Time-varying stock returns and labor income risks in the US and UK

I propose and estimate conditional asset pricing models where the risk premiums of the markets are related to the conditional covariance of the markets with labor income growth within and across countries and the volatility of the markets are related to the shocks and interactions of stock returns and labor income growth. I document that the risk premiums for the US and UK stock markets are more related to the conditional covariance of returns with the labor income growth within countries than across countries. I also find significant interactions of volatilities between stock returns and labor income within countries but not across countries. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that prices of domestic stocks are determined to a greater extent by stochastic discount factors of domestic investors than foreign investors and vice versa.     

Exchange rate and inflation risk premia in the EMU

This paper tests the effects of exchange rate and inflation risk factors on asset pricing in the European Union (EU) stock markets. This investigation was motivated by the results of Vassalou [J. Int. Money Finance, 2000, 19, 433–470] showing that both exchange rate and foreign inflation are generally priced in equity returns, and it studies the opportunity of evaluating the causality between these sources of risk after the elimination of the EU currency risks because of the adoption of the single currency. Our results show that both exchange rate and inflation risks are significantly priced in the pre- and post-euro periods. Moreover, the sizes of exchange rate and inflation risk premiums are economically significant in the pre- and post-euro periods. Futhermore, the UK and excluding-UK inflation risk premiums explain, in part, our evidence concerning a large EUR/GBP exchange rate risk premium and the existence of an economically significant domestic non-diversifiable risk after euro adoption. Hence overlooking inflation risk factors can produce an under/overestimation of the currency premiums and a miscalculation of the degree of integration of stock markets.     

Asset pricing anomalies: Liquidity risk hedgers or liquidity risk spreaders?

We capture two distinct investing preferences – hedging against aggregate liquidity risk or betting on it – in the cross-section of stock returns. A three-factor model underpinned by exposures to changes in market liquidity, isolating two alternating patterns, is developed. Our results can be summarized in the following ways: one, the improved performance of recent asset-pricing models is driven by factors that mimic liquidity risk hedging and are linked to cross-sectional mispricing. Two, our model outperforms competing models in explaining time-series return variation across market states. Three, our parsimonious model enables an understanding of diverging return premia in the cross-section. Four, the estimated risk premiums in our model correspond to theoretical, economic, and statistical restrictions holistically across varied and complex anomaly structures. In this respect, the performance of the proposed model is even better than the risk premiums on factors in the model that have the largest cross-sectional r-squared values.     

Valuing Debt in a Complex Capital Structure

This article extends previous bond valuation models to account for more realistic assumptions regarding financial distress. Realized value of an individual bond under severe financial distress will reflect the expected outcome of credit-event negotiations and the relative priority listing of the security. We explicitly represent the probability rate of credit-event occurrence as a function of firm value relative to the fixed overall debt obligations of the firm. Risk premiums generated under reasonable parameter value choices fall within the range of observed bond risk premiums. Our model also provides an explanation as to why observed bond risk premia are positive after adjustment for default.     

How Much of Bank Credit Risk Is Sovereign Risk? Evidence from Europe

We examine European banks' exposures to systematic and country‐specific sovereign risk. We organize our investigation around a multifactor affine credit risk model estimated on credit default swap data of different maturities. During the 2008–15 period, about one third of banks' credit risk is sovereign. However, banks strongly differ both in the magnitude and type of their sovereign exposures. Measures of indirect exposures, such as bank size and return on equity, capture these cross‐sectional differences better than measures of direct exposures. Furthermore, the properties of the distress risk premiums turn out to be important to understand the effect of sovereign risk on bank funding costs.     

An analysis of option pricing under systematic consumption risk using GARCH

An issue in the pricing of contingent claims is whether to account for consumption risk. This is relevant for contingent claims on stock indices, such as the FTSE 100 share price index, as investor’s desire for smooth consumption is often used to explain risk premiums on stock market portfolios, but is not used to explain risk premiums on contingent claims themselves. This paper addresses this fundamental question by allowing for consumption in an economy to be correlated with returns. Daily data on the FTSE 100 share price index are used to compare three option pricing models: the Black–Scholes option pricing model, a GARCH (1, 1) model priced under a risk-neutral framework, and a GARCH (1, 1) model priced under systematic consumption risk. The findings are that accounting for systematic consumption risk only provides improved accuracy for in-the-money call options. When the correlation between consumption and returns increases, the model that accounts for consumption risk will produce lower call option prices than observed prices for in-the-money call options. These results combined imply that the potential consumption-related premium in the market for contingent claims is constant in the case of FTSE 100 index options.     

