什么决定了居民对再分配的需求

本文利用微观调查数据,分析居民再分配需求的决定因素。研究发现：穷人比富人更加支持再分配,但收入的边际效应很小,收入分配问题并不会随收入的增加而自然解决。认为当前社会总体不公平的居民对再分配的诉求更高,且其边际作用最大。与同辈相比社会经济地位更低的人对再分配的需求更高。向下的流动性会增加人们对再分配的需求,这部分支持了＂POUM＂假说,并提醒我们应该警惕＂流动性红利＂减弱所导致的再分配需求上升。中国社会特殊的转型特征与再分配需求密切相关。西部地区比东部地区,事业单位比党政机关的居民对收入调节的诉求更强烈。与新型都市社区的居民相比,其他类型社区的居民都更加支持均富的收入调节政策。此外,一些人口统计学变量也有显著影响。     

The Timing of Redistribution

We investigate whether late redistribution programs that can be targeted toward low income families, but that may distort savings decisions, can “dominate” early redistribution programs that cannot be targeted as a result of information constraints. We use simple two‐period overlapping generations models with heterogeneous agents under six policy regimes: a model calibrated to the U.S. economy (benchmark), two early redistribution (lump sum) regimes, two (targeted) late redistribution regimes, and finally a model without taxes and redistribution. Redistribution programs are financed by a labor tax on the young generation and a capital tax on the old generation. We argue that if the programs are small in size, late redistribution can dominate early redistribution in terms of welfare but not in terms of real output. Better targeting of low income households cannot completely offset savings distortions. In addition, we find that the optimal transfer and tax policy implies a capital tax of 100% and transfers exclusively to the young generation.     

Personal Income Tax Reform in China in 2018 and Its Impact on Income Distribution

In the context of personal income tax (PIT) reform in China in 2018, this paper examines some of the major issues of concern regarding the reform and income distribution. Using the China Personal Income Tax Micro‐simulation model, the paper compares the differences between the 2011 and 2018 PIT systems, and finds that residents relying on different income sources may face a large degree of real tax rate change. Once the tax system is altered to PIT 2018, the coverage of PIT for wage earners will decrease from 46.9 to 23.4 percent, the income redistributive effect will drop from 1.95 to 1.22 percent and the PIT's role in fiscal revenue will also be negatively affected. Nevertheless, if individual income continues to grow, the share of PIT in fiscal revenue is expected to return to the 2018 level in 2022, but its income redistribution function is difficult to recover in the short term. The paper finds that the effect of PIT on income distribution depends on the tax structure. Gradual transition to an “entirely comprehensive” tax system when conditions are appropriate will achieve better income redistribution results at a lower average tax rate.     

Income Uncertainty and Optimal Redistribution

Implications of income uncertainty for socially efficient redistribution are examined. Counter-intuitively, a policymaker may respond optimally to a negative utility shock in the economy by redistributing income away from those who suffered the shock. In particular, it may be welfare enhancing to redistribute income away from risk-averse taxpayers who suffer an increase in the variance of their earnings. The direction of redistribution following an increase in uncertainty depends on the degree to which absolute risk aversion declines with consumption. A condition is provided for when an efficient policy redistributes away from those facing the greatest uncertainty.     

Genes and Social Mobility: A Case for Progressive Income Tax

Abstract

The effect of ability inheritance on income distribution and social mobility is analyzed with an emphsis on the role of progressive income tax. Epstein–Zin style utility function is used to highlight the role of risk aversion. The result shows that higher genetic inheritability leads to lower per capita income, higher income variance and lower aggregate welfare at the steady state. This tendency is intensified when the elasticity of a child's income to parent's educational investment is higher. In this setup, it is shown that progressive income tax can be a welfare-enhancing tool by increasing social mobility. The optimal progressive income tax rate is obtained in the benchmark model and its positive effect is discussed in the context of “Veil of ignorance”, a concept proposed by Rawls (A Theory of Justice (Cambridge, MA: Harvard, University Press), 1971).     

Trade in factor income and the US-China trade balance

US multindoational enterprises sell considerable amounts of products to China's domestic consumers that are “made” in either China or other countries. However, these sales are not counted as US exports to China. To account for this, we propose a beyond-borders approach to measuring trade flows that explicitly considers firm ownership, termed “trade in factor income (TiFI),” that defines the US-owned factor income induced by China's final demand as US exports to China. Applying this approach to OECD data, we find that on average from 2005 to 2016 in TiFI terms, US exports to China were 20.34% and 8.21% greater, China's exports to the US were 1.64% and 16.04% less, and the US trade deficits with China were 17.4% and 32.0% less than the trade figures reported in value added and gross terms, respectively. The concept of TiFI transforms trade measures from a territory-based “made in” label to a factor income-based “created by” label.     

