消费需求不足的收入分析

扩大内需是促进我国经济发展的基本立足点，消费需求不足以及由此导致的投资需求不足成为制约我国经济发展的关键因素。消费需求受收入水平及其分配状况的影响。但由于我国收入分配中的“大”、“斜”、“乱使得收入差距急剧扩大，并导致了整个社会消费倾向过低，影响了消费需求的规模扩张和结构升级。因此，扩大内需，还必须从根本上改变收入差距过大的状况。     

1985年以来中国收入分配对需求结构的影响

收入分配可以通过影响居民的总消费和总储蓄、政府消费、社会总投资这一机制来影响需求结构。基于此,本文运用协整检验、误差修正模型等方法,实证研究了1985年以来中国收入分配对需求结构的影响,结果表明:1.居民/(政府收入+企业收入)的下降和城镇居民可支配收入/农村居民可支配收入的上升,是导致居民消费/社会总投资、居民消费/政府消费和居民消费/出口总额这三大需求结构指标下降的显著原因;2.城镇居民可支配收入/农村居民可支配收入的上升,还会导致城镇居民消费/农村居民消费的增加。对于上述结果,本文分析了其中的可能原因,并就如何改善收入分配提出了一些政策建议。     

收入分配与经济增长——基于消费需求视角的研究

收入分配会对经济增长产生何种影响,一直是经济学中相当重要的问题。通过对收入分配——消费需求——经济增长这一传导机制进行理论分析,表明收入分配将会通过消费需求这一渠道影响经济增长。采用1990年～2007年中国经济的相关数据对消费需求与经济增长、收入分配与消费需求的关系进行了实证分析,分析表明收入分配调整将会对经济长期稳定增长产生重要作用。在此基础上提出了收入分配政策的分类和选择范围,并对部分收入政策工具的效果进行了模拟。     

收入分配与经济增长——基于消费需求视角的研究

收入分配会对经济增长产生何种影响,一直是经济学中相当重要的问题。通过对收入分配——消费需求——经济增长这一传导机制进行理论分析,表明收入分配将会通过消费需求这一渠道影响经济增长。采用1990~2007年中国经济的相关数据对消费需求与经济增长、收入分配与消费需求的关系进行了实证分析,分析表明收入分配调整将会对经济长期稳定增长产生重要作用。在此基础上提出了收入分配政策的分类和选择范围,并对部分收入政策工具的效果进行了模拟。     

我国城乡居民收入差距与消费需求关系的实证研究

文章在介绍2000年以来我国城乡收入分配差距状况和城乡居民消费状况的基础上,对我国城乡收入差距与消费需求关系进行实证分析,发现近年来城乡之间的居民收入差距与平均消费倾向呈负相关关系,说明收入差距扩大是导致居民消费倾向下降、消费需求增长缓慢的重要原因。据此提出了缩小城乡收入差距,促进消费需求增长,从而刺激经济增长的系列措施。     

收入分配对中国城镇居民消费需求影响的实证分析

实证研究表明,我国收入差距与总消费是负相关的,即缩小收入差距的收入分配政策将提高总消费。因此,我们应在不损害效率的前提下,缩小收入差距,提高低收入阶层居民的收入,努力促进中等收入阶层的扩大,逐步形成低收入阶层和高收入阶层所占比例均较小的“橄榄形”收入分配格局。     

收入再分配对我国居民总消费需求的扩张效应

本文研究我国收入再分配与居民总消费需求的关系。文章利用分组的家庭户数据,用三种方法度量居民消费支出,估计了各收入组的边际消费倾向差异。研究中还将变量间的长期动态关系和通货膨胀因素纳入分析范围。研究结果表明,中国的收入分配显著影响了居民消费。根据本文的模拟计算,即使中低收入阶层的收入份额只有微弱的提高,也可以增加数百亿元的居民消费需求。因此,缩小居民收入差距,加大居民收入再分配的力度,壮大中等收入者的队伍,提高农民收入,对刺激我国居民消费需求具有积极作用。     

建立现代产权制度,解决消费需求不足

产权制度经历了从古典产权制度到现代产权制度的演进.受古典产权制度的制约,我国劳动力市场所具有的两个特点决定了工资的市场定价必然将工资定位在低点,它导致了相当一部分就业人口长期的低收入,从而产生收入分配差距偏大和总消费需求不足.因此,必须建立现代产权制度,才能够解决收入分配差距偏大和总消费需求不足的问题.现代产权制度是构建和谐社会的经济基础.     

