Valuing options for reserve water in the Fitzroy Basin*

Option values may be an important component of non‐use values when development options for environmental assets are considered. These are values that the community might hold for maintaining options to make future choices about allocating resources. However, option values are very difficult to define, at both theoretical and practical levels, and there has been a retreat over the past decade to the more inclusive concept of option prices. In the present paper, estimates of option values are reported for retaining unallocated water in reserve rather than using it for current development. The use of option values rather than option prices is justified on the basis that the focus is on non‐use values, and demand and supply uncertainties have been minimised. These values have been assessed through a series of nine choice modelling surveys that have been conducted over a 3‐year period in the Fitzroy River Basin in central Queensland. The results are then extrapolated to the case study areas within the basin to assess whether unallocated water should be held in reserve or used for development.     

Impacts of changing water inflow distributions on irrigation and farm income along the Drâa River in Morocco

Irrigation water is essential for agriculture in the arid Drâa River basin in Morocco but climate change leads to increasingly unreliable water supply in the area. This article analyzes impacts of changing water inflow distributions on irrigation and farm income extending a conjunctive river basin model toward a stochastic modeling approach. Regional climate scenarios are used to derive a maximum likelihood density estimate of current and future water supplies. Based on these distributions, Monte Carlo simulations are performed to obtain stochastic model results on surface and groundwater irrigation as well as economic indicators for six oases along the river. The probability of farmers to receive revenues below the subsistence level is around 2% under current conditions, but this is likely to rise to rates of 6% to 15% depending on the underlying climate change scenario. The composition of water sources for irrigation will shift to more groundwater use. The river basin model is able to represent complex spatial interactions between oases as well as a partial complementarity between groundwater and surface water irrigation due to salinity management effects. Interestingly, the value of groundwater is not necessarily increasing under future climatic conditions as salinity problems are aggravated with expanded groundwater use.     

我国流域水管理法律体制的演变与发展

依据水事四法、流域立法、国家政策和改革实践,对我国流域水管理法律体制的演变和发展进行了历史分析和定性评价,指出我国流域水管理从最初的区域管理体制,演变为流域管理与区域管理相结合的体制,目前仍然处于变革之中。近年来的流域管理机构改革强化了流域管理,河长制的实施强化了区域管理与科层协调,环境监管体制改革要求在生态环保部门建立流域管理机构,国务院和地方政府机构改革则优化了多部门区域管理;这些先后实施的政策和措施之间缺乏统筹,使流域管理与区域管理相结合的体制出现了一定程度的割裂,需要通过进一步的改革予以健全和完善。     

Evaluating participation in WFD river basin management in England and Wales: Processes,communities, outputs and outcomes

Participatory environmental governance is increasing worldwide. One area where such governance forms are apparent is in the management of water resources. For example, in the European Union the Water Framework Directive mandates several forms of involvement via its legal obligations. Under the Directive, implementing agencies should provide information on river basin management planning to the public, consult citizens and stakeholders during planning and actively involve interested parties in the plan process. Yet questions arise over the success of participatory processes on the ground in EU member states. In this study, participation was therefore evaluated in WFD river basin planning in England and Wales using process, community, output and outcome-related indicators. Research was conducted through extensive quantitative and qualitative data collection over a long temporal scale within case analyses of the Anglian, Humber and South West river basin districts. Results suggest that while the first phase of river basin management largely met legal requirements, the actual success of participatory water governance was mixed. On this basis, recommendations are made for enhancing participation in future river basin planning through national and EU policy.     

The introduction of Entry Level Stewardship in England: Extension or dilution in agri-environment policy?

Agri-environment schemes were introduced in the mid-1980s. Their primary objectives have developed from initially aiming to hold back intensification towards stimulating environmental enhancement. The introduction of Entry Level Stewardship (ELS) in England represents a third stage in seeking to extend the coverage of schemes across the majority of agricultural land. This aims to influence land use along the whole of the intensive margin. The ELS offers a wide range of options for which farmers are awarded points. Selection of options equivalent to 30 points per ha in lowland areas entitles farmers to a payment of £30 per ha. By September 2007, 4.4 million ha had been entered into the scheme, equivalent to 47% of the agricultural area. From amongst the options on offer, 34% of points were for boundary options, 20% for intensive grass options, 16% for management plans and 13% for options taking arable land out of production. The choice of options varies across the country with a higher proportion of the agricultural area entered in the East. Entry into the scheme is associated with total agricultural area, cereals farming, larger farms, a lower proportion of area in Environmentally Sensitive Area and Countryside Stewardship schemes and grazing livestock numbers. While the ELS has introduced a large number of new entrants into agri-environment schemes, the extent of the environmental impact is uncertain. Given the large number of options available, it is likely that farmers will have chosen options that involve relatively little change and incur limited cost. At the same time, it would be surprising if the environmental gains were of the types most valued within local areas. The ELS approach implies that public goods provided from agricultural land should be paid for irrespective of what would have happened in the absence of the scheme. While this may be a fairer approach, it may also undermine the idea of land stewardship and imply that payments will continue to be required in the long term in order to sustain provision. The ELS does establish a framework within which incentives could be targeted to deliver specific benefits within particular contexts and suggestions are made as to how policy might be developed for this.     

