市场化进程中的宗族网络与乡村企业

基于中国社会综合调查(CGSS2005)400村和4000农户数据,本文分析了宗族网络对乡村企业的影响、作用机制以及宗族网络作用随市场化的变化。研究结果表明:(1)宗族网络对乡村企业的发展具有显著的负向影响。宗族网络发达的村庄拥有企业的数量明显低于宗族网络不发达村庄。(2)通过对宗族网络影响乡村企业作用机制的检验发现,在市场化相对成熟时期,宗族网络的短半径信任效应和短半径交易效应的作用更为突出,而产权保护效应的作用已经不甚明显。(3)随着市场化的推进,宗族网络在乡村企业发展过程中的作用经历了从促进到阻碍的转变。     

乡村治理现代化过程中宗族与地权稳定性

本文基于村庄政治介入不足状态下地权竞争的分析发现,多宗族的存在与制衡有助于稳定地权并提高其可交易性.即使宗族力量对比失衡,弱者反抗和政治介入也能够有效限制宗族对地权稳定性的不利影响,甚至加固地权稳定性.利用2016年中国劳动力动态调查数据实证研究结果显示:(1)宗族间的相互制衡会使得农地调整更容易按照村民诉求进行,农地承包经营权证书发放率和农地流转率也更高;(2)当村庄农业劳动力占比提高及村庄处于偏远山区所表征的农地重要性提高时,宗族力量对比失衡对地权稳定性和农地流转的抑制性会被有效削弱;(3)随着政治介入,宗族按照势力配置村庄地权并抑制农地流转的行动逻辑将被有效限制.此外,宗族力量对比失衡与地权稳定性的负向关系仅出现在南方地区,具有典型的区域差异性.本文强调,宗族间的相互制衡、宗族面临弱者反抗和政治介入时的自我约束,均具有稳定地权和促使村庄资源合理配置的作用.这对于祛除宗族糟粕、取其精华,发挥其对党领导的乡村治理现代化的助益作用具有借鉴意义.     

宗族文化与企业创新投入

创新是提高企业核心竞争力,促进产业升级,推动经济高质量增长的关键因素.宗族文化浓厚是中国传统文化的重要特点,但是,研究宗族文化和企业创新之间关系的文献还很少.本文利用2010～2020年中国A股上市公司的数据,研究了宗族文化对企业创新的影响.研究结果表明,宗族文化显著抑制了企业创新投入,经过各种稳健性检验后这一关系依然成立.机制检验发现,企业内部薪酬差距和股权激励是两条潜在的影响路径.分组检验表明,宗族文化对企业创新投入的抑制作用,在市场化程度高和民营企业中更明显.在民营企业中,这种抑制作用在非家族企业中更明显.研究还发现,宗族文化也会显著地抑制企业创新产出.本文揭示了宗族文化对企业创新投入存在显著的负面影响,证明了宗族文化对企业发展存在积极影响的同时,也存在消极影响的另一面.     

宗族网络、村干部经商经历与农地经营权流转*

本文综合讨论了村干部和宗族组织对农地经营权流转的影响和作用机制，并且运用中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据对理论分析假设进行了验证。研究结果表明：在农地产权配置和流转交易市场现实约束条件下，村干部和宗族组织作为村庄权威，均对农地流转具有显著影响。其中，以经商能人为代表的村干部对农户家庭农地有偿流转行为有显著的正向影响。宗族组织为维持组织网络结构稳定，对农地无偿流转有显著的正向影响，但是对有偿流转有显著的负向影响。此外，村干部和宗族组织显著抑制了农地撂荒现象的发生。本文的发现对理解村干部和宗族组织在农地流转市场化进程中的行为特点具有一定的意义。     

土地资本化视角下的乡村发展研究——珠江三角洲村庄土地变化的一个案例

在田野调查资料的基础上,追溯珠江三角洲一个村庄在过去约30年的土地变化过程。在市场化转型和乡村城市化的总体背景下,以土地资本化的视角,从个体(家庭)-村集体-企业的关系角度,探讨该社区土地变化及空间演变的深层机制,力求解析农村土地在由资源转为资产继而转为资本的变化过程对于乡村发展的影响。     

