Futures markets and commodity options: Hedging and optimality in incomplete markets

This paper examines the allocational roles of futures markets and commodity options in multi-good and multi-period economies. In a continuous-time model with time-additive utilities and homogeneous beliefs, trading in “unconditional” futures contracts, the market portfolio and a riskless asset gives any Pareto-optimal allocation. Individuals' optimal holdings of futures contracts in the continuous-time model are related to their consumption bundles and to their risk tolerances. It is shown that both hedging and “reverse hedging” behavior are possible. In the general model with discrete trading, options on portfolios of commodity options are shown to permit any unconstrained Pareto-optimal allocation.     

HEDGING AND THE COMPETITIVE FIRM UNDER AMBIGUOUS PRICE AND BACKGROUND RISK

This paper examines the optimal production and hedging decisions of the competitive firm that possesses smooth ambiguity preferences and faces ambiguous price and background risk. The separation theorem holds in that the firm's optimal output level depends neither on the firm's attitude towards ambiguity nor on the incident to the underlying ambiguity. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions under which the full‐hedging theorem holds and thus options are not used. When these conditions are violated, we show that the firm optimally uses options for hedging purposes if ambiguity is introduced to the price and background risk by means of mean‐preserving spreads. We as such show that options play a role as a hedging instrument over and above that of futures.     

Market volatility and the dynamic hedging of multi-commodity price risk

Commodity cash and futures prices experienced a severe boom-and-bust cycle between 2006 and 2009. Increases in commodity price volatility have raised concerns about the usefulness of commodity futures and options as risk management tools. Dynamic hedging strategies have the potential to improve risk management when conditional (co)variances depart significantly from their unconditional, long-run counterparts and may be useful to decision-makers despite their greater complexity and higher transaction costs. We propose a Nonparametric Copula-based Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (NPC-GARCH) approach to estimate time-varying hedge ratios, and evaluate the benefits of dynamic hedging during four sub-periods between 2000 and 2011 using a stylized Texas cattle feedlot management problem. The NPC-GARCH approach allows for a flexible, nonlinear and asymmetric dependence structure between cash and futures prices for different commodities. We find that NPC-GARCH dynamic hedging performs better than either static, GARCH-Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) or GARCH-Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner (BEKK) hedging in terms of lower tail risk (expected shortfall), but that there is no significant difference between hedging approaches in terms of portfolio variance reduction.     

股指期货在风险管理中的应用

股指期货属于金融期货的一种,是以股票市场的股票价格指数为标的物的期货合约.在很多发达的股票市场乃至资本市场中,股指期货扮演着规避风险、套期保值的重要角色.在利用股指期货对股票组合进行套期保值时,可能面临各种风险,其中,基差风险是套期保值者面临的最主要风险.利用向量误差修正模型可以估计最小风险套期保值比,为投资者综合选择风险最小的套期保值策略提供了现实的、可操作的定量分析工具.     

Index arbitrage and dynamics between REIT index futures and spot prices

This article contributes to the real estate literature by investigating the pricing relationship between REIT index futures and spot. Based on the cost-of-carry model, we first show that there exist three arbitrage regimes in Australia’s REIT spot-futures price dynamics. Further analysis indicates that the two thresholds, which separate the regimes, are largely consistent with the level dictated by transaction costs. We then estimate a threshold vector error correction model (TVECM). The results show that mean reversion of the mispricing error only takes place in the two outer regimes. Furthermore, we find evidence that REIT spot market is more informationally efficient than the futures market. Given its short history, it will take time for REIT index futures market to mature. Finally, we find that we can enhance hedging performance by accommodating the feature of threshold cointegration displayed by the data. As the futures-spot relationship differs across regimes, we can develop a hedging strategy by adjusting the hedge ratio based on arbitrage regimes. It leads to a greater variance reduction for the hedged portfolio than some conventional methods examined in the existing real estate literature.     

基于“期货＋制造”视角的我国PVC产业链模式研究

在石化行业高成本支撑时代下，“期货＋制造”这一新颖产业模式是我国PVC产业可持续发展的路径选择。本文基于产业链升级作用机理提出的以期货工具为纽带的企业价值链模型和立体旋转“钻石”模型，构建了我国PVC期现市场共同健康发展的理论分析框架。实证结果显示，PVC期货价格发现功能有限，回避风险功能效果较差，现货市场仍起主要作用，因此PVC期现市场之间的互动还需进一步加强。     

NEGATIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK AND FUTURES RETURNS: AN UNEXPLOITED HEDGING OPPORTUNITY?

The negative correlation between equity and commodity futures returns is widely perceived by investors as an unexploited hedging opportunity. A Lucas (1982) asset‐pricing model is adapted to analyse the fundamentals driving equity and commodity futures returns. Using the model we argue that such a negative correlation could arise as an equilibrium relationship which reflects traders' perceptions about the shocks driving the fundamentals such as energy and consumables, and does not necessarily indicate any hedging opportunity.     

