升息能遏制通货膨胀吗——Patman效应在中国货币政策中的检验

当前中国正面临较大的通货膨胀压力,货币当局必须寻求有效的政策工具驯服通货膨胀。在此背景下,升息反而会加剧通货膨胀的“Patman效应”尤其值得关注。本文将成本渠道引入一个标准的新凯恩斯模型并使用中国数据对模型进行校准和模拟,发现在数据支持的参数取值范围内,正利率冲击确实能够导致通货膨胀上升。基于中国季度和月度数据的货币政策冲击实证检验也发现,从数据中识别的正利率冲击同样会带来通货膨胀稳健的正初始响应。因此,货币当局应该将利率工具可能具有的Patman效应纳入考虑,在应对通货膨胀时谨慎使用利率政策。     

铸币税与通货膨胀税

人们通常把铸币税和通货膨胀税混为一谈,其实两者是不同的概念,虽然他们之间有密切的联系。本文从铸币税的含义的逐步演变过程谈起,通过凯恩斯的货币需求函数分析了铸币税和通货膨胀税的区别以及政府获得更多铸币税的条件。     

利用新凯恩斯主义混合菲利普斯曲线预测:从调查数据中得出的证据

本文通过通货膨胀调查预测来对英国的数据进行了为估计新凯恩斯主义的菲利普斯曲线。我发现,相对于传统的估计方法,调查预测能够更好地估计新凯恩斯主义的菲利普斯曲线以及更好地预测通货膨胀的表现。     

谈我国经济增长中的通货膨胀

谈我国经济增长中的通货膨胀陈晓蕾在西方经济学中，无论是凯恩斯学派还是货币学派，都对通货膨胀问题进行了大量研究；在当前的现实生活中，无论是发达国家还是发展中国家，各国政府都面临着通货膨胀与经济增长的两难抉择。西方学者们将通货膨胀的成因归结为需求拉上型、...     

台湾贸易经济发展对我国的启示——以“蒋王论战”为视角

2008年~2011年间,我国与上世纪70年代的台湾地区面临相同的通货膨胀问题和背景。台湾著名经济学家蒋硕杰教授与王作荣教授的公开论战给台湾地区治理通货膨胀指明了道路,造就了台湾日后的经济成就。从台湾的治理通货膨胀的成功经验可以看出：通货膨胀对经济发展有弊无益;只有正利率才能遏制通货膨胀。台湾地区治理通货膨胀的实质在于摒弃了凯恩斯主义的政府干预政策。我们完全可以学习和借鉴台湾地区当年的治理通货膨胀思路,解决我国的通货膨胀问题。     

失业与通货膨胀现象的经济数学关系

失业问题和通货膨胀问题是宏观经济学中的两个重要分支问题,得到了经济学家的普遍关注。本文基于历史上对其关系的讨论,从凯恩斯理论出发,结合菲利普斯曲线分析,并提出政策建议。     

公众预期、货币政策与宏观经济波动——基于Agent新凯恩斯模型的经验研究

本文将ACE建模思想纳入到新凯恩斯理论框架,构建基于Agent的新凯恩斯模型,并利用拓展后的模型研究货币政策对宏观经济波动的影响。研究结果显示,我国经济中存在25%的家户是完全理性,存在73%的厂商是有限理性;产出与通货膨胀对货币政策冲击的反应较传统新凯恩模型平缓,并且持续时间更长;货币政策冲击是通货膨胀波动的主要来源,真实货币余额的偏好冲击可以解释大部分的产出波动。因此,在考虑了有限理性以及适应性预期后,经济的内在传导机制发生了变化,理解公众预期形式对分析宏观政策的经济影响至关重要。     

价格管制不能化解中国式通胀

对于通货膨胀的危害,凯恩斯曾指出,再没有什么比通过摧毁一国的货币来摧毁一个社会的基础更容易的事情了。这个过程涉及破坏经济过程的所有隐藏经济法则的力量,并以绝大多数无法诊断的方式进行。也就是说,通货膨胀通常是由货币泛滥引起,而通货膨胀出现或恶化不仅会导致市场价格的严重扭曲,     

