Risk-adjusted profitability and stability of Islamic and conventional banks: Does revenue diversification matter?

Revenue diversification in banking offers opportunities and threats. Recent academic research shows that disadvantages may outweigh advantages, in terms of both volatility of profitability and bank riskiness. Literature on this topic in emerging countries and in the field of Islamic finance is limited: our aim is to empirically test if revenue diversity affects Islamic banks differently than conventional institutions. We analyze the impact of income diversification on profitability and firm-risk of banks in selected OIC countries, in the period 2007–2016, using a comprehensive dataset of 47 Islamic and 154 conventional banks, through diverse measures and econometric approaches. We find that diversification provides lower rewards for Islamic banks than conventional banks, with effects that are stronger for accounting-based measures rather than market-based metrics. Shares of non-interest income positively contribute to profitability regardless of the business model, whereas income diversification shows a not significant effect on the risk-adjusted profitability of Islamic banks. Moreover, we do not find any relationship between income diversification and stability for both conventional and Islamic banks.     

Can Banks in Emerging Economies Benefit from Revenue Diversification?

This paper investigates the effect of revenue diversification on bank performance and risk. Using a panel dataset of 226 listed banks across 11 emerging economies and a new methodological approach, System Generalized Method of Moments estimators (System GMM), the results in this paper provide empirical evidence of the impact of the observed shift towards non-interest income generating activities on insolvency risk and bank performance. The core finding is that diversification across and within both interest and non-interest income generating activities decrease insolvency risk and enhance profitability. The results also show that these benefits are largest for banks with moderate risk exposures. By extension, these results have significant strategic implications for bank managers, regulators and supervisors who share a common interest in boosting bank performance and stability.     

非利息收入、收入多元化与银行绩效——基于中国银行业的动态面板GMM估计

基于我国2003-2016年商业银行数据,使用动态面板模型的 GMM估计,检验我国商业银行提高非利息收入占比,寻求收入多元化是否改善银行绩效.研究发现:非利息收入占比提高并不等同收入多元化程度提升,两者对商业银行绩效影响并不一致.商业银行多元化程度提升能够显著改善银行绩效,稳定银行收益,改善风险调整回报.但非利息收入占比提高则与银行绩效负相关.看似矛盾的结论实质是非利息收入的双刃属性导致的"直接敞口效应""多元化效应"和"冲销效应"综合作用的结果.从非利息收入构成来看,手续费和佣金净收入与银行绩效显著正相关,但其它非利息收入则与银行绩效指标负相关.     

Income diversification and risk: Does ownership matter? An empirical examination of Indian banks

We examine the impact of ownership on income diversification and risk for Indian banks over the period 2001–2009. We investigate both the determinants of non-interest income and the impact of diversification on various profitability and insolvency risk measures for public sector, private domestic, and foreign banks. We document that ownership does matter in the pursuit of non-interest income. Relative to private domestic banks, public sector banks earn significantly less fee-income, while foreign banks report higher fee income. Public sector banks with higher levels of governmental ownership are significantly less likely to pursue non-interest income sources. Fee-based income significantly reduces risk, measured by profitability variables, for public sector banks. Default risk is also reduced for these banks. From a regulatory perspective, it appears that diversification benefits India’s public sector banks. Our research has implications for the changes in the risk profile for banks in emerging banking markets pursuing non-interest revenue sources.     

Small European banks: Benefits from diversification?

Motivated by the liberalisation and harmonisation of financial systems in Europe, we investigate whether the observed shift into non-interest income activities improves performance of small European credit institutions. Using a sample of 755 small banks for the period 1997–2003, we find no direct diversification benefits within and across business lines and an inverse association between non-interest income and bank performance. Our findings are robust to a set of sensitivity analyses using alternative samples and controlling for the regulatory environment. Furthermore, the results provide circumstantial evidence for the presence of economies of scale. The absence of benefits of diversification confirms findings for other banking markets and suggests small European banks enter lines of business where they currently lack expertise and experience. These results have implications for bank supervisors, regulators and bank managers.     

收入多元化能降低银行风险吗?——基于中国银行业(2001-2010)的实证研究

本文以中国14家商业银行2001-2010年的面板数据为研究对象,考察银行收入多元化对经营风险的影响。研究结果表明,我国银行收入多元化与风险之间并不存在明显关联,其可能原因在于我国商业银行的净利息收入与非利息收入之间存在高度的相关性、考核机制以及会计计量口径的偏差。因而本文建议,我国商业银行应着力优化考核机制、加大非利息收入业务创新力度,而监管部门也应就会计计量标准及监管导向等问题做出妥善安排。     

Income Diversification and Bank Performance: Evidence from Italian Banks

Using annual data from Italian banks, we study the link between non-interest revenues and profitability. We find that income diversification increases risk-adjusted returns. Our results provide econometric evidence consistent with current studies on EU banks, but do not support findings on the U.S. experience. In our view, the differences depend primarily on the relative importance of local banks: we find that the relation is stronger at large banks. In addition, we find that there are limits to diversification gains as banks get larger. Small banks can make gains from increasing non-interest income, but only when they have very little non-interest income share to start with. The source of non-interest income is less important than its level.

