服务业FDI自由化与我国经济福利关系实证分析

本文利用我国1985~2005年数据对服务业FDI自由化与福利效应之间的关系进行实证分析发现:服务业FDI自由化在长期内有利于我国经济福利的改善,但短期内对我国经济福利的影响不显著。同时发现,服务业FDI自由化不是我国经济福利增加的Granger原因,而我国经济福利增加却是服务业FDI自由化的Granger原因。     

服务贸易技术溢出的实证研究——基于中国1991～2006年数据

文章利用中国服务业FDI数据分析了服务贸易对中国服务业的技术溢出效应,结果表明,中国服务贸易的发展存在技术溢出,进而提出大力发展服务贸易的相关政策建议。     

企业异质性视角下中国服务贸易出口的影响因素——基于服务业行业面板数据的实证检验

本文将异质性企业贸易理论的研究对象扩展到服务领域,利用服务业行业面板数据对异质性企业贸易理论对服务企业的适用性进行验证。实证结果表明,无论是全要素生产率还是劳动生产率都显示出与服务贸易出口规模的正相关关系,生产率越高的企业服务贸易出口规模越大;同时,服务业利用外资的规模以及服务业的竞争优势都是扩大服务贸易出口的重要原因。最后,本文根据理论和实证分析的结果得出进一步扩大服务贸易出口的建议。     

服务业FDI技术溢出与服务业全要素生产率增长--理论分析和基于中国的实证检验

文章首先分析服务业FDI技术溢出的机制,接着利用非参数的DEA-Malmquist指数对我国2003-2011年14个服务行业的全要素生产率及其分解进行了测算,最后设定面板回归模型就服务业FDI技术溢出效应进行了实证分析.研究发现:服务业技术进步在推动服务业全要素生产率增长方面发挥了主要作用,各行业的异质性决定了全要素生产率的变化有所不同;除房地产业外,服务业FDI确实存在着技术溢出效应,其显著地促进了服务业的技术进步及全要素生产率增长,但是非线性特征不明显;服务行业内部一些因素也会影响服务业全要素生产率的变化.     

外商直接投资与我国服务贸易出口的关系研究

本文通过建立时间序列,运用平稳性检验、协整检验、Granger因果检验及误差修正模型等计量方法,对我国1989～2008年的相关数据进行分析.分析结果表明.我国服务贸易出口与服务业FDI、货物贸易出口之间存在一个长期稳定的关系;服务业FDI不是服务贸易出口的Granger原因,货物贸易出口是服务贸易出口的Granger原因;误差修正模型表明,服务业FDI变动对我国服务贸易出口的影响要大于货物贸易出口.基于以上的实证研究,本文提出了针对性的建议.     

中国服务业生产率增长来源:服务进口还是出口?

理论分析表明服务进口和出口对服务业生产率的作用机制存在差异,服务进口通过行业内资源再配置效应、内生技术选择效应和竞争效应能够促进服务业生产率提升,而服务出口通过资源再配置效应、规模经济效应和技术溢出效应的综合作用方向不明确。进而采用中国服务业细分部门2004~2011年间的面板数据,在全面控制影响服务业生产率(TFP)的国内和国际因素后,实证考察了服务进口和出口对中国服务业生产率的影响差异。结果表明,在中国服务业生产率增长过程中,是服务进口(而不是服务出口)发挥了显著地促进作用,从而验证了本文的研究假设;在控制变量中,只有行业平均实际工资和资本密集度一直存在显著正向影响。鉴于服务进口和出口影响服务业生产率的作用机制差异和实际表现差异,当前我国更应注重服务进口的生产率提升效应,但长期来看应始终坚持服务进口和出口的"同时并进"发展战略。     

服务贸易对我国服务业升级的作用研究

本文利用我国1978-2012年间的统计数据,从总体和部门两视角定量分析我国服务贸易对服务业升级的影响。结论有:第一,服务贸易对我国服务业发展具有促进作用,相对而言,服务进口要比服务出口对服务业发展的影响大;第二,不同部门的服务进口对服务业升级的影响程度具有差异性,其中,通讯服务等4项进口的影响最大,传统服务贸易的作用不明显;第三,服务业FDI、国内生产总值和货物贸易对服务业升级也有一定的影响;第四,服务贸易主要通过技术溢出、制度创新、资本积累和人力资本积累四种渠道影响了我国服务业的升级。     

