The resolution of cross-border banks: Issues for deposit insurers and proposals for cooperation

This paper reviews critical legal and policy issues created by cross-border banking insolvencies. These include (I) Insolvency principles, such as (1) criteria for intervention; (2) deposit insurance; (3) power to manage; (4) ability to maximize recoveries. Also included is (II) International legal complications. Critical issues in cross-border crisis management involve: (1) division of labor between home and host countries; (2) the availability of information; (3) the legal, regulatory and supervisory framework; (4) the law governing initiation of proceedings; (5) grounds for intervention; (6) deposit insurance; (7) legal powers of controlling authorities; (8) the potential financial and economic effects. We conclude with a few proposals for cooperation.     

Revisiting the ICAPM under the distortion of risk–return tradeoff in short-horizon stock returns

We suggest that the distortion of the positive risk–return relation in the ICAPM is a consequence of trading by informed investors to exploit mispricing. We hypothesize and demonstrate that a non-positive (strongly positive) risk–return relation following positive (negative) market returns is attributed to short-selling (purchasing) of overpriced (underpriced) stocks along with optimistic (pessimistic) expectations conditional on good (bad) market news. We verify this asymmetry in the risk–return relation through the indirect risk–return relation conditional on good (bad) market news. We also find that the attenuation (reinforcement) of the positive risk–return relation is more profound in high- (low-) sentiment periods.     

Volatility,Depth, and Order Composition: Evidence from a Pure Limit Order Futures Market

This paper investigates market behaviors (such as volatility, depth, and volume) and order-flow decomposition in a pure limit order futures market, the Taiwan Futures Exchange. The results are different from those in equity markets due to relatively high adverse selection costs in futures markets. We show that a volatility (depth) increase is followed by a depth (volatility) decrease; a market order increase (decrease) subsequently induces higher (lower) volatility; and a limit order increase (decrease) results in more (less) market orders and limit orders. When the upside (downside) volatility rises, buyers decrease (increase) subsequent limit bid orders, and sellers increase (decrease) limit ask orders.     

A content analysis of auditors' reports on IT internal control weaknesses: The comparative advantages of an automated approach to control weakness identification

We employ an automated content analysis approach to provide a snapshot of the terminology auditors actually use to describe information technology weaknesses (ITWs). We develop and use a dictionary based on textual analysis of auditors' reports on internal control filed under Section 404 of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act from 2004 to 2009. Using the dictionary with content analysis software led to the identification of 14 categories of ITWs in order of decreasing frequency of occurrence: (1) access, (2) monitoring, (3) design issues, (4) change and development, (5) end-user computing, (6) segregation of incompatible functions, (7) policies, (8) documentation, (9) masterfiles, (10) backup, (11) staffing sufficiency and competency, (12) security (other than over access), (13) outsourcing and (14) operations. The use of automated content analysis methodology also helped us identify potential disconnects between terminology used in auditors' reports and that used in published frameworks and guidelines. We provide the dictionary and discuss the methodology used in creating and applying the dictionary to the analysis of the textual content of auditors' reports on internal control, including the advantages and limitations of automated ITW identification.     

Seven Fallacies Concerning Milton Friedman's “The Role of Monetary Policy”

This paper analyzes Milton Friedman's (1968a) article “The Role of Monetary Policy,” via a discussion of seven fallacies concerning the article. These fallacies are as follows: (i) “The Role of Monetary Policy” was Friedman's first public statement of the natural rate hypothesis. (ii) The Friedman–Phelps Phillips curve was already present in Samuelson and Solow's (1960) analysis. (iii) Friedman's specification of the Phillips curve was based on perfect competition and no nominal rigidities. (iv) Friedman's (1968a) account of monetary policy in the Great Depression contradicted the Monetary History’s version. (v) Friedman (1968a) stated that a monetary expansion will keep the unemployment rate and the real interest rate below their natural rates for two decades. (vi) The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates invalidates the natural rate hypothesis. (vii) Friedman's (1968a) treatment of an interest-rate peg was refuted by the rational expectations revolution. The discussion lays out the reasons why each of these seven items is a fallacy and infers key aspects of the framework underlying Friedman's (1968a) analysis.     

The regulatory response to the financial crisis

There are numerous aspects concerning financial regulation which the current financial turmoil has high-lighted. These include: (1) the form of deposit insurance; (2) bank solvency regimes, ‘prompt corrective action’; (3) Central Banks’ money market operations; (4) commercial bank liquidity risk management; (5) procyclicality of CARs (and mark-to-market); lack of counter-cyclical instruments; (5) boundaries of regulation, conduits, SIVs and reputational risk; (6) crisis management: (a) within countries, e.g. UK Tripartite Committee; or (b) cross-border, how to allocate the burden of cross-border defaults? This paper describes how the crisis exposed regulatory failings, drawing largely on UK experience, and suggests remedies.     

