Officer retention and military spending: the rise of the military-industrial complex during the Second World War

This article examines how the regional distribution of US military personnel contributed to military expenditures around the country. We first discuss a theory of political economy for military spending—officers who remain in service can eventually help channel military funds and employment to their respective regions of origin, through direct military spending decisions or indirect political channels. Further, if officer retention is positively related to less industrialization at home (fewer work opportunities at home induce greater service lengths), this channel will induce greater progressiveness in military spending. To test these ideas we use the personnel records of officers serving in the US Navy from 1870 to the late 1930s. Tracking the tenure of all officers, we construct measures of ‘military representation’ across US counties. Through ordinary least squares, Tobit, and instrumental variable approaches, we find that senior naval officer representation across regions positively and robustly predicts regional naval spending (but not spending from other branches) during the Second World War.     

Misreporting of Government Transfers: How Important Are Survey Design and Geography?

Recent studies linking household surveys to administrative records reveal high rates of misreporting of program receipt. We use the FoodAPS survey to examine whether the findings of these studies of general household surveys using one or two states generalize to a survey with a narrow focus and across many states. First, we study how reporting errors differ from other surveys. We find a lower rate of false negatives (failures to report true receipt) in FoodAPS, likely partly due to the shorter recall period of FoodAPS. Misreporting varies with household characteristics and between interviewers. Second, we examine geographic heterogeneity in survey error to assess whether we can extrapolate from linked data from a few states. We find systematic differences between states in unconditional error rates but no evidence of substantial differences conditional on common covariates. Thus, extrapolating error rates across states may yield more accurate receipt estimates than uncorrected survey estimates.     

How did women count? A note on gender‐specific age heaping differences in the sixteenth to nineteenth centuries1

The role of human capital in economic growth is now largely uncontested. One indicator of human capital frequently used for the pre-1900 period is age heaping, which has been increasingly used to measure gender-specific differences. In this note, we find that in some historical samples, married women heap significantly less than unmarried women. This is still true after correcting for possible selection effects. A possible explanation is that a percentage of women adapted their ages to that of their husbands, hence biasing the Whipple index. We find the same effect to a lesser extent for men. Since this bias differs over time and across countries, a consistent comparison of female age heaping should be made by focusing on unmarried women.     

Economic returns to schooling in urban China: OLS and the instrumental variables approach

This paper examines economic returns to schooling in urban China using ordinary least square (OLS) and instrumental variable (IV) methodologies. First, we find that OLS estimates of the returns to education are lower in China than in other transition economies, whereas IV estimates are higher in China. Second, we find that OLS, a method for estimating the returns to education without control for endogeneity bias, may underestimate the true rates of return for men. In addition, if we do not control for endogeneity bias and the sample selection bias, we may further underestimate the true rates of return for women. Finally, we find that OLS estimates of the returns to education for men are slightly higher than for women. The IV estimates for women are higher than those for men, and this difference increases after correcting for selectivity biases.     

Labor market institutions and firms’ location choices

The paper evaluates the empirical effects of labor market institutions (LMI) on foreign direct investment (FDI) decisions using an individual dataset describing French firms’ expansion strategies in OECD countries over 1992–2002. First, we provide evidence that labor market institutions do matter in location decisions. Precisely, we show that labor market rigidity significantly reduces the country’s attractiveness for foreign investors. Yet, the effect is of limited magnitude compared to FDI determinants related to the country’s market potential or supply access. Second, we go deeper in the precise role of various LMI dimensions. In line with the literature, we find that stringent employment protection laws have a dampening effect on the location probability. Besides, we show that this is not the only dimension that matters. In particular, we find that the generosity of the unemployment benefit system plays a significant negative role on the country’s attractiveness, even once the role of employment protection is controlled for.     

Conflict heterogeneity in Africa

The economic development literature widely concurs that conflicts have adverse economic consequences that contribute to poverty, disinvestment and lower human capital leading to widespread inequality and lower economic growth. As such, understanding the nature of conflict has been an important focus for political leaders, policymakers and researchers alike. However, the existing literature does not typically distinguish between the effects of conflict determinants on conflicts by type of actor or aggressor (i.e. state, group and civilian-based). Using panel data analysis for 46 African countries from 1997 to 2017, and a comprehensive geo-referenced Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) conflict dataset, we find evidence of variation in the determinants' effects on conflicts by actor types. For the full sample of countries, we find that military expenditure decreases civilian-based conflicts; globalisation increases both state- and civilian-based conflicts while state fragility increases group-based conflicts. On the other hand, income per capita increases all three types of conflicts. At regional level, we find variation in the effects of military expenditure and globalisation on state- and civilian-based conflicts. However, we find little variation in the effects of the determinants on group-based conflicts across the regions. The findings highlight the nuances in conflicts by actor types and their causes which need to be accounted for when formulating conflict resolution policies.     

