Option trading: Information or differences of opinion?

This paper investigates the motive of option trading. We show that option trading is mostly driven by differences of opinion, a finding different from the current literature that attempts to attribute option trading to information asymmetry. Our conclusion is based on three pieces of empirical evidence. First, option trading around earnings announcements is speculative in nature and mostly dominated by small, retail investors. Second, around earnings announcements, the pre-announcement abnormal turnovers of options seem to predict the post-announcement abnormal stock returns. However, once we control for the pre-announcement stock returns, the predictability completely disappears, implying that option traders simply take cues from the stock market and turn around to speculate in the options market. Third, cross-section and time-series regressions reveal that option trading is also significantly explained by differences of opinion. While informed trading is present in stocks, it is not detected in options.     

Forecasting Emerging Market Exchange Rates from Foreign Equity Options

The use of derivatives to infer future exchange rates has long been a subject of interest in the international finance literature. With the recent currency crises in Mexico, Southeast Asia, and Brazil, work on exchange rate expectations in emerging markets is of particular interest. For some emerging markets, foreign equity options are the only liquid exchange‐traded derivatives with currency information embedded in their prices. Given that emerging markets sometimes undergo currency realignment with discrete jumps in their exchange rate, estimation of risk‐neutral probability density functions from foreign equity option data provides valuable evidence concerning market expectations. To illustrate the use of foreign equity options in estimating market beliefs, we consider Telmex options around the 1994 peso devaluation and find evidence that markets anticipated the change in the Mexican government's foreign exchange policy.     

Employee sentiment and stock option compensation

The use of equity-based compensation for rank-and-file employees is a puzzle. We analyze whether the popularity of option compensation may be driven by employee optimism, and show that optimism by itself is insufficient to make option compensation optimal. The crucial insight is that firms compete with financial markets as suppliers of equity to employees and that employees’ access to the equity market restricts firms’ ability to profit from employee optimism. Firms must be able to extract some of the implied rents even though employees can purchase company equity in the financial markets. Such rent extraction becomes feasible if employees prefer the stock options offered by firms to the equity offered by the market, or if the traded equity is overvalued. We provide empirical evidence that firms use broad-based option compensation when boundedly rational employees are likely to be excessively optimistic about company stock, and when employees are likely to strictly prefer options over stock.     

Bounds and prices of currency cross-rate options

This paper derives the pricing bounds of a currency cross-rate option using the option prices of two related dollar rates via a copula theory and presents the analytical properties of the bounds under the Gaussian framework. Our option pricing bounds are useful, because (1) they are general in the sense that they do not rely on the distribution assumptions of the state variables or on the selection of the copula function; (2) they are portfolios of the dollar-rate options and hence are potential hedging instruments for cross-rate options; and (3) they can be applied to generate bounds on deltas. The empirical tests suggest that there are persistent and stable relationships between the market prices and the estimated bounds of the cross-rate options and that our option pricing bounds (obtained from the market prices of options on two dollar rates) and the historical correlation of two dollar rates are highly informative for explaining the prices of the cross-rate options. Moreover, the empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the analytical properties under the Gaussian framework and are robust in various aspects.     

SECONDARY MORTGAGE MARKET PURCHASE COMMITMENT YIELDS

We provide empirical evidence that quoted secondary market mortgage yields conform to the predictions of option theory. We compare Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac origination yields offered in the secondary market from 1985 to 2003 with the predictions of a two‐state binomial mortgage option valuation model. Our two‐state approach considers a mean‐reverting interest rate process as well as a stochastic housing price. Using predictions from option simulations, we find strong links between market practice and mortgage option prepayment and default factors over time. We also find cross‐sectional differences that are consistent with the institutional structure of the markets.     

Pricing options on scenario trees

We examine valuation procedures that can be applied to incorporate options in scenario-based portfolio optimization models. Stochastic programming models use discrete scenarios to represent the stochastic evolution of asset prices. At issue is the adoption of suitable procedures to price options on the basis of the postulated discrete distributions of asset prices so as to ensure internally consistent portfolio optimization models. We adapt and implement two methods to price European options in accordance with discrete distributions represented by scenario trees and assess their performance with numerical tests. We consider features of option prices that are observed in practice. We find that asymmetries and/or leptokurtic features in the distribution of the underlying materially affect option prices; we quantify the impact of higher moments (skewness and excess kurtosis) on option prices. We demonstrate through empirical tests using market prices of the S&P500 stock index and options on the index that the proposed procedures consistently approximate the observed prices of options under different market regimes, especially for deep out-of-the-money options.     

