The “fifth world”: Regarding the historical dimension and current relevance of the refugee and migration problem

Abstract

This paper empirically tests whether the host country's financial reform promotes the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI). We test the hypothesis on the reform period Chinese provincial yearly panel data. The system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation shows that the effect of financial reform on inward FDI to GDP ratios is not statistically significant after controlling for other variables and time and province effects. Consistent with the previous studies, market size and openness to international trade have significant effects on the FDI/GDP ratio in both Least squares dummy variables and system GMM estimations.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Services Trade: Evidence from Malaysia and Singapore

Abstract

Services trade is an important source of growth in Malaysia and Singapore. Both economies are export-oriented and actively court foreign direct investment (FDI) to advance their economic objectives of industrialization and economic development. This paper examines the causal linkages between inward FDI and the country's engagement in services trade in bi-variate and tri-variate VAR frameworks. The empirical findings for Singapore show evidence of bi-directional causality between inward FDI and the total trade volume in services (i.e. the absolute sum of payments and receipts) as well as between FDI and services imports (in the tri-variate specification). This may reflect her relative open foreign investment policy and free trade regime in services. For Malaysia, the evidence of causality is weaker and uni-directional, from inward FDI to services imports. These findings are consistent with the different stages of economic development and openness attained by the two sample countries, and they provide useful background for trade and foreign investment policies and development strategies.     

Workers' Remittances,Capital Inflows,and Economic Growth in Developing Asia and the Pacific

This paper examines the impact of remittances on economic growth, using developing countries in Asia and the Pacific as a case study. Using data for the period 1993–2013, our results show that remittances only generate negative and significant impacts on economic growth if they reach 10 percent of GDP or higher. A remittances‐to‐GDP ratio of below 10 percent could still impact growth negatively, but the effect is statistically insignificant. The present study finds some degree of substitutability between remittances and financial development. Foreign direct investment (FDI), but not other types of capital inflow, contributes significantly to economic growth. Other traditional growth engines, including education, trade openness, and domestic investment, are crucial in promoting growth in developing Asian and Pacific nations.     

Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Japan

Abstract

This article aims at analysing the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) outflows in economic performance and the impact of economic growth on outward FDI with the data from Japan. Bivariate and multivariate Granger causality frameworks have been used in this study. The results suggest that the conclusion of bivariate framework may not be valid because it allows omission of important variables. The results of the multivariate framework show that there is a long-run positive unidirectional causality from outward FDI to gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. In the short-run, both per capita income and outward FDI do not allow Granger causality.     

FDI, exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia—Panel data versus time-series causality analyses

Using time-series and panel data from 1986 to 2004, this paper examines the Granger causality relations between GDP, exports, and FDI among China, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand, the eight rapidly developing East and Southeast Asian economies. After reviewing the current literature and testing the properties of individual time-series data, we estimate the VAR of the three variables to find various Granger causal relations for each of the eight economies. We found each country has different causality relations and does not yield general rules. We then construct the panel data of the three variables for the eight economies as a group and then use the fixed effects and random effects approaches to estimate the panel data VAR equations for Granger causality tests. The panel data causality results reveal that FDI has unidirectional effects on GDP directly and also indirectly through exports, and there also exists bidirectional causality between exports and GDP for the group. Our results indicate that the panel data causality analysis has superior results over the time-series causality analysis. Economic and policy implications of our analyses are then explored in the conclusions.     

China's economic development: does exchange rate and FDI nexus matter?

This study aims to investigate the relationship between China's exchange rate, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, and economic development. We applied the bound testing approach on aggregate level data from 1981 to 2013. The results showed that the Chinese economy benefitted from a lower exchange rate over this period, and that there was a direct link between FDI inflows and economic development on an aggregate level both in the long and short run. The results of the Granger causality test identified a long‐ and short‐run association among these variables. The GMM estimations with dummies for financial crises and RMB exchange rate policy fluctuations also confirmed the growth enhancing impact of the exchange rate and FDI inflows. To promote sustainable economic development in the future, China should focus on improving the levels of domestic investment and human capital, as well as supervising the level of openness and capital controls.     

