小浪底移民项目评价的实践与思考

为探索移民项目评价的基本规律，完善移民项目评价体系，根据小浪底移民项目的实践，从经济效益评价、生产生活环境评价和移民收入分析3个方面进行研究。介绍世界银行、监理、监测等部门在小浪底移民安置工作中使用的各种评价方法以及最终的评价结果，分析评价数据与移民安置效果的关联性和评价方法的可行性。研究表明，应尽快建立一套较为完善的水库移民项目评价体系，并使评价工作制度化，同时，对移民项目进行经济效益评价也具有重要意义。     

USING INPUT DEMAND AND PRODUCTION FUNCTION MODELS TO ASSESS THE NET BENEFITS OF DAIRY HERD IMPROVEMENT

Two methods of evaluating (the net social benefits of the dairy herd-improvement scheme operated by the New South Wales Department of Agriculture are described. The first involves derivation of 'an input demand' function for the herd-recording aspect of the scheme and use of this function to estimate the economic surplus (net of both private and public costs) provided by the service. The second approach involves deriving a production function for milk from which it is possible to estimate the contribution herd-recording and artificial breeding have made to increasing milk yields per cow. Social benefits are shown to have been less than social costs for herd-recording, however dairy farmers have made net private gains. The herd-recording scheme has contained a regressive subsidy element. The production function approach show that artificial breeding and herd-recording were profitable complements in production.     

基于SEM的土地整理项目“三农”效益评价——以陕西省揉谷镇347份农户调查为例

研究目的:从农户视角出发,以陕西省杨凌示范区揉谷镇347份农户调查为基础,定量评价土地整理项目的"三农"效益,为提高土地整理效益提供相关建议。研究方法:选取农业效益、农村效益和农民效益共3个潜变量和15个观测变量建立结构方程模型(SEM)。研究结果:(1)揉谷镇土地整理项目"三农"效益处于中等水平,农村效益较好,农业效益次之,农民效益最低;(2)农村效益和农业效益均对农民效益产生了一定的显著影响,但农业效益对农民效益的影响较低,农业效益每增加1单位,农民效益仅增加0.18单位。研究结论:在今后的土地整理过程中,要努力提高"三农"效益,特别是农民效益的提升,更要确保农民分享到农村效益、农业效益,推动"三农"协调发展,共同进步。     

黑龙江垦区发展地表水灌溉工程效益分析

根据黑龙江垦区现有的水资源储量、现代化管理水平及科技手段等条件，对垦区地表水灌溉工程的现状及发展规划进行了论述，并结合当前粮食生产实际情况，对地表水灌溉工程的经济效益、社会效益和生态效益进行分析。     

How much do farmers value their independence?

A farmer's decision to contract or produce independently depends on the distribution of income and the nonpecuniary attributes associated with both business arrangements. The benefits to growers from contracting (such as risk reduction) may be overestimated if the nonpecuniary benefits enjoyed by independent producers (such as the right to make management decisions and own the commodity produced) are not accounted for. This study uses data from a U.S. national survey of hog producers to estimate (1) the difference in expected net returns between contracting and independent production, (2) the premium a representative farmer would pay for the risk reduction provided by a contract, and (3) the premium a farmer would pay for the nonpecuniary benefits associated with independent production. Results indicate that growers have a strong preference for autonomy—with moderately risk‐averse growers being willing to pay more for the attributes of independent production than they would for the risk‐reducing benefits of a contract.     

基于模糊模型识别的石碑坪镇土地整理社会生态效益评价

研究目的：建立土地整理社会生态效益评价指标体系，量化各指标并对其评价方法进行研究。研究方法：文献资料法、模糊模型识别法、定性与定量相结合。研究结果：（1）构建评价体系指标，其中大多数指标能够准确量化；（2）基于定性与定量的模糊模型识别方法对社会生态效益做出了整体的科学判断。研究结论：该案例的社会效益属于A3类（非常显著）、生态效益属于B2类（比较显著）。因此，模糊模型识别方法在土地整理社会生态效益评价中具有广阔的应用前景。     

基于环境经济效益的旅游开发区投资决策分析

旅游业在给人们带来丰厚收益的同时,也对环境产生不利影响。旅游开发区内的环境经济效益,是旅游业生存和发展的基础。环境经济效益分析中影响因素较多,基于旅游资源开发主体——水域的环境脆弱性,运用环境经济学、技术经济学、现代数学等有关理论和方法,以某旅游开发区为实例,说明费用——效益分析方法在评价水域旅游开发区环境经济效益的有效性。     

