Financial crises and liquidity shocks a bank-run perspective

In contrast with the financial multiplier literature, this note explores a case in which the shock triggering a financial crisis stems from the financial sector itself; it is not a shock stemming from the real sector which gets amplified by, say, agency problems. The basic intuition is provided by the bank-run literature of the Diamond and Dybvig (1983) variety. Financial development is modeled as a mechanism that endows real assets (e.g., land and capital) with liquidity. However, liquidity can be impaired by shocks that are equivalent to a bank run. Liquidity creation enhances real asset prices, while a liquidity crunch generates asset price collapse. This bubble-looking episode is not driven by standard fundamentals, although it is fully in line with rationality. In this context, devoid of other frictions like price stickiness, the note examines the effect of monetary policy in the absence of nominal rigidities. It shows that preventing price deflation is not enough to offset relative (to output) asset price meltdown, but lower policy interest rates increase relative asset prices and steady-state output. Moreover, in the neighborhood of a first-best capital allocation, an increase in the liquidity of capital may lower the welfare of the representative individual, even if the higher liquidity of capital is sustainable and, hence, not destroyed by future crash – illustrating the possibility of “excessive” financial innovation. An extension of the basic model supports the conjecture that low policy interest rates may have given further incentives to the development of “shadow banking.”     

Subprime borrowers,securitization and the transmission of business cycles

A growing literature (e.g., Jaffee et al. 2009, Acharya and Schnabl 2009) argues that securitization improves financial stability if the securitized assets are held by capital market participants, rather than financial intermediaries. I construct a quantitative macroeconomic model with a novel specification for mortgage‐backed securities (MBS) to evaluate this claim. My findings suggest that the existence of the securitization market stabilizes the economy under the condition that financial intermediaries do not engage in the acquisition of securitized assets. In the presence of large negative housing preference shocks, the drop in output in the first year after the shock is halved if subprime MBS are purchased by non‐financial agents rather than held by banks.     

Inflation and financial development: Evidence from Brazil

We examine the impact of inflation on financial development in Brazil, and the data available permit us to cover the period between 1985 and 2004. The results—based initially on time series and then on panel time series and panel data and analyses—suggest that inflation presented deleterious effects on financial development during the period investigated here. The main implication of the results is that poor macroeconomic performance has detrimental effects to financial development, a variable that is important for affecting, (e.g., economic growth and income inequality). Therefore, low and stable inflation, and all that it encompasses, is a necessary first step to achieve a deeper and more active financial sector with all its attached benefits.     

影子银行规模变动的金融资产价格效应*

本文基于所构建的TVP VAR模型，检验了我国影子银行规模变动对金融资产价格的溢出效应。研究结果发现，影子银行规模的增加对商业银行同业拆放利率、房地产价格、股票市场价格指数和人民币实际有效汇率指数具有正向冲击。宏观经济政策调整使经济系统结构发生改变，从而导致金融资产价格对影子银行规模变动的冲击响应具有时变性。由于信息传导需要时间，因此影子银行规模变动的溢出效应具有时滞性。因此，应规范与引导影子银行的发展，在发挥其配置金融资源功能的同时提高资源配置效率，促进实体经济健康发展。     

Exploring the dynamics of the shadow economy across US states

This article examines the dynamics of the shadow economy using data for 50 US states over the period 1998–2008. Using a panel VAR model, we analyse the impulse response of the shadow economy to an orthogonal shock in capital tax rates, educational attainment, union participation and gross state product. We find evidence of significant dynamics underlying the relationship between the shadow economy and its determinants. The results remain robust to alternate measures of the determinants of the shadow economy, alternate causal ordering of the variables in the system and conditioning on the level of income in each state.     

The relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy in OECD countries: An asymmetric analysis

Interest rate changes by central banks are a strong monetary policy tool that has a significant impact on the performance of the real economy via various channels. Despite extensive theoretical and empirical studies in this area, the current literature lacks a comprehensive assessment of the relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy. This study explores the link between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy for 38 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries over the period 1991–2021 using both linear and non-linear ARDL models. The use of the non-linear ARDL specification will allow for the possibility of an asymmetric effect of interest rate volatility on the shadow economy. In addition to the examination of the potential asymmetric effects, we also discuss the ramifications for policymakers with respect to monetary and financial policies while considering each country's specific economic structure.     

The nexus of white collar crimes: shadow economy,corruption and uninsured motorists

This article empirically examines the nexus of three white collar crimes: shadow economy, corruption and uninsured motorists. Whereas the shadow economy–corruption linkage has been studied, the linkages with uninsured motorists have not been formally studied. Results, based on US data and accounting for possible bidirectional causalities, show complementarity between shadow economy and corruption and between uninsured motorists and the shadow economy. The magnitude of the impact of uninsured motorists on the shadow economy is greater than that of corruption. In other findings, shadow economy was lower in most prosperous states and in states that did not impose a sales tax.     