Simultaneity, Rationality and Price Determination in US Live Cattle

The results of recent research on the informational efficiency of the US live cattle futures market are ambiguous. Moreover, simultaneous, rational expectations models of spot and futures markets for non-storables are lacking in the literature. This paper addresses both issues: by developing a simultaneous rational expectations model of the US live cattle market, with functional relationships for short hedgers, long hedgers, net short speculators and consumers, the paper employs a wider information set than in previous research and it thus provides a more powerful test of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Tests indicate the possible presence of non-linearities in the long hedging and net short speculation equations.
The results suggest first, that there is support for Working's hypotheses of selective and operational hedging, for short and long hedgers respectively, second that speculators may be noise traders or risk-loving (although the non-linear version of the speculation function partially corrects this anomaly), and third that beef is a normal good while corn is a complementary input. Time-varying volatility is represented as an EGARCH ( p , q ) process. Post-sample, this model does not significantly outperform the futures price in spot price forecasting, implying non-rejection of the EMH.     

股指期货套期保值效率比较研究——基于沪深300股指期货与新华富时A5指数期货

文章基于我国股票型基金十大重仓股构建投资组合,并利用沪深300股指期货与新华富时A50指数期货的日数据对这两种股指期货的套期保值效率进行比较研究,以探究两者在套期保值效率上的差异和造成差异产生的原因。在利用OLS、VECM和ECM-BGRACH等静态和动态套期保值模型和基于风险最小化的套期保值绩效指标对沪深300股指期货与新华富时A50指数期货的套期保值效率进行研究后发现,在静态最优套保比、时变最优套保比和套期保值绩效指标的比较中,新华富时A50指数期货都要优于沪深300股指期货。这种套期保值效率上的差异主要来自于两个金融工具间的合约与交易规则的差别。建议通过设立适当时间的晚间电子盘交易,并允许金融机构在规定的份额内进行期指套利交易,以提升沪深300股指期货在套期保值市场功能上的效率。     

The effects of abandonment options on operating leverage and forward hedging

This paper examines the behavior of the competitive firm under output price uncertainty when the firm is endowed with an abandonment option and has access to a forward market for its output. When the realized output price is less than its marginal cost, the firm optimally exercises its abandonment option and ceases production. The firm lets its abandonment option extinguish, thereby producing up to its capacity, only when the realized output price exceeds its marginal cost. The ex post exercising of the abandonment option as such convexifies the firm's ex ante profit with respect to the random output price. We show that neither the separation theorem nor the full-hedging theorem holds in the presence of the abandonment option. The firm under-hedges its output price risk exposure in the forward market wherein the forward price contains a nonpositive risk premium. When the set of hedging instruments is expanded to include options, we show that both the separation and full-hedging theorems are restored. We further show that the firm prefers options to forwards for hedging purposes when both types of contracts are fairly priced.     

间接广泛利用期货市场:农民增收的有效途径

期货交易中套期保值和价格发现两大经济功能的有效利用,是解决"三农"问题、规避农产品价格风险、确保农民增收的重要途径之一.然而我国农业生产自身存在的局限性,导致农民直接利用期货市场和参与期货交易的可行性不大;而间接利用期货市场开展套期保值交易则是农户的最佳选择.     

EXPORT AND HEDGING DECISIONS UNDER CORRELATED REVENUE AND EXCHANGE RATE RISK

This paper examines the behaviour of a competitive exporting firm under joint revenue and exchange rate risk. The firm can trade unbiased currency futures contracts for hedging purposes. We show that neither the separation theorem nor the full‐hedging theorem holds when the revenue shock prevails. If the correlation between the revenue shock and the random spot exchange rate is non‐positive, the firm optimally produces less than the benchmark level when the revenue shock is absent. If, in addition, the firm is prudent, the optimal futures position is an under‐hedge. Finally, we derive sufficient conditions under which the firm's optimal output level is higher in the presence than in the absence of the revenue shock. Operational hedging and financial hedging as such interact in a complicated way to better cope with the multiple sources of uncertainty faced by the firm.     

