Will Voluntary and Educational Programs Meet Environmental Objectives? Evidence from a Survey of New York Dairy Farms

This paper presents the results from a survey of New York dairy farms that links manure management practices and farmer willingness to participate in voluntary environmental programs, focusing on those operations that are not automatically designated as Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations. A wide divergence is found between actual and recommended manure management practices on individual dairy farms (high), the apparent ability of farms to divert financial resources to environmental practices (mixed), and the willingness to participate in voluntary programs at various annual costs per cow (low). These findings have policy implications for the USDA/USEPA National Strategy for Animal Feeding Operations.     

Determining farm effects attributable to the introduction and use of a dairy management information system in The Netherlands

Yearly production and reproduction data on dairy farms in The Netherlands were obtained to determine whether management information systems significantly improved herd performance variables (management information systems (MIS) effects). The analysis included 357 adopters of a management information system and 357 herds were used as controls. The data comprised years 1987 through 1996, and included for the adopters both the ‘before’ and ‘after’ period. Panel data analysis enabled to estimate MIS effects both within and between farms, allowing for a separation of farm‐specific effects and common (trend) effects. Adoption and use of a management information system resulted in a significant annual increase in rolling herd average milk (carrier) and protein production of 62 and 2.36 kg per cow, respectively. Calving interval was shortened by 5 days. The pay‐back period was approximately 5 years of the system (including the hardware), and therefore, MIS appears to be economically profitable.     

我国奶业市场结构的量化评估、机制分析及规制理路

目的 21世纪以来我国奶业快速发展,市场结构不断呈现新状态和新特征。通过综合研判我国奶业市场的结构类型,进而分析我国现阶段市场结构类型形成的动因及影响,并对奶业寡头垄断市场的政府规制理路提出建议。方法 文章基于2001—2020年《中国奶业年鉴》及企业年报整理所得数据,利用行业集中度指数、洛伦兹曲线与基尼系数、赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数、熵指数综合研判了我国奶业市场的结构类型,进而分析形成动因及影响,并结合国内外经验对奶业寡头垄断市场的政府规制理路提出建议。结果 （1）近20年我国奶业市场结构呈现3阶段变化,2004年及以前处于垄断竞争阶段;2005—2016年处于垄断竞争向寡头垄断过渡阶段;2017年及以后进入初级双寡头垄断阶段。（2）我国奶业初级双寡头垄断市场结构是来自市场竞争的自然形成,规模效应、行业壁垒和全球化趋势是寡头垄断市场形成的主因。结论 现阶段我国奶业市场已进入初级的寡头垄断阶段,寡头垄断市场有利有弊,我国应从制度上进行顶层设计,发挥寡头垄断模式的积极作用,减少其负面效应的影响,保障奶业持续健康发展。     

POPULATION DYNAMICS AND MILK SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE US LAKE STATES

This paper develops a dynamic model of a dairy cow population and of milk supply response. When applied to the US Lake States, the model provides evidence against the Nerlovian model. It suggests that the pattern of dynamic effects of prices on cow numbers varies for different prices. The estimated dynamic supply elasticities provide some useful information on the nature of dairy production adjustments. For example, the response of milk supply to market prices is found to be very inelastic in the short run. It takes at least 7 years of sustained change to obtain an elastic response to milk price. Also, feed price and slaughter cow price are found to have smaller effects on dairy supply than milk price, but larger effects than risk, hay price or capital cost.     

Crossbred cow adoption and its correlates: Countable adoption specification search in Sri Lanka's small holder dairy sector

Considerable specification choice confronts countable adoption investigations and there is need to measure, formally, the evidence in favor of competing formulations. This article presents alternative countable adoption specifications—hitherto neglected in the agricultural‐economics literature—and assesses formally their usefulness to practitioners. Reference to the left side of de Finetti's (1937) famous representation theorem motivates Bayesian unification of agricultural adoption studies and facilitates comparisons with conventional binary‐choice specifications. Such comparisons have not previously been considered. The various formulations and the specific techniques are highlighted in an application to crossbred cow adoption in Sri Lanka's small‐holder dairy sector.     