网络基础设施、知识溢出与城市创新——来自“宽带中国”战略的准自然实验

在实施“网络强国”战略背景下，以知识溢出为切入点，借助“宽带中国”政策构建准自然实验，考察了网络基础设施对城市创新的影响效应与机制。研究发现：(1)网络基础设施具有明显的知识溢出效应，显著提升了本地的创新水平，在一系列稳健性检验下该结论仍然成立。(2)网络基础设施对城市创新的提升效应存在时间异质性，创新效应随着时间的推移先变大后变小，在网络扩张的第3年达到最大。(3)空间异质性分析发现，网络基础设施建设的创新效应在东部、城市规模较大和交通基础设施较发达的城市更大。(4)网络基础设施对城市创新的影响具有空间溢出效应，对邻近地区的创新水平也会产生正向影响，若不考虑空间溢出效应，则会高估网络基础设施对本地城市创新的提升作用。研究结论为新时代国家发挥“网络强国”和“创新强国”战略的“合力效应”提供了重要的政策参考。     

市场化程度与社会网络的收入效应——基于农民工数据的实证研究

文章基于中国2010年22个省(市)的农民工数据,实证研究了市场化改革对社会网络收入效应的影响。研究结论显示,随着市场化改革的不断深入,社会网络的收入效应呈现减少的趋势,即市场化程度上升1个单位,社会网络的收入效应将下降0.3个百分点。然而在体制内部门,社会网络机制的作用却越来越强,这在一定程度上表明体制外部门的市场化改革较为顺利,体制内市场化改革的阻力仍然较大——市场化程度每上升1个单位,体制内部门的社会网络收入效应会增加0.7个百分点,改革没有达到预期的理想效果。     

新型农村合作医疗保险与自主创业

本文使用独特的家户调查数据,考察了新农合政策对农民创业行为的影响。结果发现,相比非参合村庄,新农合试点村庄的农民每年以自主创业为经营主业的可能性增加了约5个百分点,而且这一影响具有一定的持续性。新农合对创业的促进作用在初始医疗支出较高或未来医疗负担风险较大的家庭中更强。在宗族组织越发达的村庄,新农合对农民创业的促进作用会更小。换言之,宗族组织作为一种非正式风险分担制度会替代新农合制度的保险效应。     

中国城镇化对乡村振兴的影响效应

文章以中国劳动力动态调查数据为基础，研究城镇化对乡村振兴的影响效应与作用机制。研究发现：(1)城镇化对乡村振兴具有显著的促进作用，经济城镇化是实现乡村振兴的重要途径，其次是人口城镇化和土地城镇化。(2)产业发展是城镇化对乡村振兴的关键因素。乡村发展要坚持以产业发展为导向，推动农业专业化和规模化发展，构建一二三产业融合体系。(3)城镇化对乡村宜居水平、文明程度、治理成效和生活富裕具有重要影响。城镇化对乡村振兴具有经济促进效应、文化传承效应、组织治理效应、宜居水平和生活改善效应。(4)城镇化对不同类型的乡村影响不同。山地和丘陵地区的城镇化对乡村的促进效应主要由经济城镇化即产业的非农化实现，而人口城镇化和土地城镇化不显著。平原地区的经济城镇化、人口城镇化和土地城镇化对于乡村振兴均具有显著的促进作用。     

