二次分配对城镇居民收入差距的调节效果分析——基于2007—2010年安徽省城镇住户调查数据

本文利用安徽省城镇住户调查数据探讨了二次分配对城镇居民收入差距的调节效果。研究表明,个人所得税和最低生活保障制度对收入差距的调节效果微乎其微;社会保障支出在一定程度上缩小了可支配收入的基尼系数,但是考虑到单位对住房公积金、养老保险、医疗保险的配套支出,最终的结果扩大了城镇居民的收入差距;目前,养老金和退休金对调节收入差距的效果最为显著,但是养老金和退休金的收入差距也比较大。     

Precautionary retirement and precautionary saving

The paper analyzes the lifetime utility maximization problem of an agent who chooses her saving and timing of retirement in the presence of labor income risk in a simple setting where a pure redistributive pension scheme is in place. In this context, a precautionary motive for retirement, which pushes old workers to replace an uncertain labor income with certain pension payments, and to retire early is identified. The conditions for precautionary retirement and saving to arise are then characterized and interpreted in two settings. In the first setting, utility only depends on income, and a sufficiently low level of absolute prudence is necessary for precautionary retirement. A sufficiently high level is necessary however for precautionary saving, which can coexist with precautionary retirement only for intermediate values of absolute prudence. In the second setting, agent utility also depends on leisure, and three conditions allow the precautionary motive for retirement and saving to jointly operate: prudence, an index of absolute prudence sufficiently low and cross-prudence in leisure.     

Overcompensation by severance payments

An important aim of severance payments is to reduce the economic disadvantages of dismissed employees. However, it may well be the case that a considerable fraction of employees is actually better off, if they are re-employed shortly after their dismissal. This is the first attempt to estimate the relevance of overcompensation by severance payments. It is found that about 7% of dismissed employees or about one quarter of those with severance payments are overcompensated in Germany. In particular, employees with many years of tenure have chances to receive severance payments as well as wage increases in their new jobs subsequent to dismissal.     

Age-specific entrepreneurship and PAYG: Public pensions in Germany

We present new empirical evidence on the distribution of earnings, income and wealth among entrepreneurs in Germany. We document that both earnings and income are more concentrated among entrepreneurs than among workers and describe a large-scale overlapping-generations model that replicates the age-earnings profiles of these two household types. As an application, we compute the equilibrium effects of a reform of the German pay-as-you-go pension system in which entrepreneurs must also contribute and receive a pension. We show that in the presence of mobility between workers and entrepreneurs, the expected lifetime utility of all newborn households unanimously declines due to the general equilibrium effects of lower aggregate savings, and welfare losses amount to approximately 0.7% of total consumption. In addition, the integration of self-employed workers into the social security system in Germany does not help to improve its fiscal sustainability, and only an increase in the retirement age to 70 years will help to finance pensions at the present level beyond the year 2050.     

Do tax subsidies for retirement saving affect total private saving? New evidence on middle-income workers*

We exploit exogenous variation from a pension reform in Denmark to estimate the effect of tax subsidies on total private saving. We present new evidence on individuals in the middle of the income distribution and show that a reduction in tax subsidies for retirement saving reduces total private saving. The reform changed the tax incentives for saving in the pension scheme that holds the highest tax advantage for middle-income workers in Denmark. We find that for each unit of reduced saving in this pension scheme, only 64 percent is substituted to other types of saving.     

Social security and retirement incentives in Austria

This paper provides an overview of the interaction between social security and retirement behavior in Austria in the decades up to the on-going reform process. The key question is, how much of the retirement behavior can be attributed to incentive effects of the pension system. We describe the labor market and retirement behavior of the elderly in Austria, survey the key features of the public pension system and finally present the results of a series of simulations aimed at assessing the retirement incentives generated by the pension system. We compute levels and accrual rates of social security wealth and implicit tax rates on continued work according to the method portrayed in Gruber and Wise [Gruber J, Wise D (1999) Social security and retirement around the world. University of Chicago Press, Chicago London]. To some extent, the sharp drop in labor force participation among the elderly must be attributed to major disincentives of the Austrian pension system; the system turns out to provide significant incentives to retire early. Past reforms have reduced the disincentives. Our results, however, show the need to further reform the public pension scheme and to reorient it stronger towards the principle of actuarial fairness.     

Social Desirability of Earnings Tests

Abstract. In many countries, pension systems involve some form of earnings test; i.e. an individual's benefits are reduced if he has labor income. This paper examines whether or not such earnings tests emerge when pension system and income tax are optimally designed. We use a simple model with individuals differing both in productivity and in their health status. The working life of an individual has two 'endings': an official retirement age at which he starts drawing pension benefits (while possibly supplementing them with some labor income) and an effective age of retirement at which professional activity is completely given up. Weekly work time is endogenous, but constant in the period before official retirement and again constant (but possibly at a different level), after official retirement. Earnings tests mean that earnings are subject to a higher tax after official retirement than before. We show under which conditions earnings tests emerge both under a linear and under a non-linear tax scheme. In particular, we show that earnings tests will occur if heterogeneities in health or productivity are more significant after official retirement than before.     

