical pattern of trade in goods. Second, provided that the model works, we assess whether Turkey already has a “special” trade relation with the EU, namely whether merchandise exchanges between the two parties exceed what the gravity approach predicts. The main findings are: (i) the gravity model provides a good fit of Turkey's trade patterns, and (ii) despite the 1963 Association agreement and the customs union launched in 1996, there is no evidence of additional trade between Turkey and the EU.     

Analysis of the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China’s stock market based on complex networks

This paper analyzes the impact of the Sino-US trade friction incident in 2018 on China's stock market by using the complex network methods. Firstly, we divide the Sino-US trade friction incident in 2018 into four research periods. Based on the GARCH-BEKK model and the Planar Maximum Filter Graph (PMFG) algorithm, the volatility spillover network between China's stock market sectors and the stock price correlation network of China's stock market corresponding to the above four research periods are constructed. Next, from the perspective of sectors in stock market, we use various network centrality indicators to build a systematic importance comprehensive evaluation index of industry sectors in the stock market through the principal component analysis method, to explore the impact of the Sino-US trade friction incident on the risk spillover effects of sectors in China's stock market. From the perspective of the overall stock market, we analyze the impact of Sino-US trade friction incident on the overall stability of the stock market through calculating the network topology indicators and conducting simulation experiments. Finally, the main factors affecting the stability mechanism of China's stock market are studied through the probit model. The results show that: (1) The risk spillover effect of various sectors in China's stock market changes significantly in different periods of Sino-US trade friction, and there are obvious cyclical rotation effects among various sectors (2) When some weighted stocks in the stock market abnormally fluctuate or suffer targeted shocks, the China's stock market's ability to maintain stability is weak, and the Sino-US trade friction will reduce the stability of China's stock market, and the higher the intensity of trade friction incident is, the more obvious the impact of the incident is. (3) The important factors that affect the abnormal fluctuations in China's stock market include four types of indicators: the stock market network structure, the fluctuation of important international stock indexes, the fluctuation of commodity prices in the international market, and the domestic macroeconomic indicators. This study provides a reference for China's financial regulatory authorities to conduct macro-prudential management, control systemic risks, and maintain the stability of financial market.     

DATA REVISION AND MARKET RESPONSE: THE CASE OF UNITED STATES TRADE BALANCE ANNOUNCEMENTS†

ABSTRACT In this paper we study economic news, as reflected in the announcements of the United States trade balance by the Commerce department, to illustrate the importance of revised data versus preliminary data to economic agents. A new methodology has been developed here to study how agents in the exchange market respond to these monthly trade balance announcements and consequently, move the dollar's exchange rate. In contrast to previous studies where agent reactions to only preliminary trade figures were analyzed, this method is applied to examine market reactions to the preliminary and revised trade balance figures.     

改革开放以来中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进及地区分布差异

研究目标：研究中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进及地区分布差异。研究方法：基于中国1978~2014年的省级面板数据,采用超越对数形式的随机前沿模型进行分析。研究发现：在经济转型期,市场化改革与对外开放的发展是中国出口增长的首要推动力;在“入世”准备期,中国出口增长由制度因素、物质要素投入协同推动;在“入世”增长期,物质要素投入成为中国出口增长的首要来源;在全球引擎期,物质要素投入协同贸易潜力主导中国出口贸易的发展;地区间出口贸易差距主要源于贸易潜力、资本与制度因素的三重差异。研究创新：对改革开放以来至2008年金融危机以后中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进进行系统研究。研究价值：针对中国贸易可持续发展面临的主要挑战,提供政策建议。     

Prevention incentives in long‐term insurance contracts

Long‐term insurance contracts are widespread, particularly in public health and the labor market. Such contracts typically involve monthly or annual premia which are related to the insured's risk profile. A given profile may change, based on observed outcomes which depend on the insured's prevention efforts. The aim of this paper is to analyze the latter relationship. In a two‐period optimal insurance contract in which the insured's risk profile is partly governed by her effort on prevention, we find that both the insured's risk aversion and prudence play a crucial role. If absolute prudence is greater than twice absolute risk aversion, moral hazard justifies setting a higher premium in the first period but also greater premium discrimination in the second period. This result provides insights on the trade‐offs between long‐term insurance and the incentives arising from risk classification, as well as between inter‐ and intragenerational insurance.     

The importance of gender for participation in and attitudes to trade unionism

This article attempts to establish the main determinants of an employee's involvement in trade unionism, and to explain the male/female differential in union participation. Women, especially parttime workers, are less likely to participate in union meetings than men, which seems largely attributable to women's lower favourability to trade unions, although women are as likely as men to believe in the principles of trade unionism.     

中国与印度贸易摩擦的原因及对策分析

随着中印双边贸易发展迅速,中国已成为印度的第二大贸易伙伴,印度也已成为中国在南亚地区最大的贸易伙伴。但印度对华贸易保护呈现愈演愈烈之势。在WTO成员国中,印度是金融危机以来对我国发起贸易救济案件最多的国家,两国间的贸易摩擦问题已不容忽视。本文通过对总贸易额、进出口商品构成、反倾销的比例等数据的比较,从宏观、政策和产业三个角度,分析了中印贸易摩擦存在的原因,并从政府、行业协会和进出口商会、企业的角度,制定出应对中印贸易摩擦的对策建议。     