通货膨胀对我国资本市场的影响研究

我国今年一季度的消费者物价指数（CPI）为5.0%,物价不断上涨货币持续贬值,虽然我国目前尚处于温和式通货膨胀,但这种情况在持续下去通货膨胀将会演变为＂飞奔式通货膨胀＂,进而会影响股票市场剧烈的波动和持续的震荡,因此,通货膨胀对于我国资本市场而言具有深远的影响。此文从界定通货膨胀开始,通过描述我国通货膨胀的现状以及通货膨胀的演变,来研究通货膨胀对资本市场的有何影响。     

通货膨胀的货币因素解释模型

关于通货膨胀的原因虽然有不同的解释,本文认为这是需求和供给共同作用的结果。这里讲的需求是因为货币过量供应而导致的需求,而并非凯恩斯讲的实际因素而引起的需求。通过以上验证货币增长和CPI之间的正相关关系,可以确认这个通货膨胀是由于货币因素引起的。为了     

Inequality,Inflation, and their Impact on China's Investment Environment in the 1990s and beyond

Inequality, inflation, and unemployment have become increasingly explosive problems in today's China. In conjunction with an analysis of the spatial pattern of inflation, this paper examines the current trend of China's spatial disparities, in terms of economic output, real consumption, and real income, within inter-provincial, inter-regional and urban-rural framework. This paper also investigates the combined effect of the current high rate of inflation and spatial disparity on China's investment and business environment in the 1990s. Findings of this paper suggest that inter-regional inequalities in economic development and income distribution, especially since 1990, have been accelerated/exacerbated by high inflation, which appears to hit the poorer areas disproportionally. Given the reinforcement of disparity and inflation and the current upsurges of rampant localism, the investment and business environment of China in the 1990s, in terms of political and social unrest and economic profitability, will be severely undermined and will, therefore, become increasing uncertain. It is likely that this trend will extend beyond the millenium and last at least until the early 2000s.     

The Political Effects of Ageing on Inflation

Why do different countries exhibit different inflation rates? Most political economy accounts emphasise the role of ideas and institutions: as economic research shows that low inflation is achievable at no economic cost, governments delegate monetary policy to independent central banks. Countries with independent central banks and unions that anticipate the consequences of their actions by coordinating wage bargaining in turn achieve lower inflation. This conventional wisdom downplays the importance of interests, ignoring the significant influence that a growing electoral group — the elderly — has on inflation. Because the elderly are politically powerful and inflation averse, countries with more elderly citizens force political parties to adopt more economically orthodox policies when in power, resulting in lower inflation rates in those countries. Ageing populations may therefore lock in a low inflation regime, even when this is not economically desirable.     

思想政治教育的视角转变：从主体性到主体间性

主体间性思想政治教育通过吸收借鉴西方哲学的理念,并且在继承传统思想政治教育实践经验的基础上,超越了传统的“单子式主体”思想政治教育所存在的局限性,能够让受教育者回归自我,进而实现教育双方的良好沟通,创造出生动活泼的教育局面,从而获得良好的思想政治教育效果。要实现思想政治教育视角的转变,不仅需要树立“以人为本”的教育理念．还需要积极构建交往式的思想政治教育,并且大力推进思想政治教育的生活化,才能够步入到主体间性的思想政治教育。     

Perspectives on U.S. Fiscal Policy

Under current policies the deficit may get to 7% of GDP in 10 years. Our political process is not coming to grips with responsible fiscal policy. We have both parties agreeing a deficit is a great way of attracting votes. Future increases in spending are coming from entitlements. We need incentives in health care to do things more efficiently and encourage competition. The biggest risk for the U.S. economy is the global bond market. We need to get moving. If not, eventually inflation, or a crisis of confidence, will be the wake-up call on the growth of U.S. debt.     

