Order Effects in Batteries of Questions

Batteries of questions with identical response items are commonly used in survey research. This paper suggests that question order has the potential to cause systematic positive or negative bias on responses to all questions in a battery. Whilst question order effects have been studied for many decades, almost no attention has been given to this topic. The primary aim is to draw attention to this effect, to demonstrate its possible magnitude, and to discuss a range of mechanisms through which it might occur. These include satisficing, anchoring and cooperativeness. The effect seems apparent in the results of a recent survey. This was a survey of Emergency Department patients presenting to Wollongong Hospital (Australia) with apparently less urgent conditions in 2004. Two samples were taken. Question order was fixed in the first sample (n = 104; response rate RR2 = 94%), but randomised in the second sample (n = 46; response rate RR2 = 96%). Respondents were asked to indicate whether each of 18 reasons for presenting to the ED was a ‘very important reason’ a ‘moderately important reason’ or ‘not a reason’ The mean number of very important reasons selected was 56% higher in the first sample as compared to the second sample.     

Deterrence versus intrinsic motivation: Experimental evidence on the determinants of corruptibility

This paper reports on an experiment of corruption that was conducted in two treatments: one with the possibility of detection and one without. It turns out that monitoring reduces corruption through deterrence; at the same time, it destroys the intrinsic motivation for honesty. Thus the net effect on overall corruption is a priori undetermined. We show that the salary level has an influence on corruption through increased opportunity costs of corruption, but fail to find evidence for a ‘payment satisfaction’ effect. Interesting policy conclusions emerge. RID="*" ID="*" Acknowledgments: We are indebted to Johann Graf Lambsdorff for calling our attention to Fujimori's gender policy and to Ernst Fehr, Bruno Frey, Alireza Jay Naghavi, and two anonymous referees for valuable comments.     

Sounding the alarm: Impact of political instability on growth and fiscal health of the Indian economy

A noticeable change evident in the Indian political scenario since the eighties has been a sharp rise in the frequency with which governments have been ousted out of power. This augurs well for Indian democracy as it reflects a ‘political awakening’. Such changes in government, after an election reflect ‘orderly’: transfer of power and are inherent to the democratic form of governance. However, a close scrutiny of the political scenario at the state government level shows that there have been very frequent changes in government between elections. A high frequency of changes in government could be expected to result in frequent reversals or modifications in policy decisions and have a destabilizing effect on the economy. The present study is an empirical exercise undertaken at the level of state governments. It makes a first attempt to examine the impact of political instability on growth and on the fiscal health of the Indian economy. Received: September 25, 2000/Accepted: January 11, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" Sincere thanks to Professors Ajit Karnik and Abhay Pethe for their comments and suggestions. I would also like to thank the two anonymous referees for their insightful comments and suggestions, which have been of great help. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Contingent payments in selection contests

The early literature on research contests stressed the advantages of a fixed prize in inspiring R&D effort. More recently the focus has moved towards endogenizing the rewards to research activity in these tournament settings, since this can induce extra effort or enhance the surplus of the buyer. We focus on a research contest as a means of selecting a partner for an R&D enterprise, in an informational setting in which the established providers of R&D services know more about each others’ relative capabilities than does the buyer/sponsor. An alternative use of our model is in choosing between prospective patentees where the Patent Trading Office has less information on the patents than the competitors. This asymmetry creates a source of inefficiency if a rank order contest is used as a selection device; we show how the contest can be modified to improve selection efficiency, while maintaining its simplicity (as only ordinal information is required). The modification that we suggest involves endogenizing the prizes that are awarded contingent upon whether a contestant wins or loses the contest. Furthermore, the payment system and the selection mechanism are detail-free. This paper is part of the project “The Knowledge-Based Society” sponsored by the Research Council of Norway (project 172603/V10).     

The cost of Corporate Social Responsibility: the case of the Community Reinvestment Act

A Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) cost minimization model is employed to estimate the cost to thrift institutions of achieving a rating of ‘outstanding’ under the anti-redlining Community Reinvestment Act, which is viewed as an act of voluntary Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). There is no difference in overall cost efficiency between ‘outstanding’ and minimally compliant ‘satisfactory’ thrifts. However, the sources of cost inefficiency do differ, and an ‘outstanding’ rating involves annual extra cost of $6.547 million or, 1.2% of total costs. This added cost is the shadow price of CSR since it is not an explicit output or input in the DEA cost model. Before and after-tax rates of return are the same for the ‘outstanding’ and ‘satisfactory’ thrifts, which implies a recoupment of the extra cost. The findings are consistent with CSR as a management choice based on balancing marginal cost and marginal revenue. An incidental finding is that larger thrifts are less efficient.