Piloting a systematic framework for public investment in regional natural resource management: Dryland salinity in Australia

The Salinity Investment Framework (SIF3) is designed to help environmental managers make better policy decisions about protecting key assets under threat of dryland salinity, a major degradation problem in Australia. This study reports results from applying SIF3 in partnership with two regional organizations (in the states of Victoria and Western Australia) with contrasting institutional powers and structures. We also engaged relevant policy makers with a view to influencing national policy. Available knowledge, science, and data were used to develop region-specific recommendations for public investment in salinity management. SIF3 proved easy to apply, requiring minimal changes from its original version. Establishing trust and credibility with stakeholders was extremely important. More time was required to be spent on communicating what SIF3 was and what it would mean for stakeholders than in applying it in the catchments. In both regions, recommendations included making a clear distinction between localized assets (such as a particular wetland) and dispersed assets (such as agricultural land as a whole); more targeted investment in spatially identified localized assets; using a broader range of policy tools; basing recommendations on the levels of public and private net benefits; anticipating the adoptability of sustainable land-management practices; and formally integrating relevant scientific, economic and social information with community values. The differences between current action and recommendations were significant in both regions, particularly in Victoria. As a result of our work both regions have decided to implementing a similar asset-based approach covering various environmental threats in addition to dryland salinity. The research indicates that it is feasible to use decision frameworks such as SIF3 to improve the rigour of decision making by community-based environmental management organizations. A broader range of policy tools are needed for dryland salinity, with less reliance on extension and small grants, and more emphasis on intervention around key assets and investment in technology development. We have influenced policy makers to some extent at state level and nationally through discussion of SIF3 in a national inquiry, preparation of a policy paper for peak multi-government policy committees, briefings and provision of advice on policy design. Despite this, achieving significant policy change at the state and national levels remains difficult for a number of reasons. Governments give limited signals to environmental managers to achieve environmental outcomes, being more concerned with community participation objectives and political considerations. We hope for significant policy change with increased scrutiny about sound decision making and public accountability.     

Evaluating combined land conservation benefits from perennial pasture: lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) for management of dryland salinity and herbicide resistance in Western Australia*

The inclusion of perennial pasture phases in cropping rotations has been widely promoted throughout Australia for reducing the incidence of dryland salinity. To a lesser extent, they have also been promoted to enhance the management of herbicide‐resistant weeds. No previous economic analysis of perennial pasture has considered both of these benefits. This study combines a dynamic linear programming model to estimate the magnitude of salinity‐related benefits and a complex simulation model to assess the economics of herbicide‐resistance management. We present a case study of the perennial pasture lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) in the Wheatbelt of Western Australia, where the weed annual ryegrass (Lolium rigidum Gaudin) is resistant to multiple herbicide groups. Sequences incorporating lucerne are the most profitable land use at the standard set of parameter values if (i) annual ryegrass is resistant to all selective herbicides, (ii) the water table is so shallow (approximately < 3.5 m deep) that frequent rotation with perennials is required to avert soil salinisation, (iii) sheep production is highly profitable, or (iv) there is a combination of less extreme cases. The value of perennial pasture is sufficient under these circumstances to overcome its high establishment cost and the displacement of multiple years of crop. Consideration of dryland salinity and herbicide resistance are about equally important in evaluating the economics of lucerne; neither should be neglected.     