城市群多中心空间结构对乡村振兴的影响——基于中国19个城市群的实证分析

文章基于2000—2019年中国区县面板数据和19个城市群数据，研究城市群多中心空间结构对乡村振兴的影响效应与作用机制。研究发现：(1)城市群多中心空间结构主要通过集聚效应和扩散效应影响乡村振兴，集聚效应对乡村振兴具有抑制作用，扩散效应对乡村振兴具有促进作用。(2)实证结果显示，现阶段我国19个城市群对乡村振兴的影响总体上表现为抑制作用，但是不同发展阶段的城市群表现出较大的异质性。其中，成熟型城市群多中心化对乡村振兴具有促进作用，发展型城市群多中心化对乡村振兴具有抑制作用，培育型城市群多中心化对乡村振兴的作用不显著。(3)进一步分析城市群多中心化对乡村振兴5个子系统的影响发现，成熟型城市群多中心空间结构通过提高产业兴旺、乡风文明和生活富裕指数来促进乡村振兴，发展型城市群通过抑制产业兴旺、生态宜居、治理有效和生活富裕指数制约了乡村振兴，培育型城市群多中心化对治理有效和生活富裕指数具有抑制作用，但是对产业兴旺、生态宜居和乡风文明指数的影响并不显著。基于上述发现，现阶段中国城市群多中心化空间布局应综合考虑城市群发展阶段，实施差别化政策，促进区域协调发展。     

Transport Modal Choice by Multinational Firms: Firm-level Evidence from Southeast Asia

The impacts of trade liberalization on poverty status of farm households in Africa often come through its effects on prices, government revenues, and employment, among other things. For the case of Ethiopia, the main channel through which trade liberalization affects farm households is changes in the prices of inputs and outputs. The aim of this study is to empirically examine the impacts of trade reform on poverty status in rural Ethiopia. The results show that, although households’ resource endowment had consistent and significant improvement impacts, trade liberalization had mixed effects on change in poverty status. As a result of trade liberalization, contrary to expectation, changes in the prices of cash crops (i.e. chat and coffee) had increased the probability of remaining poor and falling into poverty. On the other hand, changes in the relative prices of staple food crops (i.e. teff and wheat), together with access to credit and schools, had increased the probability of escaping poverty and remaining above the poverty line.     

POVERTY DYNAMICS DURING TRADE REFORM: EVIDENCE FROM RURAL VIETNAM

This paper implements and adapts the conceptual framework developed by Winters (2002) that identifies the transmission mechanisms between trade policy reform and household welfare outcomes. We make use of household panel data from Vietnam collected in two years, 1992–93 and 1997–98 that span the very earliest years of the reform period and its immediate after effects. Poverty dynamics are modeled using changes in consumption expenditure and poverty transition models. The trade effect is captured by a set of variables that are most likely to have an impact on rural poverty, namely prices of staples and employment in the export sector. We show that trade liberalization has a material and positive effect on rural household welfare and this trade effect is largely transmitted to the poor through the labor market channel.     

How deep is your love? A quantitative spatial analysis of the transatlantic trade partnership

This paper explores the quantitative effects of trade liberalization envisioned in a transatlantic trade and investment partnership (TTIP) between the United States and the European Union. We use a quantitative trade model that, in contrast to other works, features consumptive and productive uses of land and we allow for labor mobility and a spatial equilibrium. Our calibration draws mainly on the world input–output database (WIOD). The eventual outcome of the negotiations is uncertain. Tariffs in E.U.–U.S. trade are already very low, however, so that an agreement will have a major impact only by eliminating nontariff barriers. These are extremely hard to quantify. We address these uncertainties by considering a corridor of trade‐liberalization paths and by providing numerous robustness checks. Even with ambitious liberalization, real income gains within a TTIP are in the range of up to 0.46 percent for most countries. The effect on outside countries is typically negative, yet even smaller. Taking land into account scales down the welfare effects strongly. Interestingly, we find that all German counties derive unambiguous welfare gains even though the model allows for negative terms‐of‐trade effects. Our analysis also implies that in order to arrive at the same welfare gains as under a TTIP, a multilateral liberalization would have to be much more ambitious for the U.S. than for the E.U.     

