粤港澳服务贸易自由化路径研究

随着内地与港澳更紧密贸易关系安排（CEPA）政策的出台,粤港澳经济合作特别是服务业合作进入新的发展阶段。针对这一现实,本文从服务贸易自由化等概念出发,基于完全竞争市场和规模报酬不变假设下的生产者服务贸易自由化模型,根据香港与内地生产者服务贸易特点的相关变量,对CEPA政策实施的生产者服务贸易自由化进行实证研究;分析了粤港澳服务贸易自由化的现状、问题及现实路径。研究表明,大力引进港澳服务业,特别是香港的金融服务业,切实促进前海、横琴等试验区发展,全面落实相关政策的衔接以及相应纳税政策是促进三区域服务贸易自由化的主要路径。     

Protection and Trade in Services: A Survey

This paper surveys the literature on trade in services, focusing on the policies that are used to restrict such trade, the gains from liberalization, and the institutional mechanisms that have been adopted in the pursuit of liberalization. The paper argues that technological progress and international trade negotiations are likely to keep liberalization of trade in services a high profile policy issue. It also suggests that the research agenda should focus on developing better estimates of the welfare costs of protectionism in the service sector.     

Botox and bridges: South African exports of health and construction services

Until relatively recently, policy makers and academics directed little attention to trade in services. This has changed in recognition of the increasing role of services in economic growth, trade and investment. In World Trade Organisation (WTO) and other trade negotiations, discussions on services have become as important a. s., if not more important than, those on trade in goods. Despite the growing contribution of services to exports and economic development, trade in services remains highly regulated, especially in developing countries. This article outlines the main methodological and policy challenges facing developing countries, such as South Africa, in trying to understand the economic implications of service liberalisation. This is achieved largely by means of two case studies of the construction and health services sectors. While the findings are preliminary and the policy conclusions speculative, the article provides some examples of the key analytical difficulties that arise in services analysis. More importantly, it highlights the need for the government to develop integrated service sector strategies that recognise the contribution of trade to development policy and the impact of domestic regulations on trade.     

福建服务贸易国际竞争力分析

随着世界服务贸易的快速发展,国际服务贸易市场的竞争日益加剧。本文选用服务贸易净出口、TC和RCA三个指数,对福建服务贸易的国际竞争力状况进行定量分析,从而正确认识和客观评价福建服务贸易的比较优势和国际竞争力水平。     

中国服务贸易的出口潜力估计及国际比较——基于截面数据引力模型的实证分析

本文在借鉴文献引力模型基础上,结合中国与其主要的服务贸易伙伴国的实际情况建立截面数据模型,分别得到人均GDP、人口数量、国内产品市场管制、多边市场开放度、服务贸易结构和服务开放度等变量对服务出口贸易的影响大小,预测了中国对世界的服务贸易总额及结构的出口潜力,并与美、日、韩三国作了相应比较,结果表明：我国服务贸易总额较大,传统的服务部门（如旅游、建筑服务）已经充分发挥了潜力,而新兴的服务部门尤其是金融服务出口潜力的开发仍然有很大的空间,这种贸易的不足不是由于国家的管制措施引起的,而主要是由服务行业结构特征导致的.因而促进服务出口的措施应充分考虑行业发展的均衡性以及出口额与出口效益的关系。

Abstract：

Based on the gravity model and combination of the actual situation of China with that of its major trade partners,this article creates cross-sectional data model,and obtains that the impacts of GDP per capita,population,Domestic Product Market Regulation,multilateral market openness,service trade structure,services openness et al on services exports,forecasts China,s export potential of total and structure in services trade and compares it with that of the America,Japan and Korea,the result shows that：China,s total trade in services is over-performance, traditional service sectors such as tourism and construction services have reachedtheir potential,however,the emerging sectors especially the financial services still have a lot of space for export potential. This lack of exploiting the potential arises not from our country regula-tion,but from structural characteristics of the service sector. Therefore,the measures to promote services export should be fully considered the balanced development of the industries and the relationship between export values and effectiveness.     

中国货物贸易与服务贸易结构变动的相关性检验:1997-2005

本文基于中国货物贸易与服务贸易的相关关系,对1997-2005中国货物贸易对服务贸易结构变动的影响、逆向相关性以及贸易不平衡的成因作了全面系统的介绍和分析。     

大力发展广东省服务贸易推进"双转移"战略实施

当前全球竞争的重点已从货物贸易转向服务贸易,本文从世界及中国的服务贸易发展背景入手,谈及了广东省服务贸易发展的现状、存在的问题,并就此提出了发展建议.     

