我国发展房地产信托投资基金的可行性分祈

本文结合投资需求、房地产融资多元化、资本市场的发展、房地产市场的完善对我国房地产引进REITs的动因进行分析，同时从政策法规、实际操作的视角讨论了REITs在我国实施的可行性，最后得出REITs在我国切实可行的结论并提出相关建议。     

我国房地产信托投资基金发展趋势

房地产投资信托基金(REITs)是兼跨房地产市场和资本市场的金融衍生工具,在中国已越来越受到人们的关注。文章介绍了REITs的概念、类型和主要特点,并从目前国内的投资环境、房地产业基本现状出发,参考国外REITs的经验,对我国发展REITs提出相关建议。     

VaR在REITs风险管理中的应用——以历史模拟法为例

市场风险是REITs(房地产投资信托基金)的主要风险来源。本文把证券风险管理的VaR(在险价值)引入REITs风险管理,并通过数据和实证的方法验证在我国房地产市场进行VaR历史模拟法进行风险管理的效果,希望对房REITs监控市场价格风险起到指导作用。     

境外房地产投资信托（REITs）发展对我国的启示

房地产投资信托(REITs)源于美国,迄今已有近50年的历史.20世纪90年代以来,REITs在美国迅猛发展,逐步成为商业地产投资的主流.在当前国内大力发展直接融资、建立多层次的房地产金融体系的呼声日益高涨的时期,适时推出REITs对于稳定房价、缓解房地产企业对银行过度依赖、化解金融风险意义重大.本文旨在通过对全球REITs的发展研究为我国REITs提供参考,进而推动我国REITs行业的发展.     

投资信托用于我国房地产融资的研究

本文以房地产投资信托(REITs)的应用过程为线索,对房地产投资信托基金的概念、特征及其我国发展房地产投资信托(REITs)产品的模式进行了探析,最后对我国房地产项目投资信托(REITs)提出了相关建议。     

中国房地产投资信托基金模式探讨

房地产市场的健康发展对每个国家都具有重要意义,房地产市场的风险往往带来宏观经济的波动,影响金融稳定。目前房地产投资信托基金（REITs）在很多国家都已成为十分重要的房地产投资工具,本文通过比较其它国家发展REITs的实践,并结合中国的具体情况,对中国REITs的发展模式提出了自己的见解。     

房地产投资信托基金的国际经验比较与借鉴

REITs(Real Estate Investment Trusts,简称RESTs)拓宽了房地产企业的融资渠道,又增加了普通投资者的投资途径,必将对我国的房地产发展带来积极的影响。但我国REITs发展刚起步,法律、监管制度等不完善,投资者也需时间熟悉等,因此有必要分析借鉴国际上发展REITs的成功经验。该文分析比较了美国和亚洲各国发展REITs的成功经验及对我国的启示。     

天津发展房地产投资信托基金的制度障碍及改进

近年来,随着中国房地产市场的迅速发展,房地产泡沫、不良资产和流动性不足等问题也越来越引起政府以及金融界的关注,资产证券化正被纳入立法程序,而作为房地产证券化的先头产品——房地产信托投资基金（REITs）渐渐浮出水面,被金融界所广泛研究。本文通过对REITs产品的介绍和对天津市房地产融资渠道的整体分析,提出了在天津发展REITs的制度障碍及改进措施。     

亚洲与美国关于REITs发展模式的比较分析

通过分析REITs在美国、香港、新加坡、日本、韩国、澳大利亚等国家和地区的发展历程，比较REITs的两种发展模式和立法要求，以期在我国房地产行业从房地产开发向房地产投资转型阶段中，对发展房地产投资信托基金（REITs）提供借鉴意义。     

REITs迎来快速发展机遇期

2015年将是我国REITs快速发展的元年,房地产基金经由REITs向轻资产转型的时间窗口已经到来。2014年起,全国房地产市场普遍降温,市场观望氛围浓厚,房地产市场陷入销售困局。市场的萎靡,引发地方政府和决策层的普遍担忧,2014年三季度后各地限购政策纷纷解禁,其后,信贷政策调整、央行降息以及年底开发商为消化库存加大推盘力度等多重因素相互叠加,最终促使行业在四季度出现了显著回升,2014年12月     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…