The impact of foreign direct investment and human capital on economic growth: Evidence from Chinese cities

Using a panel of Chinese cities over the period 1991–2010, we examine the determinants of economic growth, focusing on the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) and human capital. Consistent with the predictions of a human capital-augmented Solow model, we find that the growth rate (along the path to the steady-state income level) of per capita GDP is negatively correlated with population growth rate and positively correlated with investment rate in physical capital and human capital. We find that FDI has a positive effect on the per capita GDP growth rate and this effect is intensified by the human capital endowment of the city. The latter suggests that one way that human capital contributes to growth is to serve as a facilitator for technology transfers stemming from FDI. Furthermore, we find some suggestive evidence that the FDI-human capital complementary effect is stronger for technology-intensive FDI than for labor-intensive FDI. Our results are robust to alternative measures of human capital, model specifications, and estimation methods.     

FDI、经济增长与工业污染——基于安徽省1993—2012年数据的EKC检验

基于协整理论、格兰杰因果检验和EKC假说,考察了安徽省利用FDI发展经济背后的环境风险。研究结果显示：FDI和工业废气、工业固体废物均存在协整和因果关系,但无论在长期还是短期,FDI对工业废水排放的影响都不明显,这很大程度上取决于FDI在安徽省的行业分布状况。此外,样本期间安徽省不存在严格的“倒U”型EKC,工业废气和工业固体废物仍随着经济增长而不断增加,工业废水减排的管制效果明显,其与经济增长的关系呈“U＋倒U”型,而外资的流入则进一步加大了安徽省跨越EKC顶点的难度。     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN ZIMBABWE: THE ROLE OF INSTITUTIONAL AND MACROECONOMIC FACTORS

The purpose of our research is to examine the impact of property rights on foreign direct investment (FDI) in Zimbabwe for the period 1964‐2005. While the macroeconomic determinants of FDI have been analysed to a considerable extent in past empirical work, the role of institutional factors such as the protection of property rights and the efficiency of the legal system has been underexplored. Using a multivariate cointegration framework, we use a newly constructed de jure property rights index for Zimbabwe to determine the impact of property rights on FDI. The empirical evidence shows that property rights are consistently an important explanatory variable of FDI in Zimbabwe, even after controlling for periods when there are no significant new foreign capital inflows. Other significant explanatory variables of FDI in Zimbabwe are the real gross domestic product (GDP), capital intensity, the external debt to GDP ratio, political instability as well as the educational levels.     

Explaining Heterogeneity in the Effect of the Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Direct Investment: A Meta‐Analysis Approach

This study examines the effect of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI) by using a meta‐analysis. We filter out publication bias within the 1,329 estimates, pooled from 101 studies and employ Bayesian Model Averaging to reduce model uncertainty and explain the existing heterogeneity. The results reveal that the exchange rate system, estimation characteristics, and the modeling approach have an important and noticeable influence on the statistical significance and direction of the estimates. On one hand, the impact of exchange rate volatility is relatively lower in countries with higher trade openness, human capital and better protection of intellectual property rights. On the other hand, greater geographical distance and technology gap between the host and the home economy are associated with greater uncertainty and thus accentuate the negative causality between exchange rate volatility and FDI. Such sensitivities suggest that greater emphasis should be placed on reporting estimates of the impact of the exchange rate and its volatility on FDI across a variety of methodological characteristics and specification and estimation choices.     

对外贸易和外商直接投资对中国人力资本存量影响的实证研究——基于岭回归分析法

文章首先建立模型,然后利用我国1983～2008年的时间序列数据,运用岭回归法实证研究了对外贸易和外商直接投资对人力资本存量的影响.结果发现,进口贸易显著地提升了我国人力资本;出口贸易对人力资本的正面影响系数很小;外商直接投资有利于人力资本的提升,但提升的幅度较小;国内生产总值和教育经费增加有助于提升人力资本.最后,文...     

