The Friedman rule: Old and new

In overlapping generations models, money growth creates intergenerational wealth effects and leads to the breakdown of the Friedman rule; the rule can be restored via lump-sum tax and transfers that neutralize these wealth transfers. Additionally, and in contrast to money-in-the-utility-function models, the Friedman rule is not the unique first-best solution in cash-in-advance-constraint models of money: a continuum of combinations of money growth rates and consumption taxes implement the first-best allocation. This paper traces through the intellectual origins of the first (old) result, which was recently restated in Bhattacharya, et al. [2005. Monetary policy, fiscal policy, and the inflation tax: equivalence results. Macroeconomic Dynamics 7, 647-669.] and formally demonstrates the second (new) result.     

Wealth Distribution, Inflation Tax, and Societal Benefits of Illiquid Bonds

Illiquid nominal government bonds are shown to have two opposing effects on welfare. First, the relatively poor choose to top-up money balances for future consumption by purchasing nominal bonds at a discount. The wealth distribution becomes more centered with a smaller consumption deviation from the first best. Second, the higher inflation tax on monetary wealth to finance interest payments makes money less valuable, so that the quantity of output produced in exchange for money decreases. The trade-off between the welfare-enhancing effect on wealth distribution and the distortionary effect on output implies the socially optimal discount rate and liquidity.     

Wealth happens

The economic world is full of patterns, and one of the most controversial is the distribution of wealth. You might expect the balance between rich and poor to vary widely from country to country. But back in 1897, Vilfredo Pareto discovered a pattern of wealth distribution that appears to be universal. Whenever you double the amount of wealth within a country, the number of people in each successively higher wealth bracket falls by a constant factor. The factor varies among countries, but the pattern remains essentially the same. From a mathematical standpoint, Pareto's distribution has stubbornly defied explanation. But recently, researchers were able to replicate the curve by applying the principles of network organization. They began with two simple assumptions. First, wealth accumulates either by transfers from person to person or through investment returns, positive or negative. Second, rich people invest more money than poor people. Starting with a hypothetical group of 1,000 people of equal wealth and abilities, the model always produces Pareto's wealth distribution no matter how the links in the network are organized or how the balance between interpersonal transactions and investment returns are set. The model also indicates that the degree of wealth concentration can be influenced. Increasing the number of links in the network or the total amount of money flowing through an economy tends to decrease wealth disparities; increasing investment returns or volatility tends to increase it. Replete with public policy implications, the model is only one example of how network analysis can reshape our understanding of complex economic and social systems, which may have less to do with the behavior of individual members than with impersonal and seemingly insignificant forces.     

Changes in Interstate Banking Laws: The Impact on Shareholder Wealth

This study examines the impact on shareholder wealth of changes in interstate banking laws. The research demonstrates that changes in state statutes which allow interstate banking have a positive impact on the stock prices of regional banking organizations and a negative impact on the stock prices of money center banks. Interstate banking statutes initially exclude those states in which the money center banks are headquartered. The findings provide evidence that, by excluding money center banks from expansion across state lines, the competition from the regional banks may have an adverse competitive effect on the money center banks.     

Demand and supply functions for money in Canada: Some further evidence

The demand and supply functions for money in Canada are estimated in a simultaneous-equation model format in which the supply of money is considered endogenous. The results indicate that the important determinants of the demand for money are income, short-term interest rate and lagged real cash balance variables. Wealth is an unimportant explanatory variable in money demand thus rejecting the hypothesis that an increase in outside wealth increases the demand for money. The monetary base and cash reserve ratio are important explanatory variables in the money supply function and play a direct role in monetary control.     

Outside wealth,the demand for money and the crowding out effect

Policy simulations with most large macroeconometric models evidence little, if any, crowding out of private spending from debt financed increases in government expenditures. Examination of the structure of these models reveals that none allows for a wealth effect of debt finance on the demand for money, even though theoretical studies suggest that this wealth effect may cause significant crowding out. This paper provides empirical evidence that increases in government debt held by the public do increase the demand for money; therefore, the fiscal policy simulations of the large macroeconometric models may yield biased conclusions concerning the crowding out effect.     

Financial literacy and over-indebtedness in low-income households

Financial literacy can explain a significant proportion of wealth inequality. Among the key components of financial literacy are numeracy and money management skills. Our study examines the relative importance of these components in the determination of consumer debt and household net worth among credit union members in socially disadvantaged areas. The main finding from our analysis is that money management skills are important determinants of financial outcomes but that numeracy has almost no role to play. This result adds to a recent US-based behavioural finance literature on the role of attention and planning in consumer finance. Findings are found to be robust when the sample is reduced to only those who have a clear role in household financial decision-making and also when controlling for potential endogeneity. Our findings have policy implications in the UK and elsewhere as credit unions across the world are important players in national financial literacy strategies.     

