从自然资源全民所有制到全民共享机制——对建立以社会保障为功用的自然资源公共信托基金的探讨

促进人的全面自由发展是经济发展的最终目的,社会保障是支撑人生存与发展的最基本的公共制度安排。我国现阶段,社会保障基金积累不足,同时人口老龄化正在加速,养老保险资金的可持续支付能力面临巨大挑战。建立自然资源公共信托基金,对提升社会保障支撑能力具有重要意义,这也是全民所有制下自然资源收益的一种全民共享机制。     

Financing consumption in an aging Japan: The role of foreign capital inflows and immigration

We project the impact of demographic change on Japanese capital flows by simulating the impact of population aging on Japanese saving and investment rates. As aging depresses saving rates, in our baseline projections, we show that by 2015, foreign capital inflows will comprise about 15 percent of Japanese output. A distinguishing feature of this paper is that we compare the capital flows that occur without immigration to the capital inflows that would occur with immigration of 400,000 people annually. With the larger labor force from immigration and the large induced capital accumulation, output will be 22 percent higher by 2020, and 50 percent higher by 2040. The higher output means that less capital needs to be imported; by 2015, Japan will be importing only 8 percent of its output. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (4) (2004) 506–527.     

独居老人主观幸福感影响因素分析——基于CGSS 2017年的数据

在以人口老龄化为核心的人口结构性矛盾日益突出的背景下,独居老人由于其群体特殊性,他们的健康福祉和生活质量问题尤为值得学界关注。基于中国综合社会调查2017年数据对1 016名独居老人的主观幸福感影响因素进行分析发现：家庭支持（家人情感支持和经济保障）、社会支持（社会阶层归属感、信任感及公平感）和政府部分制度支持（医疗保障制度）显著影响独居老人主观幸福感,政府的其他制度支持却无显著影响;此外,独居老人的主观幸福感也呈现出显著的性别、年龄、城乡和健康状况差异。基于此,相关部门应从政府、家庭和社会及个人层面入手来探索增进独居老人生活福祉的可行路径。     

浅析应对人口老龄化的公共政策

我国养老保障制度从单位养老向社会化转制的过程中,同时遭遇了人口老龄化的冲击。转制带来的隐性债务在抚养比增大的作用下不断放大,个人账户难以实现有效积累和保值增值,任其发展必然形成严重的养老金支付危机。本文通过分析我国应对老龄化社会面临的特殊困难,结合现有代表性研究成果,提出在资本市场不完善的背景下,养老金个人账户向大型央企直接投资,转换部分国家持有股份以弥补个人账户缺口,并从鼓励居家养老的现实角度,提出"以家庭为单位"申报个人所得税的构想等建议。     

苏南现代化建设示范区经济、人口与社会医疗保险——以常熟市居民基本(农村合作)医疗保险为例

经济社会发展、人口老龄化和现代化社会医疗保险制度建设的关系,是当前苏南现代化社会医疗保险制度建设的重大课题。文章基于对常熟市居民基本(农村合作)医疗保险的研究,发现:政策延续与经济发展是以常熟市为代表的苏南现代化建设示范区社会医疗保险制度建设取得改革发展先机的重要因素;持续加深的人口老龄化程度对社会医疗保险基金安全和补偿支出结构的负面冲击已经逐步显现;提高补偿标准和改革支付方式在一定程度上优化了参保居民就诊结构,增强了社会医疗保险的宏观经济保障能力,但长期对提高社会医疗保险制度的宏观经济保障能力的作用非常有限。基于以上研究发现,提出政策建议:通过吸纳外来务工人员以优化参保人群年龄结构是解决人口老龄化挑战的关键;重视疾病预防,特别是慢性病早期预防,加强多部门疾病预防协同合作是应对人口老龄化的重要措施。     

Population Ageing and Pension System Reform in China: A Computable Overlapping-Generations General Equilibrium Model Analysis

Over the next 50 years, China will face an increase of its old-age population by approximately three times. Such a demographic change may result in a large increase of pension payments, which would require a significant rise in the pension contribution rate. This also implies important intergenerational redistribution issues and may even harm living standards as a whole. This paper analyses for China the economic impact of an ageing population by means of a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generations structure. The paper explores the effect on the social security system and economic development of China under alternative scenarios for the benefit rates on pensions, retirement age and technological progress. Our research indicates that a pension reform plus positive technological progress can compensate for the menace of a decline in living standards for both seniors and working generations.     

