The index revision party

This paper examines the annual revision of the AEX index in the Netherlands. This particular index is interesting because the revision rules enable investors to anticipate changes in both constituents and index weights long in advance. Our results suggest that attention and temporary price pressure play a role in the observed revision effect. A portfolio containing those stocks expected to benefit from the index revision is showing an outperformance of up to 7% in the weeks before the revision, while losers are unaffected. Around the revision day, we find indications of temporary price pressure for winners as well as losers.     

Index Futures Trading and Stock Return Volatility: Evidence from the Introduction of Mid Cap 400 Index Futures

The MidCap 400 stock index is used to provide new evidence on the relation between stock index futures trading and stock return volatility. The study documents a significant decrease in return volatility and systematic risk, and a significant increase in trading volume for the MidCap 400 stocks after the introduction of the MidCap index. A control sample of medium-capitalization stocks, however, exhibits similar contemporaneous changes in these measures. The MidCap stocks and the control stocks also experience a significant decrease in volatility and an increase in volume after the introduction of MidCap 400 index futures. Thus, the study finds no difference in the behavior of the MidCap 400 stocks and the control stocks and no evidence of a relation between index futures trading and volatility in the stock market.     

New evidence on the price and liquidity effects of the FTSE 100 index revisions

We study the price and liquidity effects following the FTSE 100 index revisions. We employ the standard GARCH(1,1) model to allow the residual variance of the single index model (SIM) to vary systematically over time and use a Kalman filter approach to model SIM coefficients as a random walk process. We show that the observed price effect depends on the abnormal return estimation methods. Specifically, the OLS-based abnormal returns indicate that the price effect associated with the index revision is temporary, whereas both SIM with random coefficients and GARCH(1,1) model suggest that both additions and deletions experience permanent price change. Added (removed) stocks exhibit permanent (temporary) change in trading volume and bid-ask spread. The analysis of the spread components suggests that the permanent change associated with additions is a result of non-information-related liquidity. We interpret the permanent price effect of additions and deletions combined with the permanent (temporary) shift in liquidity of added (removed) stocks as evidence in favour of the imperfect substitution hypothesis with some non-information-related liquidity effects in the case of additions.     

Analyst target price revisions and institutional herding

We document that institutional herding behavior is associated with analyst target price revisions even after controlling for the effects of analyst recommendations and earnings forecasts, and provide insights into the price impact of institutional herding. Institutional investors tend to buy the same stocks following an upward target price revision and sell the same stocks following a downward price revision. Moreover, institutional investors tend to overreact to analysts' target price revisions, which exacerbates the mispricing in the stock market. Such price destabilizing effect is particularly pronounced for herding among investment firms.     

A Regime-Level Empirical Model of the Specialist Quote Revision Process

NYSE trading is a continuous auction process distinguished by order flow imbalances and non-coincident revision of the bid and the ask. To deal with the aggregation problem presented by non-coincident revision of the quotes, we propose a regime-level empirical model and use it to test the Brock and Kleidon queuing theory of a continuous auction. Using transactions data for IBM for calendar year 1988, Harris, McInish, and Chakravarity (1995) performed a Hausman-type specification test that confirmed the exogeneity of order flow volumes at the bid and the ask. Extending their work, this paper estimates two simultaneous autoregressive ask and bid equations for 50 randomly selected stocks and contrasts thinly traded and volatile stocks. The results support Brock and Kleidon's distinguishing implication—namely, exogenous increases in trading volume raise the ask and lower the bid. Although some queuing system characteristics prove endogenous in thinly traded stocks and in especially volatile stocks, exogenous order flow volume continues to increase spreads across the 50 stock sample. The paper draws conclusions about the appropriate specification of endogeneity, cross-equation disturbances from the bid to the ask, and cross-equation queuing information flows.     

A comprehensive long-term analysis of S&P 500 index additions and deletions

We investigate the long-term effects of S&P 500 index additions and deletions on a sample of stocks from 1962 to 2003 and find a significant long-term price increase for both added and deleted stocks, with deleted stocks outperforming added stocks. The long-term price increase for added stocks can be attributed to increases in institutional ownership, liquidity, and analyst coverage, and a decrease in the shadow cost in the long-term. However, while deletion has no significant effect on analyst coverage and shadow cost, we find a rebound in the institutional ownership and liquidity of deleted stocks. The difference in the long-term price increase of added and deleted stocks can be explained by analyst coverage and operating performance.     

