Farmers, Vertical Coordination, and the Restructuring of Dairy Supply Chains in Central and Eastern Europe

The combination of transition and globalization since the early 1990s has caused dramatic changes in the dairy chains in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper uses survey evidence from several Central and East European countries to document the growth of vertical coordination in the dairy chain, its relationship with policy reforms, its effects and the implications for small farms. Evidence suggests that in several countries small dairy farms have benefited from vertical coordination processes by providing them access to inputs and higher value markets.     

基于经济增长的新疆减贫效果趋势分析

经济增长和减贫一直是发展中国家和地区制定发展战略所考虑的重点。改革开放初期,新疆通过经济增长极大地降低了农村贫困,经济增长的减贫效果显著;20世纪80年代中后期至2010年,由于经济增长的质量下降和收入不平等程度增加,减贫趋势变缓;2011年以后,随着援疆工作和民生工程的不断推进,高速的经济增长和对贫困人口有利的收入分配对减贫起到了良好的效果,经济增长出现了益贫性特征。纵观改革开放至今,新疆减贫成就的主要原因是经济持续的高速增长、人力资本的明显改善和政府采取的反贫困行动;而其减贫趋势放缓的原因是农村经济增长质量的下降和农村收入分配的不断恶化。为此,本文认为新时期扶贫工作中,新疆应实施益贫式增长战略。从生产领域着手,在增加就业的同时通过增加穷人的资产基础以提高穷人的自我发展能力,而政府在打造民生工程时应注重市场机制,以保持减贫的可持续性。     

The role of the Chinese economy in the world economy: A U.S. perspective

In this paper I first review the amazing progress that free market economic reforms have brought to the Chinese people after years of central control and suppression of markets. Thanks to greater economic freedom, economic growth increased sharply and hundreds of millions of people have been removed from poverty. By all accounts, however, economic freedom in China has a long way to go. The U.S. perspective should be that these market reforms continue. These further reforms toward economic freedom and economic growth in China will be beneficial to the United States. Such reforms would include a greater transparency about the monetary policy strategies, more openness of the capital accounts and less exchange rate and stock market intervention. Such economic reforms should be welcomed and encouraged by the United States and other countries.     

Economic growth,inequality, and poverty in Vietnam

This study examines how poverty reduction has been associated with economic growth and inequality in Vietnam. It finds that although the speed of poverty reduction was lower in the 2000s than in the 1990s, economic growth was more pro‐poor in the latter period. During the 1993–98 period, expenditure inequality increased and the poverty reduction during this period was mainly caused by economic growth. During the 2004–08 period, however, expenditure inequality decreased, thereby contributing to poverty reduction. The poverty incidence declined by around 5 percentage points, of which expenditure growth and redistribution contributed 2.8 and 2.2 percentage points of poverty reduction, respectively.     

Poverty Alleviation in the People's Republic of China: The Implications for Sino–African Cooperation in Poverty Reduction

Abstract: In the last thirty years, remarkable achievements have been made in China's poverty reduction course. The dramatic fall in China's poor can be attributed mainly to a high rate of economic growth, government poverty reduction policies and targeted programmes and pro‐poor macroeconomic and industrial policies. This paper focuses on China's poverty reduction policies and programmes and their impact on the poor regions and poor households. Lessons are drawn for poverty reduction and economic development in African countries. The paper also explores the potential for collaboration in poverty reduction between China and African countries and recommendations are made for the governments and donor agencies.     

Rural Labor Migration and Poverty Reduction in China

Using various sources of data, this paper examines the contributions of rural labor migration to economic growth and poverty reduction in China. The results show that there is still a significant number of people living in poverty in rural areas, while the effectiveness of migration on poverty reduction has declined, implying an urgent need for new approaches to poverty reduction. China's experiences could also be valuable for the formulation of development strategies in other developing countries.     

Can the World Cut Poverty in Half? How Policy Reform and Effective Aid Can Meet International Development Goals

Poverty in the developing world will decline by about one-half by 2015 if the trends of the 1990s persist. Most of this poverty reduction will occur in Asia, however, while poverty will decline only slightly in Africa. Effective aid could make a contribution to greater poverty reduction in lagging regions. Even more potent would be significant policy reform in these countries. We develop a model of efficient aid in which flows respond to policy improvements that create a better environment for poverty reduction and effective aid. We investigate scenarios of policy reform and efficient aid that point the way to how the world can cut poverty in half in every major region.     

