Macroprudential policy in the EU: A political economy perspective

In response to the lessons of the global financial crisis, macroprudential policy is now firmly established as a financial policy area to prevent excessive risk taking in the financial sector and mitigate its effects on the real economy. However, macroprudential policy is facing several challenges relating to its political sensitivity and institutional context. These include political and interest group resistance, weaknesses in the governance framework, and limited institutional memory among policy makers. This article seeks to contribute to the contextual understanding of macroprudential policy by exploring how factors relating to these challenges influence policy in the EU. More specifically, it develops and empirically tests a number of hypotheses on how wider institutional and structural factors influence the actual use of macroprudential measures across Europe. The findings yield considerable support for theoretical predictions that institutions and contexts matter - Political pressure and interest group resistance tend to influence the intensity of macroprudential policy stances. Weaker policy stances characterise countries where banking systems depend on domestic banks, whereas the opposite holds for financial systems with significant market shares of other financial intermediaries. Results on institutional arrangements show that governance arrangements on relating to transparency influence policy stances. The results also indicate that policy makers' inertia is best counteracted by appointing a single macroprudential authority. The results differ somewhat depending on whether countries are based in the Euro zone or not. This suggests that policy frameworks that are multi-layered and complex pose tricky conundrums on how to ensure sufficient institutional autonomy, policy capacity and discretion among macroprudential authorities. This also has implications on other policy areas macroprudential policy, such as microprudential policy, crisis management and fiscal policy.     

Competition and Collusion in Dealer Markets

This article develops a game-theoretic model to analyze market makers' intertemporal pricing strategies. We show that dealers who adopt noncooperative pricing strategies may set bid-ask spreads above competitive levels. This form of “implicit collusion” differs from explicit collusion, where dealers cooperate to fix prices. Price discreteness or asymmetric information are not required for collusion to occur. Rather, institutional arrangements that restrict access to the order flow are important determinants of the ability to collude because they reduce dealers' incentives to compete on price. Public policy efforts to increase interdealer competition should focus on such restrictions.     

Intervention from an information perspective

This paper surveys some important recent developments, which have the common theme of interpreting intervention in terms of its effects on the flow of information. The article considers the role of information in generating expectations, the formation of trading rules, price discovery, and the importance of institutional arrangements for the implementation of intervention policy. Suggestions for future research directions are discussed.     

Retail payments: New contributions,empirical results,and unanswered questions

We offer a selected survey of retail payments and suggest areas where additional research would prove useful. After summarizing eight papers presented at a recent Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) payment conference and published in this volume, we show how they, and many of the other papers presented there, have contributed to the payments literature. We also illustrate how institutional and other differences across countries led to different payment arrangements historically which now, due to technological innovation affecting bank costs, have made payment arrangements across countries more homogeneous.     

Institutional Arrangements and Inflation Bias: A Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Approach

The paper investigates whether the institutional arrangements that determine the conduct of monetary and prudential policies influence policymakers' actions in pursuing their designated mandates. Employing recently developed dynamic heterogeneous panel methods and using data for 25 industrialized countries from 1960 to 2018, we empirically assess whether central banks' main objective of inflation stability is compromised when assigned with both policy mandates manifested as inflation bias. Our results show that, once we appropriately control for relevant policy and institutional factors, the separation of macroprudential regulation and monetary policy does not have a significant effect on inflation outcomes.     

Toward Transparency: New Approaches and Their Application to Financial Markets

The Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s not only highlightedthe welfare consequences of transparency in the financial sectorbut also linked this relatively narrow problem to the broadercontext of transparency in governance. It has been observedthat objections to transparency, often on flimsy pretexts, arecommon even in industrialized countries. This article arguesthat transparency is indispensable to the financial sector anddescribes its desirable characteristics: access, timeliness,relevance, and quality. The authors emphasize the need to weighthe costs and benefits of a more transparent regulatory policy,and they explore the connection between information imperfections,macroeconomic policy, and questions of risk. The article arguesfor developing institutional infrastructure, standards, andaccounting practices that promote transparency, implementingincentives for disclosure and establishing regulations to minimizethe perverse incentives generated by safety net arrangements,such as deposit insurance. Because institutional developmentis gradual, the authors contend that relatively simple regulations,such as limits on credit expansion, may be the most reasonableoption for developing countries. They show that transparencyhas absolute limits because of the lack of adequate enforcementand argue that adequate enforcement may be predicated on broaderreforms in the public sector.      