我国收入不平等、金融发展和消费需求波动的实证研究:1978～2001

本文考察了收入不平等与总消费需求变动之间的联系，在高收入地区，不平等程度越大似乎消费需求波动越大，而在低收入地区，收入不平等越大，消费需求波动反而较小。本文找到证据表明金融发展水平能有助于解释为什么收入分配在高收入和低收入地区中影响消费需求的短期波动是不同的，本文的政策含义是，加快低收入地区如中西部的经济和金融发展步伐，加大金融发展相机调整的力度。     

从居民收入差距看扩大消费需求

温家宝总理在《政府工作报告》中指出：“要努力增加城乡居民收入，提高居民购买水平；加大收入分配调节力度，提高中低收入居民的消费能力。”对于缩小收入差距，扩大消费需求，促进经济增长，有着重要的指导意义。改革开放以来，随着我国经济的发展，我国居民的收入不断增加，但收入差距却日益扩大，严重阻碍着消费需求的增长，为此必须调整收入分配格局，缩小收入差距，扩大消费需求。     

Kalman filter and the demand for cigarettes

kalman filter estimates of price, income and advertising elasticities are presented. An analysis of structural change in the demand for cigarettes in the US for the period 1929–86 is made. Estimated price and income elasticities are generally smaller, and the advertising elasticity larger, than estimates previously found. Cigarette demand is inelastic with respect to price and income, and advertising elasticity is statistically insignificant for the most part. Furthermore, both income and price elasticities decline over time while advertising elasticity tends to rise. Four time periods where structural change has occurred are identified. The health scare reports and the Fairness Doctrine Act have a significant impact on per capita cigarette consumption.     

Consumption patterns in Sri Lanka: a decomposition analysis

Knowing consumer reaction to changes in prices and income is important in formulating microeconomic policies, such as public utility prices and commodity taxation. This paper analyses the consumption patterns of consumer goods grouped into eight broad commodities in Sri Lanka during the period 1975–2016, using a system-wide framework. The analysis indicates that Sri Lankan consumers allocate more than half of their income to food and nearly four fifths of their income to food, housing, and transport combined. The estimated income and own-price elasticities reveal that food, housing, medical care, and transport are necessities; clothing, durables and recreation are luxuries; and demand for all commodities is price inelastic except for recreation. To investigate the consumption growth pattern, we decomposed the growth in consumption and change in budget shares of the eight commodities into income, relative price, and change in taste. We also simulated per capita consumption expenditure of the eight commodities under various policy scenarios and found that income growth has played a significant role in Sri Lankan consumption patterns.     

论住房的刚性需求

住房刚性需求是需求收入弹性较大而价格弹性较小的具有一定购买力的消费性需求。在刚性需求内部具有不同级别的"刚性",刚性渐减的顺序是货币化的拆迁性需求、婚房需求、改善型需求。对于不同性质的城市,其住房刚性需求是不同的,政治性城市住房刚性需求比较大,开放性城市刚性需求变化较大;在现阶段,由于房价财富幻觉导致了刚性需求加速效应和叠加效应。制度变迁、房价和收入都是影响住房刚性需求的重要因素。     

An empirical analysis of income disparity and consumption in China

Using China’s provincial data from 1991 to 2005, this paper analyzes the impact of urban income disparity on their consumption based on static and dynamic panel data models and state space model. The GMM and Kalman Filter methods are used in the estimation and the variables such as income and price are controlled. The empirical results show that the elasticity of permanent income to consumption is much higher than that of temporary income; and the impact of income disparity on consumption is negative and substantial. A rise of 0.01 in the absolute value of Gini coefficient will cause a reduction of 0.35% in consumption on average. The effects fluctuate with the change of economic structure, consumption expectation and economic cycle. In the beginning years of 1990s, it is positive to enlarge income disparity moderately for consumption. It is the year of 1996 that the negative effect first appears in China. During 1998–2004, an increase of 0.01 to the absolute value of Gini coefficient will result in the reduction of consumption to fluctuate between 0.37% and 0.54%. In order to enlarge domestic demand and promote consumption, the focus should be the improvement of permanent income instead of temporary income, and the vigorous policies to reduce income disparity.     