Regulation and shadow economy: empirical evidence for 25 OECD-countries

New empirical findings for the impact of regulations on economic activities in the shadow economy are presented here. A comprehensive regulation index covering major fields (e.g. labour and product market regulation and the quality of institutions) has been used to analyze the relationship between the density of regulations and the size of shadow economies. The empirical results from 25 OECD countries for the time period 1995–2005 show that—apart from tax burden and tax moral—main causes for the development of the size of shadow economies are labour and product market regulations, overall regulations and poor quality of official public institutions and administration. These findings can provide additional information on policy measures to tackle the problem of growing shadow economies.     

金融发展的福利收益和"门槛效应"--一个动态最优增长分析

文章采用无限期界的动态最优控制方法,给出一个最优经济增长模型,讨论金融发展对消费福利的影响。结论显示,金融发展通过提升要素生产率和金融效率产生消费与财富上的“增长率收益”,但金融效率提升和金融发展成本也降低消费-财富比,引起短期消费的下跳。因此,金融发展促进福利收益,但存在“门槛效应”。门槛高度取决于现有技术水平(要素生产率)、居民消费的时间偏好、人口增长率等。这些方面的差异导致各国在通过金融发展促进福利增长上后果不一。这对一国选择金融发展政策具有指导作用。     

Inside Shadow Banking in China: Credit Driven Growth vs. Financial Stability

Shadow banking has been growing rapidly in China since the 2008 global financial crisis. Shadow banking has also played an increasing role in supplying credit. I investigate the development of the shadow banking sector, and assess its impacts on financial stability and economic growth in China. I argue that, due to the loose regulations and institutional characteristics of the shadow banks, these banks tend to adopt business practices that elevate institutional risks. At the systemic level, shadow banks have contributed to credit expansion and credit-driven growth. However, such growth entails significant financial risks and renders the macro-economy financially fragile. I conclude with a discussion of imminent fullblown financial crisis, calling for policy actions.     

金融发展与中国二元经济结构转换

传统的二元经济理论只考察了资本因素在经济发展不平衡中的作用,并没有把金融发展因素纳入其中进行分析,而传统的金融发展理论研究的焦点主要集中在金融发展与经济增长的关系上,对金融发展与二元经济结构之间的关系重视不够。中国是一个典型的城乡二元经济结构的发展中国家,而我国城乡金融发展差距是城乡经济发展差距存在的一个重要原因。因此,解决我国二元经济结构问题的一个重要方面就是要均衡城乡金融发展。     

The Rise of China and Its Implications for the Global Economy: Evidence from a Global Vector Autoregressive Model

This paper studies empirically the role of China in the world economy. We examine both the way the Chinese economy reacts to exchange rate shocks and the repercussions for the world economy of an output shock emanating from China. Based on a global vector autoregressive model and a new data set that excels in country coverage and covers the most recent time period including the global financial crisis, our results are threefold: First, we show that a +1% shock to Chinese output translates to a permanent increase of 1.1% in Chinese real GDP and a 0.1% to 0.5% rise in output for most large economies. Second, to benchmark the shock to Chinese output, we examine the response to a +1% shock to US GDP. The results show that the US economy remains dominant in the world economy, as output rises in other advanced economies by 0.6 to 1%. By contrast, China seems to be little affected by the US shock. Finally, we are the first to assess the impact of a real appreciation of the renminbi versus the US dollar in a global model. Our results indicate that real appreciation of the renminbi decreases the level of Chinese GDP slightly and the long‐run effect is also negative for many countries exporting (e.g. raw materials) to China.     

The Losses from Trade Restrictions: Policy Dynamics with Firm Selection and Endogenous Markup

In this paper, I explore the aggregate effects of trade restrictions in a two‐country, dynamic, general equilibrium (DGE) model with firm selection and variable adjustment of markup. As a response to the trade collapse in the global crisis of 2008 and 2009, temporary trade restrictions have emerged in several countries. With analyzing the dynamics of a negative macroeconomic shock in the home economy first, and the subsequent introduction of trade restrictions in the foreign economy second, I show that both economies are in a worse position than they were during the economic downturn. The follow‐ups to the recession and trade restrictions are investigated through three mechanisms: (1) variable markup as a new avenue of increasing competitive pressure for producers (e.g. more competitive firms lower their markups); (2) average individual firms' specific productivity cut‐off, which induces their optimum export choice (e.g. an increase in the export productivity cut‐off means exporting becomes more difficult than before.); and (3) the movement of international relative prices (e.g. the real exchange rate and terms of trade).     

A Crisis of the Overcrowded Future: Shadow Banking and the Political Economy of Financial Innovation

This article focuses on the role the shadow banking system played in the financial crisis of 2007–9. Engaging with emergent theories of shadow banking, I inquire into its structural role in contemporary capitalism. My main premise here is that the crisis of 2007–9 is distinct in financial history because it did not centre on any organised market. Rather, it was crisis of the overcrowded financial channels bridging the present and the future, which have become congested because of the massive concentration of financial values generated, yet not sustained, through the shadow banking network. My analysis suggests that shadow banking has determined the nature of financial crisis of 2007–9 and continues to play a necessary role in financial capitalism based on futurity. Drawing on scholarship in financial Keynesianism, contemporary legal studies and early evolutionary political economy, I argue that shadow banking is best seen as the organic institutional infrastructure of financialised capitalism based on debt and geared towards futurity, a concept originally developed by John Commons.     