从货币媒介商品交换角度洞察M0、M1，M2的变化

近几年来人们对货币供给指标给予了极大的关注，但是对货币供给量指标如何随商品交换而变化却鲜有研究。本文从货币媒介商品换角度对M0，M1，M2作了模拟性分析，旨在引起人们对社会财富的计量，商品流和货币流的对应性，以及货币政策中介指标的选择等问题作进一步思考。     

Behavioral Biases and Investment

We investigate the way investors react to prior gains/losses. We directly examine investor reactions to different definitions of gains and losses (i.e., overall wealth, paper gains and losses, and realized capital gains and losses) and investigate how gains and losses in one category of wealth (e.g., real estate) affect holdings in other categories (e.g., financial assets). We show that investors change their holdings of risky assets as a function of both financial and real estate gains. Prior gains increase risk-taking, while prior losses reduce it. To interpret our results, we consider and compare three alternative hypotheses of investor behavior: prospect theory, house money effect and standard utility theory with decreasing risk aversion. Our evidence fails to support loss aversion, pointing in the direction of the house money effect or standard utility theory. Investors consider wealth in its entirety, and risk-taking in financial markets is affected by gains/losses in overall wealth, financial wealth, and real estate wealth. We appreciate the helpful comments of: O. Bondarenko, F. De Jong, B. Dumas, H. Hau, P. Hillion, R. Jaganathan, M. Lettau, P.Maenhout, M. Huang, S. Mullanaithen, T. Odean, J. Peress, R. Shiller, P. Sodini, M. Suominen, A. Subrahmanyan, B. Swaminathan, R. Thaler, L. Tepla, P. Veronesi, M. Weber and the participants of the Summer Financial Markets Symposium at Gerzensee and the NBER Behavioral Finance Meeting, Fall 2002. We are grateful to Sven-Ivan Sundqvist for numerous helpful discussions and for providing us with the data. Financial support from Inquiry Europe is acknowledged. Andrei Simonov also acknowledges financial support from the Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Foundation. Any remaining errors are our own.     

金融双语

实际货币均衡量持有财富可以通过拥有实物资产,比如房屋、宝石、珍贵的油画等;或持有金融资产,比如股票、债券、共同基金股票、货币等。从这一点来看,货币只是财富的许多形式之一,家庭可以把所有的这些资产当作拥有的财富。对货币的需求实际上就是实际货币均衡量或用实际资产表     

Household response to a money rain: Real and portfolio balance effects reconsidered

In order for changes in the stock of money to lead to changes in economic activity, production and spending units such as households and firms must respond to changes in the money supply. With respect to wealth effects on households, the real balance effect on consumption is thought to be empirically small. This puts the burden on portfolio balance and labor supply effects. Labor supply is shown to decrease in response to an increase in the money supply, and depending on the extent of markets, portfolio balance effects may be nonexistent.     

The founder's dilemma

Why do people start businesses? For the money and the chance to control their own companies, certainly. But new research from Harvard Business School professor Wasserman shows that those goals are largely incompatible. The author's studies indicate that a founder who gives up more equity to attract cofounders, new hires, and investors builds a more valuable company than one who parts with less equity. More often than not, however, those superior returns come from replacing the founder with a professional CEO more experienced with the needs of a growing company. This fundamental tension requires founders to make "rich" versus "king" trade-offs to maximize either their wealth or their control over the company. Founders seeking to remain in control (as John Gabbert of the furniture retailer Room & Board has done) would do well to restrict themselves to businesses where large amounts of capital aren't required and where they already have the skills and contacts they need. They may also want to wait until late in their careers, after they have developed broader management skills, before setting up shop. Entrepreneurs who focus on wealth, such as Jim Triandiflou, who founded Ockham Technologies, can make the leap sooner because they won't mind taking money from investors or depending on executives to manage their ventures. Such founders will often bring in new CEOs themselves and be more likely to work with their boards to develop new, post-succession roles for themselves. Choosing between money and power allows entrepreneurs to come to grips with what success means to them. Founders who want to manage empires will not believe they are successes if they lose control, even if they end up rich. Conversely, founders who understand that their goal is to amass wealth will not view themselves as failures when they step down from the top job.     