服务业对外直接投资的出口效应——基于我国微观企业的研究

文章基于我国服务业上市企业数据，采用多维固定效应模型，探讨和分析了我国服务业OFDI对服务贸易出口的影响，经研究发现：第一，服务业OFDI通过吸收东道国先进技术经验提升企业生产率水平和避开东道国服务贸易壁垒降低贸易成本，促进企业服务贸易出口增长；第二，我国服务业OFDI显著提升了企业服务贸易出口的二元边际，具体而言，整体上服务业OFDI会促进服务贸易出口增长4.82%，同时会提升企业的出口概率；第三，我国服务业OFDI"出口效应"存在明显的区域和行业的异质性，具体表现为：生产性服务业和消费性服务业OFDI存在显著的"出口效应"，其OFDI带动服务贸易出口的增长分别为5.68%和3.52%，而公共服务业则不存在显著的"出口效应"；东部地区和中部地区服务业OFDI存在显著的"出口效应"，其OFDI带动区域服务贸易出口的增长分别为4.97%和3.56%，而西部地区则不存在显著的"出口效应"。上述研究结论对化解我国服务贸易出口增长困境和完善服务业对外直接投资政策机制具有一定的启示意义。     

服务业FDI与服务贸易关系的文献综述

自2001年我国加入WTO后,我国服务业就呈现出稳步发展的良好势头。与此同时,服务业吸引的外商直接投资(FDI)规模逐年扩大。国内外对服务业、服务贸易和FDI的研究早已展开,尤其是近年来,在此领域的期刊文献越来越多,但较系统的文献综述较少。鉴于此,本文将对服务业FDI和服务贸易的关系的进行综述。     

中日高技术服务业FDI对制造业效率影响的比较研究——基于中介效应分析

随着经济全球化的加快和新技术的发展,服务业转移已成为国际产业转移的重要内容。而高技术服务业是现代服务业与高新技术产业相互融合发展的产物,具有广泛的产业关联性,对制造业效率影响越来越重要。本文引入生产制造成本和创新能力作为中介变量,对中日高技术服务业FDI对制造业效率的影响路径进行比较分析,实证结果表明,日本高技术服务业FDI通过降低生产成本和提高创新能力对制造业效率均有显著的正效应,而中国只有科学研究、技术服务FDI通过提高创新能力对制造业效率影响显著,其他变量均没有通过中介效应检验。我国应借鉴日本服务业发展的成功经验,注重技术引进和开发,促进高技术服务业FDI对制造业效率的提升作用。     

Spillovers from foreign direct investment in services: Evidence at sub-sectoral level for the Asia-Pacific

We take a sectoral level approach to analyzing the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. We disaggregate FDI first by manufacturing versus services, then within services by financial services, trade services, and business services. We consider the effects of FDI inflows on growth of GDP per capita, then distinguish between growth in manufacturing and services value added per capita. Our data sample comprises 14 Asia Pacific economies for the period 1985–2012 to which we apply a dynamic panel generalized method of moments estimation technique. Services FDI as a whole is found to have a significantly positive impact on GDP growth while manufacturing FDI is found to have no effect. The impetus for growth from services FDI traces to financial services in particular, acting not only directly on service sector output but through manufacturing sector output as well. By contrast, trade services FDI is found to have a significantly negative effect on manufacturing output with no significant effect on services output. Foreign participation in trade services may act to expose domestic manufacturers to international competition and may also lead to domestic consolidation to take advantage of economies of scale.     

基于商品技术分类的我国贸易条件的测算与影响因素研究

本文以1981-2011年主要进出口商品数量与金额数据为基础,分别对我国总贸易条件及基于Lall(2000)分类法为依据的分类商品的贸易条件进行计算,并对贸易条件的各影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,一国的经济水平、FDI、劳动生产率及高技术产品出口的比重对贸易条件有显著影响。经济水平的提升、实际利用的FDI的增加是贸易条件改善的主要因素;就目前我国技术水平来说,劳动生产率的提高,高技术产品出口比重的加大并不能引起我国贸易条件的改善。     

Foreign Direct Investment and Services Trade: Evidence from Malaysia and Singapore

Abstract

Services trade is an important source of growth in Malaysia and Singapore. Both economies are export-oriented and actively court foreign direct investment (FDI) to advance their economic objectives of industrialization and economic development. This paper examines the causal linkages between inward FDI and the country's engagement in services trade in bi-variate and tri-variate VAR frameworks. The empirical findings for Singapore show evidence of bi-directional causality between inward FDI and the total trade volume in services (i.e. the absolute sum of payments and receipts) as well as between FDI and services imports (in the tri-variate specification). This may reflect her relative open foreign investment policy and free trade regime in services. For Malaysia, the evidence of causality is weaker and uni-directional, from inward FDI to services imports. These findings are consistent with the different stages of economic development and openness attained by the two sample countries, and they provide useful background for trade and foreign investment policies and development strategies.     