REIT Risk Premium Sensitivity and Interest Rates

This analysis investigates several aspects of the relationship between daily REIT stock risk premiums and various interest rates. Consistent with prior research, the general findings indicate that interest rates do impact REIT returns. This study specifically finds that stock returns are more sensitive to maturity rate spread between short- and long-term treasuries than the credit rate spread between commercial bonds and treasuries. In addition, the analyses document a structural model shift during the nineties that has made REITs more sensitive to credit risk. In additional to change in investor clientele, an analysis of declining REIT credit-worthiness points to a root cause for this shift.     

The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums in Real Estate Returns

We examine the predictable components of returns on stocks, bonds, and real estate investment trusts (REITs). We employ a multiple-beta asset pricing model and find that there are varying degrees of predictability among stocks, bonds, and REITs. Furthermore, we find that most of the predictability of returns is associated with the economic variables employed in the asset pricing model. The stock market risk premium is highly important in capturing the predictable variation in stock portfolios, and the bond market risk premiums (term and risk structure of interest rates) are important in capturing the predictable variation in bond portfolios. For REITs, however, both the stock and bond market risk premiums capture the predictable variation in returns. REITs have comparable return predictability to stock portfolios. We conclude that there is an important economic risk premium for REITs that are not captured by traditional multiple-beta asset pricing models.     

Analysis of embedded options in individual pension schemes in Germany

Newly introduced government-subsidized pension products in Germany are required to contain a promise by the seller to provide a “money-back guarantee” at the end of the term. The client is also given the right to stop paying premiums at any time (paid-up option). In this case, the amount of all premiums paid must also be guaranteed by the seller at maturity, no matter when the client stopped paying the premiums. Previous analyses of guarantees in such government-subsidized pension products have ignored this additional option. Within a generalized Black/Scholes framework, we analyze the value of the paid-up option for different products, market scenarios, and client behavior. Our results indicate that the paid-up option significantly increases the value of the money-back guarantee. Furthermore, we find that reducing volatility by shifting the client’s assets from stocks to bonds as maturity approaches is a suitable means of reducing the risk arising from the “pure” money-back guarantee but much less effective in reducing the risk arising from the paid-up option. JEL Classification G13 · G23 · G28     

Calendar effects and the pricing of risk: the UK evidence

For some time there has been a puzzle surrounding the seasonal behaviour of stock returns. This paper demonstrates that there is an asymmetric relationship between risk and return across the different months of the year. The paper finds that systematic risk is only priced during the months of January, April and July. Variance risk and firm size are priced during several months of the year including January. An analysis of the relative behaviour of size based securities reveals that firm capitalization makes a valuable contribution to the magnitude of risk premiums.     

A Market-based Risk Classification of Financial Institutions

In this article we derive, estimate, and analyze a multifactor model of the monthly holding period returns on the stocks of exchange-traded financial institutions. In addition to bond and equity returns, the factors include default, liquidity, and term structure risk premiums plus variables that measure changes in deposit demand. To ensure that our sample has a large number of firms, we use data from January 1981 through December 1988. The equity return explains a large share of time-series variation in financial institutions' returns. The additional factors implied by theory have little incremental explanatory power. The two-factor model regression coefficients have considerable cross-sectional variation. This permits us to group intermediaries into portfolios with similar risk exposures. These portfolios bear no relation to the SIC codes that group intermediaries by their charters and lines of business.     

Variance risk premiums in foreign exchange markets

Based on the theory of static replication of variance swaps we assess the sign and magnitude of variance risk premiums in foreign exchange markets. We find significantly negative risk premiums when realized variance is computed from intraday data with low frequency. As a likely consequence of microstructure effects however, the evidence is ambiguous when realized variance is based on high-frequency data. Common to all estimates, variance risk premiums are highly time-varying and inversely related to the risk-neutral expectation of future variance.When we test whether variance risk premiums can be attributed to classic risk factors or fear of jump risk, we find that conditional premiums remain significantly negative. However, we observe a strong relationship between the size of log variance risk premiums and the VIX, the TED spread and the general shape of the implied volatility function of the corresponding currency pair. Overall, we conclude that there is a separately priced variance risk factor which commands a highly time-varying premium.     

基于双因素Wang转换方法的长寿风险债券定价研究

在比较国外经典债券设计的基础上,基于离散型死亡率模型假设,设计一种可调整上触碰点的触发型长寿债券,运用带永久跳跃的APC模型和双因素Wang转换定价方法对长寿债券进行定价,实证结果表明:在不同的参数组合下的风险溢价均处在一个合理的范围,由于模型参数多、可用死亡率数据年限短,风险溢价的结果对无风险利率等参数敏感性较高.     