规模经济、人民币汇率与民营企业进出口——兼论民营企业进出口的影响因素

分析了包括规模经济、汇率在内的影响我国民营企业进出口的主要因素。结论认为,人民币升值导致其出口下降,但进口反而减少,人民币升值对民营企业的负面影响较大;随着民营企业规模的扩大,其进出口规模也在增加;2004年贸易经营权的放开对民营企业出口没有明显的刺激效应,但对进口有明显影响;研发支出增加对民营企业出口没有明显影响,但对进口有正面影响;人均国民收入的增加和民营企业进出口没有太大关系。     

Partial Privatization,Foreign Competition,and Optimum Tariff*

Using a simple international mixed oligopoly model with one public and one or more foreign firms, this paper examines the effect of partial privatization or foreign competition on optimum tariffs and finds that foreign competition lowers the optimal tariff rate but partial privatization raises it. This result implies that trade liberalization is welfare improving if a country opens up its economy by allowing foreign competition. However, the liberalization policy is not desirable when the country only partially or completely privatizes its publicly‐owned enterprises.     

地区市场异质性、研发投入对企业创新绩效的影响

基于规模以上制造业企业面板数据,利用面板数据固定效应模型,分析研发投入、地区市场异质性对企业创新绩效的影响,以及地区市场异质性在研发投入影响企业创新绩效上的调节作用。结果表明,研发投入对企业创新绩效有显著正向影响,地区市场规模对企业创新绩效有显著负向影响,地区市场竞争程度对企业创新绩效也有显著负向影响;地区市场规模在研发投入对创新绩效的影响关系上有显著负向调节作用,地区市场竞争程度也有显著负向调节作用。     

Politician control, agency problems and ownership reform

Using data from a recent national survey on the ownership reform of state‐owned enterprises in China, we study the effects of reducing politician control and agency problems on a number of reform outcomes. Taking into account the endogenous nature of the reform, we find that these outcome measures of the reform's success are positively affected by the lessening of politician control through increasing the firm's flexibility in labour deployment and by the mitigation of agency costs through the introduction of more effective corporate governance mechanisms such as one‐share one‐vote and shareholding‐based board structure composition. Ownership structure also matters: relative to shareholding by the state, foreign ownership has a positive effect on reform outcomes; individual (mostly employee) shareholding has a negative or insignificant effect. Somewhat surprisingly, operating autonomy (excluding labour deployment flexibility) has a negative effect on firm performance, suggesting serious agency problems in the reformed enterprises.     

Overall effects of financial liberalization: financial crisis versus economic growth

ABSTRACT

The contribution of this work consists firstly in decomposing the effect of financial liberalization into a global direct positive effect on growth and an indirect negative effect via financial fragility and crisis. We show that the aggregate positive effect of financial liberalization outweighs the negative partial or temporary effect. Secondly, contrary to previous works, we distinguish many types of financial reforms. We found that equity market liberalization is the most important component in reducing economical costs associated with financial crisis. Thus, equity market liberalization is the most important favoring growth. Interest rate liberalization enhances significantly the probability of crisis leading to a short-run indirect effect more important than other financial reforms. Thirdly, we improved our work by addressing model uncertainty using Bayesian Model Averaging techniques to choose appropriate indicators for model crisis specification.     

Agricultural trade liberalization,price changes,and environmental effects

Many analyses of agricultural trade liberalization have been undertaken but few have considered the effects on the environment. For the developed countries, reducing the degree of protection would result in less intensive production; therefore, environmental stress would be reduced. A reduction of trade barriers in industrial countries would result in higher world prices and in a somewhat lower world price variability. Assuming initially no policy changes for developing countries, the question is how the liberalization would affect the environment. Higher Prices in developing countries increase the level of production by intensifying production, particularly in the commercial sector, and by an area expansion. Both result in negative environmental effects. These could be partly offset by an increase in hired labor in the commercial sector, which might reduce pressure at the frontier and on marginal lands, as well as by the income effect. These off-setting effects may be small; however, the direction of the overall environmental effects cannot be determined unambiguously without empirical examination. At the global level, the beneficial economic effects of agricultural trade liberalization probably outweigh the expected negative environmental effects in developing countries, but this cannot be unambiguously established without valuation.