Market failure fallacies and accounting information

Proponents of increased regulation of accounting maintain that there are failures in the private market for accounting information. In this paper, it is argued that market failure theories contain a logical fallacy. The optima identified in those theories are not optima because they are defined independently of institutional arrangements necessary to attain them. Existing institutional arrangements, such as markets, should not be condemned until it can be shown that there is an alternative regime which can produce socially superior output.The paper examines theories which explicitly allege that there are failures in the private market for accounting information. In addition, early criticisms of accounting information are restated in economic terms, and it is revealed that those criticisms implicitly assume that private production of accounting information suffers from market failures. The paper concludes by suggesting that, if accounting research is to contribute to public policy formulation, researchers should focus on evaluating the type of information that can be produced by feasible regimes such as markets or government agencies.     

资源依赖、制度安排与区域创新能力 —基于空间杜宾模型

区域创新能力提升是我国加快建设创新型国家、实现高质量发展的现实需求。 本文通过构建涵盖资源依赖、制度安排与区域创新能力的理论模型分析其内在关系并提出假 说,运用2000-2016年全国30个省（区、市）的面板数据与空间杜宾模型,检验三者之间的影 响及空间溢出效应。研究结果表明：（1）资源依赖程度越高,越不利于本地区创新能力提升;（2）有效率的制度安排对区域创新能力有正向促进作用;（3）从空间溢出效应来看,本地区 资源依赖程度越高,越抑制周边地区区域创新能力提升,有效的制度安排能助推周边地区创新能力提高。     

世界银行CGAP《金融可获性报告2010》中对各国金融消费者保护的评估

《金融可获性报告2010》就不同司法管辖下的金融消费者保护情况对全球范围内的金融监管者进行了调查,并首次对140多个经济的消费保护政策进行了梳理,内容主要包括：各经济体的消费者保护立法的法律框架,消费者保护所涉及的各部门的制度安排,以及消费者保护的争端解决机制,这些都为未来的研究建立了基础。     

Deepening Democracy or Élite Governance? New Political Management Arrangements in Local Government

This article discusses the introduction of new political management arrangements in local government. It places the Government's current proposals for change in the context of recent research and debate about the strengths and weaknesses of local democracy, and then draws on recent research evidence, which suggests that current reforms may have a contradictory impact. The Government's proposals are likely to bring tighter and more strategic political leadership, more effective partnership with other local organizations and, if certain steps are taken, better 'scrutiny' of policy and performance. However, there are serious concerns about democratic accountability and transparency, community involvement and the implications for many councillors, party groups and a healthy local party politics. It is concluded that more thorough evaluation of the impact of the changes is desirable.     

Enhancing the efficiency of securities markets in East Asia

We explore the relative efficiency of stock markets across countries using newly available data on transactions costs and the quality of the informational environment of stock markets. These new measures are constructed from firm-level stock returns in a panel of 60 countries for the period 2000–2004. We develop a framework to understand the linkages between efficiency, liquidity, transactions costs, and informational quality and then study their determinants. We find that some institutional arrangements – such as the availability of stock lending and short selling – and the openness of markets are associated with lower transactions costs. We also find that, although disclosure rules for directors and officers of listed firms are essential, the ability of shareholders to seek redress is more conducive to a better informational environment in stock markets. This in turn serves as the basis for policy recommendations for the East Asian region. In particular, the region needs to continue to strengthen the implementation and enforcement of corporate governance, to further enhance the market and institutional infrastructure, and focus on measures to foster a larger and more diversified investor base, in order to continue to see gains in the efficiency of stock markets.     

What foresight! Understanding Australia's housing future

Futures analysis has been little used to inform housing policy debate, despite the fact that historical precedent is becoming increasingly limited as a guide for policy direction. This paper examines the potential utility of ‘strategic foresight’ in considering possible housing futures for Australia. It examines the particular foresight methods employed, and processes used, to develop possible housing futures in the year 2025 and their policy implications. The paper concludes that foresight analysis, although not without its problems, creates the opportunity to move beyond current thinking and ‘path dependent’ policy parameters, enabling discussion of housing futures in a way that prompts critical discussion of the institutional arrangements and policies that shape housing policy in the present.     

Which popular predictor is more useful to forecast international stock markets during the coronavirus pandemic: VIX vs EPU?

This study mainly investigates which predictors (VIX or EPU index) are useful to forecast future volatility for 19 equity indices based on HAR framework during coronavirus pandemic. Out-of-sample analysis shows that the HAR-RV-VIX model exhibits superior forecasting performance for 12 stock markets, while EPU index just can improve forecast accuracy for 5 equity indices, implying that VIX index is more useful for most stock markets' future volatility during coronavirus crisis. The results are robust in recursive window method, alternative realized measures and sub-sample analysis; moreover, VIX index still contains the strongest predictive ability by considering kitchen sink model and mean combination forecast. Furthermore, we further discuss the predictive effect of VIX and EPU index before the coronavirus crisis. Our article provides policy makers, researchers and investors with new insights into exploiting the predictive ability of VIX and EPU index for international stock markets during coronavirus pandemic.     

