我国货币政策传导过程中的“渗漏”效应

通过对 5年多来我国“积极”货币政策效果不尽如人意原因的研究 ,本文认为 :货币政策传导过程中有大量货币不是被传导并作用于生产、流通和消费等实体经济环节 ,而是“渗漏”到股票市场“漏斗”和银行体系“黑洞” ,其效应构成了实现货币政策目标的反制力量。公众心理预期变化、收入分配差距拉大和区域经济发展不平衡是“渗漏”效应产生的最直接、甚至是最重要的原因 ,它们交织在一起 ,共同驱动货币在货币政策传导过程中大量“渗漏” ,导致严重的“渗漏”效应。为提高我国货币政策的有效性 ,必须有效抑制“渗漏”效应。     

Economic Consequences of Armaments Production: Institutional Perspectives of J.K. Galbraith and T.B. Veblen

J.K. Galbraith’s short book, How to Control the Military, boldly championed political and institutional reforms to curb “the military power.” Galbraith stood out among economists for his advocacy of arms reduction negotiations with the Soviet Union. He rejected the hypothesis that the Soviet Union nurtured an aggressive expansionary military policy. At the same time, he maintained that the tenor of national policy and the shaping of national priorities emanated from the Pentagon. Galbraith’s assertion that the military was the dominant force within the “military-industrial complex” was never empirically demonstrated. Nor did he adequately address the crucial role that military outlays played in advancing major technological innovations which underwrote the accumulation process. Veblen offered a more comprehensive analysis of the role of military expenditures, correctly showing that forms of “waste” are highly functional to the institutional and ideological structure of the U.S. economy. Military Keynesianism constituted the evolution of his conceptualization.     

Complexity Economics as Heterodoxy: Theory and Policy

Complexity economics has quickly become a powerful research program for real-world economics in recent years. This article provides an overview of complexity economics, and argues that it is incompatible with the “equilibrium” and “optimality” conceptions of the mainstream and its “market economy.” Instead, it develops older heterodox — including evolutionary-institutional — issues like self-organization, emergence, path?dependence, idiosyncrasies, lock-ins, or skewed power distributions. Also, the space for emergent institutions through the “intentionality” of agents, including their improving collective performance, reducing complexity, and others, is investigated. This article considers complex adaptive systems through “games on networks” in an “evolution-of-cooperation” perspective. Moreover, a surge in policy implications of economic complexity has emerged, even if still rather general. With some more specific implications derived, the article again reveals the close similarities with long-standing heterodoxies: namely, pragmatist policy conceptions in this respect.     

Empowering Firm Owners by Separating Voting from Buying and Selling Shares

This paper discusses a new system of firm governance. In the system, the responsibility for voting the shares of a firm (“voice”) is given to the people who ultimately provided the money, who, however, have to delegate it to proxy voting institutions. The system helps overcome collective action problems and conflicts of interest within firms, and it reduces the private benefits of control. The disadvantages for firm governance may be relatively modest. However, since the new system of voice is a conceptual innovation, the analysis of its effects is rather tentative. Further research and experimentations are required for firmer conclusions.     

对农民收入增长问题的一些思考

受我国农户所拥有资源的特征和农业比较效益长期下降特性的局限,农民收入问题很难从农业生产和农业政策中找到大幅度增长的出路和突破口。解决农民收入增长问题,必须跳出“农”字,扭转思维,到“非”农更广阔的领域里去寻找答案。     

网络流行语“中国大妈”和“中国式X”解析--基于认知及社会文化维度

伴随着新媒体的发展，“中国大妈”和与其结构类似的“中国式X”的网络流行语正在受到越来越多的关注。代表一种独特的文化现象的“中国式X”，本身就是一个语言模因，它的各种次生语言形式在模因的作用下得以在社会大众之间广泛繁殖和衍生。我们既可以从认知语言学的概念重叠和概念整合角度对“中国大妈”的形成及其所隐含的调侃语义进行解读，也可以从社会文化学领域的模因论视角对“中国式X”的传播进行探讨。     

新工业革命背景下多元智能组织研究——以GE和海尔为案例

新工业革命背景下组织需要从一元集权制向多元治理转变,本文通过对通用电气公司(GE)和海尔的跨案例研究发现组织从一元集权制向多元治理转变的“四反”演进路径。其中,“反集权”的本质是组织权利分化,组织演进逻辑是从“垂直”到“水平”,以构建赋权赋能为核心的扁平网络化组织。“反边界”的本质是组织边界扩张,组织演进逻辑是从“有形”到“无形”,以构建动态无边界的虚拟组织。“反分工”的本质是组织流程再造,组织演进逻辑是从“分散”到“整合”,以构建人机融合智能型组织。“反范式”的本质是管理范式转变,组织演进逻辑是从“有序”到“无序”,以构建平台为主要特征的后现代管理范式。进一步对“四反”路径进行整合分析,构建了基于“四反”的多元智能组织理论模型,该模型以后现代管理哲学为理论基础,符合新工业革命背景下组织发展的“与时俱进”的时代特征,将引领未来的组织发展方向。     