中国个人养老金账户基金的资产负债管理研究——基于多阶段随机规划视角

我国现行的养老保障体制采用社会统筹与个人账户相结合的筹资模式,虽然两者都是养老金制度体系的支柱,但不同的收支平衡原则和实现目标,以及"混账"管理带来的种种弊端,使得统筹基金和个人账户基金分开进行独立管理势在必行。个人账户基金放开固定缴费率限制,支付体现指数化,以及作为重要的机构投资者参与分配资本市场运营成果,实现其未来支付目标、体现财富再分配功能、确保基金的保值增值,提高养老水平,是必然的发展趋势。分析我国基本养老金的运营现状,结合国际上先进的研究成果,为我国基本养老金的个人账户基金管理提出了全面、动态的分析框架。     

Pension Reforms: An Illustrated Basic Analysis

The paper examines pension reforms under population ageing.The concepts of "implicit pension debt", "implicit tax" and"internal rate of return" are first introduced with the helpof a three-period model. Using stylised facts, ageing is tracedto low fertility and increasing longevity. Formulating a benchmarkfor intergenerational fairness leads to a framework for designingpension reforms such that leaving an unfair burden to futuregenerations is avoided. Secondly, a yearly simulation modelis used to arrive at the following main results for reform blueprints: (1) In a Defined Benefit (DB) system, partial pre-funding isneeded to achieve intergenerational fairness unless benefitsare sufficiently reduced; partial privatisation is an optionfor the management of the accumulating funds. (2) Transition from a DB to a Notional Defined Contribution(NDC) system is another reform option; it reduces the replacementrates to levels which match prescribed contribution rates; anNDC public pillar can be accompanied by a second pillar, managedby the private sector. (3) An effective increase in the retirement age is necessaryto moderate the increase in pension expenditure and to preserveadequate pension levels. (4) Pension reforms have important effects on public financetarget setting. (JEL H1, H5, H6)     

The portable guarantee to exchange back an old defined benefit for a new defined contribution (DC) pension plan

As a defined contribution (DC) pension plan is introduced to replace a defined benefit (DB) pension plan, the portability benefit from a DC pension plan costs the employees to bear the investment risk from managing the pension fund. To protect the retirement income and maintain the portability benefit, a guarantee to exchange back the old defined benefit is supposed to be demanded for the new DC plan's participants in the guarantee market. In light of such a demand, this article applies a claim-terminating insurance pricing model to offer a contingent claims pricing model for a portable pension guarantee. Using the new labor pension plan of Taiwan as an illustration, a guaranteed DC pension will carry an extra cost of almost 50% up to over 100% of the plan's contributions over the participant's work life, given the current mandatory minimum requirement of a contribution rate of 6%.     

延迟退休年龄与养老保险收支余额:作用机制及政策效应

文章通过连续时间养老金收支模型分析认为延迟退休年龄对养老保险计划收支余额的影响来自四个方面的效应,即缴费年限效应、领取年限效应、替代率效应和差异效应。改革的最终效果是上述四种效应共同作用的结果。短期看,前两种效应占据主导;长期看,后两种效应也具有显著影响。延迟退休年龄的政策效果和工资增长率、养老金增长率、改革速度以及未来参保人口结构有关。理论分析和实证检验结果表明,无论从改革过程还是从对养老保险计划收支余额的影响看,延迟退休年龄都是一个复杂而渐进的过程,延迟退休年龄必将减轻政府在养老保险方面负担的传统说法并不全面。     

关于缩小企业与机关事业单位养老金差距的研究述评

受养老保险制度"碎片化"影响,我国机关事业单位与企业的养老金存在较大差距且逐渐拉大,成为社会保障制度建设中不得不解决的问题。制度分割导致的养老金"双轨"运行,是导致企业与机关事业单位养老金待遇差距的主要原因。要缩小这种差距必须从改革模式和制度设计两方面入手。而公务员养老制度能否和事业单位一起改革、第二支柱养老保险能否真正发挥作用、养老保险改革是否会联动其他制度改革等问题,直接影响养老金制度改革的成败。     

Contribution-based vs. earnings-related retirement pension systems: some policy proposals for Italy

This paper analyses the relationship between contributions paid and benefits received within the current old age pension scheme, evaluating the implications of reinforcing the link between individual contributions and benefits, in a framework where welfare assistance and social security are kept separate. Section 2 describes the theoretical model, adopted to examine the factors affecting the contribution-based and the earnings-related annual pension or the total pension benefits over the entire retirement period. The consequences that different levels of relevant parameters have on the ratio between the two yearly pensions are, then, analysed. Section 3 illustrates the longitudinal sample of private employees belonging to the National Institute for Social Security (INPS–FPLD), in particular of those who will retire between 1995–96 and 2001: it is used to calculate the annual earnings-related and contribution-based pension. In aceteris paribussituation, allowing for all intragenerational redistribution transfers currently provided by the pension system (through a supplement to an established minimum pension, through ceilings and reversory rights), the annual contribution-based pension appears to be in 1995 about two thirds of the annual earnings-related one. This implies that the State could currently save one third of its expenditure for new FPLD pensioners, by simply switching to a criterion of social security fairness (giving each to his own in actuarial terms) without relinquishing any of the distributive corrections currently enacted within the pension system. Through this potential reform, in the next 7 years total State savings at constant prices would reach 14 000 billion lire, or 2·2% of the stock value of pensions in the same time interval.     