The impact of the euro on risk exposure of the world’s major banking industries

In this paper, we examine if the introduction of the euro impacted the risk exposures, risk premiums and, hence, the cost of equity of the banking industry of 11 Eurozone countries, five non-Eurozone European countries, and three non-European countries. Using a multi-factor asset-pricing model that allows time variation in the risk exposures, we find a statistically significant and economically large decline in the cost of equity of the banking industry across the three groups of countries following the introduction of the euro. Though we find an increase in the market and currency exposures after the euro, consistent with increased competition among banks, the fall in the cost of equity arises from an economically large decline in the currency premium. As expected, the Eurozone banking industry experienced the largest decrease. Our results are inconsistent with the argument that increased banking competition arising from the legislative changes accompanying the introduction of the euro would result in an increase in the overall risk premium of the banking sector.     

Credit variance risk premiums

This paper studies variance risk premiums in the credit market using a novel data set of swaptions quotes on the CDX North America Investment Grade and High-Yield indices. The returns of credit variance swaps are negative and economically large, irrespective of the credit rating class. They are robust to transaction costs and cannot be explained by established risk factors and structural model variables. We also dissect the overall variance risk premium into receiver and payer variance risk premiums. We show that credit variance risk premiums are mainly driven by the payer corridor, which is associated with worsening macroeconomic conditions.     

A macroeconomic hedge portfolio and the cross section of stock returns

We use a stock's returns on days when important macroeconomic news is released to form a hedge portfolio, which is long (short) in stocks which have a sensitive (insensitive) reaction to the surprise component of the macroeconomic news. This macroeconomic hedge portfolio (MHP) earns a risk premium of about 5% p.a. over time and a similar premium when used as a risk factor in an asset pricing model. This premium can be interpreted as a cost of an insurance against unexpected changes in an investor's marginal utility. We show that risk premiums associated with the MHP are estimated with a higher precision than traditional macroeconomic tracking portfolios. Furthermore, when the MHP is present in a common factor model, risk factors like high minus low lose much of their ability to explain the cross section of stock returns.     

International asset returns and exchange rates

We present a consumption-based international asset-pricing model to study global equity premiums, the US riskfree rate and the cross section of international asset returns. The model entails idiosyncratic, country-specific consumption risk, which helps explain the magnitude of global equity premiums. It also features country-specific habit formation, which helps explain the level of the interest rate on the US short-term Treasury bills traded by domestic and international investors. We find that the model explains approximately 40–50% of the cross section of currency and equity premiums as well as expected returns from value and growth portfolios of at least a dozen countries. Changes in real exchange rates are responsible for explaining approximately half of the cross section of international asset returns.     

Factor pricing in commodity futures and the role of liquidity

This paper empirically investigates the pricing factors and their associated risk premiums of commodity futures. Existing pricing factors in equity and bond markets, including market premium and term structure, are tested in commodity futures markets. Hedging pressure in commodity futures markets and momentum effects is also considered. This study combines these factors to discuss their importance in explaining commodity future returns, while the literature has studied these factors separately. One of the important pricing factors in equity and bond markets is liquidity, but its role as a pricing factor in commodity futures markets has not yet been studied. To our knowledge, this research is the first to study liquidity as a pricing factor in commodity futures. The risk premiums of two momentum factors and speculators’ hedging pressure range from 2% to 3% per month and are greater than the risk premiums of roll yield (0.8%) and liquidity (0.5%). The result of a significant liquidity premium suggests that liquidity is priced in commodity futures.     

Stochastic risk premiums,stochastic skewness in currency options,and stochastic discount factors in international economies

We develop models of stochastic discount factors in international economies that produce stochastic risk premiums and stochastic skewness in currency options. We estimate the models using time-series returns and option prices on three currency pairs that form a triangular relation. Estimation shows that the average risk premium in Japan is larger than that in the US or the UK, the global risk premium is more persistent and volatile than the country-specific risk premiums, and investors respond differently to different shocks. We also identify high-frequency jumps in each economy but find that only downside jumps are priced. Finally, our analysis shows that the risk premiums are economically compatible with movements in stock and bond market fundamentals.     

The Pricing of Event Risks with Parameter Uncertainty

Financial instruments whose payoffs are linked to exogenous events, such as the occurrence of a natural catastrophe or an unusual weather pattern depend crucially on actuarial models for determining event (e.g., default) probabilities. In many instances, investors appear to receive premiums far in excess of these modeled actuarial probabilities, even for event risks that are uncorrelated with returns on other financial assets. Some have attributed these larger spreads to uncertainty in the probabilities generated by the models. We provide a simple model of such parameter uncertainty and demonstrate how it affects rational investors' demand for event risk exposures. We show that while parameter uncertainty does indeed affect bond spreads, it does not tend to increase spreads by much. Indeed, the spread increases due to parameter uncertainty in our numerical examples are on the order of only 1–2 basis points. Moreover, in many instances, including those that have the most sensible correlation settings, parameter uncertainty tends to decrease the size of bond spreads. We therefore argue that parameter uncertainty does not appear to be a satisfactory explanation for high event-risk returns.