Cost‐Effective Control Strategies for Johne's Disease in Dairy Herds

Johne's disease (JD), or paratuberculosis, is an incurable and infectious disease of ruminants, caused by infection with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP), and costing an estimated CAD$15 million in Canada and US$200–$250 million in the United States. This study examines the economic and epidemiological consequences of various MAP control options in the context of controlling JD in dairy herds. A discrete optimal control model is developed utilizing the disease‐specific animal compartment model and maximizing the net present value of a dairy operation. The results identify the optimal control option together with the associated herd dynamics and optimal culling rates of cows in different infection states. The results show that comprehensive, effective, and profitable JD control programs can be developed for dairy farms.     

The effect of forage quality on predicted enteric methane production from dairy cows

The current study is aimed at determining the effect of different grass silages on enteric methane production from dairy cows and to determine the effect of changing the forage/concentrate ratio on enteric methane production. In the current study, enteric methane was not measured from animals, rather it was estimated using existing equations from the literature. Rations were formulated using six grass forages as the core for the rations. An existing model (SAC FeedByte), which simulates the physical processes based on least cost diet formulation and linear programming modelling, was used to formulate the rations. Enteric methane (/cow/day) that would be produced had a cow been fed that ration was calculated using a set of two different equations. The proportion of concentrates relative to the silage had a significant (p < 0.001) effect on enteric methane production. The results showed that high-quality silage resulted in low enteric methane emissions/litre of milk. Also, a high proportion of concentrate in the ration resulted in low amount of enteric methane produced/kg of milk. Carbon footprinting of dairy production systems should, therefore, account for the variation in forage quality.     

USING INPUT DEMAND AND PRODUCTION FUNCTION MODELS TO ASSESS THE NET BENEFITS OF DAIRY HERD IMPROVEMENT

Two methods of evaluating (the net social benefits of the dairy herd-improvement scheme operated by the New South Wales Department of Agriculture are described. The first involves derivation of 'an input demand' function for the herd-recording aspect of the scheme and use of this function to estimate the economic surplus (net of both private and public costs) provided by the service. The second approach involves deriving a production function for milk from which it is possible to estimate the contribution herd-recording and artificial breeding have made to increasing milk yields per cow. Social benefits are shown to have been less than social costs for herd-recording, however dairy farmers have made net private gains. The herd-recording scheme has contained a regressive subsidy element. The production function approach show that artificial breeding and herd-recording were profitable complements in production.     

Hybridizing local and generic information to model cropping system spatial distribution in an agricultural landscape

For quantitative water management, fine analysis of spatial and temporal interactions between cropping systems and water resources helps identify time and site-specific withdrawal situations. However, it is a methodological challenge to provide fine-resolution analyses at the scale of large watersheds used for crises management. In this study, we present a methodology based on multiple methods and mixed sources of information to finely model an agricultural landscape (AL) that represents the spatial distribution of cropping systems. Our approach is based on progressively hybridizing databases and local actors' and experts' knowledge to produce a spatially explicit and dynamic model. The Land Parcel Identification System database, which resulted from the European Common Agricultural Policy, is crucial for our method since it provides the spatial and temporal basis of our model (i.e., geographic delineation of islets and information about crop sequences). Local knowledge is used to identify factors determining spatial distribution of cropping systems and to build a generic model that simulates farmers' crop-management strategies. The model was qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated using a multi-agent simulation platform (MAELIA). We asked local experts on quantitative water management to evaluate the ability of the platform to reproduce intra- and inter-annual dynamics at different levels when using our model of the AL as input. The experts were satisfied with the results; they validated the predicted dynamics of the variables, and some discussed the objectivity of the values. We discuss the method’s contribution to current challenges in modeling large agricultural areas and the associated tradeoffs. The approach is promising for policy makers who wish to develop integrated, locally adapted land-management strategies.     

Household‐level Impacts of Dairy Cow Ownership in Coastal Kenya

This study uses heteroskedastic Tobit and Censored Least Absolute Deviations models to examine the impacts of dairy cow ownership on selected outcomes for a sample of 184 households in coastal Kenya. The outcomes examined include gross household cash income, gross non‐agricultural income, consumption of dairy products, time allocated to cattle‐related tasks, number of labourers hired and total wage payments to hired labourers. The number of dairy cows owned has a large and statistically significant impact on household cash income; each cow owned increased income by at least 53% of the mean total income of households without dairy cows. Dairy cow ownership also increases consumption of dairy products by 1.0 litre per week, even though most of the increase in milk production is sold. The number of dairy cows has no significant effect on total labour for cattle‐related tasks. However, in contrast to previous studies, labour allocation to cattle by household members decreases and labour requirements for dairy cows are met primarily by an increase in hired labour. Dairy cow ownership results in relatively modest increases in payments to hired labourers and the number of hired labourers employed. The large positive impacts on income and the substitution of hired for household labour in cattle care suggest that intensification of smallholder dairying can be beneficial as a development strategy in the region if disease and feed constraints are addressed.     