Trade in services and returns on multinational activity

Conclusion This note has attempted to clarify both the theoretical and empirical reasons why the returns on the performance of a foreign subsidiary’s operations ought to be seen as returns on firm-specific knowledge (FSKs) which should be included in discussion of trade in services. This difficult task was not accomplished in a satisfactory manner by Ramstetter and Lee. It is entirely inappropriate to unbundle the activities of MNEs into returns on financial investment and a residual used to proxy payments for FSK. Rugman [1987] did not assume that the opportunity cost of financial capital is zero; rather that the “investment” activity of the MNE cannot be divorced from its FSK. The MNE uses internal markets as an integrated process to transfer FSK across national borders, raising theoretical and empirical issues for the international accounting of trade in services.     

Comparative Advantage,Trade, and Transboundary Pollution

It is common for studies on trade and environment issues to model trade patterns as driven by environmental considerations. Under conditions of trade liberalization, these studies predict the rise of pollution havens and an increase in global pollution. The extant empirical literature, however, gives only mixed support at best for the notion that trade patterns are influenced by environmental issues. We develop a simple model to investigate whether trade based on traditional comparative advantage may lead to increased global pollution. We find that trade may lead to increased global pollution if both trading nations exhibit increasing marginal disutilities of pollution.     

Services Trade Liberalisation Strategies for APEC Member Economies

A tribute to a member of our team
The work on measuring restrictions on trade in services would not have been possible without Kaleeswaran Kalirajan. KK, as he was known, was an extremely talented and energetic econometrician who worked tirelessly to develop new methodologies to measure the price and cost effects of restrictions on trade in services. KK died unexpectedly in 2003. He, and his pioneering contribution to this work, will not be forgotten.
APEC member economies are moving forward with liberalising their services markets. They have agreed to free and open trade and investment by 2020. In achieving this goal, APEC member economies can benefit greatly from understanding the effects of removing certain types of restrictions. This article brings together, for the first time, comprehensive measures of restrictions on trade in services and their liberalisation effects. APEC member economies can use these measures and analysis to devise strategies to pursue further services trade liberalisation.     

International trade and firm performance: a survey of empirical studies since 2006

The literature on international trade and firm performance grows exponentially. This paper attempts to summarize what we learn from this literature to guide future empirical and theoretical work in this area. The focus is on the empirical part of the literature that consists of recently published papers using data for firms from manufacturing or services industries to study the links between international trade (exports and imports) and dimensions of firm performance (productivity, wages, profitability and survival).     

中国高等教育服务贸易逆差的探讨

随着我国教育服务贸易的发展,教育服务贸易在我国服务贸易中占据了重要地位。自我国开放国际教育服务贸易以来,特别是2008年美国金融危机后,我国高等教育服务贸易逆差逐步增大。本文通过对我国高等教育服务贸易现状的分析,归纳出我国高等教育服务贸易逆差的表现形式,阐释了我国高等教育服务贸易逆差形成的基本原因,最后提出改善我国国际教育服务贸易逆差的对策建议。     

Does Gravity Matter in a Service Economy?

This paper estimates gravity equations for bilateral services trade in a sample of 28 countries. It finds that the standard gravity variables of economic size and geographic proximity are significant factors in services trade. It also reveals positive effects of linguistic ties on services trade. There is evidence of a positive link between regional trade arrangements and services trade. Much of that effect appears to reflect the impact of bilateral goods trade on services trade. This implies that efforts to enhance goods trade—bilateral or multilateral—should lead to more services trade as well. JEL no. F13, F15, L80     

数字贸易规则:关键议题、现实挑战与构建策略

建立和完善数字贸易发展的制度框架是国际贸易领域重要的新兴议题,也是各国对WTO改革最关切的议题之一。跨境数据流动、数字税收、数据(设施)本地化、数字贸易市场准入、数字知识产权保护以及跨境电商便利化是建立全球数字贸易框架的关键议题。目前,跨境数据流动共识规则缺失,数字产品或服务征税争议较大,数据(设施)本地化立场不同,云计算服务分类和准入存在分歧,保护数字知识产权诉求较多,贸易便利化规则尚不明确。中国支持全球各国在WTO框架下开展数字贸易新议题、新规则的谈判,具体建议包括:确立WTO在解决跨境数据流动问题上的核心地位;建立鼓励创新、兼顾公平的数字税收规则;建立以保障网络安全为基础的数据本地化规则;尊重各国在数字领域市场准入方面的关切;合理保护数字知识产权;积极促进数字贸易便利化。     

