经济增长、汇率制度对东盟五国高规模外汇储备的影响研究

通过使用东盟五个国家2000—2021年的面板数据，讨论内在经济增长以及汇率制度选择对一国外汇储备积累的影响。研究发现，经济增长对外汇储备规模的影响呈正相关关系；随着东盟五国汇率制度浮动程度或灵活性的提高，一国外汇储备水平也随之增加，说明即使逐步放宽对汇率的管制，东盟五个经济体依然会持有更多的外汇储备；对外债务规模也与外汇储备正相关；而金融开放度与外汇储备显著负相关，说明资本管制程度更高的经济体会持有更多的外汇储备。总结东盟五国现状以及研究结果可以推断：目前这五个国家储备资产规模较大，国内经济增长和汇率制度选择是导致外储不断增加的重要因素，为预防过多储备带来的负面效应，东盟五国应优化外汇储备结构、促进储备多元化，并建立安全有效的金融网络。     

基于货币数量论的货币冲销有效性实证研究

一、引言我国的汇率制度并不是完全浮动的,采取的是有管理的浮动汇率制度。随着近年我国双顺差(经常账户和资本账户)的持续扩大,并随之带来资本流入,我国必然面临资本流入导致货币扩张的问题。有管理的浮动汇率制度要求维持人民币汇率的相对稳定。中国人民银行从2001年开始被动和经常性地在外汇市场上购入外汇,我国的外汇储备持续不断增长,从2001年初的1686亿美元急剧增加到     

开放经济下我国货币政策面临的问题分析

开放经济条件下,我国逐步推进汇率制度改革,放松资本流动管制,我国货币政策在汇率保持稳定的要求下面临较多问题,文章以解决货币政策面临问题为目的,提出加强外汇储备管理、完善储备结构和保值方法,扩大人民币汇率浮动幅度、改革结售汇制度,健全利率市场化形成机制、完善政策操作方法。     

巨额外汇储备带给我们的思考

自2000年起,随着我国对外贸易的快速发展和外商直接投资的不断增加,我国的外汇储备也在迅猛增长,截至2006年2月底,我国外汇储备增至8537亿美元,超过日本位居世界第一。如何看待外汇储备的超常增长,如何防范由此带来的风险,这已成为国内各界人士普遍关注的问题。我国外汇储备的增长概况建国以后很长一段时期,我国是一个外汇短缺的国家。1994年1月1日,我国成功地实行了外汇体制改革,人民币官方汇率与外汇调剂市场汇率并轨,实行银行结售汇制度,对人民币汇率实行有管理的浮动。之后,我国国际收支状况大为改善,外汇储备大幅度增加,人民币汇率和币…     

汇率高低及变动对本国经济的影响

近年来,人民币汇率之所以成为世人关注的焦点,起因于我国目前经常项目和资本项目的"双顺差"和外汇储备的不断增长,由此形成了人民币面临升值压力的表象.对此,我们应有冷静客观地分析.汇率是把双刃剑,频繁的高低变动对本国经济不利,只有保持人民币汇率基本稳定,才有利于本国经济平稳运转.     

中国外汇储备形势与对策思考

中国外汇储备最近连续三年年外汇储备增量超过2000亿美元,目前储备总量已达一万亿美元。高额外汇储备对外汇管理提出挑战,外汇储备的过度增长更对人民币币值稳定、货币政策效果具有重要影响。要正确处理当前外汇储备问题,必须提高储备存量管理水平,遏制储备过快增长。要正确处理外汇储备与货币政策、人民币币值的勃论关系,必须完善人民币汇率形成机制,改革强制结售汇制度。     

外汇储备对我国经济发展的影响

近年来,中国的国际收支连年保持巨额顺差态势,外汇储备额也随之大幅度增长.我国是一个处于经济高速增长和体制转轨时期的发展中大国,面对外汇储备的高速增长形势,高额的外汇储备对中国经济的发展引起人们的关注.高额外汇储备对我国经济发展的影响,可从两方面来认识.积极的有益处的:外汇储备充足,有利于人民币汇率稳定,增强国际清偿能力;有利于应对突发事件,防范金融风险.负面的影响是:高额外汇储备,有较高的汇率风险;高额外汇储备,使我国承担着高额的机会成本损失等.     

