An assessment of risk and safety in civil aviation

Risk and safety have always been important considerations in civil aviation. This is particularly so under current conditions of continuous growth in air transport demand, frequent scarcity of airport and infrastructure capacity, and thus permanent and increased pressure on the system components. There is also the growing public and operators’ awareness of these and other system externalities such as air pollution, noise, land use, water/soil pollution and waste management, and congestion. This paper offers an assessment of risk and safety in civil aviation. It deals with general concept of risk and safety, describes the main causes of aircraft accidents and proposes a methodology for quantifying risk and safety.     

Learning from accidents: Updates of the European regulation on the investigation and prevention of accidents and incidents in civil aviation

Civil aviation has a longstanding tradition of investigating accidents and reporting incidents, which contributes to making aviation one of the safest forms of transport.To make flying safer, independent investigation into accidents is essential as it the surest way of identifying the causes of an accident and answering the fundamental questions “What really happened?” and “What can be done to prevent similar incidents in the future?”.The obligation to investigate accidents is enshrined in the Chicago Convention of 1944. Recognizing the importance of accident investigation, the European Union adopted Council Directive 94/56/EC establishing the fundamental principles governing the investigation of civil aviation accidents and incidents and later on Directive 2003/42/EC on occurrence reporting. They both significantly contributed to harmonization of accident prevention.But with air traffic steadily increasing, accidents do happen despite the best efforts of regulators and industry. The organization of the air transport sector is much more complex now than it was a decade ago. Today there is significant divergence in the investigating capacity of the EU Member States compared to 1994. Furthermore nowadays investigating air accidents take new kinds of expertise and more resources than a decade ago. At the same time there is a new legal and institutional environment in Europe derived from the adoption of European aviation safety rules. Also the organizational set-up has changed substantially with the establishment of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), which is now responsible for certifying aircraft in the EU. The EU rules on investigating air accidents need to be updated to reflect the current realities of Europe's aviation market and the complexity of the global aviation industry.Accordingly, over the last few years the European Commission has been working on a Regulation on the investigation and prevention of accidents and incidents in civil aviation, with the intention of updating and replacing the existing Directive. With this new regulation the Commission aims to promote more efficient and independent inquiries into the causes of air accidents and also expects to strengthen the rights of the victims of air accidents.Today the end is in sight, once that the Commission and European Parliament have reached an agreement about the content and text of this new regulation. Reasons behind this new regulation are presented in this paper together with a detailed explanation of its main contents, an assessment of their impact and their expected benefits.     

A study of the site selection of a civil airport based on the risk of bird strikes: The case of Dalian,China

Bird strikes are a potential danger to aviation security. The threat of birds to the flight security of civil airplanes is hard to solve if the existence of birds in nature is ignored. An in-depth study on the living habits of birds and the request for a harmonious coexistence between birds and civil airplanes seems to be an effective way to relieve this contradiction. Taking the case of the site selection of the civil airport in Dalian of China, this paper comprehensively analysed the bird strike assessment of various species of birds near the sites of Zhoushuizi Airport and Jinzhou Bay Airport. The assessment of the risk of bird strikes demonstrated that the site of the Jinzhou Bay airport would have a smaller risk of bird strikes, which could greatly reduce collisions between birds and airplanes and promote aviation security. Such results provide a valuable reference for the site selection of the civil airport in Dalian. As bird strikes are a common problem in the field of civil aviation, the analysis and methods in this paper are a needed reference for the planning and land use of civil airports in other cities.     

The development of air transportation in Nigeria

This paper examines the development of the Nigerian civil aviation industry since its inception in the 1920s, but particularly since 1980, examining the institutional framework, partial deregulation, infrastructural provision and passenger traffic. The current crisis in Nigeria's civil aviation industry, following the decline and near collapse of Nigeria Airways, is blamed on the absence of a coherent air transport policy, excessive bureaucracy, bad management and a failure to adhere to business principles. Full deregulation might be a solution.     