资本市场开放与企业创新——基于沪深港通交易制度的准自然实验

资本市场改革能否有效促进实体经济发展是当前中国经济发展面临的重大挑战。基于企业创新研究视角，以沪深港通交易制度作为外生事件，采用多时点双重差分模型(DID)系统考察了我国资本市场开放对公司创新的影响及内在作用机理。研究发现，沪深港通交易制度实施显著提升了标的公司创新绩效，表现为专利产出增加，且该现象在管理层持股比例高、融资约束强的样本中较为显著，表明沪深港通制度通过提升管理层创新意愿与提高企业创新能力两大途径提升创新绩效。进一步分析发现，资本市场开放对企业创新的正向影响在信息透明度低、沪深港通交易活跃股以及法制环境不完善样本中更显著。上述结论不仅拓展了企业创新影响因素研究，也为实施沪深港通交易制度带来的经济影响提供了来自微观公司层面的经验证据，亦为后续完善该项制度提供了参考与借鉴。     

Digital Economy,Entrepreneurship, and High-Quality Economic Development: Empirical Evidence from Urban China

The paper discusses the effects of the digital economy on high-quality urban development and its mechanism. Theoretically, the digital economy can empower high-quality development by boosting entrepreneurial vitality. Empirically, the paper measures the overall level of the digital economy and high-quality development of the 222 Chinese cities at and above the prefecture level during 2011–2016, depicts the entrepreneurial vitality of the cities with the microscopic data of the business registration information and makes quantitative analysis on this basis. The result shows: Digital economy has remarkably improved high-quality development and this conclusion still exists after the robustness test selecting historical data as the instrumental variables and the Broadband China pilot policy as the quasi experiment. The analysis of the mechanism of action indicates that encouraging public entrepreneurship is an important mechanism of the digital economy to release the dividend of high quality development. Finally, thanks to the threshold model and the spatial model, it is found that the positive effect of the digital economy has the characteristics of nonlinear increment and spatial spillover of the “marginal effects.” The research of the paper stimulates the reasons for high-quality development and the understanding of the effects, mechanisms and regional differences of high-quality development empowered by the digital economy.     

市场风险、契约关系与农户空间溢出效应*--基于人感染禽流感（H 7N 9）风险视角

文章基于高邮市77个养禽大户的第一手调研数据（包括疫情突发期和风险持续期这两个时期）,运用空间计量模型,实证分析了禽流感风险持续冲击下,“公司＋农户”的契约关系对养禽户行为的影响,并从禽流感风险引致不确定性的视角,探讨了农户行为的空间溢出效应。研究发现：与“独立”养禽户相比,“公司＋农户”的契约关系对农户养殖规模有显著的正向影响。当市场风险增强时,养禽户行为之间的空间溢出效应更加明显。就笔者所知,文章采用农户数据所展开的禽流感疫情空间效应研究,应是新制度经济学的新尝试,研究结果对于禽业可持续发展具有重要的政策含义。     

Social Economics and Evolutionary Institutionalism Today

This paper discusses theoretical and methodological elements that constitute social economics. It also considers those elements for evolutionary (Veblenian) institutional economics. It investigates how these “heterodoxies” may further converge. Such convergence would probably not trigger a complete unification, but lead to a broadly defined common research program and a strategy for joint “heterodox” survival, in face of the ranking game of the neoclassical “mainstream” and of the dominant powers supporting it as the discipline providing ideological legitimization. A common denominator of “heterodoxies” in terms of real-world orientation, direct interdependency and interaction of agents (social decision situations), appropriate complexity, and the treatment of values is drafted. Theoretical concepts discussed include complex and open systems, individual agency, institutions, embeddedness, networks, social reform, and process orientation. Formal methodological developments considered are complex modeling, game theory, or computer simulations. We arrive at a more formal common basis, which we term socio-economics. We also consider the relations of evolution and institutions, the institutional dichotomy, and the theory of institutional change. The monism of the “market” of the “mainstream” turns out to dissolve into the institutional diversity of real-world network forms, which helps explaining real-world forms of markets, hierarchies, or spatial clusters. Focuses of “heterodox” convergence will have to be the related “microfoundations” and “macrofoundations” projects, integrating an interdisciplinary “naturalistic” approach to genetic-cultural co-evolution of cooperation, and social reform. While modern socio-economics makes “heterodoxies” leading in economic research, their future still appears open between ideological cleansing and extinction through the mainstream, and proactive paradigmatic pluralism.     