绿水资源研究进展及评述

[目的]基于蓝水绿水概念,综述总结国内外绿水资源的研究进展和发展趋势,以期为国内绿水模拟和绿水管理研究提供相关参考依据。[方法]通过文献分析法和比较归纳法,阐述了绿水资源在水资源评估规划中的重要作用和开发利用潜力,评价了国内外绿水模拟的研究方法、研究进展与局限性因素,分析了气候变化和人类活动对绿水资源的影响,探讨了流域绿水管理的基本理念与应用发展。[结果](1)绿水资源表示水循环通过降水渗透入土壤非饱和层并由植物蒸腾或土壤蒸发返回大气层的水汽,是农业作物生产的重要基础,但是通常被传统流域水资源管理所忽视。(2)绿水模拟分析结果表明,全球尺度的陆地水资源总量中绿水资源平均占65%,全球尺度农业用地(作物生产期)的绿水资源比例平均占82%,因此绿水的开发利用潜力相对较大,忽视绿水资源量可能会低估水资源可用性。(3)绿水参数率定、遥感ET数据校准、时空尺度转换和不确定性分析等关键问题是提升绿水模拟精度的重点研究方向。(4)基于气候变化和人类活动影响下,水资源稳定性相对减弱的可能趋势,将绿水纳入流域水资源管理体系,有利于客观评估水资源量,能够为应对解决水缺乏、水波动与水冲突等水资源问题拓宽思路。(5)绿水管理是合理优化配置流域蓝水绿水资源,协调平衡流域整体社会经济与生态环境效益,且兼顾上下游公平效率的新型流域水资源开发管理模式。[结论]应对水资源问题的两个基本方向即“开源节流”,绿水资源作为开源的重要方向,绿水管理作为节流的基本措施,理应受到重点关注。绿水概念和绿水管理是在水量平衡基础上,实现流域水资源合理优化配置及高效利用的可行途径。     

Faustmann vs. real options theory – An experimental investigation of foresters’ harvesting decisions

Among the most complex decisions in forestry is the decision of when to harvest a stand. Many investment theories have been established and adjusted to maximize profit, yet limited knowledge is available regarding the predictive power of theories. Understanding foresters’ harvesting behavior, however, is important for forest management and policy support. Thus, the question arises as to what extent risky harvesting decisions comply with economic theories. Therefore, we conduct an incentive-based economic experiment with 107 forestry decision makers in order to analyze this research question. This approach is well-established in the field of behavioral economics since it has the advantage of analyzing certain economic parameters isolated from further aspects of the decision situation. We use the Faustmann–Pressler–Ohlin theorem and a real options approach as normative benchmarks. The present study provides evidence that none of the examined theories fully comply with the observed behavior. However, the harvesting behavior coincides significantly more with the real options theory than with the Faustmann–Pressler–Ohlin theorem. It can thus be stated that a higher degree of education leads to decisions that are more in accordance with the real options theory.     

淮河流域行蓄洪区灾害损失评估数据库建设与数据更新

以GIS为设计工具,对淮河流域行蓄洪区灾害损失快速评估数据库建设进行设计,研究灾害损失评估数据库的数据采集、加工和更新。研究认为,行蓄洪区灾害损失数据库建设包括数据库内容、数据来源与处理、Geodatabase模型构建,以及数据库管理与整理等关键工作内容;数据库建设完成后的数据采集、加工和更新主体和路径要以淮河流域当前管理体制为依托,以淮河流域当前各项数据统计路径为载体进行。     

Size matters: Optimal management of dynamic systems with varying size

Many natural and economic systems are managed to deliver the highest benefits to society but are subject to regime shifts. We specifically consider the variability of the size of the system itself as a key driver of a regime shift. We address the question of how the optimal management of these systems should vary with its size. Put simply, certain management options might work when the system is of a given size, while others might be preferred when the system has grown or shrunk. In this paper, we develop a model that allows us to analyse the effect of the size of the system on its optimal management. We apply this model to a case of water pollution in a reservoir/lake that varies in size over time: sometimes the lake is deep and sometimes it is shallow. Numerical simulations were conducted to compare optimal management of the reservoir with and without explicitly modelling its size variation. The findings show that the overall social costs of optimally managing pollution are significantly smaller when the variability in size is taken into account. This is due to differences in the timing and magnitude of the optimal control. The key implication is that the variability of the size of a system should be explicitly considered in this type of management problems.     

Dryland salinity: economic, scientific, social and policy dimensions

A broad range of information relevant to salinity is reviewed in order to critically evaluate existing and prospective policy responses. The review includes issues of hydrogeology, farmer perceptions and preferences, farm-level economics of salinity management practices, spill-over benefits and costs from salinity management, and politics.
The technical challenge of preventing salinity is far greater than previously recognised. The farm-level economics of currently available management practices for salinity prevention are adverse in many situations. Off-site benefits from on-farm practices are often small and long delayed. Past national salinity policies have been seriously flawed. While current policy proposals include positive elements, they have not sufficiently escaped from the past.     