Linear Accounting Valuation When Abnormal Earnings Are AR(2)

The Ohlson (1995) model assumes that abnormal earnings follow an AR(1) process primarily for reasons of mathematical tractability. However, the empirical literature on the Garman and Ohlson (1980) model finds that the data support an AR(2) lag structure for earnings, book values and dividends. Moreover, the AR(2) process encompasses a far richer variety of time series patterns than does the AR(1) process and includes the AR(1) process as a special case. This paper solves the Ohlson model directly for an AR(2) abnormal earnings dynamic. The model is estimated on a time series firm-level basis following the approach used by Myers (1999). It is found that, like the Ohlson AR(1) model, the Ohlson AR(2) model severely underestimates market prices even relative to book values. These results further bring into question the empirical validity of the Ohlson model.     

Macroeconomic policies and performance in Latin America

This paper provides new evidence on macroeconomic policies and results in Latin America and the Caribbean. Results are: (i) credibility allows adoption of counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies; (ii) accuracy in meeting inflation targets depends on central bank independence and country risk; (iii) intermediate exchange rate (ER) regimes have become less persistent; (iv) ER regimes matter for inflation and growth; (v) real ER trends are not explained by productivity growth and supply reforms do not resolve real ER misalignments; (vi) financial integration has increased significantly; (vii) foreign shocks are a major growth determinant; and (viii) composition of foreign capital inflows matters for growth.     

Forecasting exchange rates under parameter and model uncertainty

We introduce a forecasting method that closely matches the econometric properties required by exchange rate theory. Our approach formally models (i) when (and if) predictor variables enter or leave a regression model, (ii) the degree of parameter instability, (iii) the (potentially) rapidly changing relevance of regressors, and (iv) the appropriate shrinkage intensity over time. We consider (short-term) forecasting of six major US dollar exchange rates using a standard set of macro fundamentals. Our results indicate the importance of shrinkage and flexible model selection/averaging criteria to avoid poor forecasting results.     

Expected shortfall assessment in commodity (L)ETF portfolios with semi-nonparametric specifications

ABSTRACT

This paper studies the risk assessment of semi-nonparametric (SNP) distributions for leveraged exchange trade funds, (L)ETFs. We applied the SNP model with dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) and EGARCH innovations, and implement recent techniques to backtest Expected Shortfall (ES) to portfolios formed by bivariate combinations of major (L)ETFs on metal (Gold and Silver) and energy (Oil and Gas) commodities. Results support that multivariate SNP-DCC model outperforms the Gaussian-DCC and provides accurate risk measures for commodity (L)ETFs.     

A note on the turn of the month and year effects in international stock returns

This examination of the turn of the month (TOM) and turn of the year (TOY) effects in 50 international stock indices, for the period 1994–2006, characterises the degree that the effects are influenced by: (i) the gross domestic product of the economy, (ii) the sign of the return on the prior day (called the prior day effect), (iii) a temporal indicator and (iv) the Monday effect. These effects are assessed by the use of an estimated generalised least squares (EGLS) panel regression model incorporating panel-corrected standard errors. Three important results relating to the TOM and TOY effects are observed. When the prior day effect on control days is used as the reference and controls are made for market development and year, we find that: (i) there is a relatively enhanced return on all TOM days, (ii) there is a relatively enhanced return on good TOY days and (iii) returns of bad TOY days are not remarkable.     

CEOs versus CFOs: Incentives and corporate policies

We undertake a broad-based study of the effect of managerial risk-taking incentives on corporate financial policies and show that the risk-taking incentives of chief executive officers (CEOs) and chief financial officers (CFOs) significantly influence their firms’ financial policies. In particular, we find that CEOs’ risk-decreasing (-increasing) incentives are associated with lower (higher) leverage and higher (lower) cash balances. CFOs’ risk-decreasing (-increasing) incentives are associated with safer (riskier) debt-maturity choices and higher (lower) earnings-smoothing through accounting accruals. We exploit the stock option expensing regulation of 2004 to establish a causal link between managerial incentives and corporate policies. Our findings have important implications for optimal corporate compensation design.     

Causal Relations Among Stock Returns,Interest Rates,Real Activity,and Inflation

Using a multivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) approach, this paper investigates causal relations and dynamic interactions among asset returns, real activity, and inflation in the postwar United States. Major findings are (1) stock returns appear Granger-causally prior and help explain real activity, (2) with interest rates in the VAR, stock returns explain little variation in inflation, although interest rates explain a substantial fraction of the variation in inflation, and (3) inflation explains little variation in real activity. These findings seem more compatible with Fama (1981) than with Geske and Roll (1983) or with Ram and Spencer (1983) .     

