THE IMPORTANCE OF CONSECUTIVE SPELLS OF POVERTY: A PATH‐DEPENDENT INDEX OF LONGITUDINAL POVERTY

In this paper we propose a new index of individual poverty in the longitudinal perspective, taking into account the way poverty and non‐poverty spells follow one another along individual life courses. The Poverty Persistence Index (PPI) is based on all the pairwise distances between the waves of poverty. The PPI is normalized and it assigns a higher degree of (longitudinal) poverty to people who experience poverty in consecutive, rather than separated, periods, for whom the distances from the poverty line are larger along time and moreover, when the worst years are consecutive and/or recent. We also propose an aggregate index of persistence in poverty (APPI) in order to measure the distribution of the persistence of poverty in a society, and evaluate at once the diffusion of poverty, its depth, duration, and recentness. The indices are tested in comparison with other measures from the literature both at the individual as well as at the societal level.     

HETEROGENEITY OR TRUE STATE DEPENDENCE IN POVERTY: THE TALE TOLD BY TWINS

The purpose of this study is to distinguish between two different reasons that poverty could persist on an individual level. This study takes advantage of the similarity within pairs of identical twins to separate family‐specific heterogeneity from true state dependence, where the experience of poverty leads to a higher risk of future poverty. The results, based on a four‐variate probit model, show the importance of true state dependence in poverty. When using a poverty measure based on disposable income, family‐specific heterogeneity explains between 21 and 25 percent of poverty persistence in the Swedish sample of twins.     

中国农村人口贫困变动研究——基于多维脱贫指数测度

本文通过多维贫困识别方法构建相应指数，提出了在返贫和脱贫不同方向上对多维贫困的变动进行分解的思路。同时，用2010—2014年中国家庭追踪调查数据对中国农村人口多维贫困的变动进行了分解，得出以下结论：第一，收入依然是农村人口多维贫困的主要维度，但在改善收入贫困的同时应该防范健康维度返贫的风险。第二，农村人口的多维贫困状况在不断改善，但是由于返贫的影响，脱贫的效果受到了较大削弱，因此在注重脱贫的同时，不应忽视返贫的风险。第三，持续贫困人口贫困状况虽然后来有所改善，但是2012年的恶化状况提示我们对于暂时未能脱贫的人口，还需要采取措施缓解其贫困状况。     

A SHAPLEY DECOMPOSITION OF MULTIDIMENSIONAL CHRONIC POVERTY IN ARGENTINA

This paper proposes a Shapley decomposition to analyse the evolution of chronic poverty in a multivariate setting using a chronic poverty measure proposed by Alkire and colleagues. The decomposition makes possible to assess a vast array of information to find the drivers of change in chronic poverty, and could be a valuable tool in the way public policy programmes focus resources. We present an empirical application of the changes in chronic poverty in Argentina during the period 2004–12 using the Permanent Household Survey. We found that households with older adults show great persistence of multidimensional chronic poverty in time while the employment indicators is found to be an important driver of the intensity of chronic poverty.     

Lifting You up or Dragging You Down? The Role of Financial Inclusion in Poverty Transitions Among Italian Households

We estimate the effect of financial inclusion on transition probabilities into/out of poverty. By exploiting a longitudinal sample of Italian households between 2002 and 2016, we find that financial inclusion is effective in both reducing the likelihood of entering poverty and helping the poor to climb out of it. According to our estimates, access to deposit accounts reduces the risk of falling below the poverty line by 2.7 percentage points (pp) and increases the chance of exiting poverty by 4.4 pp. Significance and magnitude of such effects are confirmed when considering different poverty thresholds and definitions, alternative proxies for financial inclusion as well as alternative empirical strategies.     

A Bayesian Measure of Poverty in the Developing World

We propose a new methodology to revise the international poverty line (IPL) after Ravallion et al . (2009) using the same database, but augmented with new variables to take into account social inclusion in the definition of poverty along the lines of Atkinson and Bourguignon (2001). We provide an estimation of the world income distribution and of the corresponding number of poor people in the developing world. Our revised IPL is based on an augmented two‐regime model estimated using a Bayesian approach, which allows us to take into account uncertainty when defining the reference group of countries where the IPL applies. The influence of weighting by population is discussed, as well as the IPL revision proposed in Deaton (2010). We also discuss the impact of using the new 2011 PPP and the recent IPL revision made by the World Bank.     