基于三方演化博弈的中国乳制品集聚形成机制及对策研究

目的 随着国内乳制品产业的发展,乳业集聚格局特征日趋明显,不仅有助于提高产业内分工水平、产业竞争力,而且在培育本土品牌,解决市场失灵等方面发挥重要作用。方法 文章针对当前我国乳制品产业国际竞争力弱、市场信心疲软、质量安全余波未消、原料成本高—产品价格低的两难困境,通过构建演化博弈模型,分析奶农、奶站、乳制品企业选择集中规模化策略行为的演化博弈稳定策略,在此基础上,根据产业行为主体决策,分析乳制品产业集聚形成机制。结果 三方博弈主体的演化均衡策略的变化受各自支付矩阵影响,进而从微观个体的复制决策,在要素、资源禀赋等推动下,围绕利益相关主体,实现国内乳制品产业集聚的形成。结论 引导区域乳制品产业集聚、加强乳制品质量管控力度、提高行业管理与检测水平等有助于高效促进乳业集聚形成,培育国内乳业竞争力。     

How can trade partners be chosen when facing food scandals? China's milk scandal as a natural experiment

Using China's milk scandal as a natural experiment, this paper explores whether the countries of origin and export destinations have the same responses to the original country's food scandal. Our difference-in-difference estimation shows that the outbreak of China's milk scandal had asymmetric impacts on China's total imports (increased by 23.4%) and exports (sharply dropped by 65.8%). The results further show that China's milk scandal contributed to import increases from European and Oceanian countries. Moreover, China's milk scandal worsened exports, mainly those going to neighbouring Asian regions but increased exports to Oceania. A product quality index is constructed to explain this finding. Intuitively, consumers' perceived quality of Chinese products declined, and they tended to consume products from other countries. The lower the product quality was with those in China, the lower the perceived quality and safety, thereby affecting demand. During the scandal, Chinese consumers tended to buy high-quality dairy products from Europe and Oceania rather than the perceived unreliable dairy products produced by China or neighbouring countries. We conclude that product quality plays a key role in imports and exports when facing food scandals.     

Entry, Exit, and Farm Size: Assessing an Experiment in Dairy Price Policy

This article models and estimates the forces behind farm exits and changes in herd-size among Connecticut dairy farms under the New England Dairy Compact. A model of sunk costs and farm capital investment is used to specify two econometric estimations: a random effects probit model of farm entry and exit and an autocorrelated generalized least squares panel data model of farm size. The Dairy Compact's price strategy reduced farm exits and moderately increased cow numbers. In contrast, development pressures and historically low unemployment rates increased farm exits.     

居民收入增长对乳制品消费影响及作用机制研究

目的 优化乳制品消费结构、推动消费方式多元化发展,能够在保持消费总量稳定增长的同时,多途径提升乳制品消费水平,加快乳制品消费转型升级,助力居民营养健康。方法 文章利用2009—2018年“中国健康与营养调查”面板数据,分析了我国居民收入增长对乳制品消费的影响,并着重讨论了城乡之间的因素差异。结果 （1）收入增长可显著提升城乡居民乳制品消费量,在利用IV-Hekit模型克服内生性后,结论依然稳健;（2）收入增长可通过丰富乳品消费种类加快乳品消费结构升级、增加乳品消费频次形成结构化膳食两条路径增加乳制品消费;（3）城市居民收入增长对乳制品消费量的正向作用更明显,城市居民收入增长对乳制品消费种类和消费频次的提升作用约为农村居民的两倍。结论 增加城乡居民对乳制品的消费,需引导居民形成多元化健康饮食方式,带动乳制品加工营养化高值化,推动地方特色乳业发展;强化乳制品消费引导和配送体系建设;组织实施低收入人群营养改善计划,保障弱势群体食物基本供给和营养不断改善。     

Effects of North American BSE Events on U.S. Cattle Prices

In May 2003, a beef cow in the Province of Alberta tested positive for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE or mad cow disease). In December of 2003, a dairy cow in the state of Washington also tested positive for BSE. These discoveries disrupted cattle and beef trade in North America and major export markets. We examine the effects of these two North American BSE events on U.S. fed and feeder cattle prices. The results indicate that the demand for U.S. beef was affected to a much greater degree by the reactions of foreign governments to the BSE announcements than by the reactions of U.S. households.     