Childhood health and sibling outcomes: Nurture Reinforcing nature during the 1918 influenza pandemic

This paper uses the 1918 influenza pandemic to test how household resources are reallocated in response to a health shock to one child. Using a new dataset linking census data on childhood household characteristics to adult outcomes from military enlistment records, I show that families with a child in utero during the pandemic shifted resources to the child's older siblings, leading to significantly higher educational attainments for these older siblings. These results suggest that the reallocation of household resources in response to a negative childhood health shock tended to reinforce rather than compensate for differences in endowments across children.     

Age,Wage and Productivity in Dutch Manufacturing

Previous empirical studies on the effect of age on productivity and wages find contradicting results. Some studies find that if workers grow older there is an increasing gap between productivity and wages, i.e. wages increase with age while productivity does not or does not increase at the same pace. However, other studies find no evidence of such an age related pay-productivity gap. We perform an analysis of the relationship between age, wage and productivity using a matched worker-firm panel dataset from Dutch manufacturing covering the period 2000–2005. We find little evidence of an age related pay-productivity gap.     

The cost of railroad regulation: the disintegration of American agricultural markets in the interwar period

This article investigates the costs of transport regulation using the example of agricultural markets in the US. Using a large database of prices by state of agricultural commodities, we find that dispersion fell for many commodities until the First World War. We demonstrate that this reflected changes in transport costs which in turn in the long run depended on productivity growth in railroads. The year 1920 marked a change in this relationship, however, and between the First and Second World Wars we find considerable disintegration of agricultural markets, ultimately as a consequence of the 1920 Transportation Act. We argue that this benefited railroad companies in the 1920s and workers in the 1930s, and we put forward an estimate of the welfare losses for the consumers of railroad services (that is, agricultural producers and final consumers).     

Impacts of long-lasting civil conflicts on education: Evidence from the 2014 Census of Myanmar

Geocoded conflict information was combined with the 2014 household census data to study the impact of long-lasting township-level internal conflicts on Myanmar's primary school attendance (i.e., the short-term impact) and years of education (i.e., the long-term impact). First, we constructed quasi-panel data for primary-level schooling to find consistently negative, but statistically insignificant, impacts of internal conflicts. The results are robust, even if incompleteness of census or migration are taken into account. In addition, the magnitudes of estimated impacts are much smaller than those of the findings from other countries. Second, we confirmed that conflict exposure from 6−10 years of age has a negative but insignificant impact on years of education. Gender differences in terms of negative impact are almost negligible. By carefully reviewing previous papers and the characteristics of Myanmar’s conflicts until 2014 with respect to the mechanism of the negative effect of conflict on education, we argue that the small negative and statistically insignificant impact found in our analysis is due to the long-lasting and low-intensity nature of the conflicts, as well as the fact that schools and social services are provided by military forces. However, it is important to note that our analysis does not include data of the recent violence in Rakhine state.     

The association of life satisfaction and self-rated health with income dynamics among male employees in Japan

In this study, we analyze how life satisfaction and self-rated health are associated with income dynamics. We used data from male employees in Japan (N = 1004) drawn from a panel dataset of career wage records spanning a period of over 30 years. The income history used in this study was based on administrative records; thus, the data were almost free of recall error. Our results show that life satisfaction was more closely associated with a change in lifetime average income or maximum income than with a change in income compared to the previous year, whereas the opposite was true for self-rated health. In addition, life satisfaction tended to resist a decline in response to a fall in income from its average or maximum level, but this was not the case for self-rated health. Furthermore, an income peak experienced in the past made both life satisfaction and self-rated health more sensitive to changes in income, whereas a trough experienced in the past made them less sensitive. These findings suggest that the association of income between subjective well-being and health should be studied further, within a dynamic framework.     

Shakeout in the early commercial airframe industry

The commercial airframe industry in the US experienced a shakeout from the early 1930s into the post‐Second World War period. Unlike shakeouts in automobiles, tyres, or televisions, the commercial airframe industry's early life cycle was affected by external factors, particularly government demand. Using newly digitized data on all planes introduced in the commercial market between 1926 and 1965, we find that commercial airframe manufacturers with bomber contracts during the Second World War were more likely to have postwar market share than firms without such contracts, controlling for plane characteristics and other forms of government contracting. We attribute the effect of bomber contracts to advantages in R&D learning capacity acquired by firms with military airframe contracts. Despite low (or zero) initial presence in the commercial market, these learning capacity advantages allowed such firms to survive the early period of the shakeout, and later to thrive.     