服务贸易、非对称开放与全球失衡:一项跨国的经验研究

文章从贸易内部结构出发，分析非对称开放条件下，服务贸易兴起与全球失衡之间的关系。并利用全球59个主要贸易国家2000-2014年双边贸易数据对两者之间的关系进行计量分析，实证结果显示：第一，服务贸易净值与经常账户余额之间存在显著的负向关系，服务贸易净值提高100万美元，经常账户余额减少98.7万美元。在引入交互项之后这种关系依然显著成立。因此，服务贸易的非对称开放是造成全球失衡的重要原因。第二，技术进步和利率上调可以扭转服务贸易对经常账户的抑制作用。第三，金融危机之后，服务贸易和经常账户的负向关系进一步强化。后危机时代，全球失衡现象有可能继续恶化。第四，分位数回归发现，在低点位处服务贸易净值对经常账户的影响更为强烈。文章的研究为理解中国的服务贸易逆差提供了新的视角，并为扭转服务贸易逆差奠定了理论基础。     

The ASEAN–Korea Trade In Services (AKTIS) Agreement: Its Impact on Indonesia and Other ASEAN Countries

To strengthen trade in services between ASEAN and Korea, in 2009 both sides signed and implemented the ASEAN–Korea Trade in Services (AKTIS) agreement. This article is the first to assess the trade implications of this agreement for Indonesia and other ASEAN countries. Despite the increasing volume of ASEAN–Korea trade in services since 2009, it is hard to say whether AKTIS was the only factor behind this encouraging growth. The agreement’s potential trade impact is, however, quite substantial. Given the importance of enhancing further trade in services between the ASEAN countries and Korea, we propose a number of specific liberalisation measures that Indonesia and other ASEAN countries could take to further strengthen such trade with their Asian neighbour.     

我国旅游服务贸易的国际竞争力分析

本文概述了我国和世界旅游服务贸易的现状,利用国际市场占有率指数、贸易竞争指数、比较优势等指数分析了我国旅游服务贸易竞争力在世界旅游服务贸易的地位,并提出了我国旅游服务贸易的发展对策。     

Trading firms in the services sectors: comparable evidence from four EU countries

We establish a set of stylised facts for trade and trading firms in five market services sectors using comparable firm- and activity-level data from four EU countries. Our analysis shows that exports account for much lower shares of overall sales in the services sectors than in manufacturing. This is because fewer firms are engaged in trade in the services sectors and also because within particular sectors firms trade a lower share of their sales on average. Services producers trade mostly goods, but in terms of value, trade in services is much more important to them than to manufacturers. Larger and more productive firms are more likely to be two-way traders and to engage in both goods and services trade. Trade by services firms is somewhat less dominated by firms that both export and import than trade by manufacturing firms. Few firms export many services or to many countries. The value of services exports is increasing in the number of markets served but not necessarily in the number of services traded.     

国外服务业贸易与FDI演进:文献综述及引申

国外学者关于服务贸易与产品贸易的联系与区别、影响服务贸易的因素、服务贸易的生产率效应和福利效应、服务业FDI流动、服务业FDI对生产率的影响及其福利效应、服务业贸易和服务业FDI对劳动力市场的影响等代表性研究成果表明:随着专业化分工的进一步深化以及科学的飞速发展,一些服务行业将从原有的制造业或者农业中分离出来。这就要求进一步深入对服务业贸易和服务业FDI的研究。     

中国服务贸易国际竞争力的影响因素分析与对策研究

随着服务业转移速度的不断加快和国际服务贸易自由化的持续推进,中国服务贸易取得了较快的发展,但目前仍缺乏国际竞争优势,竞争力较低。本文通过构建模型来分析影响一国服务贸易竞争力的各种因素,并利用计量模型来测定部分具体因素对中国服务贸易竞争力作用的显著程度和影响大小。最后从微观、中观和宏观三个层面提出了发展中国服务贸易,提升竞争力的对策和建议。