Evaluating the Validity of Self-Reported Deviant Behavior Using Vignette Analyses

In this paper, the validity of vignette analyses of various forms of deviant behavior in the presence of opportunities is analyzed on the basis of ideas derived from cognitive psychology. Abelson’s Script Theory together with insights into human memory of visual and verbal information, allow the assumption that vignette analyses using visual stimuli are valid measures of deviant behavior in particular. The study includes an empirical examination of these ideas (n = 450). Nonparticipant observations and vignette analyses with visual and verbal material were carried out with regard to three forms of deviant behavior occurring in the presence of opportunities presenting themselves in everyday life. Observed and self-reported frequencies of deviant behavior or deviant intentions were counted and cross-tabulated. Log-linear analyses with dummy coding using observation data as reference category were run. Data analyses yielded the result that frequencies of deviant behavior were related to the techniques of data collection under consideration. Especially vignette analyses of the return of ‘lost letters’ that use both visual and verbal stimuli overestimate ‘actual’ (i.e. observed) return rates. This result is discussed with regard to the underlying methodological assumptions as well as its implications.     

Tullock and Hirshleifer: a meeting of the minds

We introduce the serial contest by building on the desirable properties of two prominent contest games. This family of contest games relies both on relative efforts (as Tullock’s proposal) and on absolute effort differences (as difference-form contests). An additional desirable feature is that the serial contest is homogeneous of degree zero in contestants’ efforts. The family is characterized by a parameter representing how sensitive the outcome is to contestants’ efforts. It encompasses as polar cases the (fair) lottery and the (deterministic) all-pay auction. Equilibria have a close relationship to those of the (deterministic) all-pay auction and important properties of the latter hold for the serial contest, too.      

The generalized Stackelberg equilibrium of the all-pay auction with complete information

We characterize the equilibrium of the all-pay auction with general convex cost of effort and sequential effort choices. We consider a set of n players who are arbitrarily partitioned into a group of players who choose their efforts ‘early’ and a group of players who choose ‘late’. Only the player with the lowest cost of effort has a positive payoff in any equilibrium. This payoff depends on his own timing vis-a-vis the timing of others. We also show that the choice of timing can be endogenized, in which case the strongest player typically chooses ‘late’, whereas all other players are indifferent with respect to their choice of timing. In the most prominent equilibrium the player with the lowest cost of effort wins the auction at zero aggregate cost. We thank Dan Kovenock and Luis C. Corchón for discussion and helpful comments. The usual caveat applies. Wolfgang Leininger likes to express his gratitude to Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB) for its generous hospitality and financial support.     

Equally important criteria and demanding aggregation

Within the class of weighted averages of ordered measurements on criteria of ‘equal importance’, we discuss aggregators that help assess to what extent ‘most’ criteria are satisfied, or a ‘good performance across the board’ is attained. All aggregators discussed are compromises between the simple mean and the very demanding minimum score. The weights of the aggregators are described in terms of the convex polytopes as induced by the characteristics of the aggregators, such as concavity. We take the barycentres of the polytopes as representative weights.     

A note on generalized wald’s method

Let {v _n(θ)} be a sequence of statistics such that whenθ =θ ₀,v _n(θ ₀) N _p(0,Σ), whereΣ is of rankp andθ εR ^d. Suppose that underθ =θ ₀, {Σ _n} is a sequence of consistent estimators ofΣ. Wald (1943) shows thatv _n ^T (θ ₀)Σ _n ⁻¹ v _n(θ ₀) x ²(p). It often happens thatv _n(θ ₀) N _p(0,Σ) holds butΣ is singular. Moore (1977) states that under certain assumptionsv _n ^T (θ ₀)Σ _n ⁻ v _n(θ ₀) x ²(k), wherek = rank (Σ) andΣ _n ⁻ is a generalized inverse ofΣ _n. However, Moore’s result as stated is incorrect. It needs the additional assumption that rank (Σ _n) =k forn sufficiently large. In this article, we show that Moore’s result (as corrected) holds under somewhat different, but easier to verify, assumptions. Research partly supported by the U.S. Army Research Office through the Mathematical Sciences Institute at Cornell University.     