Public good,collective action and financial regulation

The economy‐wide liberalization reforms implemented from the 1980s onwards in major capitalist economies had deep impact on financial markets. Public financial regulation has been replaced by self‐regulation, financial innovations proliferated and gave rise to many diversified and complex speculative operations that financialized most economic decisions and actions. Recurrent instabilities and crises became common ground in advanced as well as in emerging market economies and converged on the global systemic crisis in 2007–08, notwithstanding the efficient market doctrine that kept supporting financial liberalization. This crisis raised concerns about the relevance of market‐based financial regulation with regard to the systemic viability of capitalist economies and brought forward the central role of financial regulatory framework in the sustainable working of open societies. This article considers financial stability as a collective action problem through the lens of the literature on the commons and public goods. It seeks to contribute to the development of a relevant paradigm of collective action in the provision of a particular public good, financial stability, through a particular public action, financial regulation. After recalling the broad outlines of the evolution of financial markets and the institutional environment in the last decades, the monetary and financial characteristics of a capitalist economy are presented. The monetary and financial structure turns out to be a public infrastructure. The criticalness of financial transactions for the whole economic society together with the non‐rivalrousness and non‐excludability of financial stability determine the very publicness of the latter. The continuity of financial relations fundamentally needs a viable financial system. However, this is a complex issue as it falls into the classical opposition “private vs public” and calls for a collective action framework consistent with the characteristics of a financialized economy. This article argues that financial stability cannot be ensured through individual‐decision‐based market relations because of the endogenous limits of individual actions and the systemic nature of instabilities they can provoke. A specific treatment of finance as a public utility and of financial stability as a public good is then required. The study on the organization and management of financial markets, namely financial governance issue, ultimately leads to consider financial regulation as a collective action problem that calls for a public supervision framework through an extra‐market macroregulation, apt to allow economy to work in a viable way.     

行政区划调整与地区市场主体活力*——基于“撤县设区”政策与创业活动的视角

本文采用双重差分法（DID）考察了“撤县设区”政策对撤并县域创业活动的影响。研究发现“撤县设区”政策可以显著提高撤并县域的创业活跃度和创业规模。本文从劳动力要素和土地要素使用的视角，解释了“撤县设区”政策影响地区创业活动的机制，发现“撤县设区”政策显著提高了撤并县域的劳动力流入，降低了农业用地使用面积；本文还发现“撤县设区”政策对创业活动的促进效应在公司制企业和第二、第三产业中更强；在调节效应方面，本文发现当撤并县域所在地级市的基础设施水平越高、营商环境越好时，“撤县设区”政策对撤并县域创业活跃度的正向影响越强。     

From Judicial Sovereignty to Collective Democracy: The Development of J.R. Commons’ Perspective on Progressive Institutional Change

Abstract:

This article clarifies the significance of “collective democracy” in the works of John R. Commons by comparing it with “judicial sovereignty” in terms of its contribution to “progress.” We can thus answer two issues that Paul D. Bush does not clearly address: (i) what setup for policy formation contributes to progress and (ii) what is the role of economists within a collective democracy? Based on the comparison, the answer to the first question is collective democracy, and regarding the second question, the roles of economists as both economists and “institutional” economists are extrapolated.     

Study on Medium- and Long-Term Fiscal Policies to Cope with Climate Change under the “Dual Carbon” Goals

Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality constitute an extensive, profound and systemic economic and social change. It is worthwhile to explore how fiscal policy, as a key institutional arrangement in the public policy system to cope with climate change, can play a fundamental and pillar role. Based on literatures, theories and empirical materials, this paper systematically explores the relationship between climate change and public finance. The fiscal impact of climate change will eventually be reflected in fiscal behavior, fiscal costs and fiscal relations, and the fiscal system has the adaptability of an “automatic stabilizer” and the proactiveness to enable the Discretionary Approaches function when facing climate change impacts. This implies such a governance logic of fiscal policy that is systematic, forward-looking and flexible in addressing climate change. In the future, it is necessary to further incorporate climate change or related environmental factors into the fiscal policy framework, target the two key aspects of mitigation and adaptation, and carry out a holistic, systematic and forward-looking reform of the existing fiscal expenditure policy, fiscal revenue policy, fiscal investment and financing policy, government budget system, government procurement policy and ecological compensation policy. While highlighting the “governance” function of fiscal policy in addressing climate change, Chinese government needs to strengthen the coordination and collaboration between fiscal policy tools and other public policies, and magnify the governance effectiveness of fiscal policy in the process of addressing climate change. This paper helps understand the positioning, role and influence of fiscal policy in the process of addressing climate change, provides a basis for better playing the fundamental and underpinning role of the modern fiscal system in the governance of ecological civilization, and presents an analytical framework for building a theoretical system of ecological fiscal governance.     