太湖水量分配方案实施保障措施探讨

分析近几年环太湖河流出入湖逐日水量,依据各河道出入湖水量所占比例,提出近期在环太湖出入湖主要河流分别建设17个水资源自动测报站点,即可控制80%以上的出入湖水量,通过建立并完善太湖水资源预报和监控系统,为太湖水量分配方案的顺利实施奠定坚实的基础,为流域水资源统一管理提供科学依据。     

黄河流域民主参与式的水资源统一管理

针对黄河流域水资源管理存在逐利、水资源被分割管理，以及缺乏民主参与等问题，提出黄河干流及其主要支流实行水资源统一管理，成立利益相关者参与的民主管理监督机构。     

鄂尔多斯盆地能源的综合开发利用

鄂尔多斯盆地横跨陕、甘、宁、蒙、晋五省区 ,是一个富含石油、天然气、煤炭及砂岩性铀矿的大型综合能源盆地。盆地内能源矿产已开始开发 ,并且交通运输条件、供水条件、供电条件、投融资条件尚能保证其能源综合开发利用 ,惟区域社会经济状况不佳是其制约条件。该盆地完全可以成为我国未来能源接替战略基地。应加强对盆地资源的统一规划和管理、综合勘探开发 ,在开发过程中注意环境保护 ,并实施投融资主体多元化     

Preferences over the timing of forest resource use

The objective of this study is to evaluate preferences for time paths of outputs arising from alternative forest management practices. A discrete choice framework using logit and mixed logit models is used to evaluate stated choices by Public Advisory Committee members over attributes regarding inter-temporal forest management options. Results of the study indicate a relatively strong preference for physical sustainability, or even flow choices. However, respondents appear to be more accepting of uneven flows in recreation services than they are of uneven flows of timber harvests. Results also provide yet another illustration of a difference in implied rates of discount over the goods involved (i. e. timber versus recreation). The paper illustrates a mechanism for use in public involvement exercises that may identify inter-temporal preferences over forest management plans and strategies.     

Stuck in a rut: emerging cocoa cooperatives in Peru and the factors that influence their performance

Agri-cooperatives play an important role in helping resource-poor farmers reach high-value markets. In addition to linking smallholders to markets, cooperatives provide their members with various services, such as extension, credit, input subsidies, and social programmes. While the literature contains many examples of success, there has been limited discussion on the often long and turbulent process by which cooperatives develop over time and the viable options for shortcuts. This study examines four emerging cocoa cooperatives in Peru to determine their overall business viability, the key factors that advanced their development, and their capacity to address the needs of their members. Our findings suggest that strategies for supporting cooperative development have largely failed to address major internal weaknesses and the challenges posed in the external environment. The cooperatives have received time-bound, uncoordinated, and often small-scale, interventions, which have focused on infrastructure expansion and technical assistance. Important areas related to business management and governance structures, trust relationships with buyers, and sufficient working capital have largely been ignored. Shortcuts may be achieved through improvements in access to business development and financial services, deeper engagement by private sector to support the development process, and commitment by stakeholders to monitoring and critical reflection for strategy refinement.     

What Do Farmers Want From Agri‐Environmental Scheme Design? A Choice Experiment Approach

Agri‐environmental schemes (AES) have had a limited effect on European agriculture due to farmers’ reluctance to participate. Information on how farmers react when AES characteristics are modified can be an important input to the design of such policies. This article investigates farmers’ preferences for different design options in a specific AES aimed at encouraging nitrogen fixing crops in marginal dry‐land areas in Spain. We use a choice experiment survey conducted in two regions (Aragón and Andalusia). The analysis employs an error component random parameter logit model allowing for preference heterogeneity and correlation amongst the non‐status quo alternatives. Farmers show a strong preference for maintaining their current management strategies; however, significant savings in cost or increased participation can be obtained by modifying some AES attributes.     

湿地生态系统健康评估指标体系研究

湿地生态系统健康是指生态系统随着时间的进程有活力并且能维持其组织结构及自主性，在外界胁迫下容易恢复；评估湿地生态系统健康的标准有活力、恢复力、组织、生态系统服务功能的雏持、管理选择、外部输入减少、对邻近系统的影响及人类健康影响等8个方面，建立生态系统健康评估指标的第一步是指标选择原则的确定；根据生态系统健康评估的目的和指标筛选的原则，寻求对管理景观中的湿地生态系统健康进行整体性评估的合适指标。     

勘查阶段属性渐变规律及其现实意义

矿产勘查分阶段管理是世界各国通行的做法。在我国,对地质工作属性则是不分阶段、笼而统之地进行定义。同时,不同时期又有不同的认识。整整半个多世纪对地质工作属性的定义,几乎是从一个极端走到了另一个极端。笔者则认为,矿产勘查作为地质工作三阶段的中间环节,存在一个从预查、普查、详查到勘探四个阶段的属性渐变规律,即研究性递减、施工性递增的变化规律。因而,地质科研人员对找矿的智力贡献应分阶段兑现和采取预设期权的方式兑现。