Does Trade Liberalization Cause a Long Run Economic Growth in Turkey

Based on ‘endogenous’ growth theory, the paper examines the effect of trade liberalization on long-run income per capita and economic growth in Turkey. Although the presumption must be that free trade has a beneficial effect on long run growth, counter examples can also be found. This controversy increases the importance of empirical work in this area. Using the most recent data we employ multivariate cointegration analysis to test the long run relationship among the variables in hand. In a multivariate context, the effect of determinants such as increasing returns to scale, investment in human and physical capital are also included in both theoretical and empirical works. Our causality evidence between the long run growth and a number of indicators of trade liberalizations confirms the predictions of the ‘new growth theory’. However, the overall effect of the possible breaks and/or policy change and unsustainability in the 1990s looks contradictory and deserves further investigation.     

Reflections on PATCO’s Legacy: Labor’s Strategic Challenges Persist

The 1981 PATCO strike stands out as a symbol of union decline. The penchant to stigmatize PATCO detracts from important aspects of the union’s unorthodox strategy. Preparations for 1981 negotiations were coordinated by rank-and-file activists who referred to themselves as ‘choir boys’. An extensive mobilization network cultivated by the ‘choir boys’ contributed to cohesiveness and in effect democratized PATCO. The union’s effectiveness in building internal solidarity was its most notable accomplishment. Twenty-first-century labor-movement revitalization will require not only strong, creative leadership but also rank-and-file mobilization in the mold of PATCO’s ‘choir boy’ system. It is this type of grassroots activism that has the potential to promote an internal culture of militant action which can serve as the foundation for union growth.

Response of double-auction markets to instantaneous Selling�CBuying signals with stochastic Bid�CAsk spread

Statistical properties of order-driven double-auction markets with Bid–Ask spread are investigated through the dynamical quantities such as response function. We first attempt to utilize the so-called Madhavan–Richardson–Roomans model (MRR for short) to simulate the stochastic process of the price-change in empirical data sets (say, EUR/JPY or USD/JPY exchange rates) in which the Bid–Ask spread fluctuates in time. We find that the MRR theory apparently fails to simulate so much as the qualitative behaviour (‘non-monotonic’ behaviour) of the response function R(l) (l denotes the difference of times at which the response function is evaluated) calculated from the data. Especially, we confirm that the stochastic nature of the Bid–Ask spread causes apparent deviations from a linear relationship between the R(l) and the auto-correlation function C(l), namely, R(l) μ -C(l){R(l) \propto -C(l)}. To make the microscopic model of double-auction markets having stochastic Bid–Ask spread, we use the minority game with a finite market history length and find numerically that appropriate extension of the game shows quite similar behaviour of the response function to the empirical evidence. We also reveal that the minority game modeling with the adaptive (‘annealed’) look-up table reproduces the non-linear relationship R(l) μ -f(C(l)){R(l) \propto -f(C(l))} (f(x) stands for a non-linear function leading to ‘λ-shapes’) more effectively than the fixed (‘quenched’) look-up table does.     

Attitudes Toward Surveys, Attitude Accessibility and the Effect on Respondents’ Susceptibility to Nonresponse

This paper analyzes whether respondents’ attitudes toward surveys explain their susceptibility to item nonresponse. In contrast to previous studies, the decision to refuse to provide income information, not to answer other questions and the probability of ‘don’t know’ responses is tested separately. Furthermore, the interviewers’ overall judgments of response willingness was included as well. Respondents with a positive and cognitively accessible attitude toward surveys were expected to adopt a cooperative orientation and were thus deemed more likely to answer difficult as well as sensitive questions. Attitudes were measured with a 16-item instrument and the response latencies were used as an indicator for attitude accessibility. We found that respondents with more favorable evaluations of surveys had lower values on all kinds of nonresponse indicators. Except for the strong effect on the prevalence of ‘don’t knows’, survey attitudes were increasingly more predictive for all other aspects of nonresponse when these attitude answers were faster and thus cognitively more accessible. This accessibility, and thus how relevant survey attitudes are for nonresponse, was found to increase with the subjects’ exposure to surveys in the past.     