Which banks are more risky? The impact of business models on bank stability

In this paper, we analyze the impact of business models on bank stability in 15 EU countries between 2002 and 2011. We represent banks’ business models by the share of non-interest income in total operating income and the share of non-deposit funding in total liabilities. In contrast to the literature, we include in our sample a large number of unlisted banks, which represent the majority of banks in the EU. We believe this to be important, since many unlisted banks typically have a more retail-oriented business model. We show that banks will be significantly more stable and profitable if they increase their share of non-interest income, indicating that substantial benefits are to be gained from income diversification. Such benefits are particularly large for savings and cooperative banks. Investment banks, in contrast, become significantly more risky. Diversifying into non-deposit funding has a different impact as well. While retail-oriented banks will be significantly less stable if they increase their share of non-deposit funding, investment banks will be significantly more stable. These findings indicate that it is important to enlarge the sample of banks and to include different types of banks with different business models in order to arrive at general conclusions about the effect of non-interest income and non-deposit funding on bank stability.     

Does non-interest income make banks more risky? Retail- versus investment-oriented banks

In this paper, we show that the impact of non-interest income on bank risk differs between retail- and investment-oriented banks. More specifically, while retail-oriented banks such as savings, cooperative and other banks that focus on lending and deposit-taking services become significantly more stable (in the sense of having a higher Z-score) if they increase their share of non-interest income, investment-oriented banks become significantly more risky. They do not only generate a higher share of their income from non-traditional activities, but also engage in significantly different activities from retail-oriented banks. This might limit the potential benefits to investment-oriented banks of diversifying into non-interest income. Overall, therefore, our paper implies that it is important to distinguish between retail- and investment-oriented banks when drawing general conclusions regarding the impact of non-interest income on bank risk.     

Bank business models and liquidity creation

Using a large panel of US bank holding companies from 2001 to 2015, this study investigates the association between functional diversification and bank liquidity creation. I document evidence of lower liquidity creation for higher diversification. The effect of moving into nontraditional activities on liquidity creation is more apparent with large banks and less pronounced with small banks. The impact of diversification on liquidity creation is less significant during the late stage of crisis and is more clearly observed in small and medium-sized banks. Low liquidity creation banks, leveraged by a higher share of non-interest income, are more likely to further decrease their liquidity creation. The study is of interest to regulators and policymakers who are concerned about bank business models.     

Bank income structure and risk: An empirical analysis of European banks

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between bank risk and product diversification in the changing structure of the European banking industry. Based on a broad set of European banks for the period 1996–2002, our study first shows that banks expanding into non-interest income activities present higher risk and higher insolvency risk than banks which mainly supply loans. However, considering size effects and splitting non-interest activities into both trading activities and commission and fee activities we show that the positive link with risk is mostly accurate for small banks and essentially driven by commission and fee activities. A higher share of trading activities is never associated with higher risk and for small banks it implies, in some cases, lower asset and default risks.     

Does the stock market value bank diversification?

This paper investigates whether or not functionally diversified banks have a comparative advantage in terms of long-term performance/risk profile compared to their specialized competitors. To that end, this study uses market-based measures of return potential and bank risk. We calculate the franchise value over time of European banks as a measure of their long-run performance potential. In addition, we measure risk as both the systematic and the idiosyncratic risk components derived from a bank stock return model. Finally, we analyze the return/risk trade-off implied in different functional diversification strategies using a panel data analysis over the period 1989–2004. A higher share of non-interest income in total income affects banks’ franchise values positively. Diversification of revenue streams from distinct financial activities increases the systematic risk of banks while the effect on the idiosyncratic risk component is non-linear and predominantly downward-sloping. These findings have conflicting implications for different stakeholders, such as investors, bank shareholders, bank managers and bank supervisors.     

What explains the lack of monetary policy influence on bank holding companies?

In this paper, we investigate how monetary policy innovations affect the equity returns of bank holding companies (BHCs). We also examine bank characteristics to determine what explains the cross-sectional and time-series variation in the returns' sensitivity. Similar to non-financial firms, we find that only unanticipated components affect bank equity returns; however, this effect is absent in the second half of our sample period. Smaller, less liquid banks have higher sensitivity; a higher ratio of time deposits to total deposits reduces this sensitivity. A higher ratio of non-interest income to total income also reduces this sensitivity, while capital-constrained banks have a higher sensitivity to monetary policy innovations. We argue that a higher dependence on non-interest income and the use of interest rate derivatives together may explain the disappearing influence of monetary policy on these BHCs.     