农户家庭消费结构的区位差异分析——基于河南16村1000农户的实证

文章运用ELES模型对农户家庭消费结构进行了分析,结果表明:农户目前仍处于低水平消费阶段,生存性消费远高于发展类消费;农户基本消费需求随经济区位变化的敏感性高于自然区位,且在生存类与发展类上存在较大差异;不同区位农户基本消费需求的满足程度各异,其中优势区农户的满足度较高;农户边际消费倾向总体偏低,但优势区农户生存类消费与弱势区农户发展类消费的边际倾向均较高;不同区域各类型户收入弹性的变动幅度较大,差异格局明显。     

中国居民消费需求不足原因研究——基于中国城乡分省数据

This paper uses Chinese urban and rural panel data for 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities (except Tibet and Taiwan) on the consumption of Chinese urban and rural households in 1995–2005, by constructiong a random effect model, to analyze the impact of sources of household’s consumption demand on the Chinese economy. The quantitative analysis reveals that the per capita disposable income of households is highly relevant in explaining households’ per capita consumption expenditure, in these eleven years, and that China’s consumption function was fairly stable. On the basis of flow of funds accounts (barter transaction) data in 1992–2004, the paper further reveals that, since 1997–1998, China’s consumer demand remains in the doldrums because of the following distribution and redistribution process of the national income: The Government’s share of total income and disposable income is becoming ever larger, while the share of households is declining. Aside from the result that a rise in the burden of personal tuition has a negative impact on per capita consumption demand for urban households, we have not found that housing reform or medical expenses significantly reduce consumer demand in China. We believe that low household consumption demand is caused mainly by the income redistribution between households, government, and corporations rather than the inequality in income distribution across households.     

我国需求结构失衡及其程度评估

需求结构变化虽然不存在可以适用于所有经济体的一般变化模式,但从需求结构变化中的收入效应、规模效应和结构效应依然可以发现其中的一些规律,依据这些规律,我们构造了居民消费率变化与三类效应之间的关系等式。根据这一等式模拟居民消费率变化趋势对我国需求结构失衡情况进行的评估表明,尽管我国需求结构存在失衡,但失衡程度相对有限,如果剔除水平因素,失衡总体上还是在经济增长可以承受范围之内,其中,居民消费率只是近年来才表现出偏离一般水平的变化模式。     

The permanent income hypothesis in underdeveloped economies:: Additional evidence

Laumas and Laumas find no support for the permanent income hypothesis in recent work on a consumption function for India. However, permanent income has been used not only in consumption but also in demand for money functions. Estimates of demand for money in 10 Asian LDCs indicate that substitution of permanent for current income is warranted. In particular, the estimate for India is improved substantially by the use of permanent instead of current income. Furthermore, the weights obtained from a polynomial lag distribution are almost identical to the Laumas' exponential weights with which they construct permanent income.     

A cointegrated structural VAR model of the Canadian economy

This paper implements a cointegrated structural VAR model of the Canadian economy using quarterly data over the period 1964–1994. The dynamic properties of the estimated model are compared to the predictions of a simple textbook macro model. Four long-run equilibrium relationships are tested: (i) consumption–income; (ii) consumption–wealth; (iii) money demand; and (iv) the Fisher equation. The empirical results obtained are generally consistent with the predictions of the textbook model's long-run implications, although level shifts are observed in the consumption/income and the wealth/income ratios. Similarly it is found that there was an increase in the ex post real interest rate, implying a level shift in the Fisher relation, following the Bank of Canada's policy change towards a stable price level target.