Testing Prediction Performance of Poverty Models: Empirical Evidence from Uganda

This paper examines the performance of a method of predicting poverty rates. Because most developing countries cannot justify the expense of frequent household budget surveys, additional low‐cost methods have been developed and used. The prediction method is based on a model linking the proportion of poor households to suitable explanatory variables (consumption proxies). These consumption proxies are variables that can be collected at much lower cost through smaller annual surveys. Several applications have shown that such models can produce poverty estimates with confidence intervals of a similar magnitude to the poverty estimates from the household budget surveys. There is, however, limited evidence of how well the methods perform out‐of‐sample. A series of seven household budget surveys conducted in Uganda in the period 1993–2005 allows us to test the prediction performance of the model. We test the poverty models by using data from one survey to predict the proportion of poor households in other surveys, and vice versa. The results are encouraging, as all models predict similar poverty trends. Although in most cases the predictions are precise, sometimes they differ significantly from the poverty level estimated from the survey directly.     

中国、巴西：城市反贫困的比较及其启示

中国、巴西都是发展中国家,贫困问题尤其是城市贫困问题在一定程度上具有相似性。从巴西反贫困经验看,中国在城市反贫困问题上应缩小收入分配差距,扩大中等阶层收入,保护农村流动人口合法权益,给予城市农村流动人口与城市居民平等待遇并建立健全社会保障体系。     

MEASURING POVERTY ACCOUNTING FOR TIME

In this paper we make a methodological proposal to measure poverty accounting for time by proposing a new family of intertemporal poverty indexes that aims at reconciling the way poverty is measured in a static and a dynamic framework. Our index is able to consider the duration of the poverty spell and the social preference for equality in well‐being given that, in contrast with others that have been previously proposed, it is sensitive to the level of inequality between individual complete poverty experiences over time. Moreover, other indices in the literature can be interpreted as special cases of our more general measure. An empirical illustration shows the relevance of considering the distribution of poverty experiences among the population in an international analysis.     

中国农村居民贫困测度研究——基于山西的调查分析

运用Atkinson（1987）单维贫困测量与Alkire和Foster（2008）多维贫困测量相结合的方法,对山西农村居民贫困情况进行了测度。实证结果表明：从单维视角看,山西农村贫困主要体现在饮用水、消费、收入三个方面,全省三个主要贫困区存在差异;从多维视角来看,山西省农村居民存在多维贫困现象,考虑的贫困维度越多,贫困程度越严重。东部太行山区与北部高寒冷凉区的饮用水问题也比较严重,北部高寒冷凉区相比其他两个地区其教育问题较为突出,北部高寒冷凉区与西部吕梁山区的住房问题也需要关注。因此,山西今后要从多维度识别和瞄准贫困,针对地区贫困特点予以扶持。     

A NON‐PARAMETRIC MEASURE OF POVERTY ELASTICITY

We estimate the growth elasticity of poverty (GEP) using recently developed non‐parametric panel methods and the most up‐to‐date and extensive poverty data from the World Bank, which exceeds 500 observations in size and represents more than 96 percent of the developing world's population. Unlike previous studies which rely on parametric models, we employ a non‐parametric approach which captures the non‐linearity in the relationship between growth, inequality, and poverty. We find that the growth elasticity of poverty is higher for countries with fairly equal income distributions, and declines in nations with greater income disparities. Moreover, when controlling for differences in estimation technique, we find that the reported values of the GEP in the literature (based on the World Bank's now‐defunct 1993‐PPP based poverty data) are systematically larger in magnitude than estimates based on the latest 2005‐PPP based data.     

Always Poor or Never Poor and Nothing in Between? Duration of Child Poverty in Germany

Abstract. This paper analyses the duration of child poverty in Germany. Observing the entire income history from the individuals' birth to their coming of age at age 18, we are able to analyse dynamics in and out of poverty for the entire population of children, whether they become poor at least once or not. Using duration models, we find that household composition, most importantly single parenthood, and the labour market status as well as level of education of the household head are the main driving forces behind exit from and re‐entry into poverty and thus determine the (long‐term) experience of poverty.     

The Covariance Structure of East and West German Incomes and its Implications for the Persistence of Poverty and Inequality

Abstract. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), this paper analyzes the dynamics of equivalent income in East and West Germany in the years following reunification. Special emphasis is given to the separation of permanent and transitory components, the persistence of transitory shocks and their implications for the persistence of poverty and inequality. The results suggest that in West Germany, between 52 and 69 per cent of cross-sectional income inequality was permanent, and that poor individuals stayed in poverty for two years on average. In East Germany, the share of the permanent component in overall income inequality rose continuously from 20 per cent in 1990 to 72 per cent in 1998, reaching a level near the one that prevailed in West Germany during the same period. The rising importance of time-invariant components in East German incomes was also reflected in expected poverty durations which slightly increased from 1.47 years in 1990 to 1.67 years in 1998.     