Creating Legitimacy,Reciprocity, and Transfer Programs

Sustainable development prospects are not substantially visible in the comparative analysis of models of capitalism. The concept of sustainable development does not appear in the initial theoretical framework of the “variety of capitalism” approach or in the “diversity of capitalism” approach. This article aims to contribute to current thinking about the interaction between the diversity of capitalism and sustainable development, based on the concepts of institutional complementarity and hierarchy, and to question the dynamics of various forms of capitalism in this perspective. The example of economic policies aimed at tackling global warming shows how each form of capitalism adopts measures that are compatible with its own unique configuration of complementary institutions, helping to make it “greener.” However, this trend fits into a dynamic of “limited sustainability” that does not challenge the finance-dominated institutional hierarchy or the current growth regime. The non-viability of our production/consumption model on a global scale calls for a more radical change in capitalism, combined with a shift in the institutional hierarchy.     

“互联网+”赋能企业创新的异质动态效应研究——政府研发资助的调节作用

在国家推动互联网与实体经济深度融合的关键时期,以政府研发资助为切入点,剖析政府应如何更好地支持企业践行“互联网+”创新战略。在阐释政府研发资助影响“互联网+”企业创新内在机制的基础上,基于2006-2018年中国省级面板数据及门槛回归模型进行实证检验。研究发现：“互联网+”显著推动企业创新效率改善,而政府研发资助有助于强化这种积极影响;企业层面的“互联网+”创新溢出存在明显的政府研发资助三重门槛效应,只有当政府研发资助强度超越一定门槛条件时,才能最大限度地释放“互联网+”的创新溢出;政府研发资助调节下的“互联网+”创新溢出效应具有显著空间异质性特征,在不同空间层面上显现出差异化和动态化调节影响;现阶段政府研发资助对“互联网+”企业创新的正向调节溢出还相对有限,且实际调节效果具有差异化特征,表现为中部地区最为显著、东部地区次之、西部地区最弱的阶梯状分布。研究结论可为新时代下构建时空分异的政府研发资助策略,进一步加快释放“互联网+”企业创新的溢出红利提供一定启示。     

“江南style”中的文化认同及其对中华文化的启示

“江南style”在全球范围内广泛流行,被称之为“亚文化的逆袭”。从文化社会学的角度出发,运用文本分析法和表演行动分析法研究“江南style”究竟有何魅力能够为全世界受众所认同,是很有意义的。“江南style”的产生,由于在两极分化、去中心化和地方化的全球化背景下,存在文化混杂与文化普遍无根性,需要文化认同。对“江南style”的内容和形式进行分析,发现“江南style”不仅体现了当下全球文化的混杂性、契合了普遍存在的自嘲心理,而且多媒体传播技术也推进了“江南style”在全球范围内的传播。“江南style”的成功经验,为中华文化对外传播提供了重要启示。     

Introduction: Reform in the Provision of Health Care

The term “sustainable consumption” is subject to many interpretations, from Agenda 21's hopeful assertion that governments should encourage less materialistic lifestyles based on new definitions of “wealth” and “prosperity”, to the view prevalent in international policy discourse that green and ethical consumerism will be sufficient to transform markets to produce continual and “clean” economic growth. These different perspectives are examined using a conceptual framework derived from Cultural Theory, to illustrate their fundamentally competing beliefs about the nature of the environment and society, and the meanings attached to consumption. Cultural Theory argues that societies should develop pluralistic policies to include all perspectives. Using this framework, the paper examines the UK strategy for sustainable consumption, and identifies a number of failings in current policy. These are that the UK strategy is strongly biased towards individualistic, market-based and neo-liberal policies, so it can only respond to a small part of the problem of unsustainable consumption. Policy recommendations include measures to strengthen the input from competing cultures, to realize the potential for more collective, egalitarian and significantly less materialistic consumption patterns.     

Experimental evidence on the ‘insidious’ illiquidity risk

This paper introduces an experiment aiming to investigate the contribution of illiquidity risk to the total risk of a collective investment project. If implemented, the project succeeds with a known probability. Yet the project fails if the quota of investors is not reached in the first place. Hence strategic uncertainty compounds its effect with the “intrinsic risk” of the project. Results confirm the insidious nature of illiquidity: as long as a first collective default does not occur, investors accept high intrinsic risk projects. After a first default, they become extremely prudent and come back to market only gradually. After several defaults, private agents manage to coordinate on a relatively low intrinsic risk above which they refuse to participate in the project. Macroeconomic policy implications follow.