我国商品期货市场节约社会试错成本研究

随着市场经济的发展,对期货市场功能的认识不断深化。文章在总结已有研究的基础上提出了价格发现是期货市场基本功能的观点,并将价格发现功能归结到微观上的套期保值、投机、套利和宏观上的节约社会试错成本。文章通过南华期货商品综合指数与PPI的关系检验,证实我国商品期货市场起到了节约社会试错成本的作用。为更好地发挥这一功能,应大力推进期货市场建设,完善商品期货体系,推出权威合理的商品期货指数。     

A Behavioral Decision-Making Modeling Approach Toward Hedging Services

This paper takes a behavioral approach toward the market for hedging services. A behavioral decision-making model is developed that provides insight into how and why owner-managers decide the way they do regarding hedging services. Insight into those choice processes reveals information needed by financial institutions to improve the design of their financial products. The key elements of the model are related to the characteristics of the owner-managers, thereby exploring the decision units' evaluations of the hedging services provided by futures exchanges. Using structural equation models and data from 467 owner-managers, obtained by means of computer- assisted personal interviews, we find that the elements "exercising entrepreneurial freedom," "perceived performance," and the "owner-manager's reference price" determine their attitude toward using futures. These elements are related to innovativeness, risk attitude, and level of understanding of futures markets.     

Information Transmission Between NSE50 Spot and Derivative Platforms in India: An Empirical Study

In this study, we examine the information transmission process between spot, futures and options segments for the NIFTY 50 index. The data is used from 2003 to 2013. Empirical results show that the spot market leads the price discovery process followed by the futures market and then the options market. The spot market again leads in the volatility spillover process while options dominate the futures contracts. There is a univariate skewness spillover from spot as well as futures to the options platform. Further, long term bidirectional kurtosis spillover is observed between spot and futures with former playing a more dominant role.

     

The economic impact of telecommunications diffusion on UK productivity growth

This paper investigates the relationship between telecommunications infrastructure competition, investment and productivity. Using a novel methodology comprising of econometric modelling and input–output economics, the extent to which telecommunications has contributed to national and sectoral productivity performance is examined. The main findings from this paper suggest that most industries have benefited from the incorporation of advances of telecommunications technology, which might have, amongst other things, emanated from encouraging infrastructure investment, in their production processes.     

标准仓单质押组合的价格风险——基于中国农产品期货规范市场的实证研究

利用基于Copula函数的AR(p)-GARCH(p,q)模型计算的VaR能够对农产品标准仓单的价格风险进行准确度量。对大连商品交易所的典型期货交易品种——黄大豆一号、豆油、豆粕的期货合约日结算价进行了实证研究。研究结果显示:从对价格风险预测的盯市频率来看,时变VaR优于静态VaR,因此重视农产品价格风险的频次预测应替代传统风险判断的单次监测;从对风险因子间相依性结构的刻画来看,基于t-Copula函数计算的VaR优于基于正态Copula函数计算的VaR,因此质押物价格波动间的相关系数是度量组合风险时必须考虑的重要变量。     

Currency Options and Export-Flexible Firms

This paper examines the production and hedging decisions of a globally competitive firm under exchange rate uncertainty. The firm is risk averse and possesses export flexibility in that it can distribute its output to either the domestic market or a foreign market after observing the realized spot exchange rate. To hedge against its exchange rate risk exposure, the firm can trade fairly priced currency call options of an arbitrary strike price. We show that both the separation and the full‐hedging results hold if the strike price of the currency call options is set equal to the ratio of the domestic and foreign selling prices. Otherwise, neither result holds. Specifically, we show that the optimal level of output is always less than that of an otherwise identical firm that is risk neutral. Furthermore, an under‐hedge (over‐hedge) is optimal whenever the strike price of the currency call options is below (above) the ratio of the domestic and foreign selling prices.     

Financial frictions and the futures pricing puzzle

In perfect capital markets, the futures price of an asset should be an unbiased forecast of its realized spot price when the contract matures. In reality, futures prices are often higher for some assets and lower for others. However, there is no stability in the relationship between futures prices and the realized spot prices. This instability has been a puzzle in the existing financial literature. The key to this puzzle may lie in the nature of the model and the lack of market imperfections. In this study, we take a theoretical approach in a dynamic multi-period environment. We incorporate competition between disparate economic agents and impose financial frictions (i.e., imperfections) that are in the form of hedging and borrowing limits on them. Our model gives rise to multiple equilibria, each with unique market clearing prices, with the market switching between these equilibria. Our analysis incorporates a comprehensive consideration of the risks faced by the futures markets participants (i.e., speculators and hedgers) and leads to a better understanding of the puzzle.     

A scenario analysis of energy requirements and energy intensity for China's rapidly developing society in the year 2020

Both energy requirements and energy intensity are crucial to the development of a society. This article uses an input–output model to assess how social and economic changes will affect energy requirements and energy intensity for China's rapidly developing society. According to the proposed input–output model, six scenarios were sequentially developed by introducing major impact factors, such as technological advancement, population, income, and urbanization, in order to project China's energy requirements. Based on 1997 data, the impact of economic and social changes on China's energy requirements in 2010 and 2020 were quantitatively analyzed. The results show that technological advancement has the strongest impact on energy intensity. Based on these findings, some related conclusions and corresponding policy recommendations are proposed.