Market Underreaction and Overreaction of Technology Stocks

Several studies have assessed stock market under- or overreaction of stocks and there is some agreement among them. However, there is much disagreement about what constitutes market underreaction or overreaction, and the conditions that cause it. The substantial variation in results among studies may be partially attributed to the types of firms that are contained in any sample. We investigate this premise by focusing on a sample of technology stocks that experienced an extreme change in stock price, along with a corresponding control sample of non-technology stocks that experienced a similar extreme change in stock price on the same day.

Based on the subsequent stock price behavior of each sample, we find a greater degree of overreaction within extreme positive changes in technology stock prices (winners) than in non-technology stock prices. In addition, we find a greater degree of underreaction within extreme negative changes in technology stock prices (losers) than in non-technology stock prices. When considering winners and losers collectively for technology and non-technology firms, it appears the market is overoptimistic when it initially revalues technology stock prices relative to non-technology stock prices.

The degree of under- or overreaction of technology stocks varies within the sample of technology stocks, and is conditioned on firm-specific characteristics. Overall, our results suggest that technology stocks exhibit unique stock price behavior subsequent to an extreme change in price, and that this unique behavior can even vary among technology firms according to firm-specific characteristics.     

A dynamic model of OPEC trade and production

A dynamic simulation model is presented of the world energy market, covering the period 1974–1995. It is used to assess and rank six possible price or output policies that OPEC may adopt with respect to oil exports, given a range of assumptions relating to such important variables as the rate of growth of domestic absorption of oil revenues within OPEC, the rate of capacity expansion for oil production, the responsiveness of investment in alternative sources of energy to changes in oil prices, and the rate of growth of world demand for energy. Furthermore, an illustrative analysis is given of possible conflict situations within OPEC, and their impact on the choice of price or output policy is discussed. The main conclusion drawn is that the supply response of alternative energy sources to OPEC oil will be the key to predicting whether oil prices will go up or down.     

Optimization agricultural production under financial risk of water constraint in the Jordan Valley

Using high-frequency data the co-movements among crude oil prices are analysed in order to address the question of regionalization of the world crude oil market. Time-series econometrics in the form of error-correction modelling is applied for daily crude oil price data covering the time period 1988 to 2004 and in this framework topics like weak and strong exogeneity among three major oil prices – represented by Brent, OPEC and Texas (WTI) – are addressed. The empirical results are that causality is most likely bi-directional among these crude oil prices – and hence rejecting a regionalization hypothesis of the global oil market – and also an influence from the OPEC oil price towards Bent and WTI, which are usually claimed to have a benchmark role.     

Exchange Rates and Stock Prices in the MENA Countries: What Role for Oil?

This paper considers the linkage between stock prices and exchange rates in four MENA (Middle East and North Africa) emerging markets. In contrast to the existing evidence that uses a global market index to uncover such a relationship it is found that for the sample countries oil prices emerge as the dominant factor in the above relationship. The paper considers the presence of regime shifts and evidence is found of cointegration only for the period following the 1999 oil price shock. Readjustment towards equilibrium in each stock market occurs via oil price changes. Finally, a number of robustness checks are performed and persistence profiles produced.     

Profitability and supply price in the US domestic oil industry: implications for the political economy of oil in the twenty-first century

In May 2001, the US Government's National Energy Policy DevelopmentGroup proposed to increase investment in domestic oil resourcesand to diversify further the sourcing of US oil imports by increasingproduction in new petroleum provinces. The paper argues thatboth strands of this policy are dependent upon a third, unstated,objective—to ensure that OPEC retains sufficient marketpower to prevent the sort of collapse in world oil prices thatoccurred in 1998–99. The consequences of that collapse,when the real price of US oil fell to its lowest level in 53years, are explored. Finally, it is argued that the outcomeof the crisis was a rapprochement between OPEC and the US. Itis suggested that the consensus between the US and OPEC as tothe desired range within which the world oil price should moveis likely to survive any temporary political disturbances.     

A laboratory study of advertising and price competition

We use a laboratory experiment to study advertising and pricing behavior in a market where consumers differ in price sensitivity. Equilibrium in this market entails variation in the number of firms advertising and price dispersion in advertised prices. We vary the cost to advertise as well as varying the number of competing firms. Theory predicts that advertising costs act as a facilitating device: higher costs increase firm profits at the expense of consumers. We find that higher advertising costs decrease demand for advertising and raise advertised prices, as predicted. Further, this comes at the expense of consumers. However, advertising strategies are more aggressive than theory predicts with the result that firm profits do not increase.     

Equilibrium with capacity-constrained firms: A classroom experiment

The authors develop a two-stage classroom experiment to illustrate convergence to long-run equilibrium in a market where price-taking firms are capacity-constrained. Once equilibrium in the first stage is established, capacity constraints are introduced by imposing discontinuities in the fixed costs of several firms. The experiment demonstrates that this supply shock yields a higher market price and, under assumed parameterization, several higher-cost firms that otherwise are not able to survive in the long-run equilibrium enter the market and earn positive profits.     