Capital Account Liberalisation by China and the Effects on Global FDI and Trade

We model the partial liberalisation of the capital account by China using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Our results indicate that a reduced capital controls on foreign direct investment (FDI) would lead to a significant increase in FDI capital in China and a significant reduction in the cost of capital in China relative to the rest of the world. Furthermore, we observe an increase in capital stocks in most regions, which benefits most regions in terms of GDP and GNP. The Chinese economy grows by 3.3% driven by a significant fall in the rental price of capital that, in turn, lowers domestic costs, causes a real depreciation of the exchange rate and thus increased exports relative to other regions. We also observe an across-the-board increase in the saving rate driven by the rise in the price of consumption relative to investment (saving) in all regions.     

Trade effects of foreign direct investment: Evidence for Taiwan with four ASEAN countries

Trade Effects of Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence for Taiwan with Four ASEAN Countries. —This paper examines the trade effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) between Taiwan and each of the following four ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Regression results show that Taiwan's outward FDI has a significant positive effect on exports to and imports from the host country, whereas no such effects were consistently found for inward FDI from the same country.     

Taxation and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: Time Series Evidence from the US

Abstract

This study investigates long run and short run relationships between the corporate income tax rate and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to the US. The tax rate is found to exert a significant negative effect on total FDI and transfer fund inflows in the long run. A 1% decrease in the tax rate would increase total FDI by 2.4% and transfer funds by 4.2%. Collectively, results suggest that the US can use tax policies to attract FDI from abroad. Concern over the possibility of tax competition among countries to attract foreign capital is warranted.     

升值背景下人民币汇率、FDI与经济增长动态时变效应研究

本文运用Pesaran边限协整检验方法系统地研究了升值背景下人民币汇率、FDI与经济增长之间的动态时变效应。研究发现,人民币汇率、FDI与经济增长在样本期内存在显著的长期均衡关系,人民币升值和经济增长均对FDI的流入具有明显的促进作用。而经济增长与FDI的流入对人民币汇率的反馈机制并不存在,FDI流入对于经济增长的促进作用也不明显,表现出强烈的以"投机套利"为主要目的的"本土特征"模式。且同期的向量误差修正分析同样表明,人民币汇率和经济增长能够有效促进FDI流入,而经济增长和FDI流入对于人民币汇率变动的反馈机制依然不存在。这意味着政府当局在保持经济适度规模增长的同时,尤其需要保持审慎的态度制定适当的政策保持汇率稳定,以避免人民币升值过快而导致外资迅速流入进行投机套利活动。     

Population Problems of the Countries of Asia

Abstract

This study seeks to explain the variation in U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in Latin America and Asia. The analysis focuses on 19 Latin American and Asian countries for the period of 1979–1999. The results show that the variation in the U.S. FDI can largely be attributed to the differences in fundamental economic and social factors such as market size, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, macro-economic stability, the degree of trade openness, and both school enrollment and infrastructure availability. Separating the data into two time periods reveals interesting results about the location decisions for U.S. investors. In addition, the results from the comparison between the two regions show that Latin American countries clearly attract U.S. FDI for different reasons than Asian countries.     

FDI对我国电子工业生产率的行业内溢出效应研究——以1996—2001年43个细分行业为例

本文考察了外资对中国电子工业劳动生产率的影响。利用1996—2001年期间电子行业的9大部门和43个细分行业的面板数据,并按照无形资产比率、出口比率和国有资本比率对43个细分行业进行了分组检验,我们发现,1996—2001年期间中国电子工业的劳动生产率呈现明显的外商直接投资的溢出效应,并且在不同的行业呈现较大的波动。在无形资产比率高、出口比率高、国有资本比率高的行业,外资对劳动生产率的促进作用显著,而在国有资本比率低、技术含量低的行业,外资对劳动生产率的促进作用不显著。国有企业在促进劳动生产率提高方面具有积极作用,说明国营企业引进外资是一种长期有效的学习跨国公司经验的途径。而且,跨国公司通常被高生产率的电子行业所吸引,在这些行业溢出效应明显存在,但对于一些外资比率低的电子行业,这种正溢出效应不显著。