Risk factors associated with flying in adverse weather: From the passengers' point of view

Risk factors on the demand side of aviation safety are rarely addressed as the focus of research is most often placed on the supply side of aviation service. Even though airlines have the prerogative to cancel flights in the face of adverse weather, stranded passengers have to be reckoned with in the event of cancellation. Passengers' awareness of the risks associated with flying in adverse weather may help mitigate the confrontation as well as induce passengers to take the lead in adopting preventive measures. The aim of this article is to study the attitudes air travelers say they have towards flying in adverse weather, as well as risk factors regarding cancellation of trips in adverse weather. A conceptual framework is presented which outlines the links between risk factors and preventive measures. Data generated from a quantitative survey of 1145 air travelers, conducted in July 2015 at Taiwan's Kaohsiung International Airport, is used to examine this framework using correlation analysis and one-way analysis of variance (one-way ANOVA). The factors of trust, risk perception and domestic destination are found to be positively related to passengers' stated attitude toward taking preventive measures. Income, purpose of the trip and direct experience generate ambiguous results. The outcome also suggests the following paradox: while pilots make the final decision regarding aviation safety in adverse weather, they appear to enjoy the lowest level of passenger trust.     

Effects of work shifts on fatigue levels of air traffic controllers

Fatigue is one of the most important issues since it is considered to be a potential risk factor for human error. Most research related to human fatigue in the aviation industry targets pilots, yet air traffic controllers also experience elevated levels of fatigue that affects aviation safety. Despite this, fatigue is often ignored in literature, as it is a mental and physical status that is difficult to measure. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) announced the concept of the Fatigue Risk Management System (FRMS) in Annex 6 in 2011, which provides suggestions to reduce aircrew fatigue. In 2016, the Civil Air Navigation Services Organization (CANSO), ICAO, and the International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers' Associations (IFATCA) published the Fatigue Management Guide for Air Traffic Service Providers and for the first time proposed recommendations for air traffic controllers (ATCs) to address this issue. Based on the management guide, this research used the Samn-Perelli fatigue scale to measure air traffic controllers' fatigue levels in an international aerodrome control tower in Taiwan. The results indicated that there were significant differences between day/night shifts, time periods (shift start time, before break time, after break time, and shift end time), and various work schedules. The results also revealed the importance of the timing of the breaks and time on task when arranging work schedules. This research contributes to aviation safety by investigating ATCs' fatigue levels in current work shifts, thereby helping related units to improve and adjust shift schedules in order to reduce the risks related to fatigue.     

Reform and opening up: Way to the sustainable and harmonious development of air transport in China

The global air transport has been undergoing wings of change in the past 30 years as a result of deregulation and liberalisation. During this period, the air transport in China has also been undergoing significant transformation and rapid growth following the reform and opening up policy of China since 1978, the same year when the USA enacted the Airline Deregulation Act. Although China has become the world's second largest air transport system since 2006, few studies have analyzed the growth pattern and policy evolution of this important market. This paper critically reviews the development of the air transport policy of China and examines the challenges in the 21st Century. Such an investigation leads to the following conclusions: (A) the reform of China's civil aviation has been based on the national policy in socialist market economy as well as the liberalisation of air transport; (B) the substantial growth in the last three decades has been driven by economic growth as well as the transformation of China's transport industry. (C) In order to sustain the rapid and continuous development in civil aviation, China should continue to implement scientific management and development, deepen the reform and opening up and continue liberalisation.     

Safety perceptions of training pilots based on training institution and experience

This study examines training pilot survey data in order to determine how students’ years of education and the institutions that they attend affect their perceptions of the risk factors in aviation as assessed using the SHELL model (software, hardware, environment, and liveware). The results reveal that student pilots lack confidence with respect to their knowledge during flights; moreover, they fail to recognize the importance of maintaining relationships among supporting staff such as air traffic controllers, mechanics, and others involved in the flight process. The findings suggest that to meet an increased demand for pilots, newly approved training centers are needed, centers which will foster awareness of interaction between human factors and other aspect of aviation safety; to support this, there should be more standardization of curricula.     

Risk assessment modeling in aviation safety management

Safety risk management is important in aviation. This paper develops a quantitative model for assessing aviation safety risk factors as a means of increasing the effectiveness of safety risk management system by integrating the fuzzy linguistic scale method, failure mode, effects and criticality analysis principle, and as low as reasonably practicable approach. The model is developed by evaluating all related estimation factors based on their importance, how hazardous they are, their detectability, probability, criticality, and frequency. An empirical study demonstrates the modeling process.     

Civil aviation regimes and leisure tourism in Europe

The paper discusses the implications of modern civil aviation regimes for tourism in Europe. A discussion of the relation between air transport and tourism sets the foundation for the study focus. The market strategies of the players involved are examined within a multidimensional framework of corporate rivalry during regulation and liberalisation. The connotations for tourism origins, destinations and consumers are presented and policy measures are suggested for the alleviation of emerging problems.     