藏区反贫困再思考

藏区反贫困形势仍然严峻,表现在贫困面大、返贫突出、新的城镇贫困群体的出现与扩大等方面.为此必须采用综合性的反贫困措施:如生态移民;通过提高农牧民个人素质,促进传统农牧业的发展,构建新农村;大力发展旅游业,以增加就业机会;改变医疗资源配置,遏制因病返贫;控制人口增长;加强立法、建立社会保障基金等.     

Decomposing Poverty Change: Deciphering Change in Total Population and Beyond

In the understanding of decomposing poverty change, the growth effect of mean income is replaced with the growth effect of total income and the impact of change in total population. These two, along with changes in inequality, form the three broader effects that can be computed in multiple ways depending upon the base period and the sequence of calculation. Changing the base does not alter the broader effects while specific attributions within each effect get interchanged. For a given base, there will be six possible sequences and we take an average of these to compute the three broad effects. Finally, poverty change on account of the three broad effects comprising growth of total income, change in inequality, and change in total population are shown as part of the within‐group effect while change in population shares, which is different from change in total population, is a between‐group effect. We provide empirical illustrations with data from India.     

扶贫的机制设计与制度选择

在近20年的扶贫实践中,制度因素在我国扶贫的历史进程中发挥了重要作用。随着我国扶贫实践的快速发展,特别是贫困人口总量的不断减少,我国贫困问题的特征也发生了一些变化,这些变化给我国的扶贫工作带来了一些新的挑战和问题。扶贫工作之所以问题重重,主要是因为制度短缺。因此,应加强扶贫制度建设,相应地调整我国的扶贫战略、制度设计和政策,农村扶贫有待制度创新。     

Middle Class,Government Effectiveness and Poverty in the EU: A Dynamic Multilevel Analysis

Using the 2008-2011 EU-Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data, we implement a dynamic three-level model to analyze poverty persistence in 26 EU countries. We isolate true state dependence phenomena by disentangling the effects of observed and unobserved heterogeneity at country level and employ cofactors not previously considered by the literature. Estimates show that unobserved heterogeneity across individuals remains large, even after explicitly controlling for the observable components of individual characteristics. The initial value of poverty has large effects on current poverty status but this effect is not uniform across countries. The risk of poverty is negatively related to the size of the structural middle class and to the level of structural social expenditure but it increases when lagged total public expenditure increases (with respect to the structural value). There is strong evidence of true state dependence.     

我国农户贫困动态演变影响因素分析——基于CHNS家庭微观数据的研究

动态贫困研究是从中长期考察家庭贫困状态,关注家庭贫困状态的脆弱性与发展演变。采用CHNS家庭微观数据,通过对我国农户动态贫困的研究发现:男性户主、年轻户主、人口规模较大、低人力资本、人均使用耕地面积越多的家庭,在一段时间内多次贫困发生概率较大;此外,我国农户动态贫困还表现出较强的区位特性。减贫政策应该从以下四方面改进:一是细分农村贫困人口类型,实施有针对性的扶贫政策;二是建立贫困家庭教育技能补贴制度;三是帮扶贫困地区开展非农或高附加值农业经济;四是建立有区域特征的扶贫开发机制。     

“When Life Gives You Lemons”: Using Cross-Sectional Surveys to Identify Chronic Poverty in the Absence of Panel Data

At the core of poverty eradication is the need to eliminate that poverty that is persistent over time (chronic poverty). Unfortunately, traditional approaches to identifying chronic poverty require longitudinal data that is rarely available. In its absence, this paper proposes an alternative approach that only requires 1 year of cross-sectional data on monetary and non-monetary poverty. It puts forth two conjectures and contends that the combined profile of a household as both income poor and multidimensionally poor can be used as a proxy of that household being chronically income poor. To explore the viability of this approach, we use a probit model and longitudinal data for three Latin American countries to estimate households’ probabilities of remaining in income poverty based on their past income and multidimensional poverty statuses. We find empirical support for the approach that is significant, consistent across countries, and robust to various controls and periods of analysis.     

Urban–rural gap and poverty traps in China: A prefecture level analysis

Urban–rural gap and regional inequality are long-standing problems in China and result in considerable number of studies. This article examines the dynamic behaviours of incomes for both urban and rural areas with a prefectural data set. The analysis is conducted by using a distribution dynamics approach, which have advantages in examination on persistence, polarization and convergence clubs. The results show that persistence and immobility are the dominant characteristics in the income distribution dynamics. The prefectural urban and rural areas converge into their own steady states differentiated in income levels. This pattern of urban–rural gap also exists in three regional groups, namely the eastern, central and western regions. Examination on the dynamics of the poorest areas shows that geographical poverty traps exist in both urban and rural prefectural areas. Our results indicate that more policy interventions are required to narrow down the urban–rural gap and to eliminate the poverty traps in China.