国际收支视角下人民币汇率形成机制改革探讨

我国国际收支持续双顺差和外汇储备大幅增长导致了人民币升值压力的形成。目前我国已实行以市场供求为基础的有管理的浮动汇率制,且已实现了人民币经常项目下的可兑换,因而外汇市场供求和国际收支状况对人民币汇率的影响逐步加大。本文基于外汇供求模型构建了我国国际收支影响人民币汇率形成的模型并进行了实证分析,结果显示出口、外资流入和外汇储备变动对汇率的影响比较显著。最后基于上述分析对如何完善人民币汇率形成机制提出了政策建议。     

汇率制度转型的国际经验及对中国的启示

本文通过对20世纪90年代以来的新型市场经济国家的汇率制度转型的研究,认为:自愿转型的在转型前通常宏观经济情况良好,具有平稳的GDP增长、良好的国际收支、充足的外汇储备以及较强的金融监管能力等;危机推动转型的在转型前往往宏观经济情况恶化,GDP增长放缓、国际收支巨额赤字、外汇储备大幅减少以及较差的金融监管能力。自愿转型对经济没有负面影响,而危机推动的转型会对经济产生较大的负面冲击。最后总结了对我国汇率制度改革值得借鉴的经验。     

外汇储备对人民币国际化的影响分析

人民币国际化是人民币未来发展的必然趋势,对我国经济的长远发展和国际地位的提高都有重要意义.目前,我国数额庞大的外汇储备是推动人民币国际化的关键因素之一.本文介绍了人民币国际化、外汇储备的概念,指出充分利用我国外汇储备的重要作用,论述了国内外相关学者的研究成果及外汇储备的历程和增长原因,分析了外汇储备在我国人民币国际化进程中的作用、人民币国际化的意义,重点分析了外汇储备通过各因素人民币国际化的影响.在此基础上文章论述了以外汇储备促进人民币国际化的对策:一是以我国大量的外汇储备为支撑,开放资本账户,鼓励境外持有人民币,扩大人民币的使用范围,推进国内金融业改革;二是建立外汇平准基金,稳定汇率,为人民币国际化提供稳定的汇率保障;三是调整外汇储备的币种结构,更好地发挥外汇储备促进对外贸易、稳定经济的作用,扩大人民币在贸易结算中的使用,从而促进人民币国际化.     

Rethinking Fast Growth in China＇s Foreign Exchange Reserves

I. Introduction Since 2000, China’s foreign exchange reserves have been growing fast. By the end of 2001, China’s foreign exchange reserves had exceeded US$200bn and by the end of 2002 had reached US$286.4bn. By the end of 2003, it had reached US$403.3bn and in 2004 it reached US$609.9bn. In 1999, China’s foreign exchange reserves accounted for 15.6 percent of its GDP. The ratio has been growing continually and was 36.88 percent of GDP by 2004 (see Table 1), making China the second…     

China＇s Rapid Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Its Policy Implications

In late February 2006, China surpassed Japan to become the world's largest holder of foreign exchange reserves. Beijing is now faced with the growing challenge of how to handle these vast reserves effectively. Although China's soaring foreign exchange reserves indicate that its overall strength has grown, they have created internal and external pressures on the balance of the economy, and introduced risks to the financial system. It is estimated in the present study that foreign exchange reserves of approximately US$ 400bn in 2005 would have been appropriate under circumstances of a managed floating exchange rate regime and capital control. China's actual reserves have far exceeded its normal demand. The objective of China is to maintain an optimal level that maximizes net benefits as a whole. Four main policy options are available for China to achieve its target: spending and investing foreign exchange reserves, gradual liberalization of the capital account, diversification of foreign exchange reserves and a switch in holders of foreign exchange reserves. Spending and investing in foreign exchange reserves can be undertaken in combination with liberalization in the capital account, given careful consideration of the risks involved. Liberalization should be extensive but gradual so that companies and individuals can adjust to changes in financial markets and manage portfolios while avoiding unnecessary risks. (Edited by Xiaoming Feng)     

我国外汇储备周期波动与经济周期的实证分析

文章借鉴经济周期的相关理论对外汇储备的波动进行研究,利用H-P滤波法对1979-2009年我国的外汇储备和经济增长的变化进行分析,分别从短周期、中周期和长周期的角度描述了外汇储备增长的周期性波动规律,并总结了外汇储备各周期的特征和外汇储备周期变化与经济周期之间的关系,以方便政策制定者针对不同周期阶段制定科学、合理的应对措施。     