Trade, FDI, and productivity convergence: A dynamic panel data approach in 25 countries

The investigation, described in the paper, included developing and implementing a dynamic panel framework to study and compare the role of trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) in long-run productivity convergence. Specifically, it employed the technique of a recently developed panel unit-root approach to examine and compare time-series behaviors of manufacturing productivity and services productivity of 25 countries from 1975 to 2004. Results indicated that long-run productivity convergence in manufacturing was trade-related as well as FDI-related. The results have also shown that grouping countries according to their trade partners tends to produce more significant evidence for productivity convergence than their FDI partners do. Furthermore, especially services sector shows no or little convergence, while the manufacturing sector shows strong evidence in favor of convergence. The findings suggest that trade and FDI matter for convergence particularly in the manufacturing productivity movement across countries but more specifically that trade proves more important in explaining long-run manufacturing productivity convergence.     

中国服务业FDI决定因素的实证分析

本文通过对我国服务业利用FDI的影响因素进行实证分析,验证各个解释变量对被解释变量的相关程度,先对数据的平稳性进行分析,然后综合运用ADF平稳性检验,Granger因果关系和协整检验,对各自变量对因变量的影响程度及其原因展开了深入分析。     

Understanding the role of trade agreements in Indonesia’s FDI

In this paper, we develop the hypothesis that trade agreements influence foreign direct investment (FDI). We extend the conventional model of FDI determinants to accommodate the role of trade agreements. Fitting Indonesian data to this model, we discover strong evidence that, while both bilateral and multilateral trade agreements positively influence Indonesia’s FDI, multilateral agreements have a larger effect. We further distinguish FDI by sector and find sector-specific trade agreements play an active role: these agreements positively influence FDI in the primary and service sectors, but not in the manufacturing sector. We also find that trade agreements positively influence FDI through the export and total factor productivity channels, and less so through the economic growth channel.     

Protection and Trade in Services: A Survey

This paper surveys the literature on trade in services, focusing on the policies that are used to restrict such trade, the gains from liberalization, and the institutional mechanisms that have been adopted in the pursuit of liberalization. The paper argues that technological progress and international trade negotiations are likely to keep liberalization of trade in services a high profile policy issue. It also suggests that the research agenda should focus on developing better estimates of the welfare costs of protectionism in the service sector.     

西部现代服务业主导产业选择——基于技术进步的视角

一个地区在其现代服务业的发展过程中,如何因地制宜地选择和培育现代服务业主导产业是其在经济发展过程中需要认真思考的问题。文章从技术进步的视角出发,在对我国西部地区服务业各细分行业进行资本存量估算的基础上,分析和测度服务业各细分行业的全要素生产率(TFP)和技术进步率,并建立现代服务业主导产业的选择指标体系,采用因子分析法对各指标体系进行实证分析,最终确定批发零售贸易和餐饮业、房地产业、信息传输及计算机服务和软件业、租赁和商务服务业、交通运输及仓储和邮政业、卫生及体育和社会福利业为我国西部地区现代服务业主导产业。     

Heterogeneous Productivity and the Gains from Trade and FDI

Nontraded goods account for a major share of GDP in most economies, but have not been incorporated in the welfare analysis of monopolistic-competition models with heterogeneous productivity. This paper extends Helpman, Melitz and Yeaple (American Economic Review 94(1):300–316, 2004) to explore welfare effects in the presence of a nontraded good. We derive new analytical results about how the gains from trade and FDI are determined and affected by key parameters in the case of symmetric countries. The model is calibrated to a country group that includes all major developed countries. The gains from openness (trade and FDI) are found to be substantial (between 3.24 and 6.27 per cent of income) even if nontraded goods represent a major part of the economy. Most of these gains are attributed to trade rather than FDI.     

Effects on China and ASEAN of the ASEAN-China FTA: The FDI perspective

The ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) is a significant step in regional economic integration for both China and the ASEAN countries. While analysis of the effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) most commonly focuses on the trade effects, the closeness of the link between trade and investment implies that the effect of an FTA on foreign direct investment (FDI) is also potentially significant. FTAs may stimulate FDI through the effects of market expansion and vertical fragmentation, while they may also reduce FDI through a plant rationalization effect. The overall effect of an FTA on FDI flows is an empirical question. This paper examines the impact of ACFTA on FDI flows through an econometric model that captures the influence of East Asian production networks on FDI, which we expect to be an important explanatory factor. The model finds that ACFTA has a significant and positive effect on FDI flows. A brief survey of the theoretical literature on the welfare and other related effects of FDI serves to emphasize that the extent to which individual member countries of the ACFTA will benefit from this increase in FDI will depend in important ways on the policies pursued in each country.