Offshoring: Political Myths and Economic Reality

Overseas outsourcing, commonly known as offshoring, is an aspect of globalisation that has attracted significant political and media attention. In this lecture David Smith discusses the phenomenon and examines the costs and benefits both to the companies and countries from which activities are being outsourced and to the host economy. He concludes from a review of the evidence that there are indeed significant benefits, and that they mainly accrue to the outsourcing country, in the form of lower inflation, faster growth in real incomes and an improved product‐ivity performance (the shift to higher value‐added activities). So why is there so much political sensitivity about offshoring? One is that, unlike in the case of manufacturing, the jobs being offshored are commonly seen as those in which advanced economies retain comparative advantage. Another is that the new, higher value‐added jobs that will be created are in areas and activities that barely exist at present. The biggest problem, he concludes, is that while the victims of offshoring can be easily identified, and have a political constituency, the gains are spread more thinly across the economy. This is the challenge for economists and pro‐free trade politicians.     

通货膨胀中的地方政府金融行为分析

本文针对中国转型以来出现的宏观经济波动现象,结合传统的体制惯性效应及现存体制中政府的角色,建构了一个关于利益博弈型的通货膨胀模型来对地方政府的金融博弈行为进行分析.分析表明,现行政绩考核制度的诱致造成地方政府有更大的积极性对区域内的商业银行进行控制,以扩大本地区的投资规模,争夺更多的金融资源,而不会主动顾及其政策的溢出效应.地方政府之间的这种金融行为最终会导致全社会的经济运行维持在通货膨胀的X-无效率解点上.要走出这一博弈困境和避免通货膨胀周期性波动,不仅须依靠宏观调控,还须进一步深化体制改革和加快建立以市场化为主导的.投融资体制,在确保商业银行业务独立性的同时,更要以法律约束地方政府的金融行为.     

大连市区域性通胀问题的成因分析

大连市区域性通胀问题的产生机理是极其复杂的,既有来自内部区域经济运转的因素,又有来自外部经济的负面性冲击,因此,大连市区域性通胀的成因分析也就具有了现实意义。全文共包括三部分内容:第一部分是大连市区域性通胀问题的现状;第二部分是大连市区域性通胀问题的成因分析,这将借助于Granger因果检验、供需理论及工资刚性的研究;第三部分是本文的结语。     

三阶段·双重任务·一个转变——马克思主义政党中国化的多维视角透视

作为＂马克思主义中国化＂重要内容的＂马克思主义政党中国化＂是伴随着中国共产党九十年成熟之路的探索而逐渐展开的,然而由于历史和现实的原因,我们对中国共产党九十年成熟之路的研究力度还不够,从而在一定程度上决定了马克思主义政党中国化的广度和深度。中国共产党九十年成熟之路可以从实践的历史性、理论的现实性和政治的理想性三个维度确证其阶段性的进程、现实性的任务和终极性的目标,描述马克思主义政党中国化的客观过程,寻找中国共产党履行历史使命的主观努力,从而为中国共产党的执政能力建设和先进性建设寻找合理性与合法性的理由,为社会主义现代化建设的顺利进行提供基本的和根本的政治保证。     

Inflation and stock returns: An industry analysis

Four hypotheses about the negative relationship between inflation and stock returns are analyzed with real returns in seven industries from 1968:4 to 1982:1. The tax and risk hypotheses predict that inflation effects will differ among firms. The alternative-asset and spurious-correlation hypotheses predict uniform inflation effects. The results support the spurious-correlation hypothesis; the negative inflation effect is insignificant in six of eight regressions when expected real income is added to regressions of real returns on expected inflation. The negative inflation effect is significantly related to depreciation expense in two industries, as predicted by the tax hypothesis.     

我国通货膨胀过程的社会福利成本度量与经验分析

通过利用1994年至2006年之间的我国GDP、M1和名义利率的季度数据,采用协整检验和回归系数估计方法,获得我国长期货币需求函数,在此基础上对我国通货膨胀的社会福利成本进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,我国较高的通货膨胀率会带来比较大的福利成本,因此,当前通胀压力较大的时期,采取适当的宏观调控措施,将通货膨胀率控制在3%以下的低水平状态。