延长退休年龄还是增加缴费基数： 养老金改革的路径选择与政策效应*

随着人口老龄化加剧和预期寿命延长,我国养老保险体系面临预期养老金支付严重不足的挑战。本文基于总量视角建立基础养老金收支模型,利用中国人口预测数据,分别测算基于实施“延长退休年龄”和“增加缴费基数”两种不同的改革策略未来30年中国基础养老金的收支余额,并评估政策效果。研究结果表明,“推迟退休年龄”对缓解养老金基金支付压力作用明显,但存在增加就业压力等负外部性。“增加缴费人数”亦可以缓解养老金支付困境,且不存在负外部性,但推行时间缓慢,或将产生新的公共财政压力。     

Overview of the Portuguese Three Pillar Pension System

In order to cope with alleged future financial problems, several changes were made to the design of the Portuguese pension system since 2000. The aim was to achieve the diversification of retirement income sources across providers, both public and private, across the three pillars: public, industry-wide, and personal, and also across the financing forms of pay-as-you-go and funded. This paper describes these changes and analyses the results regarding, principally, the weight of each pillar and the investment performance of both public pension reserves and private pension funds. The main finding is that, in effect, there is one substantial longstanding pillar, and that is the public system.     

Wage-shifting effects of severance payments savings accounts in Colombia

In 1990, Colombia replaced its traditional system of severance payments with a new system of severance payments savings accounts (SPSAs). Although severance payments are often justified on the grounds that they provide insurance against earnings loss, they also increase costs for employers and distort employment decisions. The extent of these distortions depends largely on how much of the costs of severance pay can be shifted from employers to workers. One reason why the effects of severance pay may not be completely shifted is that workers may fear the firm will “take the money and run” by declaring bankruptcy. A system of SPSAs eliminates this moral hazard problem, so it should facilitate the shifting of severance payments' costs to workers in the form of lower wages. Empirical results using the Colombian National Household Surveys (NHS) indicate that the introduction of SPSAs lowered wages by between 60% and 80% of total severance payment contributions. These results are consistent with increased shifting after SPSAs were introduced.     

中国城镇养老保险制度改革的收入分配效应

在公共养老保险制度下,可以通过调整养老保险的缴费率或养老金计发办法来影响参保人一生中的养老金纯受益,从而实现代际间和代际内的收入再分配。本文利用中国国家统计局2002年的城市住户调查数据,分别估计城镇参保职工在1997年养老保险制度和2005年最新养老保险制度下的终生养老金纯受益,并以此从代际间和代际内的角度对中国养老保险制度改革的收入分配效应进行定量分析。分析表明:在1997年的改革方案下改革前的养老保险制度中存在的逆向收入转移效果得到改善;但在2005年改革方案下,2002年时40岁以上的群体中存在较明显的逆向收入转移倾向。另一方面,从代际分配来看,1997年改革方案的代际不平衡大于2005年改革方案;在2005年改革方案下各代人的养老金纯受益都有所提高,但这是以养老保险制度的缴费率和养老金计发办法不变,养老财政收支能维持平衡以及参保人在整个工作期间按规定缴费为前提的。     

Labour-incentive reforms at preretirement age in Austria

Low participation rates of older workers in the labour market threaten the sustainability of the pension system in Austria. Given the current political debate on this issue, we try to shed light on employment and retirement behaviour of Austrian couples when income support is provided and pension benefits are reduced. Using a sample of married couples with both partners aged 50–65, we find that the proposed reform increases the labour supply of middle-income men whereas the effects on women are weaker. However, somehow surprisingly, we find that these reforms have an increasing effect on unemployment/inactivity probabilities which in turn is outweighed by a decreasing effect on the retirement probabilities in case of women. These findings emphasize the importance of a joint consideration of labour supply and retirement behaviour of married couples when introducing pension reforms and tax-benefit policies.     

An increase in the retirement age in China: the regional economic effects

China’s pension system is in need of comprehensive reform. One measure on which we focus is to increase the retirement age. It is likely that a change in retirement age will have significantly different effects across China’s regions. Interregional disparities are already very substantial in China and it will be important to know how changes in pension arrangements will affect disparities. We consider four policies to increase the retirement age from 60 to 61. They differ according the use made of the extra revenue generated by the policy. All four policies increase welfare and reduce the interregional welfare gap.