Sibling Rivalry and Strategic Parental Transfers

This paper develops a noncooperative Nash model in which two siblings compete for their parents' financial transfers. Treating sibling rivalry as a “rent-seeking contest” and using a Tullock-Skaperdas contest success function, we derive the conditions under which more financial resources are transferred to the sibling with lower earnings. We find that parental transfers are compensatory and that the family as an institution serves as an “income equalizer.” Within a sequential game framework, we characterize the endogeneity of parental transfers and link it to parents' income, altruism, and children's supply of merit goods (e.g., parent-child companionship or child services). We show that merit goods are subject to a “moral hazard” problem from the parents' perspective.     

Dual Job Holding and the Gig Economy: Allocation of Effort across Primary and Gig Jobs

This article explored motivations for allocating effort between “gig” and primary jobs using a sample of Amazon Mechanical Turk workers. We found that main job hour constraints, a commonly cited rationale for traditional moonlighting, were a motivation for men but not for women. Other factors affecting effort were also gender specific: Men were driven to spend more time on gig jobs to increase their incomes, while women were motivated by insecurity in their main job. Women, though not men, who were more depressed based on the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale earned less in their gig economy job. Finally, higher risk aversion reduced income from gig work for men, but not women. We concluded that motivations for effort allocated between the primary and gig jobs differ from those identified in past literature as important for traditional moonlighting decisions.     

Beneficial Inequality in the Provision of Municipal Services: Why Rich Neighborhoods Should Get Plowed First

This paper provides an explanation for the common observation that higher income neighborhoods typically receive better public services compared with lower income neighborhoods. Intuitively, one might expect that lower income groups, which usually form the voting majority of cities, would object to an unfair allocation of this nature. Wealthy individuals, however, have the option of moving to the suburbs. As we learn from the tax competition literature, mobile factors are generally able to command a premium. Since institutional constraints prevent regressive taxation and public goods are by definition consumed in equal quantity by all agents, only public services remain as an instrument for municipalities to use to keep wealthy agents in their tax base. We show that both rich and poor agents benefit from this differential access to public services and explore how factors like the ratio of rich to poor and the differences between their incomes affect the equilibrium allocation.     

Asia's quest for inclusive growth revisited

Despite the rapid economic growth and poverty reduction, inequality in Asia worsened during the last two decades. We focus on the determinants of growth inclusiveness and suggest options for reform. A cross-country empirical analysis suggests that fiscal redistribution, monetary policy aimed at macro stability, and structural reforms to stimulate trade, reduce unemployment and increase productivity are important determinants of inclusive growth. The main policy implication of our analysis is that there is still room to strengthen such policies in Asia to better achieve growth with shared prosperity. In particular, scenario simulations based on our results suggests that the effect of expanding fiscal redistribution on inclusive growth could be sizeable in emerging Asia, since the estimated improvement in our proxy of inclusive growth—a measure of growth in average income “corrected” for the equity impact—ranges from about 1% to about 8% points.     

Consumption based estimates of urban Chinese growth

This paper estimates the household income growth rates implied by food demand in a sample of urban Chinese households in 1993–2005. Our estimates, based on Engel curves for food consumption, indicate an average per capita income growth of 6.8% per year in 1993–2005. This figure is slightly larger than the 5.9% per year obtained by deflating nominal incomes by the CPI. We attribute this discrepancy to a small bias in the CPI, which is of a similar magnitude to the one often associated with the CPI in the United States. This result supports the view that Chinese price statistics are reliable. Our estimates indicate stronger gains among poorer households, suggesting that urban inflation up to 2005 in China was “pro-poor,” in the sense that the increase in the cost of living for poorer households was smaller than for the average one.     

Poverty Alleviation and Tropical Forests—What Scope for Synergies?

This paper explores the “state-of-the-art” of the two-way causal links between poverty alleviation and natural tropical forests. Microimpacts of rising poverty can increase or slow forest loss. At the macrolevel, poverty also has an ambiguous effect, but it is probable that higher income stimulates forest loss by raising demand for agricultural land. The second question is what potential forest-led development has to alleviate a country's poverty, in terms of producer benefits, consumer benefits and economy-wide employment. Natural forests widely serve as “safety nets” for the rural poor, but it proves difficult to raise producer benefits significantly. Urban consumer benefits from forest, an important target for pro-poor agricultural innovation, are limited and seldom favor the poor. Absorption of (poor) unskilled labor is low in forestry, which tends to be capital-intensive. Natural forests may thus lack comparative advantage for poverty alleviation. There are few “win–win” synergies between natural forests and national poverty reduction, which may help to explain why the loss of tropical forests is ongoing. This may have important implications for our understanding of “sustainable forest development” and for the design of both conservation and poverty-alleviation strategies.     