Credit constraints and smallholder dairy production in the East African highlands: application of a switching regression model

Accurate assessment of farmers' credit constraint condition is important in order to understand the circumstances under which credit would have its greatest impact. In this study a switching regression model was used to determine the impact of credit on smallholder dairy farms in the East African highlands using farm level data from Ethiopia and Kenya. Farmers were classified as credit constrained or credit non-constrained based on their responses from the farm level surveys. No consistent relationship was found between farmers' credit constraint condition and their borrowing status. Most of the variation in milk output per farm was explained by the number of crossbred milking cows in the dairy herd. As credit is likely to facilitate investment in crossbred dairy cows it will have substantial impacts on smallholder dairy farms especially if it is targeted to credit constrained farms.     

Agroindustrialization through institutional innovation Transaction costs, cooperatives and milk-market development in the east-African highlands

Some small-holders are able to generate reliable and substantial income flows through small-scale dairy production for the local market; for others, a set of unique transaction costs hinders participation. Cooperative selling institutions are potential catalysts for mitigating these costs, stimulating entry into the market, and promoting growth in rural communities. Trends in cooperative organization in east-African dairy are evaluated. Empirical work focuses on alternative techniques for effecting participation among a representative sample of peri-urban milk producers in the Ethiopian highlands. The variables considered are a modern production practice (cross-bred cow use), a traditional production practice (indigenous-cow use), three intellectual-capital-forming variables (experience, education, and extension), and the provision of infrastructure (as measured by time to transport milk to market). A Tobit analysis of marketable surplus generates precise estimates of non-participants' 'distances' to market and their reservation levels of the covariates — measures of the inputs necessary to sustain and enhance the market. Policy implications focus on the availability of cross-bred stock and the level of market infrastructure, both of which have marked effects on participation, the velocity of transactions in the local community and, inevitably, the social returns to agroindustrialization.     

Impacts of trade liberalization in Canada's supply managed dairy industry

Trade is an integral part of the Canadian economy. The main institutional drivers governing trade are bilateral and multilateral agreements outlining permissible trade distorting measures. Since its inception in 1972, Canada's supply management system has remained protected throughout trade negotiations. The system appears, by any economic measure, to be having an increasingly disproportional influence in recent trade negotiations. However, trade agreements serve not only to maximize social surplus, but also to maximize some measure of political welfare. Canada has recently negotiated three prominent trade agreements: the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) came into effect in the latter part of 2017; the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) came into effect at the end of 2018; and the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) could come into effect in 2020. Collectively, these agreements have guaranteed increased market access for fresh and processed dairy products. We build a spatial partial equilibrium model of the Canadian dairy industry consisting of three regions and 10 commodities to assess the individual and cumulative effect of these trade agreements. We pay particular attention to the institutional drivers within today's dairy sector: milk protein isolates; component pricing, including Class 7; and differential demand growth. We find that the aggregate impacts are: (a) a 1.4% decrease in the marginal retail price; (b) a 4.8% decrease in the blended producer price; and (c) an overall increase in social welfare of 7.8%. Worth noting, the decrease in producer surplus varies from 0.7% in the western region to 1.5% in Ontario. Our results may be relevant to future negotiations as well as the publicly promised compensation package for dairy producers.     

Agricultural Policies and Structural Change in French Dairy Farms: A Nonstationary Markov Model

The aim of this paper is to gain an understanding into how agricultural policies have affected structural change in the French dairy sector. A nonstationary Markov model is estimated using a Generalized Cross Entropy approach. Results show that while the price of cow's milk encourages farm growth, direct payments and quota restriction favor small farms. The price signal is a key factor of structural change. As a result, higher milk prices may accelerate the trend toward the further growth of dairy farms. Settlement policy and technical change seem not to slow this trend.     

PRODUCTION CHOICE IN THE ENGLAND AND WALES DAIRY SECTOR

This paper seeks to develop the understanding of the ways in which factors other than price influence the production decisions of dairy farmers. A theoretical model based on a profit function is used to emphasise the way in which changes in the farm's technological environment will influence its production choices. The theoretical model is used as the basis of an empirical study of production choice in the England and Wales dairy sector. Elasticities and factor biases are reported.