Performance of Canadian banks and oil price movements

We employ dynamic panel data models to examine the performance (profitability and asset quality) of a large sample of Canadian banks from 1996Q1 to 2018Q2. Profits, measured as return on assets (ROA), depend on bank factors (capital adequacy, loan loss provisions (LLP) and non-interest income), the slope of the yield curve, and several oil price measures. Our findings suggest that the persistence of profits is estimated to be around 0.40 and the direct impact of oil prices tends to be positive on profits. When oil interacts with non-interest income, there is a strong positive relationship. This can be interpreted as oil price increases leading to more banking transactions (derivatives, fees) and then higher profits. Our evidence also suggests that positive oil price changes increase the asset quality of Canadian banks by reducing the ratio of LLP.     

Back to the basics in banking? A micro-analysis of banking system stability

This paper analyzes the relationship between banks’ divergent strategies toward specialization and diversification of financial activities and their ability to withstand a banking sector crash. We first generate market-based measures of banks’ systemic risk exposures using extreme value analysis. Systemic banking risk is measured as the tail beta, which equals the probability of a sharp decline in a bank’s stock price conditional on a crash in a banking index. Subsequently, the impact of (the correlation between) interest income and the components of non-interest income on this risk measure is assessed. The heterogeneity in extreme bank risk is attributed to differences in the scope of non-traditional banking activities: non-interest generating activities increase banks’ tail beta. In addition, smaller banks and better-capitalized banks are better able to withstand extremely adverse conditions. These relationships are stronger during turbulent times compared to normal economic conditions. Overall, diversifying financial activities under one umbrella institution does not improve banking system stability, which may explain why financial conglomerates trade at a discount.     

基于CCR模型的中部地区城市商业银行效率研究——选取三套指标体系的比较分析

本文以中部地区八家城市商业银行、三家上市城市商业银行银行和四家国有银行为样本,运用DEA分析方法中的CCR模型,选取6个指标,对其中的存款和贷款指标投入产出范畴进行调整,形成三套对照指标体系组。DEA分析结果显示：在三类银行中比较发现,中部地区城商行效率改善明显,“吸储”和“放贷”能力较强,但是盈利能力较低。基于前述对比分析,提出中部地区城商行提高效率首先要提高盈利能力,而关键又要引进高素质人才和适当提高非利息收入比重。研究方法上,笔者建议要建立并完善“效率”概念体系,主张借助定量工具以推进银行效率的定性研究。     

Valuation of diversified banks: New evidence

This paper reconsiders the effect of diversification on bank valuation. Our objective is to provide new evidence based on a unified estimation framework that places particular emphasis on separating the effects of diversification (specialised banks vs. diversified banks) from those of bank type (investment banks vs. commercial banks). Consistent with prior studies, we find a significant diversification discount at the end of the 1990s. Our main finding is that it decreases over time and practically vanishes after the financial crisis. We do not find support for the hypothesis that the diversification effect is influenced by geographical or regulatory factors. The valuation impact of bank characteristics varies over time, particularly in the financial crisis, but this structural break does not explain the observed decrease of the diversification discount. We show that the pre-crisis discount is considerably smaller in a robust regression, which in part is driven by banks with a large share of non-interest income.     

The dark side of diversification: The case of US financial holding companies

Potential diversification benefits are one reason why US financial holding companies are offering a growing range of financial services. This paper examines whether the observed shift toward activities that generate fees, trading revenue, and other non-interest income has improved the performance of US financial holding companies (FHCs) from 1997 to 2002. We find evidence that diversification benefits exist between FHCs, but these gains are offset by the increased exposure to non-interest activities, which are much more volatile but not necessarily more profitable than interest-generating activities. Within FHCs, however, marginal increases in revenue diversification are not associated with better performance, while marginal increases in non-interest income are still associated with lower risk-adjusted profits. The key finding that diversification gains are more than offset by the costs of increased exposure to volatile activities represents the dark side of the search for diversification benefits and has implications for supervisors, managers, investors, and borrowers.     

中国银行业非利息收入与利息收入相关性研究

实现非利息收入和利息收入并重发展是中国商业银行经营战略转型的目标之一.在非利息收入快速发展的同时,关注非利息收入与利息收入之间的相关性,是实现缓解银行收入波动、加强银行稳健经营的重要前提.检测1990年至2006年之间中国14家商业银行非利息收入与利息收入之间的相关性的结果表明,中国银行业非利息收入与利息收入之间相关性基本为正,且不断增加.但其中大型国有银行的收入结构较股份制银行具有较好的熨平整体收入波动的效果.     

The anatomy of bank diversification

We use panel data from nine countries over the period 1996–2008 to test how revenue diversification affects bank value. Relying on a comprehensive framework for bank performance measurement, we find robust evidence against a conglomerate discount, unlike studies concerned with industrial firms. Rather, diversification increases bank profitability and, as a consequence also market valuations. This indirect performance effect does not depend on whether diversification was achieved through organic growth or through M&A activity. We further demonstrate that previous results in the literature on the impact of diversification on bank value presumably differ due to the way diversification is measured, and the negligence of the indirect value effect via bank profitability. Our evidence against a conglomerate discount in banking remains robust also during the sub-prime crisis.