老年残疾人家庭支持政策研究述评

随着人口预期寿命的延长和现代社会风险程度加剧,老年残疾问题日益凸显。在我国机构照料和社区照料供给严重不足、且老年残疾人对照料服务支付能力低下的基本国情下,家庭照护成为老年残疾人照料的主要方式之一。然而,随着家庭规模缩小与家庭结构改变,家庭对于老年残疾人的照护能力逐渐削弱。老年残疾对家庭成员的生活产生很大影响,老年残疾加剧了老年人残疾人对家庭的依赖程度。因此,如何完善老年残疾人家庭支持政策以提升家庭照料能力,完善家庭保障在社会保障体系中的积极作用,已成为当前社会政策需要面临的紧迫问题。本文试图从老年残疾人家庭政策的概念界定、发展状况、现阶段存在的问题、对策建议这几个方面,对国内外学者关于老年残疾人家庭支持政策的相关研究进行梳理和评析。     

城市商业银行股权结构改革的制度经济学解释

产权结构的优化依然是城市商业银行完善公司治理、提高银行经营效率的决定因素。城市商业银行制度演变的逻辑起点,决定了地方政府对城市商业银行的绝对控制权的掌握,进而决定了城市商业银行产权制度安排的非效率特征,也决定了城市商业银行的产权结构改革的趋势。正是城市商业银行的产权结构的制度安排现状,成为产权制度强制性变迁的路径依赖。"金股"机制前提下的多元化股权制度安排,不失为城市商业银行产权变迁的政策切入点。     

Political contributions and analyst behavior

We show that the personal traits of analysts, as revealed by their political donations, influence their forecasting behavior and stock prices. Analysts who contribute primarily to the Republican Party adopt a more conservative forecasting style. Their earnings forecast revisions are less likely to deviate from the forecasts of other analysts and are less likely to be bold. Their stock recommendations also contain more modest upgrades and downgrades. Overall, these analysts produce better quality research, which is recognized and rewarded by their employers, institutional investors, and the media. Stock market participants, however, do not fully recognize their superior ability as the market reaction following revisions by these analysts is weaker.     

UK policy coordination: the importance of institutional design

This paper considers the principles that underpin the design of the UK's macroeconomic framework, with particular emphasis on the importance of good institutional design in ensuring effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy when an independent Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has operational responsibility for setting interest rates. The theoretical literature on policy coordination finds that the cost of central bank independence is less monetary‐fiscal coordination. We argue that once account is taken of the institutional arrangements, this conclusion does not hold for the UK. In fact, the UK macroeconomic policy framework represents a significant improvement in policy coordination through mechanisms that allow for greater transparency and accountability in policy‐making. Among the measures discussed in the paper is the role of the Treasury Representative on the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee.     

Futures of privacy protection: A framework for creating scenarios of institutional change

The future of privacy is a topical issue in the context of debates on mass surveillance and the increasing prevalence of social media sites in everyday life. Previous scenario studies on privacy have focused on macro trends and on forecasting technological developments, and claims about causal influences have remained implicit. This article presents an alternative approach for constructing scenarios of privacy protection. The article focuses on privacy protection as a social institution and builds on the theory of gradual institutional change. The article presents a scenario framework which includes three stages: (1) outlining the dynamics of privacy protection, (2) tracing historical processes and constructing a causal narrative, and (3) creating event-based scenarios. The resulting scenarios are narratives of plausible chains of events which are based on the results of the previous stages. The key difference to typical scenario approaches is the focus on specific actors and types of event sequences in privacy protection. The argument is that by lowering the level of abstraction in this way, researchers and decision-makers can gain a more profound understanding of possible future challenges in privacy protection and of key leverage points in the institutional change process.     

Institutional determinants of capital structure adjustment speeds

Many authors relate a firm's performance to legal and political features and the regulatory environment in which it operates. This article compares firms' capital structure adjustments across countries and investigates whether institutional differences help explain the variance in estimated adjustment speeds. We find that legal and financial traditions significantly correlate with firm adjustment speeds. More narrowly, institutional features also relate to adjustment speeds, consistent with the hypothesis that better institutions lower the transaction costs associated with adjusting a firm's leverage. Such associations between institutional arrangements and leverage adjustment speeds are consistent with the dynamic trade-off theory of capital structure choice.