Financial sophistication and the distribution of the welfare cost of inflation

The welfare cost of anticipated inflation is quantified in a calibrated model of the U.S. economy that exhibits tractable equilibrium dispersion in wealth and earnings. Inflation does not generate large losses in societal welfare, yet its impact varies noticeably across segments of society depending also on the financial sophistication of the economy. If money is the only asset, then inflation mostly hurts the wealthier and more productive agents, while those poorer and less productive may even benefit from inflation. The converse holds in a more sophisticated financial environment where agents can insure against consumption risk with assets other than money.     

VALUE FOR MONEY AUDITING - AN INTERNATIONAL REVIEW AND COMPARISON

This paper considers the application of value for money auditing in six countries. It is hoped thereby to instil a greater realization of what is done and what might be done. Approaches vary, they can be structured or highly unstructured. Some countries offer their auditors less restrictive mandates than others. To date, despite a wealth of international practical experience, no standard approach has been adopted which adequately covers all the varied aspects of value for money auditing.     

Contagion as a Wealth Effect

Financial contagion is described as a wealth effect in a continuous-time model with two risky assets and three types of traders. Noise traders trade randomly in one market. Long-term investors provide liquidity using a linear rule based on fundamentals. Convergence traders with logarithmic utility trade optimally in both markets. Asset price dynamics are endogenously determined (numerically) as functions of endogenous wealth and exogenous noise. When convergence traders lose money, they liquidate positions in both markets. This creates contagion, in that returns become more volatile and more correlated. Contagion reduces benefits from portfolio diversification and raises issues for risk management.     

Is backdating executive stock options always costly to shareholders?

We use a binomial model to investigate the cost to shareholders of backdating employee stock option (ESO) grants to award in‐the‐money rather than at‐the‐money options to a manager. When the expected return of the stock underlying an ESO is sufficiently close to the risk‐free rate, a backdating arrangement can always be structured to simultaneously improve shareholders’ wealth and the manager's utility. The smaller the manager's non‐option wealth, personal income tax rate or risk tolerance, the more likely a backdating arrangement can be welfare improving.     

非线性视角下的中国房地产财富效应的测度研究——基于1996～2008年省际面板数据的分析

基于Hansen面板门槛模型,利用中国1996～2008年间30个省（市、区）的相关数据,进行了房地产财富效应的非线性检验。研究发现,从房价增长率和收入增长率来看,房价上涨对消费的影响存在着显著的单门槛效应,呈现非线性的区制变化,尽管总体上房价上涨不利于促进消费,但是在不同类型的区制,对消费的抑制程度存在着明显的差异。建议针对中国不同类型的区域,平抑房价的方式应有所区别,以减少可能出现的市场风险。     

Financial market participation and the apparent instability of money demand

This paper uses multi-period cross-sectional data on financial assets holdings to shed light on the postwar stability of money demand in the United States. I first present a new measure of the evolution of financial market participation, by relating participation to the extensive margins of money demand, and quantify the influence of wealth on participation decisions. I then relate the increase in participation to the period of “missing money” and to the subsequent higher interest rate elasticity of monetary aggregates. The paper indicates that time-series estimations of money demand relationships are inherently flawed and tend to inappropriately suggest instability.     

Why Don't Issuers Get Upset About Leaving Money on the Table in IPOs?

One of the puzzles regarding initial public offerings (IPOs)is that issuers rarely get upset about leaving substantial amountsof money on the table, defined as the number of shares soldtimes the difference between the first-day closing market priceand the offer price. The average IPO leaves $9.1 million onthe table. This number is approximately twice as large as thefees paid to investment bankers and represents a substantialindirect cost to the issuing firm. We present a prospect theorymodel that focuses on the covariance of the money left on thetable and wealth changes. Our reasoning also provides an explanationfor a second puzzling pattern: much more money is left on thetable following recent market rises than after market falls.This results in an explanation of hot issue markets. We alsooffer a new explanation for why IPOs are underpriced.     

Wealth Effects on Self-insurance

This paper considers the wealth effects on self-insurance investment that reduces loss. Wealthier individuals can bear the risk better, and invest less in self-insurance with two states of the world. Self-insurance, like insurance, is thus an inferior good. This known result does not extend to many states. The reason is that an increase in self-insurance does not necessarily reduce final wealth in good states and increase it in bad states. Self-insurance thus may not act as insurance, and wealthier individuals may not necessarily invest less in self-insurance. The paper proposes a condition under which self-insurance is inferior, and a condition under which it is normal.