中国耕地“非粮化”的时空格局演变及其影响因素

研究目的:探究中国耕地“非粮化”时空演化特征及影响因素,以期为中国耕地资源保护和粮食安全保障提供参考。研究方法:GIS空间分析、空间计量模型。研究结果:(1)2004—2018年,中国整体的“非粮化”水平呈波动变化,2016年后“非粮化”最为显著;“非粮化”类型逐渐由蔬菜、油料、棉花等多类型向蔬菜瓜果转变。(2)“非粮化”在空间上大致表现出由东北向西南逐步严重的态势,类型多为蔬菜和油料作物,又以蔬菜为主导。(3)各影响因素中,人工成本和种粮比较收益在后期对非粮种植有显著负向影响;劳动力非农就业促进“非粮化”现象发生;机械动力水平在前期对“非粮化”具有显著负向影响,后期表现为正面作用;良好的政策环境对“非粮化”具有抑制作用。研究结论:为应对耕地“非粮化”现象,应继续保障粮食种植收益、完善农业生产设施与服务市场、健全法律政策与制度,以稳定粮食生产。     

种粮大户粮食生产效益的非价格影响因子分析——对江西省种粮大户的调查

通过对2005年江西省种粮大户种粮效益非价格因素的实证分析,发现种粮大户种粮效益与粮食经营规模、机收面积和家庭人数呈正相关关系。而与种粮农户的文化水平、性别、年龄等因素相关性不强。这一结果说明当前农村农业劳动力成本在不断上升,农业投入中劳动力的替代效应逐渐下降;同时,这也是当前政府在粮食主产区的政策支持与引导的结果,说明当前粮食主产区的农业政策是有效的。即推动粮食主产区农村土地流转制度的完善和适度规模经营,对粮食主产区的良种补贴和购买大型农机具的补贴,有利于种粮大户种粮食生产效益的提高。同时,提高农业科技成果物化水平,有利于农业科技成果在不同文化水平的粮农中推广应用。     

Carbon offsets and agriculture: Options,obstacles, and opinions

While carbon offsets in agriculture can play a role in addressing climate change, they are not a perfect substitute for direct emission reductions. As shown in this paper through various arguments and case studies, climate policies in Canada have avoided the use of offsets to be sold in carbon markets, preferring instead to incentivize adoption of best management practices (BMPs) that provide environmental benefits along with climate mitigation benefits. We argue that this is a preferred policy option due to the perils and pitfalls inherent in the measurement and monitoring required to identify offset credits. While an appropriate approach might be to penalize Canadian farmers for any emissions their activities cause, this may do more harm than good. Canadian agricultural production is highly efficient and technologically advanced; therefore, reductions in Canada's contribution to the global food supply will result in less-efficient production occurring elsewhere (i.e., leakage) that increases global greenhouse gas emissions.     

陕西省主要粮食作物生产成本收益研究——以小麦、玉米为例

陕西省是我国的农业大省,粮食作物的生产成本和收益与农民收入直接相关,对农村经济的可持续发展具有重要影响。文章分析了陕西省主要粮食作物的种植现状,以小麦、玉米为例探究了主要粮食作物的生产成本收益,并对生产中存在的问题及潜力进行了详细分析,结果表明,尽管实施了多项惠农政策,粮食作物生产仍表现为成本高,收益低,农民播种积极性不高;粮食生产面临形势严峻,但陕西省粮食生产有很大的潜力可以挖掘。该文还提出了提高农民耕种积极性、提高粮食作物单产水平、实现农业产业化等对策建议,以期为提高粮食作物产量和品质,提高生产成本收益提供一定依据。     

Measuring rural consumers’ willingness to pay for quality labels using experimental auctions: the case of aflatoxin‐free maize in Kenya

Aflatoxins are a common health hazard in tropical countries, especially in rural areas. New methods to reduce aflatoxin levels in food staples, as well as cheaper test methods, are being developed, but consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for these improvements is unknown. A survey was conducted with a representative sample of rural consumers (1,344 in total, 63% women) in all major maize‐production zones of Kenya. The survey included an experimental auction with maize products of different qualities. The results showed that many rural consumers were aware of aflatoxins, but few understood their health risks. Respondents were willing to pay a premium for maize tested for aflatoxins and labeled, but asked a high discount for maize that was visibly contaminated with moldy grain. The premium was higher for respondents with education and in regions with aflatoxicosis outbreaks. Knowledge of aflatoxins substantially reduced the overall WTP, but did not increase the WTP for tested maize. Welfare analysis indicates that mandatory testing would result in substantial benefits if the cost of testing can be lowered to below the premium.     

An assessment of the economic and environmental potential of biomass production in an agricultural region

The establishment of deep-rooted perennial species and their processing for biomass-based products such as renewable energy can have benefits for both local and global scale environmental objectives. In this study, we assess the potential economic viability of biomass production in the South Australian River Murray Corridor and quantify the resultant benefits for local and global scale environmental objectives. We model the spatial distribution of economically viable biomass production in a Geographic Information System and quantify the model sensitivity and uncertainty using Monte Carlo analysis. The total potentially viable area for biomass production under the Most Likely Scenario is 360,728 ha (57.7% of the dryland agricultural area), producing over 3 million tonnes of green biomass per annum, with a total Net Present Value over 100 years of A$ 88 million. The salinity in the River Murray could be reduced by 2.65 EC (μS/cm) over a 100-year timeframe, and over 96,000 ha of land with high wind erosion potential could be stabilised over a much shorter period. With sufficient generating capacity, our Most Likely Scenario suggests that economically viable biomass production could reduce carbon emissions by over 1.7 million tonnes per annum through the production of renewable energy and a reduced reliance on coal-based electricity generation. Our analyses suggest that biomass production is a potentially viable alternative agricultural system that can have substantial local scale environmental benefits with complimentary global scale benefits for climate change mitigation.     

ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF THE FARM WOODLAND SCHEME IN SCOTLAND

This paper describes an economic evaluation of planting under the Farm Woodland Scheme in Scotland based on the calculation of the Scheme's net UK Exchequer cost (NEC) and its relationship to the benefits observed through a survey of first-year Scheme entrants. It was found that the motivation in planting was primarily for ‘environmental’ benefits such as landscape, amenity, wildlife and sport. Income and timber production were much less important. On average, payments under the Scheme under-compensated farmers for their direct and opportunity costs associated with planting. When based on agricultural savings in the year of planting, the annual NEC was #58 per ha, but this cost increases substantially if the additionality principle is applied. Anticipated benefits in terms of farm output reduction, income diversification, employment and timber production are identified but the effects are not large. Environmental benefits were not included in the evaluation and these may provide greater justification for the expenditure.     

THE THEORY OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH BENEFITS

This paper describes a new approach to the theory of agricultural research benefits based on component benefits rather than, as is customary, on surpluses. The surplus concept nevertheless emerges when the distribution of the national benefit is considered. Various published methods (Grossfield-Heath, Lindner-Jarrett, Akino-Hayami, Griliches I and II) are derived as special cases of the theory and numerically compared. Applications are briefly considered; Griliches II is used for the variability of crop yields and some typical results for the distribution of benefits are given.     

Agricultural impacts and profitability of land consolidations

The study evaluates agricultural impacts and profitability of land consolidations. The study analyses how land consolidations improve the property structure and how much it reduces the farming costs. The study also calculates whether the ensuing benefits exceed the costs incurred. The study material included 12 land consolidation projects that were implemented in Finland. Standard statistical methods, production cost calculations and feasibility analyses were used to analyze the material. Overall the study showed that land consolidation is an effective and feasible land management tool for the improvement of property structure. The average production costs were discovered to decrease 15% due to the significant improvement of property structure.     

山洪灾害防治效益评价指标及其计算方法研究

结合我国山洪灾害发生的特点，在总结大江大河防洪效益评价方法的基础上，提出了山洪灾害防治效益评价指标体系设置的原则和内容，初步建立了一套山洪灾害防治效益评价指标体系，并对其分析计算方法进行了研究。     

The importance of seasonal variability and tactical responses to risk on estimating the economic benefits of integrated weed management

Seasonal variability is an important source of risk faced by farmers and, regardless of an individual's attitude to risk, there are options to tactically adjust production strategies as the outcomes of risk become known. The objective of this article is to measure the economic benefits of alternative approaches to managing weeds, one of the most serious production problems in Australian cropping systems. A bioeconomic model that combines weed biology, crop growth and economics is developed to value the effects of seasonal variability and the role of tactical responses and sequential decision making in determining an optimal integrated weed management strategy. This shows that there are substantial differences in the measured long‐term benefits from deterministic and stochastic simulations. It is concluded that, for research evaluation of technologies that involve complex biological and dynamic systems, ignoring the impacts of seasonal variability, responses to risk and sequential decision making can lead to an incorrect estimate of the economic benefits of a technology. In this case study of optimal weed management strategies in Australia, the size of the error is high.     

河南小麦产业链各环节成本收益研究

本文通过对河南省小麦产业链各环节的深入、细致调研,利用调研的第一手数据全面剖析了小麦生产、收购、加工、销售各环节的成本收益情况.研究发现,粮食涨价是由于成本推动的,小麦制品的价格上涨主要是农业之外的因素引起的.控制粮食价格上涨的重点不在于小麦生产、收购环节,而是要限制投入品价格的不合理上涨、降低流通环节的费用、适当压缩销售环节小麦制品过大的利润空间.最后针对调研中发现的问题提出了相应政策建议.     

The costs and benefits of land fragmentation of rice farms in Japan*

Land fragmentation, in which a farm operates multiple, separate plots of land, is a common phenomenon in Japan and many other countries. Usually, land fragmentation is regarded as a harmful phenomenon as it increases production costs and reduces the advantages of scale economies. However, it is also known that fragmentation may have beneficial effects in reducing risk through spatial dispersion of plots. Thus, land fragmentation has both costs and benefits, and whether it is beneficial or harmful is determined by the magnitude of these costs and benefits. This article investigates the costs and benefits of land fragmentation empirically using panel data from Japanese rice farms. The empirical results reveal that fragmentation increases production costs and offsets economies of size, and these impacts strengthen as farm size increases. Moreover, although fragmentation does reduce production risk, its monetary value is far below the cost of land fragmentation. From these findings, we conclude that land fragmentation is an impediment to efficient rice production in Japan.