Information content of options trading volume for future volatility: Evidence from the Taiwan options market

This study follows the approach of Ni et al. [Ni, S.X., Pan, J., Poteshman, A.M., 2008. Volatility information trading in the option market. Journal of Finance 63, 1059–1091] – based upon the vega-weighted net demand for volatility – to determine whether volatility information exists within the Taiwan options market. Our empirical results show that foreign institutional investors possess the strongest and most direct volatility information, which is realized by the delta-neutral options/futures trades. In addition, a few individual investors (less than 1% of individuals’ trades) might be informed and realize their volatility information using the strangle strategy. Surprisingly, we find no evidence to support the predictive ability of the volatility demand from straddle trades, despite the widespread acknowledgement that such trades are sensitive to volatility.     

The efficacy of regulatory intervention: Evidence from the distribution of informed option trading

A substantive body of equity-market academic research documents an extensive range of costs arising from the SEC’s October 2000 adoption of strictures on selective disclosure and insider trading; suggesting an unusual outcome, specifically, an increase in informed trading. We investigate the efficacy of the SEC’s regulations by examining informed trading in an attractive setting for exploiting private information; the options market. Using data on the S&P 1500 industrial firms, our analysis indicates that about 38% of firms exhibited symptoms of informed option trading prior to regulatory intervention. After regulatory intervention, we observe that only 19% of firms show symptoms of informed trading. In additional testing of ADR firms – explicitly exempt from complying with Reg FD, we find no evidence of a change in informed option trading from pre- to post-regulation; suggesting that the SEC’s strictures on US firms led a to a significant reduction in informed option trading. Notably, our proxies for large shareholder and financial analyst access are associated with the largest decreases in informed option trading. In developing a unique measure of informed trading based on option market data, we provide evidence on the efficacy of security regulation in limiting informed trading.     

Option trading and individual investor performance

This paper examines the impact of option trading on individual investor performance. The results show that most investors incur substantial losses on their option investments, which are much larger than the losses from equity trading. We attribute the detrimental impact of option trading on investor performance to poor market timing that results from overreaction to past stock market returns. High trading costs further contribute to the poor returns on option investments. Gambling and entertainment appear to be the most important motivations for trading options while hedging motives only play a minor role. We also provide strong evidence of performance persistence among option traders.     

Options, short-sale constraints and market efficiency: A new perspective

This paper undertakes a new investigation of the potential for options to mitigate short-sale constraints. I find that option introduction alleviates 79% of the price adjustment efficiency disparity between short-sale constrained and unconstrained stocks in relation to negative news. No significant improvement in adjustment efficiency is found in response to positive information. These results are robust to controls for endogeneity biases associated with the option introduction selection process. Further, I find evidence that post-option improvement in efficiency is similar in relation to private and public information. This suggests that short-sale constraint effects stem, at least in part, from an irrational, optimism bias or another behavioral source as suggested theoretically by Miller (1977). Collectively, these results suggest that options act as an effective substitute to short-sales, significantly contributing to the informational efficiency of the market.     

Do option markets substitute for stock markets? Evidence from trading on anticipated tender offer announcements

Using a sample of cash tender offers occurring between 1993 and 2002, we find evidence that the options market has become the preferred venue for traders attempting to profit on anticipated announcements. Options offer advantages relative to stocks. Traders gain leverage by trading in options and multiple options contracts on an individual stock. The results of our study indicate that a substitution effect does exist. Abnormal volume in the option market replaces abnormal volume in the stock market prior to cash tender offer announcements, and this abnormal option volume precedes abnormal stock volume for targets with or without traded options.     

Is there price discovery in equity options?

We use tick-by-tick quote data for 39 liquid US stocks and options on them, and we focus on events when the two markets disagree about the stock price in the sense that the option-implied stock price obtained from the put-call parity relation is inconsistent with the actual stock price. Option market quotes adjust to eliminate the disagreement, while the stock market quotes behave normally, as if there were no disagreement. The disagreement events are typically precipitated by stock price movements and display signed option volume in the direction that tends to eliminate the disagreements. These results show that option price quotes do not contain economically significant information about future stock prices beyond what is already reflected in current stock prices, i.e., no economically significant price discovery occurs in the option market. We also find no option market price discovery using a much larger sample of disagreement events based on a weaker definition of a disagreement, which verifies that the findings for the primary sample are not due to unusual or unrepresentative market behavior during the put-call parity violations.     

How Does Local Economy Affect Commercial Property Performance?