A study on the importance of airline selection attributes by airline type: An emphasis on the difference of opinion in between Korean and overseas aviation experts

The main purpose of this research is to understand the relative importance of airline selection attributes that are considered important by passengers when selecting an airline. Specifically, we analyzed how the attribute selections differed based on airline types, a Full Service Carrier (FSC) and a Low Cost Carrier (LCC). For this purpose, a Delphi analysis was performed with 34 Korean aviation experts and 32 overseas aviation experts as the target sample groups. Statistical tests including Mann-Whitney U Test and Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test, were used to analyze the selection attributes. In the case of FSCs, safety, flight schedule, cabin interior, and fast check-in processes were considered to be important selection attributes whereas for LCCs, air fare level, flight safety, the convenience of air ticket purchasing procedures, and additional charges were considered to be the important selection attributes. Additionally, there was a difference in the importance of airline selection attributes depending on whether it was a Korean or overseas aviation market. The result of these findings may be utilized as basic data in establishing a marketing strategy for an airline company to attract more passengers.     

Performance evaluation of China's air routes based on network data envelopment analysis approach

Air routes are among the most important elements of civil aviation transport. Airlines' operations are mainly dependent on the structure and layout of air routes. This paper first divides the production process of air routes into two stages, allocation and transport, based on air route operational characteristics. Then, two network data envelopment analysis (DEA) models are proposed to analyze the efficiency of the system, allocation, passenger transport, and freight transport of 477 air routes. The research result demonstrates that the different constraints on intermediate measure in the network DEA models do affect the air routes’ efficiency significantly; Most air routes have high allocation efficiency and passenger transport efficiency, while they have low freight transport efficiency. Furthermore, the efficiencies of 82 airports are also analyzed after aggregating the efficiencies of the air routes.     

Safety performance monitoring and measurement of civil aviation unit

A method of safety performance measurement is proposed to monitor the safety management process of civil aviation unit (CAU) with a series of safety performance indicators (SPIs). All these SPIs are arranged in a three-level model based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Delphi method, called the DAHP model, which takes full advantage of the expert knowledge and quantitative calculation. The weight of each SPI is estimated by the DAHP model, while its score is monitored and measured quantitatively with the two values of the standard deviation and average values of the preceding historical data points. The proposed method was tested successfully on the real data of a regional CAU in China, reflecting the CAU's safety management state immediately and quantitatively.     

An investigation of air accidents in Nigeria using the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) framework

Increasing air traffic growth has been achieved along with substantial improvement in safety globally. While air traffic is equally growing in Nigeria, safety levels do not appear to be growing side by side. This was gleaned from the spate of accidents and fatalities recorded in the last couple of decades. The study therefore set out to assess safety performance in Nigeria's air transport industry by comparing accidents and fatality rates with global average levels during the period 1985–2008. A content analysis of the accident reports was done using the Human Factors Analysis Classification System (HFACS) as a conceptual framework; this was augmented with results of industry experts assessment of the Nigerian aviation industry. Their assessments were also discussed in the context of the conceptual framework. Accidents and passenger fatality rates in Nigeria were higher than global average figures for most of the years included in the analysis period. Findings on aircraft ages show that these are also higher than world average levels. The aviation industry experts' assessment presented various challenges which include inadequate airport facilities, absence of timely meteorological information and dearth of skilled personnel in Nigeria's aviation industry. The content analysis of the accident reports using the HFACS shows that skill based errors; physical environment and inadequate supervision are the most frequently occurring categories influencing accident occurrences. The Chi-square and Fishers's test used to analyze significant relationships in the HFACS categories obtained in the accident reports showed five pairs of significant associations between adjacent categories. Based on these associations, Supervisory Violations:-Crew Resource Management:- Decision Errors path is deemed the most potent for accident occurrences. Findings from the research point to the need to address personnel skill, physical environment issues (mostly weather related) and supervisory competence.     

Aeropolitics in a post-COVID-19 world

We review selected aeropolitical issues that may impact the international aviation sector post-COVID-19. Consideration regarding ICAO's role in coordinating safety provisions using existing frameworks will be important. Issues relating to national airline bailouts and recapitalisation as well as international ownership are also explored. We offer several further, as yet unanswerable, questions about future aeropolitical issues, including how ICAO will continue to address the crisis, implications for air services capacity restrictions, the impact of deglobalisation and the question of state aid for national carriers and other parts of the aviation system.     