China‐commodity nexus at the heart of global upturn

• ? The China‐commodity nexus has been at the heart of the global upturn in trade and industry. It could directly and indirectly account for as much as 70% of the recovery since mid‐2016, based on our analysis. We think this nexus will continue to support world growth in the near term, but the global upturn is vulnerable to moderating Chinese growth and slippage in commodity prices.
• ? China has directly accounted for around a third of the upturn in world trade, similar to the contribution of G7 countries. But adding in indirect effects, China's influence is likely to have been much more significant. Stronger Chinese demand has contributed to an improvement in the trade performance of its Asian trading partners, commodity exporters and other advanced economies.
• ? Using a model simulation that introduces positive shocks to imports in “greater China” and to commodity prices (based on the scale we have seen since mid‐2016), our top‐end estimate for China's contribution to the upturn in world trade is around 70%.
• ? The simulation points to especially strong improvements in output and exports for economies such as South Korea, Japan, Malaysia and some commodity exporters. This broadly matches the pattern of performance seen over recent months, though commodity exporters' performance has been quite mixed.
• ? G7 investment growth is likely to have played only a modest role in the recent global upturn. But Japan is an exception, while upgrades to investment forecasts for South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong have also been large.
• ? A 1% rise in commodity prices could raise commodity exporters' investment by 0.3–0.6%, based on our analysis. As a result, there could be additional improvement in commodity exporters' investment this year, supporting world growth. However, with our forecasts suggesting that commodity prices are set to slip further over the coming quarters, this boost could prove short‐lived.

     

Bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh: A general equilibrium approach

India and Bangladesh have pursued policies of trade liberalization since the early 1990s. However, owing to the differential speeds of opening up, Bangladesh's bilateral trade deficit with India widened substantially over the years. This aggravated the economic and the political tensions between the economies. It has been held that promotion of free trade between the two economies may enhance the trade and hence economic cooperation between them. Against this backdrop the present paper proposes a theoretical framework that provides a general equilibrium determination of the commodity pattern of trade and hence locates the comparative advantages of the economies. The empirical implementation of the model considers trade in 25 sectors comparable in the input–output tables of the economies. The study isolates the gains from free trade accruing to either economy. The paper also explores the pattern of bilateral trade when each economy produces goods by utilizing their own as well as the other country's technology. The gains from this trading arrangement are also isolated.     

中国企业参与垂直分工会促进其技术创新吗？

研究目标：研究中国企业参与垂直分工会对其技术创新产生何种影响。研究方法：利用2000~2013年中国工业企业数据库与海关贸易统计库匹配数据测算中国企业的垂直专业化指数（VSS）,继而实证分析垂直分工对不同所有制、贸易类型及组织模式的企业技术创新的影响。研究发现：中国企业的VSS从2000年的0.48下降至2013年的0.27;整体来说,中国企业参与垂直分工对其技术创新产生了显著的抑制效应;区分所有制、贸易方式和组织模式后发现,垂直分工对外资企业、加工企业及外资加工企业的创新抑制效应最大。研究创新：在Upward等（2013）和张杰等（2013）关于VSS测算方法的基础上进行了改进。研究价值：支撑了中国目前实施的“做强一般贸易、扩大一般贸易规模”的政策。该政策虽然使得企业的垂直分工程度不断下降,但不会削弱其技术创新能力。     

CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE GATT/WTO TO GLOBAL ECONOMIC WELFARE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

This paper surveys estimates of the value of the GATT/WTO's contributions to global welfare through providing a forum for negotiating reductions in policy‐induced distortions to trade flows, including through the process of accession by new members. After reviewing measures of the price‐distorting effects of trade‐related policies, it assesses estimates from global simulation models of the welfare effects of trade liberalizations prior to the WTO's Doha round, including the net benefits and transfers associated with implementing the Uruguay Round agreement on trade‐related intellectual property rights, and then reviews estimates of the potential welfare effects of a Doha round agreement to cut tariffs and subsidies. Econometric estimates of past trade and related effects of the GATT/WTO are then examined, before turning to estimates of the benefits of WTO accession and of potential benefits from WTO‐sponsored trade facilitation. The paper concludes that while it remains difficult to attribute reforms directly to the GATT/WTO, the overall body of evidence presented supports the economic profession's consensus that this institution has contributed substantially to global economic welfare.     

The effects of bargaining power on trade credit in a supply network

We develop a multi-tier supply network model, rooted in social network theory, to evaluate the effect of bargaining power on trade credit and to track the effect of buyers' trade credit on suppliers' trade credit. We apply social network analysis to measure companies' bargaining power in the supply network of Hennes & Mauritz AB (H&M, the Swedish clothing retailer). The results show that the buyer's bargaining power significantly affects the choice of trade credit, and that the supplier's “upstreamness” is significantly associated with its trade credit. We find limited evidence to support the notion of a financial bullwhip effect, a result that merits further research, since this study is limited to the network of one company up to its fourth tier of suppliers in one financial year. Our results can be applied by companies seeking to control their cash flow and, therefore, the financial pressure within their supply network. This study contributes to the literature by bringing social network measures into the buyer–supplier financial flow, as well as offering one of the first empirical examinations of the propagation of financial pressure in a multi-tier supply network.     

White collar unions in Switzerland

Swiss trade unionism differs from that of other countries: lower strike incidence, lower trade union density and organisational segregation of blue and white collar employees. The author reviews and explains these differences and reports on the attitudes towards trade unionism of the German-speaking members of Switzerland's biggest white collar trade union organisation.     

Union organising in ‘Big Blue's backyard

This article considers the effectiveness of recruitment and organising approaches during ISTC's successful recognition campaign at FCI Ltd, focussing in particular on the role of ‘shadow stewards’. The case study illustrates the positive impact of innovative grassroots campaigning associated with the organising model. However, it also highlights the real difficulties facing key union players in transforming successful recruitment and recognition into effective workplace representation and robust trade unionism.