个人住房按揭贷款风险防范

当个人住房按揭贷款作为一项低风险业务处于上升期时，房贷风险容易被不断扩大的贷款基数所稀释、掩盖．而房贷一旦紧缩．该业务中存在的问题和风险就将逐步释放出来。从国外银行的经验分析，房贷风险一般在贷款发放后的3～8年中显现出来。因此，正确分析当前个人住房按揭贷款业务的发展趋势，把握好业务发展与风险防范的关系．尤其是在银行内部加强管理、严密环节、强化制约，架构起个人住房按揭贷款业务风险防范体系，是亟待解决的一个问题。     

建设银行发展个人房贷业务的政策建议

个人房贷业务所处的经营环境日益复杂，房价高位继续上涨蕴含一定市场风险，房贷业务是收缩还是继续快速发展存在着不同声音；国家宏观调控力度不断增强，服从国家宏观调控和坚持自我发展之间矛盾加大；在同业竞争日趋激烈大背景下，如何尽快培育和提升未来竞争力从而赢得先机，如何看待和处理好这些问题成为个人房贷业务发展的关键。     

当前银行个人房贷风险分析

从防范风险的角度来讲，商业银行收紧、乃至于停止办理个人房贷业务，都是无可厚非的。但目前银行的做法似乎有“矫枉过正”之嫌。因为就目前的情况来看，个人房贷的不良率尚不足百分之一，同其他贷款两位数的不良率相比，实在微不足道。而且考虑到个人房贷抵押房屋的易监控性、住房抵押和保险公司保险的双重保障以及一年一定的浮动利率，银行办理个人房贷业务风险不大。从这一角度来看，银行如果过分夸大个人房贷的风险，并因此而畏首畏尾，裹足不前，只能白白错过发展的最好时机。     

对房贷新政下加快个人贷款业务有效发展的思考

房贷业务是各家商业银行个贷业务的主体业务。房贷新政条件下,一方面银行房贷收紧,另一方面抑制了需求者的购房热情。本文结合达州农行实际,就如何充分认识自身优势,深度挖掘市场潜力,突出重点产品,力推热点产品,有效控制风险,确保个贷业务稳健发展作了有益探讨。     

防范个人房贷操作风险对策

—要坚持有效发展的方针,正确处理业务拓展和风险防范的关系。首先,对现行相关个人房贷业务规定进行学习,领会其操作要点。其次．加强对从业人员尽职调查和合规文化教育。加强对个人房贷潜在风险预警和监测．防止各类市场风险、政策风险和操作风险的发生,把“风险防范至上”、“合规是效益”的理念贯穿每笔业务过程中。二要认真落实银监会《商业银行房地产风险管理指引》的要求,     

房贷抵押权实现的风险及防范

随着上海浦发银行巨额虚假个人住房贷款事件冰山一角的浮出,房地产信贷风险引起了各界的广泛关注。房贷的火热场面掩盖不了房贷抵押权实现时存在的风险隐患。商业银行应该正视房贷抵押权实现中存在的风险,并采取积极的应对举措,从而使房贷业务健康持续有效发展。     

上海农行房地产信贷的现状、风险与防范

房地产信贷业务一直是我行的一项重点工作。在力求控制风险的同时，我行的房贷业务取得了比较健康合理的发展。     

严防个人房贷风险的三要点

随着房地产市场的不断活跃，投资、投机成份的增多，个人房贷款风险也不断隐现，为此，必须始终坚持贯彻“积极稳妥地开展个人房贷业务”的指导思想，严格执行个贷的有关政策、规范操作程序，审慎发放贷款，并加强贷后管理和检查、督促的力度，确保每笔业务合规、合法。在拓展个人房贷业务中笔者之见，要重在落实风险管理“三要点”。     

商业银行“假房贷“的识别和风险防范

我国商业银行个人住房贷款业务近几年取得了长足的进步,但"假房贷"所引发的经营风险严重阻碍了该项业务的健康发展.本文分析了"假房贷"的概念和特征,并从宏观和微观两个层面对"假房贷"的风险防范提出了对策和建议.     

房贷零售按揭业务中的风险控制

房贷零售按揭业务的客户群体源于房贷按揭项目,营销针对的市场主体明确,产品风险较低,目前阶段各行产品的同质性较高,营销效率成为产品需求方选择合作银行的重要指标。由于效率是操作控制过程中细节积累的反映。本文从业务操作和风险控制的细节开始分析,对如何更有效率的选择风险控制措施,提高市场营销效率进行了探讨。制约房贷零售按揭业务营销效率的细节单纯追求营销效率是不尊重资产业务客观规律的做法,按照规章要求,必要的防范风险需要对营销效率产生的制约是合理的,不可简化的。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.