Abstract：

This paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment（FDI）on the labor productivity of China’s electronics industry. Using panel data of 9 major sectors and 43 sub-sectorsof the electronics industry during the period 1996—2001,and doing group test according to the ratio of intangible assets,the export ratio and the state-owned capital ratio of the 43 sub-sectors,we find that during 1996—2001,labor productivity of the Chinese electronics industry showed significant spillover effects of FDI and large fluctuations in different industries. In industries that have high intangible assets ratio,high export ratio and high state-owned capital ratio,FDI played a more significant role in promoting labor productivity than in industries that have low state—owned capital ratio and low technology contents. State-owned enterprises has a positive effect in promoting labor productivity,indicating that introducing foreign investment is an effective long term route to learn transnational corporations’ experience for state-owned enterprises. Moreover,transnational corporations are always attracted to higher productivity sub-sectors,implying significant spillover effects in these industries,while in sub-sectors with low rate of foreign invest-ment,the spillover effect is not significant.     

我国双重二元经济结构下FDI的异质性

我国存在着双重的二元经济结构,这对流入我国FDI的性质有着重要的影响。本文的实证结果显示,2002～2009年我国东部地区的外资利用以能带来更大技术溢出并促进产业结构升级的水平型FDI为主,我国中部地区FDI性质不明确,而西部地区的外资利用则以垂直型为主。门槛回归结果显示,我国各地区不同的金融发展水平、对外依赖度以及国家干预程度对流入我国FDI性质都存在明显的门槛效应。     

Determinants of Real Chinese GDP 1978–2014

In 2014, the IMF reported that China became the largest economy in the world according to Purchasing Power Parity rates. This study aims to explain the Chinese economic miracle. It focuses on frequently suggested factors influencing China’s real gross domestic product (GDP), such as export promotion, exchange rate policy, and foreign direct investment (FDI). The paper employs the Bounds test of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to test for cointegration. Once cointegration is established, Granger Causality is investigated using the vector autoregressive model and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) method. Two different combinations of the real macroeconomic variables exports, exchange rate, imports, and FDI were employed to examine Granger causal relationships. All explanatory variables, except for the exchange rate, were found to have plausible relationships with GDP. The exchange rate and GDP relationship was unexpected; a Renminbi appreciation was associated with an increase in GDP. To investigate this paradox, a third ARDL model was estimated with exports as the dependent variable and the exchange rate, world GDP, and FDI as the independent variables. In this model, we found evidence of cointegration and a plausible relationship between real exports and the real exchange rate. Exchange rate devaluation increased exports and thus indirectly increased GDP. Such findings help to resolve the unexpected results. Nonetheless, according to the Granger causality tests the established statistical evidence is rather weak. We found that both the exchange rate and FDI are no longer strong drivers of economic growth in China.     

Foreign Capital Flows,Uncertainties of Exchange Rates and Central Bank Independence: Implications for Emerging Economies

Utilizing time series data for a panel of 22 emerging countries and applying Granger causality tests, this paper extends the relationship between central bank independence (CBI) and uncertainties of inflation by including the phenomena of exchange rates and foreign capital flows. There are two specific objectives of this investigation. The first objective is to see whether uncertainty of inflation induces volatility of exchange rates, and vice versa, under differing degrees of CBI. The second objective is to explore whether the dynamics of the former relationship influence foreign capital flows in turn and, if so, whether the extent of CBI plays any role in shaping that influence. The period of study spans the years 1968 through 2013. Conditional variances for inflation and exchange rates define proxies for uncertainties of inflation and exchange rates in the empirical analysis. Additionally, annual inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) provide measures for foreign capital flows in the analysis. Results of causality tests for high and low CBI country subgroups show interesting differences. For the high CBI countries, uncertainty of inflation and uncertainty of exchange rates do not share any causal relationship whatsoever between them. However, a weak link runs from FDI to uncertainties of inflation in the long run. This may be indicative of the disciplined monetary policy and tamed inflation in these countries. Contrastingly, for the low CBI countries, there is strong evidence of causal links running from uncertainties of inflation to uncertainties of exchange rates on the one hand and to FDI flows on the other. In addition, there is indication of a bi-directional causal link between FDI flows and exchange rates for these countries.