Simulated financial dealing room: learning discovery and student accountability

This paper identifies the effectiveness of a simulated treasury dealing room for teaching and learning. It uses a presurvey and a postsurvey to establish student perceptions of learning effectiveness. It concludes that students believe that the dealing room: (i) improves their opportunities to apply theory; (ii) provides better learning than lectures; (iii) is more effective than individual learning; (iv) improves student monitoring of learning effectiveness; and (v) improves student abilities to recognize ethical issues, develop alternative solutions to ethical problems, and evaluate solutions to ethical problems from a moral point of view. Student motivation is enhanced by: (i) the high value they place on dealing room learning; (ii) their preparedness to participate; (iii) rapidly reduced levels of anxiety about trading; and (iv) the learning resources provided.     

Recent developments in monetary theory

This paper surveys recent work in monetary theory, with primary emphasis on material that has appeared since the writing of Harry Johnson's 1962 survey. The discussion deals with the following topics: (1) the theory of money demand, with special attention to inventory approaches; (2) money, inflation and growth; (3) the welfare cost of inflation, the optimum quantity of money, and inflationary finance; (4) disequilibrium theory; (5) the general equilibrium approach to monetary theory; (6) the new microfoundations of money; and (7) rational expectations and the Phillips Curve.     

Credit Risk Research: Review and Agenda

This article provides a comprehensive review of scholarly research on credit risk measurement during the last 57 years applying bibliometric citation analysis and elaborates an agenda for future research. The bibliography is compiled using the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Science (WOS) database and includes all articles with citations over the period 1960–2016. Specifically, the review is carried out using 1695 articles across 72 countries published in 442 journals by 2928 authors. The findings suggest that credit risk research is multifaceted and can be classified into six streams: (1) defaultable security pricing, (2) default intensity modeling, (3) comparative analysis of credit models, (4) comparative analysis of credit markets, (5) credit default swap (CDS) pricing, and (6) loan loss provisions. The article contributes through synthesizing and identifying existing as well as emerging research streams.     

A simple approach to interest-rate option pricing

A simple introduction to contingent claim valuation of riskyassets in a discrete time, stochastic interest-rate economyis provided. Taking the term structure of interest rates asexogenous, closed-form solutions are derived for European optionswritten on (i) Treasury bills, (ii) interest-rate forward contracts,(iii) interest-rate futures contracts, (iv) Treasury bonds,(v) interest-rate caps, (vi) stock options, (vii) equity forwardcontracts, (viii) equity futures contracts, (ix) Eurodollarliabilities, and (x) foreign exchange contracts.     

International equity flows and country funds

This study investigates the relationships between U.S. equity flows in foreign countries and returns of closed-end country funds for emerging Latin American markets, emerging Asian markets and developed markets. The major issues addressed are (1) relationships between flows and fund returns based on two basic models—information contribution and feedback trading effects, (2) the role of volatility in these relationships, and (3) the effects of the Asian crisis. Basic findings include: (1) information contribution (past flows affect returns) and feedback trading arguments (past returns affect flows) are supported; (2) strong evidence is found for the market segmentation argument rather than the investor sentiment argument; (3) there exists strong evidence of significant volatility effects under information contribution and feedback trading; (4) the Asian crisis effects are important but limited to Asian funds.     

Rationalizing forecast inefficiency

We show analysts’ own earnings forecasts predict error in their own forecasts of earnings at other horizons, which we argue provides a measure of the extent to which analysts inefficiently use information. We construct our measure by exploiting two sources of variation in analysts’ incentives: (i) more recent forecasts have greater salience at the time of the earnings release so accuracy incentives are higher (lower) at shorter (longer) forecast horizons and (ii) analysts have greater incentives for optimism (pessimism) at longer (shorter) horizons. Consistent with these incentives affecting the incorporation of information into forecasts, we document (i) current year forecasts underweight (overweight) information in shorter (longer) horizon forecasts and (ii) the mis-weighting is more pronounced when recent news is negative—when analysts have greater (weaker) incentives to incorporate the news into shorter (longer) horizon forecasts. Finally, returns tests suggest that forecasts adjusted for the inefficiency we document better represent market expectations of earnings.

     

New low-frequency spread measures

I develop new spread proxies that pick up on three attributes of the low-frequency (daily) data: (1) price clustering, (2) serial price covariance accounting for midpoint prices on no-trade days, and (3) the quoted spread that is available on no-trade days. I develop and empirically test two different approaches: an integrated model and combined models. I test both new and existing low-frequency spread measures relative to two high-frequency benchmarks (percent effective spread and percent quoted spread) on three performance dimensions: (1) higher individual firm correlation with the benchmarks, (2) higher portfolio correlation with the benchmarks, and (3) lower distance relative to the benchmarks. I find that on all three performance dimensions the new integrated model and the new combined model do significantly better than existing low-frequency spread proxies.