Firm return volatility and economic gains: The role of oil prices

In this paper we investigate whether the oil price contributes to stock return volatility for 560 firms listed on the NYSE. Using daily data, we find that the oil price is a significant determinant and predictor of firm return variance. We devise trading strategies based on forecasts of firm return variance using the oil prices and historical averages. We find that investors can make substantial gains in returns by using the oil price in forecasting firm return variances.     

THE CURSE OF WINDFALL GAINS IN A NON RENEWABLE RESOURCE OLIGOPOLY*

In this paper, we consider oligopolistic equilibria in subgame‐perfect strategies in continuous time, and investigate the effect of stock discovery on the profits of non‐identical natural resource oligopolists. We show that a uniform addition to all stocks does not necessarily increase the discounted sum of profits of all firms.     

LARGE FIRMS AND PRICE CONTROL

With the increase in the rate of inflation in recent years, most economists have probably come to accept the need for price control, even though they might oppose it in more normal circumstances. However the view is still very wide- spread -among economists and probably among politicians and the general public – that for an effective system of price control to exist, it is only necessary to control the prices charged by large firms. It is believed that smaller firms will then follow suit, either because they are forced to by the competition of large firms or for some other reason. Recent experience in the U.K. seems to refute this thesis conclusively. It is in the sectors in which small firms predominate that prices rose most rapidly during the two or three years preceding the imposition of price control; this has continued since price control was imposed in November 1972. No explanation of this is attempted, but it is argued that if price control is to be effective it must be extended to all firms irrespective of size. This would raise administrative problems, but it is suggested that these could be dealt with. The character of inflation, like other aspects of the economic situation, can change rapidly. It is possible that with the introduction of the three-day week in British industry in February 1974 (as a consequence of the miners’strike) and the continued rise in import prices (especially the price of oil) the high profits which characterised the years 1971, 1972 and 1973 in Britain will prove to be temporary. However the basic point remains. During these years, the rise in profits added significantly to the increase in retail prices, and this rise took place not only in sectors where large firms are found but also in sectors characterised by the predominance of small and medium-size firms.     

Oil price and automobile stock return co-movement: A wavelet coherence analysis

This paper explores possible co-movement between oil price and automobile stock return in a joint time-frequency domain. Daily price series from August 01, 1996 to June 20, 2017 is used in this analysis. The results indicate that the co-movement between oil price and automobile stock return is strong during November, 2000–December, 2002 and March, 2006–December, 2009. The co-movement is found to be more pronounced in the long-term and stock return is sensitive to the higher oil price emanating from the demand shock. This contravenes the conventional wisdom that crude oil is always counter-cyclical to the automobile stocks. For investor, this weakens the probable gain from including oil asset in a portfolio of automobile stocks as crude oil does not offer cushion against bearish automobile stock markets during the crisis period.     

Impact of oil prices on firm stock return: industry-wise analysis

The study investigates the impact of oil prices on firm-level stock returns in case of Pakistan over the period 1998–2014, as this relationship is neglected by the previous literature. By using the panel data estimation, the results of full sample indicate significant positive effect of oil price changes on firm stock returns in the same period, whereas the lagged oil price changes have significant negative effect on firms’ stock return. Moreover, the industry-level analysis also confirms the similar findings; results indicate significant positive impact of oil price on firms’ stock return in full sample, textile, chemical and miscellaneous industry, while the lagged oil price changes negatively affect the stock returns of full sample and all the industries except tobacco, jute and vanaspati industries. The study confirms that rise in oil price transfers a positive signal in the stock market that boosts the firm-level stock returns in Pakistan. In contrast to the negative shocks, the stock returns are significantly affected by the positive oil price shocks.     

The market power of OPEC 1973–2001

We apply a multi-equation dynamic econometric model on monthly data to test if the behaviour of OPEC as a whole or different sub-groups of the cartel is consistent with the characteristics of dominant producers on the world crude oil market in the period 1973–2001. Our results indicate that the producers outside OPEC can be described as competitive producers, taking the oil price as given and maximizing profits. The OPEC members do not fit the behaviour of price-taking producers. Our findings of low residual demand price elasticities for OPEC underpin the potential market power of the producer group, and are in line with the results in some recent energy studies. On the other hand, our findings indicate that neither OPEC nor different sub-groups of the cartel can be characterized as a dominant producer in the period 1973–1994. However, we find that the characteristics of a dominant producer to some extent fit OPEC-Core as from 1994. Thus, although OPEC clearly has affected the market price, the producer group has not behaved as a pure profit-maximizing dominant producer.     