The real estate literature recognizes the real option to invest in capital expenditures (CAPEX) or sell a property but treats these options as independent. We show that these real options are interconnected. We provide empirical evidence that, consistent with the real option framework, CAPEX increases in income growth expectations but declines in their volatility; that CAPEX are partially capitalized into property market values; and that CAPEX significantly reduce the subsequent likelihood of sale. We also present evidence that, controlling for market timing, past property performance influences CAPEX but not disposition choices, consistent with a value-add investment strategy.

     

Identifying volatility risk premia from fixed income Asian options

Fixed income options are frequently adopted by companies to hedge interest rate risk. Their payoff dependence on the cumulative short-term rate makes them particularly informative about interest rate volatility risk. Based on a joint dataset of bonds and Asian interest rate options, we study the interrelations between bond and volatility risk premia in a major emerging fixed income market. We propose a dynamic term structure model that generates an incomplete market compatible with a preliminary empirical analysis of the dataset. Approximation formulas for at-the-money Asian option prices avoid the use of computationally intensive Fourier transform methods, allowing for an efficient implementation of the model. The model generates a bond risk premium strongly correlated with a widely accepted emerging market benchmark index (EMBI-Global), and a negative volatility risk premium, consistent with the use of Asian options as insurance in this market.     

Short sales and speed of price adjustment: Evidence from the Hong Kong stock market

We present empirical evidence that short sales contribute to market efficiency by increasing the speed of price adjustment to not only private/public firm-specific information but also market-wide information. Shortable stocks are characterized by weaker trade continuity and stronger quote reversals. They adjust faster to new information than non-shortable counterparts. These findings remain robust even in an “up” market condition in which short sales are not binding. The amount of information incorporated in each trade is also significantly higher for shortable than non-shortable stocks in both “up” and “down” market conditions. After controlling for firm size, trading volume, liquidity, price and option trading, short sales stand out as one of the significant factors that speed up the price adjustment.     

Do informed option investors predict stock returns? Evidence from the Taiwan stock exchange

In this paper, we set out to investigate the information content of options trading using a unique dataset to examine the predictive power of the put and call positions of different types of traders in the TAIEX option market. We find that options volume, as a whole, carries no information on TAIEX spot index changes. On the other hand, however, although foreign institutional investors do not engage in much trading, there is strong evidence to show that the trading in which they do engage has significant predictive power on the underlying asset returns. We also find that foreign institutional investors have greater predictive power with regard to in near-the-money and middle-horizon options.     

Market Making in the Options Markets and the Costs of Discrete Hedge Rebalancing

In this paper we provide empirical evidence consistent with the hypothesis that options market makers face risks in managing inventory that are unique to the options markets. In particular, we show that risks associated with the inability to rebalance an option position continuously and uncertainty about the return volatility of the underlying stock each account for a statistically and economically significant proportion of the bid-ask spreads quoted for a sample of Chicago Board Options Exchange options.     

Derivatives traders’ reaction to mispricing in the underlying equity

This article examines trading behavior in the options market conditioned on mispricing in the underlying stock. We investigate the price equilibrium between the observed equity asset and the options-implied synthetic share as well as the relative divergence between the two prices. We find a consistently positive relation between the level of stock mispricing and violations of the upper-boundary condition using derivatives, along with an increase in price divergence. To control for the effect of shorting limitations on mispricing, we further examine prices during the short-sale ban in 2008. The results hold and in many instances are more significant during the ban period. Given the persistent disequilibria between the synthetic and observed stock prices, we argue the results are evidence of informed trading in the derivatives market.     

Generative Bayesian neural network model for risk-neutral pricing of American index options

Financial models with stochastic volatility or jumps play a critical role as alternative option pricing models for the classical Black–Scholes model, which have the ability to fit different market volatility structures. Recently, machine learning models have elicited considerable attention from researchers because of their improved prediction accuracy in pricing financial derivatives. We propose a generative Bayesian learning model that incorporates a prior reflecting a risk-neutral pricing structure to provide fair prices for the deep ITM and the deep OTM options that are rarely traded. We conduct a comprehensive empirical study to compare classical financial option models with machine learning models in terms of model estimation and prediction using S&P 100 American put options from 2003 to 2012. Results indicate that machine learning models demonstrate better prediction performance than the classical financial option models. Especially, we observe that the generative Bayesian neural network model demonstrates the best overall prediction performance.     

The Intraday Relation between NYSE and CBOE Prices

I extend the literature regarding price discovery across stock and option markets through an empirical model that allows information to flow through an error‐correction term and volatility. NYSE prices tend to lead CBOE prices by at least thirty minutes over the entire six‐year sample period. In addition, informed trading in the options market is revealed more strongly through persistence in volatility and the spillover of volatility to the stock market than it is through returns.