Locally minimax test of independence in elliptically symmetrical distributions with additional observations

Summary LetX=(X _ij )=(X ₁, ...,X _n )’,X’ _i =(X _i1, ...,X _ip )’,i=1,2, ...,n be a matrix having a multivariate elliptical distribution depending on a convex functionq with parameters, 0,σ. Let ϱ²=ϱ ₂ ^-2 be the squared multiple correlation coefficient between the first and the remainingp ₂+p ₃=p−1 components of eachX _i . We have considered here the problem of testingH ₀:ϱ²=0 against the alternativesH ₁:ϱ ₁ ^-2 =0, ϱ ₂ ^-2 >0 on the basis ofX andn ₁ additional observationsY ₁ (n ₁×1) on the first component,n ₂ observationsY ₂(n ₂×p ₂) on the followingp ₂ components andn ₃ additional observationsY ₃(n ₃×p ₃) on the lastp ₃ components and we have derived here the locally minimax test ofH ₀ againstH ₁ when ϱ ₂ ^-2 →0 for a givenq. This test, in general, depends on the choice ofq of the familyQ of elliptically symmetrical distributions and it is not optimality robust forQ.     

A theory of rent seeking with informational foundations

I develop a model of rent seeking with informational foundations and an arbitrary number of rent seekers, and I compare the results with Tullock’s (1980) classic model where the influence activities are “black-boxed.” Given the microfoundations, the welfare consequences of rent seeking can be studied. In particular, I show that competition among rent seekers can be socially beneficial, since the additional information that the decision maker gets access to makes the increase in rent-seeking expenditures worthwhile. However, the analysis also highlights a logic that, under natural parameter assumptions, makes the rent seekers spend more resources on rent seeking than is in society’s interest, which is consistent with the spirit of the rent-seeking literature.      

Measuring opinion distributions

In this study it will be argued that the perceived distribution of opinions among others is important for opinion research. Three different ways of measuring the perception of opinion distributions in survey research are compared: (a) by means of a questionwhat most people think about an issue, (b) by means of a questionhow many people are perceived to agree with an issue-statement, (c) by means of ‘line-production-boxes’, a special version ofmagnitude estimation. The results indicate that ‘line-production-boxes’ can improve data quality, but have also some drawbacks which will have to be dealt with. ‘Line-production-boxes’ give a wealth of information about individual differences in the forms of perceived opinion distributions. Although the normal distribution is used often, many other distribution forms are also used. The method of ‘line-production-boxes’ is compared with the method of estimating percentage points. Although high correlations suggest a good concurrent validity, some systematic differences do exist. New research directions are suggested.     

On characterizing discrete distributions via conditional expectations of weak record values

Let (W _n ,n ≥ 0) denote the sequence of weak records from a distribution with support S = { α₀,α₁,...,α _N }. In this paper, we consider regression functions of the form ψ _n (x) = E(h(W _n ) |W _n+1 = x), where h(·) is some strictly increasing function. We show that a single function ψ _n (·) determines F uniquely up to F(α₀). Then we derive an inversion formula which enables us to obtain F from knowledge of ψ _n (·), ψ _n-1(·), h(·) and F(α₀).     

Queues with batch poisson arrivals and hyper-exponential service time distribution

Summary We consider in this paper the transient behaviour of the queuing system in which (i) the input, following a Poisson distribution, is in batches of variable numbers; (ii) queue discipline is ‘first come first served’, it being assumed that the batches are pre-ordered for service purposes; and (iii) service time distribution is hyper-exponential withn branches. The Laplace transform of the system size distribution is determined by applying the method of generating functions, introduced in queuing theory byBailey [1]. However, assuming steady state conditions to obtain, the problem is completely solved and it is shown that by suitably defining the traffic intensity factor,ϱ, the value,p ₀, of the probability of no delay, remains the same in this case of batch arrivals also as in the case of single arrivals. The Laplace transform of the waiting time distribution is also calculated in steady state case from which the mean waiting time may be calculated. Some of the known results are derived as particular cases.     

Minimax estimation under convex loss when the parameter interval is bounded

In the present paper families of truncated distributions with a Lebesgue density forx=(x ₁,...,x _n ) ε ℝ ⁿ are considered, wheref ₀:ℝ → (0, ∞) is a known continuous function andC _n (ϑ) denotes a normalization constant. The unknown truncation parameterϑ which is assumed to belong to a bounded parameter intervalΘ=[0,d] is to be estimated under a convex loss function. It is studied whether a two point prior and a corresponding Bayes estimator form a saddle point when the parameter interval is sufficiently small.