劳动力成本与产业结构升级

基于新《劳动合同法》实施引发的社会现象,提出社会经济活动的非良性循环：劳动者收入低→高技术含量、高附加值的商品需求不足→产业结构层级低→劳动密集型低端产品出口→竞争力弱→产业利润低→劳动者收入低;分析了劳动力成本、消费结构与产业结构三者的联系,深入挖掘了提高劳动力成本,促进企业推动产业升级以及有助于为产业升级储备高素质人才的机理;揭示了劳动力成本是影响产业结构升级的重要因素。提高劳动力成本能够从扩大内需、提高劳动力素质和企业综合竞争力等方面促进产业结构升级,是经济发展和社会进步的必然要求。     

Going Home: Evacuation-Migration Decisions of Hurricane Katrina Survivors

In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, many evacuees from the Gulf region began the difficult process of deciding whether to rebuild or restart elsewhere. We examine pre-Katrina Gulf residents' decision to return to the postdisaster Gulf region—which we call the “return migration” decision. We estimate two separate return migration models, first using data from a mail survey of individuals in the affected region and then focusing on self-administered questionnaires of evacuees in Houston. Our results indicate that return migration can be affected by household income; age; education level; and employment, marital, and home ownership status, but the results depend on the population under consideration. We find no effect of “connection to place” on the return migration decision. Although the effect of income is relatively small within subsamples, we find a much higher proportion of middle income households planning to return than lower income households when comparing across the subsamples. In addition, the real wage differential between home and host region influences the likelihood of return. Larger implicit costs, in terms of foregone wages for returning, induce a lower likelihood of return. Exploiting this difference at the individual level, we are able to produce estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) to return home. Average WTP to return home for a sample of relatively poor households is estimated at $1.94 per hour or $3954 per year.     

收入分配与中国居民消费——理论和基于中国的实证研究

本文研究了城乡收入差距扩大对中国居民消费需求的影响.基于生命周期框架的理论研究表明,收入水平越高,居民平均消费倾向和边际消费倾向越低;收入差距越大,居民消费需求越低.文章使用1978—2008年我国28个省、市、自治区的面板数据对理论模型进行了实证检验.结果显示,收入水平提高10000元,居民平均消费倾向下降25.6%,边际消费倾向下降7%;城乡收入差距扩大1单位,居民消费率下降6.5个百分点.数值模拟结果表明,城乡收入差距扩大导致居民消费率在2000—2008年间下降了3.42个百分点,解释了这一期间居民消费率下降的30.8%     

The Poverty of Politics: How Income Redistribution Hurts the Poor

In spite of the significant research literature identifying a tradeoff between income redistribution and economic growth, massive public programs have been implemented to help the poor by transferring income to them. Since Lyndon Johnson's war on poverty began in 1964, over 3.5 trillion dollars have been transferred. However, the possibility that everyone, including the poor, may in fact be made worse off by the transfer has largely been ignored. With a simple algebraic model, the authors demonstrate that, over time, both high and low-income groups are harmed by redistribution. In addition, social mobility, as well as political concerns with relative poverty and international income redistribution increases the damage to all income groups produced by redistribution.     

The Effect of Land Restitution on Poverty Reduction among the Khomani San “Bushmen” in South Africa

This paper looks at the impact of land restitution involving the Khomani San “bushmen” in the Kgalagadi area of South Africa. It seeks to investigate the effect of land restitution on poverty reduction among the beneficiaries. We run two‐stage least squares models of access to nature, per capita income and poverty status on the use of restituted land, among other variables. Our results suggest that the Khomani San beneficiaries have gotten more access to natural resources but that the use of restituted land has neither increased per capita income nor reduced poverty. In fact, the use of restituted land has contributed to increased poverty. Therefore, land restitution should become part of a broader, carefully crafted rural developmental strategy for it to be effective in reducing poverty. Otherwise, land restitution risks enabling indigenous communities to continue with their “traditional” way of life, and in fact thereby keep them poor.     

Old Age Security： A Case from Rural Suzhou

I. Introduction A traditional pattern of old age support in the rural society of China can be characterized asthat of a family taking full responsibility in caring for its elderly. During the 1950s, a “Five Guarantee System” was established in the People’s Communes for protecting those who have no kin and cannot support themselves, with the guarantee of food, clothing, housing, medical treatment and burial expenses. Moreover, in the cases where poor villages could not meet the basic need…     

Village Elections,Accountability and Income Distribution in Rural China

1. Introduction The village election was first envisioned by the late chairman of the National People’sCongress (NPC), Mr Peng Zhen, in the mid-1980s to enhance village governance after the commune system was dissolved in China in the early 1980s. In 1987, the NPC passed a tentative version of The Organic Law of the Village Committee (OLVC), and started a 10 year experiment of village elections. In 1998, the NPC formally passed the law and elections quickly spread to the whole count…     

WATER DEMAND AND THE URBAN POOR: A STUDY OF THE FACTORS INFLUENCING WATER CONSUMPTION AMONG HOUSHOLDS IN CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA

Water demand management is a key focus area for most water managers and even more so in developing countries since improved access to water is important to the poor. Different policies have been introduced to ensure a water management system th at cares for the poor, among them the Increasing Block Tariff (IBT) structure. Studies demonstrate that it is very important to know the shape of the demand curve when deciding on the IBT structure. This paper adds to the understanding of the factors that influence water consumption. The focus is on how water demand patterns vary with the level of income among urban dwellers. The results support the hypothesis that pricing is an ineffective measure to manage water consumption among the poor, while it is relatively more effective for the richest group. Therefore, redistribution using water pricing policy will hardly work.