外汇储备激增的后果及对策

近年来,我国外汇储备增长过快,外汇储备规模已经位居世界第一。庞大的外汇储备在体现我国经济实力的同时,也给我国经济发展带来了诸多负面影响。本文正是对我国外汇储备持续过快增长的经济后果进行研究。研究发现,外汇储备激增会带来储备的持有成本过高、加大人民币升值压力、引发通货膨胀和降低货币政策有效性等负面影响。为了解决我国外汇储备持续过快增长的问题,本文提出了调整外汇储备的结构、改变原有盲目鼓励出口和招商引资的政策、进一步完善我国外汇管理体制和建立新的外汇管理机构等对策。     

中国高额外汇储备的负效应分析

近些年来我国外汇储备（未含香港、台湾地区）规模增长迅速,逐年呈上升趋势,到2008年9月底外汇储备余额已超过1．9万亿美元。超过万亿美元规模的巨额储备,意味着我国有着充裕的国际支付能力。但不断增长的外汇储备也会产生诸多的不良影响。文章重点分析了持续不断增长的高额外汇储备给我国经济发展所带来的负效应,以期对加强外汇储备管理有一定的参考作用。     

我国外汇储备规模适度性分析

持有合理的外汇储备规模,是国民经济健康、稳定、持续发展的重要保证。本文应用改进后的阿格沃尔模型对我国1996-2005年的外汇储备的适度规模进行测算,根据测算结果对超额的外汇储备进行持有成本分析,最后从减少外汇储备存量和降低增量两个角度提出相应的对策建议。     

我国外汇储备高额增长的原因及对策分析

本文认为我国外汇储备的高额增长既有世界流动性过剩的外部原因,又有国内经济结构失衡导致国际收支顺差的内部原因,所以在治本之策短期内难以奏效的条件下,我们应加快我国外汇储备管理体制的改革,推动外汇资产持有主体的多元化,促进外汇储备的多渠道使用,来积极缓解我国外汇储备增长压力。     

Renminbi Exchange Rate: Peg to A Wide Band Currency Basket

Persistent renminbi (RMB) devaluation expectations are one of the greatest threats to China's macroeconomic stability. Market interventions backed by huge foreign exchange reserves and capital controls are not sufficient to eliminate the expectations of devaluation. Creating a market‐based and flexible RMB exchange rate regime holds the key to the elimination of devaluation expectations. The present paper compares the pros and cons of several policy options, and proposes to introduce, as a transition to free floating, a new exchange rate regime pegged to a currency basket with a wide band. The new regime should be able to give the RMB exchange rate enough flexibility to eliminate devaluation expectations as well as prevent excessive overshooting. To ensure a smooth transition, the new regime needs to be supported by controlling cross‐border capital flows.     

How would Capital Account Liberalization Affect China＇s Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates？

In this paper we study the determinants of gross capital flows, project the size of China's international investment position in 2020, and analyze the implications for the renminbi real exchange rate if China liberalizes the capital account. We assume in this exercise that the renminbi will have largely achieved capital account convertibility by the end of the current decade, a timetable consistent with recent proposals by the People's Bank of China. Our analysis shows that if the capital account were liberalized, China's gross international investment position would grow significantly, and inflows and outflows would become much more balanced. The private sector would turn its net liability position into a balanced position, and the official sector would reduce its net asset position significantly, relative to the country's GDP. Because of the increasing importance of private sector foreign claims and the decreasing importance of official foreign reserves, China would be able to earn higher net investment income from abroad. Overall, China would continue to be a net creditor, with the net foreign asset position as a share of GDP remaining largely stable through this decade. These findings suggest that the renminbi real exchange rate would not be particularly sensitive to capital account liberalization as capital flows are expected to be two‐sided. The renminbi real exchange rate would likely be on a path of moderate appreciation as China is expected to maintain a sizeable growth differential with its trading partners.     

外汇储备剧增导致的货币政策困境

外汇储备是体现和制约货币政策有效性的重要因素。根据“三元悖论”,中国政府为确保汇率稳定,同时实现资本准自由流动,必定要以牺牲货币政策独立性为代价。外汇储备超常增长、大量外汇占款导致央行货币政策的实施陷入被动和效果趋弱的困境,给宏观调控政策的选择提出更加复杂的难题。基于此现状,本文对该困境形成的原因和不利影响加以分析,尝试寻求解决办法。