Robinhood investors and corporate misconduct

Using the data of retail investors' stock holdings, this study examined the effect of corporate misconduct on investor behavior. Our results showed that the number of retail investors investing in fraudulent firms tends to increase throughout the misconduct and during the public announcement. We also found that the increased volatility of stock returns heightens the interest of retail investors in the fraudulent stocks before and during the announcement of corporate misconduct. However, there was no significant change in their number after the announcement. Retail investors did not sell fraudulent stocks that have already lost significant value after the public announcement of corporate misconduct.     

凤尾变鸡头:被忽视的指数成分股交换

沪深300和中证500同时调整成分股,沪深300调出的股票大部分会进入中证500。这些交换的成分股既有沪深300调出效应,也有中证500调入效应。已有文献专注于沪深300调出样本整体的调出效应,却忽视了交换股还有中证500调入效应。本文首先使用断点回归设计研究交换股,证明了指数效应在国内存在。随后,使用Fama-French五因子模型研究交换股与其它沪深300调出股的差异,解释了为何国内研究认为指数效应不存在:交换股主要表现出调入效应,抵消了其它沪深300调出股的调出效应,忽视指数成分股交换导致了整体调出效应“不显著”,甚至为正。     

Style‐Related Comovement: Fundamentals or Labels?

I find that economically meaningless index labels cause stock returns to covary in excess of fundamentals. S&P/Barra follow a simple mechanical procedure to define their Value and Growth indices. In doing so, they reclassify some stocks from Value to Growth even after their book‐to‐market ratios have risen, and vice versa. Such stocks begin to covary more with the index they join and less with the index they leave. Backdated constituent data from Barra reveal no such label‐related shifts in comovement during the 10 years prior to the actual introduction of the indices in 1992.     

Information,trading and stock returns: Lessons from dually-listed securities

This paper compares the intra-day patterns on the NYSE and AMEX of volatility, trading volume and bid-ask spreads for European and Japanese dually-listed stocks with American stocks of comparable average trading volume and volatility. It is shown that the intra-day patterns for these stocks are remarkably similar even though public information flows differ markedly across these stocks during the trading day. In the early morning, all stocks have higher volatility than later in the day, but this phenomenon is most pronounced for Japanese stocks and affects American stocks the least. We argue that these patterns are consistent with markets reacting to the overnight accumulation of public information but are inconsistent with the view that early morning volatility can be attributed to monopolistic specialist behavior.     

The Impact of Firm-Specific Public News on Intraday Market Dynamics: Evidence from the Turkish Stock Market

This study attempts to discover the intraday firm-specific news announcements and return volatility relation in the Turkish stock market. The GARCH framework is utilized to investigate the impact of firm-specific public news announcements on volatility persistence with and without trading volume. For the majority of the stocks in the sample, the volatility persistence diminishes with the inclusion of firm-specific news, implying that news is impounded rapidly into prices. This effect is more pronounced for larger stocks. When there is no news, the trading volume does not appear to reduce the volatility persistence for the majority of stocks, possibly due to the presence of private information possessed by informed traders.     

我国社保基金持股偏好研究

社保基金在证券市场上的投资表现会直接影响其运行的稳定性,由于其资金来源的特殊性,社保基金对于选择投资对象有没有明显的偏好呢？本文利用2008—2018年我国A股上市公司的数据,研究社保基金的持股偏好。研究表明,社保基金在进行投资时对于经营业绩好、风险性低、股权集中度高、估值偏低的股票具有明显的偏好。进一步研究发现,与保险公司偏好股权集中度低的股票、公募基金偏好流动性高的股票相比,社保基金更偏好股权集中度高的股票,而对于流动性高的股票并没有明显的偏好。     

Making a Market with Spreads and Depths

Abstract:   In this paper we study the quote revision behavior of NASDAQ market makers by analyzing inter‐temporal changes in their spread and depth quotes. Using individual dealer quote and trade data for a sample of 2,319 stocks, we find that NASDAQ dealers make more frequent revisions in depths than in spreads and the extent of liquidity management is greater for stocks of smaller companies, lower‐priced stocks, and stocks with larger trade sizes and fewer number of transactions. We show that intraday variation in the number of quote revisions follows the U‐shaped pattern, indicating that the extent of liquidity management is greater during the early and late hours of trading than during midday.     

