A low quality–high cost–low satisfaction trap in public health care: a model and an efficiency-quality-welfare improving stochastic resolution

This paper develops an applied stochastic model of public health care and shows that the public health care sector in Turkey is plagued by a low quality–high cost–low satisfaction trap which has been persistent over time. The values in question are shown to be stochastically stable. We formulate an efficiency-quality-welfare improving stochastic policy rule, which helps the sector to reach a selected target and which stabilizes quality, cost and welfare around that target.     

Stochastic error specification in primal and dual production systems

In this paper we derive both primal and dual‐cost systems in which the stochastic specifications arise from the model (random environment or measurement errors and optimization errors)—not tacked on at the end after the deterministic system is worked out. Derivation of the error structures is based on cost‐minimizing behavior on the firms. The primal systems constitute the production function and the first‐order conditions of cost minimization. We consider two dual‐cost systems. The first dual system is based on the cost function and cost share equations. The second dual system is based on a multiplicative general error production model that is an alternative to McElroy's additive general error production model. Our multiplicative general error model gives a clear and intuitive economic meaning to the error components. The resulting cost system is easy to estimate compared to the alternative cost systems. The error components in the multiplicative general error model can capture heterogeneity in the technology parameters even in a cross‐sectional model. Panel data are not necessary to estimate either the primal or dual systems. The models are estimated using data on 72 fossil fuel‐fired steam electric power generation plants (observed for the period 1986–1999) in the USA. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do interest rate options contain information about excess returns?

There is strong empirical evidence that long-term interest rates contain a time-varying risk premium. Options may contain valuable information about this risk premium because their prices are sensitive to the underlying interest rates. We use the joint time series of swap rates and interest rate option prices to estimate dynamic term structure models. The risk premiums that we estimate using option prices are better able to predict excess returns for long-term swaps over short-term swaps. Moreover, in contrast to the previous literature, the most successful models for predicting excess returns have risk factors with stochastic volatility. We also show that the stochastic volatility models we estimate using option prices match the failure of the expectations hypothesis.     

基于信息技术的再制造系统优化模型

由于回收产品的质量各不相同,因此,从回收产品中获取可用于再制造的零部件数量(即回收率)是随机的。然而,先进的信息技术有助于降低这种不确定性,使得企业能够作出更加准确的再制造决策。文中通过模型和实例论证,阐述在随机回收率情况下,信息技术对于优化再制造系统的作用。     

Efficiency analysis in the presence of uncertainty

In a stochastic decision environment, differences in information can lead rational decision makers facing the same stochastic technology and the same markets to make different production choices. Efficiency and productivity measurement in such a setting can be seriously and systematically biased by the manner in which the stochastic technology is represented. For example, conventional production frontiers implicitly impose the restriction that information differences have no effect on the way risk-neutral decision makers utilize the same input bundle. The result is that rational and efficient ex ante production choices can be mistakenly characterized as inefficient—informational differences are mistaken for differences in technical efficiency. This paper uses simulation methods to illustrate the type and magnitude of empirical errors that can emerge in efficiency analysis as a result of overly restrictive representations of production technologies.     

上市公司财务欺诈行为的经济学分析

本文从上市公司投资方与管理层之间的信息不对称,分析了管理层的道德风险问题,通过对现行会计审计制度进行分析后发现,注册会计师的行为仍然存在道德风险。认为通过适当增加信息成本可以在一定程度上改变信息弱势,即只有增加信息成本而不是压缩才能解决信息不对称带来的问题。且上市公司和旧车市场等因信息不对称所产生的问题都可以得到解决。     

Transfer prices and incentive contracts in vertically-integrated divisionalized companies

This paper studies a divisionalized firm with sequential transfers in which central management wants to motivate two division managers who receive predecision information. Central management can only contract on the observables price, cost and quantity. Starting with the optimal compensation schemes as a benchmark, the paper considers the question whether using transfer prices to substitute for price and cost, respectively, can replicate the optimal solution or not. This is to say, whether using an aggregate measure comes at a loss. The results are dependent on the design constraints (i) single or ‘dual’ transfer prices and (ii) simultaneous design of the reward functions or exogenously given reward functions. Basically, only in the case that central management is restricted to given reward functions, and wants to use the same single transfer price for both divisions, there is a loss relative to the benchmark solution. In the other cases, generally, there is enough latitude to design the available functions to mimic the benchmark. The paper goes on to discuss special cases. First, it finds conditions when purely cost-based transfer prices are optimal, and second, it derives explicit solutions for given linear compensation schemes over divisional book profits.     