社会保障基金投资的国际比较分析及其借鉴

随着老龄化社会的临近,世界各国的社会保障制度难免受到冲击,其中社会保障基金的投资运营首当其冲。为了防止出现支付危机,许多国家已经开始对社保制度改革,其中社保基金投资管理方面的改革一直是重点。本文对世界上主要社保基金投资管理模式进行介绍,并展开比较分析,得出一些经验,并结合我国具体情况,提出一些关于社保基金投资管理的建议。     

The Second Demographic Dividend as a Driver of China's Growth

As China's demographic transition enters a new stage, the “first demographic dividend” – the economic advantage resulting from demographic changes in recent decades – is bound to disappear permanently. China's future development will be characterized by an aging population. The “second demographic dividend” refers to new sources of economic growth derived from this later population change. This paper reveals major constraints caused by aging in China, which is characterized by a tendency to grow old before becoming rich. As the population ages, human capital improvement slows, labor force participation declines and consumption power reduces. This paper suggests taking advantage of a population “echo effect” to improve human capital at all ages, to enhance workers’ ability to benefit from employment, and to improve the labor participation rate of the elderly, which in turn would increase the income and social security of the aged. These measures are conducive to future economic growth and to the cultivation of the second demographic dividend.     

人口老龄化对社会保障支出的影响研究

我国人口老龄化态势日益严峻,这必将成为社会保障支出增加的重要推手。文章利用2008—2018年省际面板数据,从老龄化程度、老龄化速度和社会负担三个角度测度人口老龄化,采用系统聚类方法将我国30个省份(不包括西藏和港澳台地区)划分为四类人口老龄化区域,借助固定效应模型深入剖析人口老龄化对社会保障支出水平的影响。研究表明:从全国和四类人口老龄化区域来看,老龄化程度均提升了财政社会保障支出水平和社会保障总支出水平,而老龄化速度则对社会保障支出水平的上升表现为阻碍作用;社会负担促进了全国和四类区域财政社会保障支出水平的提高,但由于各省份经济水平或政策措施的差异,对社会保障总支出水平的影响存在区域间的异质性。     

社会保障视角下的小产权房合法化问题研究

虽然小产权房依现行法律为＂非法＂,但小产权房已成为许多中低收入人群的选择。文章认为,小产权房问题的出现在某种程度上反映出我国城市居民住房保障的不足,而小产权房合法化可以帮助解决城市居民住房保障问题。对农民而言,农村社会保障资金来源有限一直是农村社会保障建设的最大障碍,小产权房合法化可以给农民增加收益,大大缓解农村社会保障不健全的资金来源问题,有利于农村社会保障制度的建立和完善。以上目标的实现还须加快《住宅法》以及农村社会保障方面的立法,只有法律的指引才能更好地发挥社会保障的作用。     

老龄化背景下中国商业健康保险的社会保障作用研究

商业健康保险具有缓解社会保障支出的作用,对于社会保障具有积极影响。基于老龄化背景下针对中国商业健康保险的社会保障作用进行研究。研究结果发现当人均商业健康保险的保费收入增加时,全国社保基金中的人均医疗保险支出将可因此显著减少,这说明中国商业健康保险的发展有助于缓解社会保障支出,从而能够减轻政府财政支出的负担和压力,与当前政府所提倡的积极发展商业保险,从而推进"健康中国"的战略计划实行的政策相符。     

对加强我国社会保障基金监管的思考

加强社会保障基金监管对保证社会保障制度稳定运行、维护广大社会成员的权益有着十分重要的意义.目前我国社会保障基金监管存在重复监管、监管信息披露透明度不高、监管立法滞后等问题.加强我国社会保障基金监管,应准确定位政府监管角色,转变社会保障基金监管模式,完善社会保障基金监管体系.     