EXCESS RETURNS OF INDEX REPLACEMENT STOCKS: EVIDENCE OF LIQUIDITY AND SUBSTITUTABILITY

Excess returns of S&P index replacement stocks are attributed to price pressures and imperfect substitutes in previous research. However, parameter estimates are biased by the use of pre-announcement returns; replacements are characterized by rising stock prices. Using a future estimation period to avoid this bias, we find excess returns do not reverse. Further, we find no relation between excess returns and the amount of stock closely held or the size of index funds. The evidence supports efficient market assumptions: the stock market is liquid and stocks are close substitutes.     

Differences of Opinion of Public Information and Speculative Trading in Stocks and Options

We analyze the effects of differences of opinion on the dynamicsof trading volume in stocks and options. We find that disagreementsabout the mean of the current- and next-period public informationlead to trading in stocks in the current period but have noeffect on options trading. Without options, we find that disagreementsabout the precision of all past and current public informationaffect trading in stocks in the current period. With options,only disagreements about the precisions of the next- and current-periodinformation affect stocks and options trading in the currentperiod. Our results suggest that options trading is concentratedaround information events that are likely to cause disagreementsamong investors, whereas trading in stocks may be diffusiveover many periods.     

Order Imbalances and Stock Price Movements on October 19 and 20, 1987

On October 19, 1987, NYSE stocks in the S&P index declined seven percentage points more than NYSE stocks not in this index. In the first hour of trading on October 20, the S&P stocks virtually recovered to the level of the non-S&P stocks. There is a strong relation between order imbalances and stock price movements, both in analyses of time series and cross-sections. Thus, in addition to the breakdown in the linkage between future prices and the spot index on these two days, there were also breakdowns in the linkage among NYSE stocks.     

Long-term U.S. infrastructure returns and portfolio selection

Our understanding of the long-term return behavior and portfolio characteristics of public infrastructure investments is limited by a relatively short history of empirical data. We re-construct U.S. listed infrastructure index returns by mapping their monthly performance to received systematic and industry risk factors from 1927 through 2010. Our findings reveal that the infrastructure returns in recent years may understate the tail-risk that investors could experience over the long-term, however, this tail-risk is commensurate with holding a broad portfolio of U.S. stocks. For mean-variance and mean-CVaR investors, we report the benefits of holding public infrastructure assets in investment portfolios.     

基于复杂网络的新能源股票间联动性研究

运用复杂网络方法,建立无向无权网络,考量新能源板块内88支股票间的联动性,结果表明,新能源股票间的收益具有联动性;一些股票在网络中占据重要位置,对于信息在新能源股票网络中传递起重要作用;所构建的网络具有小世界效应和无标度特性,但是幂律指数与大多数现实网络的幂律指数存在差异。鉴此,投资新能源股票,应综合考量市场波动对未来收益的影响,以更好规避投资风险。     

Regulation and stock market quality: The impact of MiFID II provision on research unbundling

This paper investigates the effects produced by the unbundling of analyst research costs required by MiFID II on market quality, as measured by stock liquidity and price efficiency. We find that the payment of an explicit price for research is associated with a reduction in analyst coverage in the EU. Unexpectedly, the reduction is stronger for large-cap stocks. For mid- and large-cap stocks analyst coverage in the EU is still greater than in the US. The reduction in analyst coverage observed in the EU is part of a downward trend that initiated prior to MiFID II and contributes to close the gap between the two regions. We also find no change in the bid-ask spread for small-, mid- and large-cap stocks, and a slight increase for micro-cap stocks. We observe no significant change in price efficiency. Taken together our findings seem to suggest that there was an overproduction of research in Europe with the previous regulatory regime. However, the growth of passive management and index funds may also explain the observed decrease in coverage.     

A network perspective of the stock market

Complex networks are constructed to study correlations between the closing prices for all US stocks that were traded over two periods of time (from July 2005 to August 2007; and from June 2007 to May 2009). The nodes are the stocks, and the connections are determined by cross correlations of the variations of the stock prices, price returns and trading volumes within a chosen period of time. Specifically, a winner-take-all approach is used to determine if two nodes are connected by an edge. So far, no previous work has attempted to construct a full network of US stock prices that gives full information about their interdependence. We report that all networks based on connecting stocks of highly correlated stock prices, price returns and trading volumes, display a scalefree degree distribution. The results from this work clearly suggest that the variation of stock prices are strongly influenced by a relatively small number of stocks. We propose a new approach for selecting stocks for inclusion in a stock index and compare it with existing indexes. From the composition of the highly connected stocks, it can be concluded that the market is heavily dominated by stocks in the financial sector.