A note on the stabilization impact of asset-side versus liability-side constraints

This study employs a general equilibrium model of the financial sector to evaluate the impact of changing asset-side versus liability-side constraints on effective monetary control. On the basis of maximizing assumptions for individual and institutional behavior, it is possible to conclude qualitatively that asset-side constraints (e.g., a loan reserve requirement and/or a bank capital/assets ratio) automatically stabilize the economy by reducing the expected fluctuations of the rate of return on physical capital. By contrast, the stabilization impact of liability-side constraints (e.g., a deposit reserve requirement and/or a bank capital/deposits ratio) is found to be ambiguous.     

How do business startup modes affect economic growth?

This paper examines researchers’ choices between either collaborating with venture capitalists or going independent when investing in research (e.g., labs, scientists, equipment, perishable materials, etc.) and how their interaction affects long‐run growth in an economy characterized by incomplete contracts and financial market imperfections. We find that venture capital is more likely to be selected by entrepreneurs when startup risks are median to high. A ranking of the welfares associated with each startup mode under different legal and financial environments shows that economic policy and research incentives may not always align as entrepreneurs may not select the mode that provides the highest welfare level.     

Interest-Rate Reforms and Financial Deepening in Botswana: An Empirical Investigation

In this paper, we examine the impact of interest-rate reforms on financial deepening in Botswana, one of Africa's economic development success stories. We employ three proxies of financial deepening against deposit rate, a proxy for interest-rate reforms. The financial deepening in this study is defined as the increase in the relative size and role of the financial system in an economy. The empirical results of our study show that the impact of interest-rate reforms on financial deepening is sensitive to the variable used as a proxy for financial deepening. When the ratio of bank deposits to GDP (BD/GDP) is used as a proxy for financial deepening, the interest-rate reforms impact positively on the level of financial deepening. However, when the monetization variable (M2/GDP) and the ratio of the private sector credit to GDP (DCP/GDP) are used, the coefficient of the deposit rate in the financial deepening model turns out to be statistically insignificant. Overall, our results show that the positive impact of interest-rate reforms on financial deepening in Botswana is minimal. This outcome, though contrary to our expectations, is not surprising given the high level of population dependency in Botswana. Our results show that there is a strong negative relationship between the dependency ratio and financial deepening in Botswana.     

On Estimating the Size of the Shadow Economy

As long as it is employed cautiously enough, the model approach is a useful tool to estimate simultaneously the size and the development of the shadow economy in several countries. However, a second method is necessary to calibrate the model. The currency demand approach can lead to highly implausible results; the size of the shadow economy might be largely overestimated. An alternative is the survey method. For real tests of whether a variable has an impact, procedures are necessary that do not use the same variables as those used to construct the indicator. Thus, to make progress in analysing the shadow economy, the model approach has a role to play, but it has to be complemented by other methods employing different data. The currency demand approach cannot be used as long as it employs the same variables for its constructions.     

Technical change and wage premiums amongst skilled labour: Evidence from the economic transition

I present reduced-form and structural evidence that the reorganization of the Russian economy in the post-transitional period increased the demand on law and business graduates. This demand shock provides a novel unified explanation of the Russian wage structure for 1985–2015. I then show that this shock is a common feature of all transitional economies, and it contributed to the transformational recession. The demand behaviour is identified with a new skill-biased technical change model of demand for skills with three production inputs (high school graduates and bachelor-level educations with two majors), showing that a technology shift that favours a particular skill might emerge within the skilled group rather than between skilled and unskilled. This is relevant because similar shifts (e.g., data scientists vs. liberal arts) emerge today in the frontier economies that adopt new general-purpose technologies (e.g., machine learning). Thus, this paper informs policymakers today on tools to counteract a potential drop in economic equality and performance that result from this adoption. Lastly, because of similarities between the mechanics of the transition and the 2022 sanctions to discourage Russia's war effort, my results highlight the importance of additional sanctions against the education system to prevent the regime's structural adaptation and preservation.     

环渤海经济圈金融发展与海洋经济发展的相互作用机制

利用协整理论和Granger因果关系检验,对环渤海经济圈内4省市(天津、河北、山东和辽宁)的金融发展与海洋经济发展之间的关系及相互作用机制进行了量化分析。结果显示:各地区金融发展水平的提升均会不同程度地拉动当地海洋经济发展;山东省金融发展水平的提升对其海洋经济发展具有直接而显著的促进作用;山东省和河北省金融发展水平的提升主要通过促进当地整体经济的发展来间接拉动海洋经济发展,其中对河北省的拉动效应较为有限;天津市金融发展水平的提升不仅直接显著促进海洋经济发展,而且通过促进当地整体经济发展来间接拉动海洋经济发展。