Financial leverage and market volatility with diverse beliefs

We study a general equilibrium model of asset trading with financial leverage, where the investors can engage in speculative trading with diverse beliefs about the asset??s fundamental value. We show that an increase in the leverage ratio causes the stock price to rise in the current period through a ??leverage effect??, and will result in more borrowing and more stock purchase that pumps the stock price higher in the subsequent period, known as the ??pyramiding effect??. There can also be a ??depyramiding effect?? when the price falls because lenders issue margin calls and force stock sales, contributing to further stock price plummeting. Price changes from depyramiding effect, however, may not take effect when margin calls are not triggered. We demonstrate that, under certain conditions, decreasing leverage ratios leads to lower stock price volatility, measured by the variation of prices caused by an exogenous shock, when the shock is unanticipated. The influences of dispersion of beliefs and available investment funds on the relation between financial leverage and market volatility are also examined. When the shock is anticipated, we demonstrate that reducing leverage ratios may not lower stock price volatility, which poses an important challenge to future studies on this issue.     

Exchange rate pass-through in deflation: The case of Taiwan

This paper incorporates deflation in an analysis of the relationship between the exchange rate pass-through and inflation. Using a nonlinear model based on monthly data of Taiwan's import prices from 1981 to 2008, we find that the degree of exchange rate pass-through is increasing in deflation. The increase becomes smaller when the price of oil is excluded. Evidence for pass-through increasing in deflation has not previously been found in the existing literature and presents a new understanding of the pricing behavior of firms. Poor profits in deflation cause firms to pass through most of the cost of exchange rate changes to their products to avoid exiting the market.     

我国股市涨跌幅限制日内效应的实证研究

本文利用我国沪市ST股和普通股的5分钟高频数据对我国股市涨跌幅限制的效应进行分析。结果表明,虽然普通股和ST股在接近涨跌幅限制时均存在趋势反转现象,但普通股10％的涨跌幅限制存在一定的磁吸效应,而ST股5％的涨跌幅限制不存在磁吸效应。这与国外其他研究以及国内基于其他方法得出的研究结论存在差异。本文的分析还说明,国内所谓涨跌幅限制的冷却效应只是股价正常的均值回复,与涨跌幅限制制度无关。     

Costly Search, Capacity Constraints, and Bertrand Equilibrium Price Dispersion

This article analyzes the impact of transaction (search) costs and capacity constraints in an almost competitive market with homogeneous firms that compete on price. We characterize conditions under which Nash equilibria with price dispersion exist; in equilibrium, firms play pure strategies in prices and consumers adopt a symmetric mixed search strategy. Price dispersion is possible even though consumers all have the same search cost and valuation for the item and prices charged by all firms are common knowledge.     

Relationships among U.S. oil prices and oil industry equity indices

The cointegration analysis suggests that the pure oil industry equity system and the mixed oil price/equity index system offers more opportunities for long-run portfolio diversification and less market integration than the pure oil price systems. On a daily basis, in the oil price systems all oil prices with the exception of the 3-month futures can explain the future movements of each other. In the mixed system, none of the daily oil industry stock indices can explain the daily future movements of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices, whereas these prices can explain the movements of independent companies engaged in exploration, refining, and marketing. The spillover analysis of oil volatility transmission suggests that the oil futures market has a matching or echoing volatility effect on the stocks of some oil sectors and a volatility-dampening effect on the stocks of others. The policy implication is that, during times of high oil volatility, traders should choose the S&P oil sector stocks that match their tolerance for volatility and use the right financial derivative to hedge against or profit from this volatility. The day effect for volatility transmission suggests that Friday has a calming effect on the volatility of oil stocks in general. The effect for Monday is not significant.     

Dynamic relationships between crude oil prices and socially responsible investing in Brazil: evidence for linear and non-linear causality

Recent years have witnessed an increasing interest in socially responsible investing (SRI), reflecting investors’ growing awareness of social, environmental, ethical and corporate governance issues. At the same time, the effect of oil price shocks on stock price returns has become a prominent issue due to surges in energy prices. Using the Brazilian corporate sustainability index (ISE) as a benchmark for socially responsible investments in the Brazilian stock market, the present study extends the understandings on the impact of oil prices on stock price behaviour, focusing on a new class of assets: those from socially responsible firms. To this end, apart from conventional linear causality approaches, we apply a nonparametric test by Diks and Panchenko (DP) on daily data spanning from January 2008 to December 2015 to test for non-linear causality, before and after controlling for conditional heteroscedasticity. Our findings show that, in spite of their efforts to become more socially responsible, firms that have adhered to the ISE in recent years are influenced by crude oil spot prices, especially the WTI crude. In line with previous studies, we also provide consistent evidence that the Brazilian stock market, as a whole, is associated with the international crude oil market.     

Volatility transmission between oil prices and banks' stock prices as a new source of instability: Lessons from the United States experience

This paper examines whether American banks' exposure to the oil industry could lead to instability in both oil and financial markets. To address this issue, we investigate volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock prices of the four major American banks involved in the oil industry by employing the vector autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average framework. We use high-frequency data from January 3, 2006, to June 30, 2016. Our results support the existence of such volatility spillovers, as evidenced by the significant volatility responses of oil price (banks' stock price) to a shock in banks' stock price (oil price). These responses, more pronounced following the banks' exposure to the shale industry, mainly reflect the financial fragility of shale companies and their high indebtedness levels. Thus, this paper emphasises how the shale oil industry could trigger turmoil in both oil and financial markets.