Social decision rules are not immune to conflict

Why is rent-seeking so endemic in societies? Might it not be possible to design a Pareto-improving social decision rule that sidesteps the inefficient waste of resources resulting from conflict? We study this question for a multi-player contest. We assume that a benevolent planner knows the winning payoffs, the effectiveness of each rent-seeker, that the cost of expending resources is isoelastic, and that it is the same across all players. But she does not know the precise value of this elasticity. We show that this minimal lack of information leads to the impossibility of a Pareto-improving social decision rule, as long as there are at least four agents. Received: June 1999 / Accepted: January 24, 2000     

Overcoming barriers to sustainability: an explanation of residential builders' reluctance to adopt clean technologies

The construction industry has great opportunities to significantly reduce CO₂ emissions by improving the energy efficiency of residential buildings. However, in this industry, diffusion of cost‐effective clean technologies has been notoriously slow and below potential. This paper sheds light on factors that explain why construction companies have been reluctant to adopt energy‐efficient technologies. It questions why some companies have intensified their investments in clean technologies, while others are lagging behind. Based on a multiple case study of four Dutch building contractors, the paper shows that contractors that actively gather information and build internal technical capacity are keener on adopting energy‐efficient technologies. Findings also reveal that it will be a major challenge for the construction industry to communicate the advantages of clean technologies to (potential) home buyers and create market demand. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

区域物流信息网络构建

区域物流信息网络是区域物流发展中的重要平台,构建一个高效的区域物流信息网络是物流发展中的关键。文章从三个方面对这个问题进行了阐述,首先阐述了构建区域物流网络的目标和原则,其次对区域物流网络的总体架构进行了分析,最后分析了构建区域物流网络的关键技术。     

Pitfalls in the estimation of a cost function that ignores allocative inefficiency: A Monte Carlo analysis

In the stochastic frontier literature, it is a widely held view that allocative inefficiency can be lumped together with technical inefficiency in the estimation of cost frontiers. Therefore, a one-sided error term in the cost function is believed to capture the cost of overall (technical plus allocative) inefficiency. In this paper we challenge that view through a detailed Monte Carlo investigation. The results show that failure to include the cost of allocative inefficiency explicitly in the cost function biases the estimates of: (i) the cost function parameters, (ii) returns to scale, (iii) input price elasticities, and (iv) cost-inefficiency.     

Posting,quoting, and replying: a comparison of methodological approaches to measure communication ties in web forums

Active involvement in discussion-based communities is nowadays a firm part of people’s online activities. The measurement of communication ties and networks between contributors to such domains is thus becoming a relevant research question in social sciences. However, especially in web forums, very often almost no direct relational information exists that would indicate the presence of communication ties among contributors. In contrast with the reply-to structure of Usenet newsgroup or mailing list conversations that contain explicit relational information created by the contributors, some web forums only enable participants to add new posts to threads or to quote preceding posts in threads. When discussions emerge, it is difficult to identify who is replying to whom. Drawing on the social network studies dealing with the conversational patterns in Usenet and web forums, this paper presents an alternative approach to identifying the ties between authors of posts. Several assumptions are discussed, and different measures are developed and empirically evaluated. The findings provide a starting point for the development of a standardized methodology for studying social networks in online communities where only limited direct information about communication ties is available.     

Solid waste planning under uncertainty using evolutionary simulation-optimization

A key aspect of effective public planning design is to minimize the impact of negative outcomes that can arise from the violation of pre-established system constraint criteria. These planning situations can be especially complicated when several components within the studied system are either unknown or contain considerable stochastic uncertainty. In this paper, the concept of outcome minimization through the use of penalty functions is combined with grey programming (GP) into an evolutionary simulation-optimization (ESO) procedure in order to solve solid waste management problems containing significant sources of uncertainty. By employing outcome minimization concurrently with GP and ESO, it can be shown that plans that meet, or come close to meeting, required system criteria can be efficiently created. The efficacy of the procedure is demonstrated through its application to a solid waste planning case from the Municipality of Hamilton-Wentworth in the Province of Ontario, Canada. Since ESO techniques can be adapted to a wide variety of problem types in which some or all of the system components are stochastic, the practicality of this approach can be adapted to many operational and strategic planning situations containing significant sources of uncertainty.     