论养老农保基金的管理模式

随着我国农村人口老龄化趋势的加剧,农村的社会养老保险问题日益突出。我国农村社会养老保险制度的关键问题是资金来源缺乏,养老保险基金管理模式不完善,农村社会养老保险基金的管理直接影响到农村社会养老保险事业的发展。因此,要对农村社会养老保险基金进行规范化管理,以实现农村社会养老保险基金的良性运转。     

Age structure of the population in Belgium and social security

The effects of demographic aging and of various socioeconomic factors on the social security system in Belgium are explored. "Special attention is given to the impact of the ageing of the population on the pension problem. Based on a simple formula a series of percentages of taxation have been calculated as a function of shifts in the proportion of retired vs. active population and in the proportion of the average income vs. the average amount of pension. One of the conclusions is that the progressive ageing of the population will become the most significant factor in the growth of social expenditures."     

老龄化时代社会养老模式研究

中国已于2000年步入老龄社会,养老模式逐渐由家庭养老转向社会养老,养老保障问题日益突出。为了有效促进我国养老模式选择的合理化运作,本文将就我国的养老形式进行进一步的探究,分析比较不同国家、地区独具特色的养老模式选择,并对我国现今所面临的养老保障不足及人口红利等问题提出相关政策建议。     

“未富先老”与劳动力短缺

计划生育政策的成功执行和社会经济的快速发展,中国在经济发展尚处较低水平的情况下,实现了人口转变过程,过早地迎来了人口老龄化,劳动力供给出现短缺的端倪。“先老”导致的劳动力供给下降与“未富”带来的大量劳动力需求,将可能形成比较优势的真空。这种趋势对现有的经济增长方式以及相应的就业和社会保障政策提出严峻挑战。为应对劳动力短缺的局面,保持中国经济发展的可持续性,应未雨绸缪,包括最大化开发人口红利、加大人力资本积累力度、选择可持续的养老保障模式,清除劳动力流动障碍、转变经济增长方式等。     

浅析我国社保基金保值增值运行状况

社保基金关系民生,是老百姓未来生活的保障金,它的保值增值尤为重要,因此,如何规避投资风险,通过合适的投资渠道实现社保基金的安全、保值和增值,成为社保基金运用的一个核心问题。本文通过对目前我国社保基金保值增值运行中各种投资手段的比较分析,提出完善委托投资机制,扩大投资范围,调整资产结构,促进投资多元化的建议,以达到分散投资、规避投资风险的目的。     

Welfare State, Market Imperfections, and International Trade

Within a two-sector-two-country model of trade with aggregate scale economies and unionisation, a more generous welfare state in one country increases welfare in that country and can have positive spillover effects on the other. Furthermore, synchronised expansions of social security are more welfare enhancing than unilateral ones. Our results counter the fears that a race to the bottom in social standards may result from the ‘shrinking-tax-base’ entailed by international capital mobility. While affecting trade patterns and income distribution, capital mobility interacts with welfare state policies in increasing welfare, even when capital flows out of the country that initiates the shock.

二元老年社会保障体制的尴尬与对策研究

我国面临着严峻的人口老龄化挑战已是一个不争的事实,同时让我们必须正视的是农村人口老龄化程度远远高于城市,但农村老年社会保障却与城市相差甚远,呈二元结构。本文以《中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查》研究报告数据为基础,对我国城市和农村的老年人口的养老保障、医疗保障、社会福利、为老服务等方面进行了对比分析,并在此基础上对解决途径进行探讨。     

Estimating the future health care cost of population aging in South Africa

ABSTRACT

This paper analyses the relationship between health care expenditure and population aging in South Africa using yearly data from 1983 to 2015. Empirical evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach to cointegration indicates that old dependency and life expectancy are major drivers of public health expenditure in South Africa besides the income. Particularly, when structural breaks are controlled for, income exhibits a long-term elasticity with respect to health spending greater than unity; suggesting that South African public health care has become a luxury good over time. Interestingly, South African public health spending is found to be responsive to demographic development only in the long run. This is consistent with the micro evidence that health expenditure increases with individual age with significant impacts in the long term. Finally, using economic and demographic projections statistics, we find that public health expenditure could roughly double in the next fifteen years ceteris paribus.