Airline safety measurement using a hybrid model

Although air transport has a good safety record, public perception often focuses excessively on accidents. Safety is affected by many factors such as management, operations, maintenance, environment, aircraft design, and air traffic control. Quantitative measurement of the airline safety index is the goal of this paper. Some previous efforts to measure aviation safety have assumed the criteria to be independent, but this is not the case in the real world. Here a hybrid multiple criteria decision-making model to address dependent relationships among criteria, using a decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory along with an analytical network process, to decide the relative weights of criteria, showing inter-dependence and feedback.     

The effect of aviation responses to the control of imported COVID-19 cases

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has a lasting and unprecedented negative impact on the global aviation industry. While countries such as China have successfully curbed the domestic outbreak of the virus with various restrictive and preventive measures, the challenge of avoiding imported cases remains. More importantly, it is still unclear to what extent these implemented aviation emergency responses have effectively mitigated the transmission risk of the virus. This paper provides an empirical assessment of aviation responses to the control of imported COVID-19 cases, with a focus on the following three strategies: the “circuit breaker” policy, the “negative Nucleic Acid testing (NAT)”, and the “double negative tests” requirement. Non-recursive structural equation models (SEM) with latent variables were applied to detailed international flight data and individual epidemic survey data of Guangzhou, China, between May 1 and November 30, 2020. The results show that the “double negative tests” measure has a positive effect on eliminating the number of SARS-CoV-2 carriers, while the effects of single “circuit breaker” and its co-intervention with “negative NAT” are conterproductive. This study provides important implications to civil aviation agencies in regard to medium and long-term risk control of imported cases. Specifically, although the circuit breaker mechanism was designed to target on the risk control of imported COVID-19 cases, it may be more effective to carefully maintain a timely and reliable pre-boarding screening and testing to curb the number of imported cases.     

The influence of mindfulness on mental state with regard to safety among civil pilots

Civil pilots' mental state has an important impact on their safety operation behaviors. The goal of this paper is to explore the relationships between mindfulness and anxiety in Chinese airline pilots. 319 commercial civil pilots from China Southern Airlines Ltd. were investigated using three separate scales, which measured mindfulness, anxiety, and burnout. The results show that mindfulness has a negative effect on pilots' anxiety. Burnout partially mediates the relationships between mindfulness and anxiety. Thus, mindfulness primarily influences pilots’ anxiety indirectly, by affecting burnout. The findings with regard to mindfulness have important implications in terms of pilot selection and emotional intervention, which, if appropriately addressed, can contribute to improving aviation safety.     

The future of airports post COVID-19

COVID-19 pandemic has hit most sectors of the world and has led to many industries coming to a standstill. It has led to restrictions of movement and travel ban. As a result of these restrictions, transport sector especially in aviation has impacted badly.With the uncertainty of further impact of the current situation, there is a likelihood of the aviation business rebounding at a slower pace bringing V-shape and U-shape recovery as per analysis of economic impacts on civil aviation by International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO (2020). Currently, airline capacity is down 70 to 80 percent in April 2020 compared to April 2019, and multiple large airlines have temporarily ceased operations. Largely, almost 60 percent of the global fleet was grounded in early April 2020 as per McKinsey report (Curley et al., 2020).In order to support the sinking capacities and revenues, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) calls on the European governments to provide relief to their airlines to sustain their operations. Furthermore, this document highlights the future of airport and air transport industry based on revenue generation sources, cost control strategies and integration of innovations with respect to variable demand and capacity during and post COVID-19.     

A holistic approach to evaluating the effect of safety barriers on the performance of safety reporting systems in aviation organisations

Safety reporting systems are a necessary component of any Safety Management System (SMS) in contemporary aviation organisations. Improving the performance of safety reporting systems can significantly enhance the reliability of safety information and allow the implementation of more effective risk assessment processes. Previous researchers have identified several barriers that influence the effectiveness of safety reporting systems, ranging from individual barriers to organisational issues. However, none of these studies has addressed the concomitant effect of the different barriers as a means of determining the overall effect on the performance of existing reporting systems. This paper proposes a holistic approach to this problem by developing a model that can help to determine the cumulative effect of organisational, working environment and individual barriers on the performance of a safety reporting system in an aviation organisation. The Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) technique was used to examine the relationships amongst the different variables considered in our study. The model was constructed using a broad range of data collected from a survey conducted in a military aviation organisation, with the purpose of identifying the barriers to reporting in this particular context. Results show that the proposed model allows to accurately quantify the impact of the various concomitant barriers in the reporting system, providing a powerful resource to assist stakeholders in the decision-making process that is inherent to the implementation of tailored actions to improve the safety performance of aviation organisations.