生鲜食品的二级补货系统优化研究

针对连锁超市的配送网络。建立一个两级的库存系统模型，其中包括一个中心仓库和若干门店，每个门店面对的是随机的相互独立的需求，该需求服从正态分布。该库存系统是采用基于连续检测的再订货点方法管理。本文针对超市的生鲜食品补货的特征，增加对于过剩成本的考虑，采用分散库存控制权的方法，按照从门店到配送中心的思路。优化总库存成本，从而得出最佳的订购批量，同时也得出最佳的产品供给水平、再订货点等。     

随机需求下销售周期对零售商绩效影响的仿真分析

运用系统动力学方法构建了包含市场需求、企业生产、劳动力和库存管理的一级供应链运作模型。通过灵敏度和优化分析仿真技术研究了随机需求下产品销售周期对零售商成本、利润和供应链牛鞭效应的影响。结论显示,与生产成本和劳动力成本相比,库存成本对产品销售周期的变化更敏感;在不考虑生产启动成本情况下,随着销售周期增大,总利润呈线性递减;连续库存补充计划比传统的经济订货批量模式能够为企业带来更多的利润,更有利于减弱牛鞭效应的影响。     

Productivity Measurement from a Reference Technology: A Distance Function Approach

An approach to productivity measurement based on distance function measurement is developed in this paper. A series of reference technologies are constructed by augmenting observed inputs and outputs such that the resulting effective netputs are consistent with the weak axiom of profit maximization. Geometric means of year-ahead and year-back distance function values serve as measures of multifactor productivity changes. Both primal measures from the inner bound and dual measures from the outer bound of the reference technologies are calculated. Resulting productivity measures are similar to those derived using index number approaches, but potentially provide greater information regarding the reference technologies.     

库存成本约束下的供应链协调研究

在随机需求下,库存协调研究的核心是达到供应链整体成本的最小化,文中在考虑库存持有成本和缺货惩罚成本的情况下构建了基于供应商和零售商的基准库存水平的成本函数,在此基础上分别比较了集中决策和分散博弈下的纳什均衡最优情况。然后给出一个线性转移支付契约来达到整个供应链的协调,实现了库存成本在销售层面的任意分配。     

GDP forecasts: Informational asymmetry of the SPF and FOMC minutes

This paper emphasizes asymmetric information about the U.S. economy between the FOMC and SPF. Following Stekler and Symington (2016), it extends their text-based FOMC minutes index (FMI) of economic outlook to 1986-2016. Following Ericsson (2016), it employs truncation adjustment indicators and reinterprets the FMI calibrations as the policy-makers forecasts of the GDP growth, which carry information about the staff Greenbook forecasts prepared prior to the bi-quarterly FOMC meetings. Tests confirm unbiasedness and rationality of these forecasts. The encompassing tests indicate that both the FMI and SPF forecasts contain unique information beyond their alternative’s information set and can be weighted equally. The orthogonality tests suggest that the SPF efficiently use all their information set but could gain if the FOMC minutes were published without a lag, while the policy-makers rely mostly on their projections made earlier in the meetings, and could benefit from incorporating the already published SPF forecasts.     

Information Technology and the Organization of Firms

This paper seeks to understand why improved information technology (IT) might strengthen the case for decentralization, as recent empirical work suggests. We study a firm with a headquarters and two managers, each of whom gathers information about her changing local environment. The firm earns a gross profit that depends on actions taken as well as the current local environments. More information permits better actions, and information‐gathering costs drop as IT improves. When the firm is centralized, information‐gathering expenditures are first best, but after the firm decentralizes, each manager becomes a self‐interested player of a “sharing game” in which she collects a share of gross profit and bears the cost of her chosen information‐gathering activities. The firm's actions are determined by the information gathered at the equilibria of the game. As a result, the firm experiences a decentralization penalty, namely the change in net profit (gross profit minus informational costs) after decentralizing. If the penalty is small, then it is outweighed by the advantages of decentralizing—the vanishing of monitoring costs and perhaps the improved motivation of a decentralized manager's staff. To gather information a manager chooses (once and for all) a partitioning of her possible local environments and then searches to find the set in which her current environment lies. Our main measure of a manager's information cost is a technology parameter, θ, times the number of sets in her chosen partitioning. A second measure is θ times the partitioning's “Shannon content,” which may be interpreted as average search time when search is efficient. We ask whether improved IT, i.e., a drop in θ, indeed lowers the decentralization penalty. We obtain a strongly affirmative answer to this question for both cost measures in a class of examples and a mixed answer when we generalize so as to preserve some of the key properties of those examples. In a parallel manner we explore another conjecture suggested in the empirical literature, namely that better IT raises the coordination benefit, which we define as the increase in net profit when the firm bases its actions on pooled information, rather than letting each action variable depend on the information gathered by just one manager.     

中小企业融资与民营中小银行的优势

在我国当前的经济运行中,由于某些方面的原因,存在着中小企业特别是民营企业融资难的问题。本文从信息不对称、交易成本及国有银行的经营机制三方面分析了产生这一问题主要原因,并论述了民营中小银行在解决这一问题中的优势,从而提出在我国金融领域应该大力发展民营银行。