Assessing models of individual equity option prices

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This study sheds light on risk exposures of cooperative banks in Austria, Germany and Italy. We investigate how major risk elements of banks in these...     

Do subjective expectations explain asset pricing puzzles?

The structural uncertainty model with Bayesian learning, advanced by Weitzman (AER 2007), provides a framework for gauging the effect of structural uncertainty on asset prices and risk premiums. This paper provides an operational version of this approach that incorporates realistic priors about consumption growth volatility, while guaranteeing finite asset pricing quantities. In contrast to the extant literature, the resulting asset pricing model with subjective expectations yields well-defined expected utility, finite moment generating function of the predictive distribution of consumption growth, and tractable expressions for equity premium and risk-free return. Our quantitative analysis reveals that explaining the historical equity premium and risk-free return, in the context of subjective expectations, requires implausible levels of structural uncertainty. Furthermore, these implausible prior beliefs result in consumption disaster probabilities that virtually coincide with those implied by more realistic priors. At the same time, the two sets of prior beliefs have diametrically opposite asset pricing implications.     

Delta-Hedged Gains and the Negative Market Volatility Risk Premium

We investigate whether the volatility risk premium is negativeby examining the statistical properties of delta-hedged optionportfolios (buy the option and hedge with stock). Within a stochasticvolatility framework, we demonstrate a correspondence betweenthe sign and magnitude of the volatility risk premium and themean delta-hedged portfolio returns. Using a sample of S&P500 index options, we provide empirical tests that have thefollowing general results. First, the delta-hedged strategyunderperforms zero. Second, the documented underperformanceis less for options away from the money. Third, the underperformanceis greater at times of higher volatility. Fourth, the volatilityrisk premium significantly affects delta-hedged gains, evenafter accounting for jump fears. Our evidence is supportiveof a negative market volatility risk premium.     

Variance bounds on the permanent and transitory components of stochastic discount factors

In this paper, we develop lower bounds on the variance of the permanent component and the transitory component, and on the variance of the ratio of the permanent to the transitory components of SDFs. Exactly solved eigenfunction problems are then used to study the empirical attributes of asset pricing models that incorporate long-run risk, external habit persistence, and rare disasters. Specific quantitative implications are developed for the variance of the permanent and the transitory components, the return behavior of the long-term bond, and the comovement between the transitory and the permanent components of SDFs.     

Predictability of currency carry trades and asset pricing implications

This paper studies the time series predictability of currency carry trades, constructed by selecting currencies to be bought or sold against the US dollar, based on forward discounts. Changes in a commodity index, currency volatility and, to a lesser extent, a measure of liquidity predict in-sample the payoffs of dynamically re-balanced carry trades, as evidenced by individual and joint p-values in monthly predictive regressions at horizons up to six months. Predictability is further supported through out-of-sample metrics, and a predictability-based decision rule produces sizable improvements in the Sharpe ratios and skewness profile of carry trade payoffs. Our evidence also indicates that predictability can be traced to the long legs of the carry trades and their currency components. We test the theoretical restrictions that an asset pricing model, with average currency returns and the mimicking portfolio for the innovations in currency volatility as risk factors, imposes on the coefficients in predictive regressions.     

Inflation, asset prices, and the term structure of interest rates in monetary economics

This article offers a tractable monetary asset pricing model.In monetary economies, the price level, inflation, asset prices,and the real and nominal interest rates have to be determinedsimultaneously and in relation to each other. This link allowsus to relate in closed form each of the dependent entities tothe underlying real and monetary variables. Among other featuresof such economies, inflation can be partially nonmonetary andthe real and nominal term structures can depend on fundamentallydifferent risk factors. In one extreme, the process followedby the real term structure is independent of that followed byits nominal counterpart.     

Determinants of corporate social responsibility disclosures: Evidence from India

Over the last few decades, a number of studies, mostly in the western countries, have investigated the nature and frequency of corporate social responsibility disclosures, their patterns and trends, and their general relationships with corporate size and profitability. This study seeks to extend the knowledge regarding the relationship between a number of financial and non-financial corporate characteristics and the level of social responsibility disclosures based on an extensive sample of top Indian companies. Corporate size and industry category are found to correlate with the corporate social disclosures of the companies and the corporate reputation as recognised through awards and social ratings has also been observed to be a significant factor that influences the social disclosures made by the Indian companies.     

First-passage probability, jump models, and intra-horizon risk

This paper proposes a risk measure, based on first-passage probability, which reflects intra-horizon risk in jump models with finite or infinite jump activity. Our empirical investigation shows, first, that the proposed risk measure consistently exceeds the benchmark value-at-risk (VaR). Second, jump risk tends to amplify intra-horizon risk. Third, we find large variation in our risk measure across jump models, indicative of model risk. Fourth, among the jump models we consider, the finite-moment log-stable model provides the most conservative risk estimates. Fifth, imposing more stringent VaR levels accentuates the impact of intra-horizon risk in jump models. Finally, using an alternative benchmark VaR does not dilute the role of intra-horizon risk. Overall, we contribute by showing that ignoring intra-horizon risk can lead to underestimation of risk exposures.     

Do call prices and the underlying stock always move in the same direction?

This article empirically analyzes some properties shared byall one-dimensional diffusion option models. Using S&P 500options, we find that sampled intraday (or interday) call (put)prices often go down (up) even as the underlying price goesup, and call and put prices often increase, or decrease, together.Our results are valid after controlling for time decay and marketmicrostructure effects. Therefore one-dimensional diffusionoption models cannot be completely consistent with observedoption price dynamics; options are not redundant securities,nor ideal hedging instruments - puts and the underlying assetprices may go down together.