Do International Remittances Affect Poverty in Africa?*

Abstract: International remittances flowing into developing countries are attracting increasing attention because of their rising volume and their impact on recipient countries. This paper uses a panel data set on poverty and international remittances for African countries to examine the impact of international remittances on poverty reduction in 33 African countries over the period 1990–2005. We find that international remittances—defined as the share of remittances in country GDP—reduce the level, depth, and severity of poverty in Africa. But the size of the poverty reduction depends on how poverty is being measured. After instrumenting for the possible endogeneity of international remittances, we find that a 10 percent increase in official international remittances as a share of GDP leads to a 2.9 percent decline in the poverty headcount or the share of people living in poverty. Also, the more sensitive poverty measures—the poverty gap (poverty depth) and squared poverty gap (poverty severity)—suggest that international remittances will have a similar impact on poverty reduction. The point estimates for the poverty gap and squared poverty gap suggest that a 10 percent increase in the share of international remittances will lead to a 2.9 percent and 2.8 percent decline, respectively, in the depth and severity of poverty in African countries. Regardless of the measure of poverty used as the dependent variable, income inequality (Gini index) has a positive and significant coefficient, indicating that greater inequality is associated with higher poverty in African countries, much in conformity with the literature. Similar results were obtained for trade openness. In the same vein, per capita income has a negative and significant effect on each measure of poverty used in the study. Our results also show that inflation rates positively and significantly affect poverty incidence, depth and severity in Africa. In all three poverty measures, the dummy variable for sub‐Saharan Africa is strongly positive, and strongly negative for North Africa. The policy implications of these results are discussed.     

Distance to Growing Markets and Sub‐Saharan African Exports*

Abstract: A typical person in sub‐Saharan Africa is a long way from world markets and is further from world markets now than in 1980. This partly reflects slower growth within Africa than for the world as a whole. Despite slower growth in Africa, African exports have become increasingly regionalized. By 2005, a country in Africa typically exported more than twice as much to a country in its own region as would be expected based on economic size and bilateral distance. This regionalization was not present in the early 1980s and has become stronger over time. We find evidence of positive neighborhood effects through exports, but sub‐Saharan countries benefit less from growth in their own region than this typical relationship indicates. Given the small share of exports destined to their neighbors, low‐income countries in sub‐Saharan Africa experience relatively modest export growth from growth in the region. These factors imply that African countries are unlikely to pull each other out of poverty and a regional focus may be less effective than a focus on countries outside of the region.     

External Shocks and the HIPC Initiative: Impacts on Growth and Poverty in Africa

Abstract: The paper uses a simple macroeconomic model to estimate the impact of debt relief and terms of trade shocks on growth and poverty in African countries. For the 18 heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) that reached the enhanced HIPC decision point by end‐December 2000, the basic quantitative findings are that HIPC debt relief has boosted economic growth in these countries by an average of 2.9 percent per annum and that the computed result of this increase in growth is a reduction in poverty by an average of 2.2 percent per annum. However, the paper shows that recent deteriorations in the terms of trade have counter‐balanced these positive effects by lowering growth by an average of 2.0 percent per annum and by increasing poverty by an average of 1.3 percent per annum. Clearly, much of the positive impact emanating from the HIPC Initiative has been eroded due to recent deteriorations in the terms of trade. The paper also estimates the net effect on growth and poverty of the recently agreed 100 percent multilateral debt relief. This is predicted to boost economic growth by an average of 5 percent per annum and reduce poverty by about 5.3 percent per annum for the group of all African HIPCs. The paper concludes that 100 percent debt relief is crucial for Africa, but that more aid and policies need to be focused on a long‐term development strategy that fosters the necessary structural transformation.     

基于金融周期视角下股票市场的联动效应研究

世界经济全球化已成为趋势,发达经济体的股市之间以及发达经济体与新兴经济体股市之间的联动性也在经济全球化的趋势中更加紧密。各国金融领域以及金融市场间的快速融合,不断形成统一规范的金融行为准则,也使得全球金融周期性特征越来越明显。文章选取世界五个主要股票市场指数为研究对象,按照已有研究对全球金融周期的划分,将该样本区间分成了繁荣期、衰退期和正常期三个阶段,然后基于这三个阶段分析了在不同金融周期五国股票市场指数收益率联动效应。基于实证研究结论,认为美国和欧洲股市联动性较强,与亚洲股市联动性相对较弱,且美国和中国股市之间联动性最弱,基本捕捉不到下尾相关。相关实证结论有利于国际投资者的投资组合管理,也有助于各国股票市场的风险规避。     

全球化、经济增长与南北差异——基于KOF指数的实证研究

基于反映全球化水平的KOF指数,选取54个国家1995~2009年的面板数据,对全球化与经济增长进行了实证研究,结果显示,全球化对经济增长起到促进作用,但存在＂倒U型＂关系。发展中国家比发达国家从全球化中获得了更大的红利,这个结果从实证上解释了Bhagwati提出的发达国家比发展中国家更加反对全球化这一现象的原因。基于全球化与经济增长的关系,我国应该进一步提高全球化水平、同时兼顾经济增长的国内动力因素。     

Bank market power, economic growth and financial stability: Evidence from Asian banks

This paper examines whether Asian banks are still prone to moral hazard in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian crisis. Using a sample of commercial banks from 12 Asian countries during the 2001–2007 period, our empirical findings highlight that greater market power in the banking market results in higher instability. Although banks are better capitalized in less competitive markets their default risk remains higher. A deeper investigation however shows that such behaviour is dependent on the economic environment. Higher economic growth contributes to neutralize greater risk taking and higher instability in less competitive markets.     