Military positions and post-service occupational mobility of Union Army veterans, 1861–1880

Although the Civil War has attracted a great deal of scholarly attention, little is known about how different wartime experiences of soldiers influenced their civilian lives after the war. This paper examines how military rank and duty of Union Army soldiers while in service affected their post-service occupational mobility. Higher ranks and non-infantry duties appear to have provided more opportunities for developing skills, especially those required for white-collar jobs. Among the recruits who were unskilled workers at the time of enlistment, commissioned and non-commissioned officers were much more likely to move up to a white-collar job by 1880. Similarly, unskilled recruits assigned to white-collar military duties were more likely to enter a white-collar occupation by 1880. The higher occupational mobility of higher-ranking soldiers is likely to have resulted from disparate human capital accumulations offered by their military positions rather than from their superior abilities.     

中国农村内部的收入流动性：位移效应和增长效应

本文基于中国健康和营养调查（CHNS）的农户收入数据对中国农村家庭从1989年到2006年间的收入流动性进行了测算和分解。测算结果表明,收入流动对收入分配的短期不均等有缓解作用,但这种作用在短期中因流动性的下降而正在弱化。分解结果则说明,相对收入位序的改变虽然仍是农村内部收入流动的主导因素,但收入增长的作用正在增加。这是因为农村内部的收入分层化现象的长期化趋势正导致位移效应的作用下降,且在低收入家庭中已开始出现“阶层锁定”现象。     

Gender differences in job search among young workers: A study using displaced workers in the United States

This article investigates gender differences in job search, job tenure, and wages, whether these differences vary over the early part of the life‐cycle, and whether they are associated with fertility decisions. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youths on highly attached displaced workers aged 20 to 45, we find that 20‐ to 29‐year‐old women and women older than 40 experience longer spells of displacement than comparable men, but that time to a new job is similar by gender for those between 30 and 39 years of age. The age pattern in male–female wage differences in the post‐displacement job is similar, with the largest differences occurring at ages 20 to 29 and over 40. We find no gender differences in tenure in the post‐displacement job. We interpret the differences for the younger ages to be related to fertility and we provide evidence that supports this view.     

Uncovering the Relationship between FDI, Human Capital and Technological Progress in Chinese High-technology Industries

Using a panel dataset for 28 sub-industries from 5 Chinese industries from 1995 to 2006, this paper examines the impact of human capital, R＆D expenditure and FD1 spillover on the productivity improvement of Chinese high-technology industries. The whole industry sample results suggest that human capital promotes total factor productivity, technical change and technical efficiency change, but that FDI lowers all of these factors in Chinese high-technology industry. When we distinguish between types of ownership structure in the industries, we find that human capital improves technical change but lowers technical efficiency change, whereas FDI only improves technical efficiency change in state-owned and state-controlled enterprises but reduces technical change in state-owned and state-controlled enterprises and joint ventures.     

Which firms benefit from robot adoption? Evidence from China

This paper investigates which firms benefit from robot adoption in a developing open economy such as China. First, we construct a unique comprehensive dataset to identify robot adoption in Chinese industrial firms. Second, we adopt difference-in-differences to provide empirical analysis after conducting the common trends tests. Third, we find that adopting robots significantly increases a series of firm performance indicators in robot adoption firms. Compared with adopting firms in the labor-intensive sector, firms in the capital-intensive sector significantly benefit from robot adoption in a series of firm performance indicators, e.g., employment, capital stock, output, total factor productivity, capital returns, and exports. Finally, we check the robustness, investigate the dynamic effects, and find persistent positive effects. Our findings shed some light on the impacts of robot adoption in developing and transition countries.     

Evaluation of board reforms: An examination of the appointment of outside directors

Existing literature on the evaluation of the economic consequences of board reforms has some limitations including: their estimation results fail to show the causal effects of the regulatory reforms; they have limited policy implications for an economy where family businesses are dominant; and there is a lack of consensus on the impacts of the reforms.Using a unique dataset and program evaluation methodologies, this paper investigated the performance of share prices in response to the newly introduced outside director system in Korea, where family businesses have been dominant. First, we find that the positive impact of the appointment of outside directors on returns is observed only when the proportion of outsiders on a board increases significantly and their appointment is accompanied by the lead-and-lag effect of regulatory reforms. Second, the buy-and-hold abnormal return is more evident for independent firms than for chaebol affiliates, due partly to the high monitoring costs for cross-shareholdings among affiliates.