Does Allocation of Public Spending Matter in Poverty Reduction? Evidence from Thailand*

The present paper uses a panel dataset to estimate the marginal returns to different types of government expenditure on agricultural growth and rural poverty reduction in Thailand. The study finds that additional government spending on agricultural research provides the largest return in terms of agricultural productivity and has the second largest impact on rural poverty reduction. Increased investment in rural electrification has the largest poverty reduction impact, mainly through improved nonfarm employment. Rural education has the third largest impact on both productivity and poverty reduction. Irrigation has a positive impact on agricultural productivity, but regional variation is considerable. Government spending on rural roads has no significant impact on agricultural productivity and its poverty reduction impact ranks last among all investment alternatives considered. Additional investment in the Northeast Region has a greater impact on poverty reduction than in other regions.     

腐败控制、私人部门参与基础设施提供与反贫困效应——来自发展中国家的经验证据(1996-2014)

惩治腐败和消除贫困始终是广大发展中国家面临的重要任务。文章基于1996年到2014年138个发展中国家的数据，探索了腐败控制降低一国贫困率的新机制，即促进私人部门参与基础设施提供。我们发现：第一，腐败控制显著促进了私人部门参与基础设施提供；第二，私人部门参与基础设施提供显著降低了发展中国家的贫困率；第三，"中介效应"分析显示，腐败控制是通过促进私人部门参与基础设施提供进而降低一国贫困率的。文章的发现是对发展中国家腐败与贫困关系研究的一个有益补充，不但有助于理解私人部门参与基础设施提供的制度基础，也有助于发展中国家设计反贫困的公共政策。     

精准扶贫、媒体关注度和技术创新的关系研究

基于利益相关者理论、资源依赖性理论以及声誉机制理论,运用2016—2019年A股上市公司数据研究精准扶贫对技术创新的影响机理,并探究媒体关注度在精准扶贫与技术创新之间的调节作用。结果表明：精准扶贫能够促进企业技术创新;媒体关注度在精准扶贫与技术创新的关系中起正向调节作用,但这种作用只存在于非国有企业中。拓展发现,成长能力对精准扶贫与技术创新的关系起负向调节作用,即成长能力越好,精准扶贫对技术创新的作用越弱,成长能力越弱,精准扶贫对技术创新的作用越强。研究成果为提升企业技术创新提供了新思路,对理解媒体聚焦下精准扶贫行为产生的经济后果具有重要理论价值和现实意义。     

Revisiting the Impact of Consumption Growth and Inequality on Poverty in Indonesia during Decentralisation

This article analyses the consumption growth elasticity and inequality elasticity of poverty in Indonesia, with a particular focus on the decentralisation period. Using provincial panel data, we show that the effectiveness of growth in alleviating poverty across provinces was greater during decentralisation—that is, between 2002 and 2010—than at any other point since 1984. The growth elasticity of poverty since 2002 is estimated to have been –2.46, which means that a 10% increase in average consumption per capita would have reduced the poverty rate by almost 25%. However, we also find that rising income inequality negated a quarter to a third of the 5.7-percentage-point reduction in the headcount poverty rate. This increasing inequality has contributed to a lower level of pro-poor growth than that maintained in Indonesia before decentralisation.     

The Effect of the Liberalization of Investment Policies on Employment and Investment of Multinational Corporations in Africa

Abstract: There has been a remarkable shift in the attitudes towards globalization. Specifically, the discussion among academics and policymakers has shifted from whether globalization should be encouraged to how countries can position themselves to benefit from globalization. This paper focuses on one aspect of globalization — the liberalization of investment policies — and analyzes its impact on employment and investments by multinational corporations in Africa. We use data for 33 countries over the period 1984–2003 and we employ a dynamic panel estimator for our analysis. There are two major findings. First, liberalization has a significant and positive effect on investment. Second, liberalization does not have a direct impact on multinational employment — the effect is indirect: liberalization stimulates multinational investments which in turn increases multinational employment. By increasing investment and employment from multinational firms, these liberalization programs contribute to poverty alleviation.     

Agricultural Exports: Important Issues for Sub‐Saharan Africa

Abstract: The central argument of this paper is that African countries stand to benefit more from the goodwill currently being shown by industrialized countries who have committed themselves to further opening up of their markets for commodities from the region. However, more needs to be done by African governments and the international community if these benefits are to trickle down to the African farmers and result in attaining the goal of poverty reduction. This paper identifies the issues that need to be addressed by all parties involved. At the macro level, our results find that the distortion in the macro environment is a major factor hindering African exports. At the micro level, our results show that for farmers to benefit from the opening up of the international market, they would need more access to market information, easier road access to the markets for both their output and inputs, improve their farming techniques by utilizing modern scientific farming methods and inputs, and to increase their productivity. At the international level, our study finds strong results indicating that foreign tariff rate, price support (PNAC) and standards act as a market barrier to African agricultural exports.     

Conference Review

This review reports on a recent conference on spatial inequalities in Africa, held by the World Institute for Development Economics Research (WIDER). This international conference, the second in a series of five, covered the following topics: the extent of spatial patterns of income distribution and polarisation; growth, shocks and regional variations in poverty reduction; cities and labour markets in South Africa; rural-urban differences; spatial patterns of social networks, and finally, migration and regional inequality.